Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on Clinton v. Obama

This is a little old, but I'm just seeing it now. According to Gallup polling (via the Jewish Review of Portland, Oregon), Democrats of the Jewish faith are fairly evenly divided on their pick for the party's presidential nominee. Take a look at these numbers released March 24:

Jewish Democratic voters show a slight preference for Hillary Clinton (48%) over Barack Obama (43%) for the party's 2008 presidential nomination. The five-point Clinton advantage is within the margin of error for this sample of Jewish Democrats.

The data are based on interviews with 348 Jewish Democratic voters conducted in Gallup Poll Daily tracking in March. So far this month, all Democratic voters regardless of religious affiliation are equally divided (46% each) in their nomination preferences between Clinton and Obama.

Obama's ability to win votes in the U.S. Jewish community has been questioned, given suggestions that he does not support Israel as strongly as other candidates. Some of Obama's supporters (including the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, former pastor of Obama's church) and foreign policy advisers are regarded as anti-Israel. Obama has met with Jewish leaders to reassure them of his commitment to Israel.

There have been some implicit arguments that Obama would not do well among American Jews, a key constituency within the Democratic base (the roughly 2 percent of the electorate voted for Democratic over Republican House candidates in 2006 by a 87 percent to 12 percent margin, for instance). However, this Gallup polling makes clear that Americans of the Jewish faith within the Democratic Party are about as evenly divided as Democrats as a whole, with the difference between the two candidates falling within the poll's margin of error.

What does this all augur for the rest of the Democratic race? Only one remaining state, Pennsylvania, has a Jewish population that is somewhat sizable in relation to the overall population. In 2006, for instance, Jews were estimated to make up about 5 percent of Pennsylvanians going to the polls on election day, 78 percent of whom backed Bob Casey Jr. and 85 percent of whom backed Ed Rendell. I can't seem to find exit polling on the 2002 gubernatorial primary in the state (which happened to be between Rendell and Casey), the last seriously contested top-of-the-ballot Democratic primary in the state, in order to figure out just what percentage of the Democratic primary electorate tends to be of the Jewish faith, though I'd suppose that it wouldn't tell us a whole lot about the upcoming presidential primary in the Keystone state given that so many more voters will likely turn out this month than have turned out in the past. Regardless, it seems unlikely that Pennsylvania Jews will significantly tip the scales towards Clinton over Obama on April 22.

Regardless, the takeaway from these numbers seems to be this: There is little evidence to support the notion that Jewish American voters are unwilling to support Obama, and in fact it appears that Jewish Americans who are Democrats are divided by about the same margin as their party as a whole when it comes to choosing between Obama and Clinton.

Tags: Democratic primaries, Jewish Voters (all tags)

Comments

77 Comments

Barack The Vote, PA

# Ensure a Strong U.S.-Israel Partnership: Barack Obama strongly supports the U.S.-Israel relationship, believes that our first and incontrovertible commitment in the Middle East must be to the security of Israel, America's strongest ally in the Middle East. Obama supports this closeness, stating that that the United States would never distance itself from Israel.
# Support Israel's Right to Self Defense: During the July 2006 Lebanon war, Barack Obama stood up strongly for Israel's right to defend itself from Hezbollah raids and rocket attacks, cosponsoring a Senate resolution against Iran and Syria's involvement in the war, and insisting that Israel should not be pressured into a ceasefire that did not deal with the threat of Hezbollah missiles. He believes strongly in Israel's right to protect its citizens.
# Support Foreign Assistance to Israel: Barack Obama has consistently supported foreign assistance to Israel. He defends and supports the annual foreign aid package that involves both military and economic assistance to Israel and has advocated increased foreign aid budgets to ensure that these funding priorities are met. He has called for continuing U.S. cooperation with Israel in the development of missile defense systems.

http://www.barackobama.com/issues/foreig npolicy/#onisrael

by Andre X 2008-04-09 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Barack The Vote, PA

I'm dissapointed to learn that Obama opposed a cease fire during Israel's attack on Lebanon.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-04-09 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Marist Poll in New York shows Obama weakness

Against McCain & Rice. That's a pretty bold prediction. And doesn't take into account that there is fairly decent evidence that Rice is a lesbian. Think that might make people forget about Wright for awhile?

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

Sounds about right. I never bought into the notion that Jews wouldn't vote for Obama. The Muslim smear and all the shit about him being pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel is being spread and embraced by the same vocal minority of American Jews that consistently vote Republican. They said the same thing about Kerry.

by BlueGAinDC 2008-04-09 02:35PM | 0 recs
Jewish American Democrats...

All I can say is that I won't be voting for Obama and no one in my family is voting for Obama.

It has nothing to do with some muslim smear... and everything to do with Wright, 20 years attending a church that praises Farrakhan by giving him an award and last but not least Obama's choice of foreign policy advisers including Zbigniew Brzezinski, Robert Malley and Samantha Power.  Google & check out their views on Israel.

All this together sums up Obama's problems in the Jewish community.  I've learned with politicians that it's actions rather than words that are most meaningful.  I'm not moved by his words of support of Israel... not with these actions.

Just words...  

by goldilocks 2008-04-09 08:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

So by that logic you feel that his judgement in question. OK.

In your post, you also write: ". . . it's actions rather than words that are most meaningful." OK.

So what does it say about your actions and your judgement that you're willing to hand this country over to McCain?

by SFValues 2008-04-09 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

I for one want to hand it over to Hillary.  I don't trust Obama, and if I vote for McCain, it is because I will be relying on a heavily Democratic Congress.

by cjbardy 2008-04-09 08:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

Sorry pal... but I don't have to answer to you regarding my judgements on this issue... not when my parents are Holocaust Survivors & we are staunch defenders of Israel's right to exist...

by goldilocks 2008-04-09 09:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

As a Jew with grandparents who fled Germany, I recognize that one.  It's a tired way of justifying anything and cutting off conversation.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 12:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

Sad, really sad... that you don't have an appreciation for what your Jewish grandparents went through to get here to give you the freedoms you have.

Sounds like you just threw your grandparents under the bus...

by goldilocks 2008-04-10 04:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

I respect your opinion, and I know that I won't change it , but do you really feel that Barack Obama will actively  work against Israel as a President?

 Putting his pastor's words in his mouth is one thing,  (Even though I have listened to many of Wright's sermons and never heard anything anti-semitic)   but now you penalize Obama for his Pastor having a relationship with Farrakhan? Even though Obama has said in no uncertain terms that he wants nothing to do with Farrakhan, and he rejected and denounced his endorsement ?  
I read an op-ed not to long ago that tried to link  Farrakhan and Obama because Farrakhan lives in Barack's old senatorial district. I think that is a stretch and a little disingenuous.  

AS an outsider, to me it just seems like that you want an excuse not to vote for him, and that is your right of course.

I am an African-AMerican male that grew up in New York City. I had enough Jewish friends to know that they were not monolithic in thought especially when it came to the middle east. Some of  them had rabbis who actually said that the Gaza Strip should be dumped into the ocean. Obviously, most (but not all ) of my friends felt that was extreme. But that didn't stop them from attending  that synagogue because that did not encompaass all of what that rabbi taught.

When it comes to Obama, Farrakhan is a non-starter. There's nothing there. When it come to Wright, people really need to listen to his sermons in their entirety  before they pass judgement.

by xodus1914 2008-04-10 05:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

I didn't throw anyone under the bus.  I love them dearly.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 05:58AM | 0 recs
Ditto that [NT]

by cjbardy 2008-04-09 08:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

I'm sorry you feel that way. Personally, I'm not a one issue voter and it saddens me every time I come across a Jew that is one. Israel is important, but it has its own government and can take care of itself. To me, a vote for US president primarily based on Israel stance is not only dumb but insulting to Israelis. Talk to Israelis, they are a lot more critical of their own government than American Jews. They think its crazy that so many of us vote based on Israel as the only issue.

No matter who becomes President, our relationship with Israel will not change. I don't believe any of the candidates have any significant difference on Israel. But even if they did, if Obama was not in support of Israel, he would have no ability to change our relationship whatsoever with a congress that fully supports Israel.

Supporting John McCain by either voting for him or not voting at all is a vote to continue the Iraq war. As we all know, it is creating more terrorists in the region and creating more of a danger to Israel. If you vote to continue that war because of your own hatred for Obama, just remember that.

Obama has no problem with the Jewish community, because Jewish voters are smart enough to put aside guilt by association and understand that we are voting to elect Obama, not his pastor or his advisors. You want a President who surrounds himself with yes men, you've had GWB for the last 7 years.

For the sake of this country and the state of Israel I hope you reevaluate your distaste for Obama and end up making a decision based on the candidate himself. The most ironic thing about your post is that you say you don't care about Obama's words, yet eveything you mentioned in opposition to Obama just had to do with other people's words. The people you mentioned never fought against Israel, they just used their words.

by BlueGAinDC 2008-04-10 05:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats...

These are the same things I am hearing from Jewish Dems that I know.

by kydem 2008-04-10 06:10AM | 0 recs
Is this really about Religion?

Any other demographic information, like age breakdown?

The Jewish folks I know are breaking, as are a lot of democrats, along the age fault line.

Over 50, heavily Clinton.  Between 50-40, mixed.

Under 40, mostly Obama.

Really, in all this demographic parsing, is that the over-riding message?

Is this is a generational battle, a changing of the guard, just as Kennedy's was in the 60s.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-09 02:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Is this really about Religion?

Among Jews who heavily identify themselves as such, there are, what I call "old Dews" and "new Dews".  The Old Jews are the ones who were, if not marxists, heavily invested in social justice and veterans of the civil rights movement.  Michael Lerner comes out of that school.  They are a minority.

The New Jews are all about Israel.  That's the sine-qua-non of all political decision for them.  Most of my family friends are New Jews.  They're a majority.  HOWEVER....

Most Jews don't really self-identify much.  They tend to be politically liberal.  They would probably show a slight preference for Obama.

That's my two cents.  I'll tell you one thing though - in the Ohio debate, when Obama was asked about Farrakhan and cut off Tim Russert who was about to quote him and said "I know, I know what he's said.  Look, I would not be here if it wasn't for the Jews who were in the forefront of the civil rights movement" he won himself a lot of votes.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 12:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Is this really about Religion?

...and, that's "Jews", not "Dews".

by Mostly 2008-04-10 12:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

As a Jew and an Obama supporter, I've been saying this all along.

And particularly if you keep in mind that Jews are, you know, white, it turns out that Obama pulls a higher portion of Jews than other white voters.

And in my experience, Jews in almost all demographic categories go for Obama at a higher level than even 48-43% implies -- it's just that there are so very, very many elderly Jewish ladies in nursing homes, and they go for Hillary.

Obama doesn't have a Jewish problem. Ask anybody in the Jewish community and they'll tell you that's ridiculous. Jews are much savvier voters than most blocs, and not prone to falling for chain emails.

by Gimmeliberty 2008-04-09 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

I agree.  We don't fall for chain mail and are high-information voters.  That is why I don't support Obama.

by cjbardy 2008-04-09 08:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

It's funny that you mention chain-emails.  I swear, my mother has made it her full-time job to refute, one by one, all the "Obama has muslim blood" or whatever chain emails she gets.  Whenever I visit, she calls me over to show me what she's written in response, all proud of herself.  It's cute.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 01:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats

I think the numbers out of other states were roughly similar: a slight edge for Hillary, but not much. I'd count that as a good thing that this particular demographic isn't lined up on one side of the other between the two candidates.

The 87-12 number in 2006 is pretty impressive. I think that's a shift toward the Dems of late, which is great.

by dmc2 2008-04-09 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats

No, we've been voting pretty consistently Democratic for quite a while.  The reason the Republicans are pro-Israel is for all those evangelicals who want to put us in Israel; I don't not all evangelicals just there is a large group who do who give money.

I've met about 2-3 Jewish Republicans and that's after 25 years of being a Jew.  This discussion actually reminds of when my brother voted for Nader in 2000.  My entire family gave him such shit for it.

by nklein 2008-04-09 03:09PM | 0 recs
No doubt
The reason the Republicans are pro-Israel is for all those evangelicals who want to put us in Israel
No doubt about that. And they also want to 'perfect' the Jews. In other words, make them Christians. The radical right only loves the Jews so they can bring about the end of the World according to Revelation, or their interpretation of it. The 'left behinders' love Jews like a fat kind loves cake.
by DaveDial 2008-04-09 04:27PM | 0 recs
It's great to see

It's great to see that Jewish voters aren't buying into the smears that some right-wingers are trying to spread around.

Senator Obama's views on Israel are on his website for all to view. http://www.barackobama.com/issues/foreig npolicy/#onisrael

I am one of the first members of tolerance.org and a long time SPLC and ADL contributer, the people I know are well aware of the smears and 'guilt by association' BS and are offended that anyone believes that they would buy the tinfoil hat crap.

by DaveDial 2008-04-09 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: It's great to see

Exactly; you can't pull that kind of crap in the Jewish community. Jews tend to be high-information voters. That's the greatest weapon against smear campaigns.

by Gimmeliberty 2008-04-09 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: It's great to see

I can tell you I don't buy a lot of the crap that came out about whether he salutes the flag or is a Muslim, but I am very skeptical about his support for Israel, which was conveniently developed in anticipation for this campaign

by cjbardy 2008-04-09 08:52PM | 0 recs
That's not true at all
Senator Obama has long been a supporter of Israel. His policies towards her have not changed, and his earliest supporters in Illinois were people of the Jewish faith. Longtime Obama supporter Rabbi Sam Gordon states the truth clearly. What's trying to being done to Senator Obama is shameful. The 'guilt by association' is used only because there is nothing that he has said or done that can in any way be associated with soft support of Israel or anti-Semitic. You state:
I am very skeptical about his support for Israel, which was conveniently developed in anticipation for this campaign
which it totaly false and has no factual basis at all. Why even spread such filth when you do not have the true facts? I can appreciate passionate support for Senator Clinton, however, I cannot condone such gutter tactics as spreading lies, innuednos and 'guilt by association' when they are knowingly false.
by DaveDial 2008-04-10 04:02AM | 0 recs
Who are you to tell me that what I state as my

opinion is not my true opinion?

Lets go through the statement of mine that you quoted:

"I am very skeptical about his support for Israel...."  

Are you saying that I am lying about my skepticsm about Obama's position on this issue?

I continued with  "...which was conveniently developed in anticipation for this campaign".  

That  part of the statement is my conclusion/opinion.   I assumed that the people who read and write on this blog would have the intelligence to understand, what I mean, without me having to insert the words "in my opinion".

A conclusion/opinion  is different from a fact.  You in fact, even state that "it is totally false and has no factual basis whatsoever."  I am assuming that "it" is my conclusion.

On that note, I would also note that "longtime Obama supporter Rabbi Sam Gordon" is stating HIS OPINION, which apparently you share.  That does not make it the TRUTH.

Moving on, why is my conclusion/opinion "filth" that I am not allowed to spread?  I thought this was a forum in which we could express our opinion.  I didn't call Obama any names nor spread any lies.

In the same vein, why is stating my opinion employing  "gutter tactics as spreading lies, innuendos and 'guilt by association' when they are knowingly false?

Who did I make a false association with?

Wait, I understand what you are upset about.  You didn't like that I have a negative opinion about Obama the messiah.

I really don't need you to condone anything I believe.

by cjbardy 2008-04-10 05:46PM | 0 recs
I just listened to the Rabbi you quoted.

He was addressing that garbage about Obama being alleged to be a muslim and being sworn in on a Koran.  That is "gutter trash" which I stated at the outset "I didn't buy".  

Why don't you read what is written before you attack someone?  It will keep you from slandering others in the same way you claim Obama has been slandered.

by cjbardy 2008-04-10 06:17PM | 0 recs
Re: I just listened to the Rabbi you quoted.

The point wasn't your 'opinion'. It was the FACT that Senator Obama has been strong on Israeli policy since his political career.

That's not opinion, it's fact. Which was the point I was making.

You can't have an 'opinion' that Obama's REAL policies are not his own without any facts. Otherwise it's just smears.

You stated:

I am very skeptical about his support for Israel, which was conveniently developed in anticipation for this campaign

That's not opinion, it's factualy incorrect. His support of Israel was not 'developed in anticipation for this campaign', he has always been supportive of Israel.

by DaveDial 2008-04-11 04:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

A Democrat...is a Democrat...is a Democrat...

by nogo war 2008-04-09 02:45PM | 0 recs
Thank You

Thank you!  I've been really disgusted with that prejudiced meme that had been spread by such organizations as the AP.

by nklein 2008-04-09 02:48PM | 0 recs
Sorry to disagree

But I don't know one Jew who is an Obama supporter.  But believe whatever you want.

by izarradar 2008-04-09 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorry to disagree

You just replied to one.

by nklein 2008-04-09 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorry to disagree

I probably think that is why this survey was done of Jews at random, not just "Jews you know personally"?

I think it might be a more statistical valid distribution that way.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-09 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorry to disagree

It's amazing that so many Hillary supporters say they only know people who support Hillary. Like how all the people in their office hate Obama.

Not saying it isn't true, it just seems odd.

by vcalzone 2008-04-09 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorry to disagree

Uh, if you took a survey at my shul, I expect you'd get about 50-40-10 Obama-Clinton-McCain. It's a conservative, egalitarian congregation.

You should get out more.

by Twin Planets 2008-04-09 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Sorry to disagree

In mine, I would say its 55 Clinton, and about equal on the McCain/Obama support.  Mine is conservative, egalitarian also, and my Cantor is hoping to be a Clinton delegate.

by cjbardy 2008-04-09 08:50PM | 0 recs
Do you know any Jews?

by bobdoleisevil 2008-04-09 06:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

Aren't ALL Democrats largely divided on Clinton vs. Obama?

Hillary Can't Win
http://the-independent13.blogspot.com/20 08/03/clinton-vs-obama-stats.html

by tomanderson13 2008-04-09 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats

I'm Jewish, 60, female (I feel like this is my mantra on this site by now).  All of my friends are voting for Obama.  My mother likes him but voted for Hillary in the primary, but will happily vote for him in the GE.

By the way, he gave a wonderful heads up to the Jewish community in a speech a few years ago, where he honored Goodman, Schwerner and Cheney and the Jews who participated and risked their lives in the Civil Rights Movement.  You do not hear that much.  He also has a policy towards Israel that is thoroughly consistant with progressive American foreign policy.  

Anyway, you now know of some Jews who are delighted to be able to vote for Barack Obama.

by mady 2008-04-09 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats

Ugh, that's consistent not ant.

by mady 2008-04-09 04:24PM | 0 recs
I would like to see how much support Obama has

AFTER the 527 groups run ads showing the extremely anti-semetic writings of Obama's church, his numbers will only go down.

Obama's church states that "Jews have treated Palestinians worse than Jews were treated by the Nazis during the Holocaust".

There's a lot more where that came from. Our would-be nominee sat in attendance without uttering one word of protest or disagreement. Do we really want to run this man at the top of our ticket?

There is only one way Obama can adequately put the Wright controversy away. He will have to give a speech at a black church or other major black gathering and tell the audience that while racism still exists in the country, it is not the reason for poverty and crime in many Arican American communities. He will have to tell them that African Americans are largely responsible for their own plight and they must be the biggest part of the solution, althouth government can and should lend a hand.

If he has the cohonas to do that then he has a shot at the presidency. If he can't do that then the Republican's can take him down any time they want.

by mmorang 2008-04-09 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

Well, since he is going to be in the general against McCain, we have a LARGE selection of anti-jewish slander from the Relgious Right to choose from?

Oh, and Obama HAS spoken at Black Churches about Anti-Semitism, he did it in Martin Kings home Church at the memorial service but your other "Sister Soljah" ideas of laying it on the black folks, I think is probably not really neccesary?

The white folks that will be scared off that he is some kind of "affirmative action" candidate are mental toads, McCain will scare them with the Terrorist Boogieman anyway

Oh, one more thing, not only does he have "Cajones" but he has class and style, and he knows what's coming from the right, and he is ready on day one.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-09 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

What about crime, education and poverty in the African American community? Does Obama have any answers for those problems? Is he keeping it to himself?

He didn't have the cajones to speak up when his church wrote how bad jews were or when his mentor said that America was responsible for 911 and that we should be saying "God Damn America". So maybe he doesn't have the cajones to tell the truth about the issues facing black americans.

His foreign policy advisor says there is no way that Obama will get the troops out of Iraq in the time table Obama is giving to voters. His economic advisor told the Canadians not to worry about what Obama says about NAFTA on the campaign trail. So, maybe Obama is not ready on day one...or day two. Why should I or anyone else believe he is ready?

I'm not overly impressed with telling blacks that anti-semetism is wrong. If Obama can speak honestly to African Americans about crime, education and poverty, then I will believe he has cojones.

Without the speech he is an easy target for the Republicans. Sitting in a church for 20 years without ever offering a rebuttal to hate speech suggests that Obama has the cajones the size of martini olives.

by mmorang 2008-04-09 03:54PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

Here's the problem with your position.

The Wright kerfuffle strictly hurts Obama with a "Guilt by association" tag, and for low information voters, sure that will hurt.

Hillary's "Serial Exaggerator" meme can be cut together with clips DIRECT FROM HER OWN MOUTH!

Show me an Obama speech where HE sounds like Rev Wright?

Check out the ad I wrote about Hillary and Free trade on the Colombia thread.

I am in advertising, and, I would MUCH rather do an attack ad with Hillary ACTUALLY FIBBING...

It's a dream job, she will be SAVAGED in the general over that....

My answer on Rev Wright?  

Show me where OBAMA holds those positions?

You really have to Wiggle to cover Hillary's misspeaks?

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-09 04:01PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

You vastly underestimate Obama's Wright problem. He chose the man as his mentor. He sat in a church for 20 years where hate speech is rampant.

What about the extremely anti-semetic writings? No big deal you say? I disagree. The Republicans have no incentive to bring Obama down now. But they surely will at a time of their choosing.

Obama is outspending Clinton 5-1 in PA and he will still lose. He has a major problem with working-class whites. Can Obama win the Dem primary? Sure, he probably will. But the general election is a whole other ballgame. I think Democrats have blown it again.

If Obama is such a transformational political leader, then why can't he win any of the largest 7 states (not counting IL)?

Can Obama win 70% of the hispanic vote? That's what he will need to make up for his poor showing amongst whites.

What kind of commercial can the 527 groups put together? How about this:

Obama choosing Wright as his mentor and pastor.

Rev Wright saying "God Damn America"

Rev Wright saying American deserved 911.

Michelle Obama saying that for the first time she was proud of America.

Obama refuses to wear an American flag.

Obama goes to the home of, and receives money and support from two admitted American terrorists who have blown up buildings in our country and attempted to kill U.S. soldiers in New Jersey.

Add that to the commercials that will show Obama promissing he wouldn't run for president this year because he wouldn't be ready.

Obama's foreign policy advisor saying that Obama isn't ready to answer the phone at 3am.

Obama can be taken down anytime by the GOP. Wright will make a return with a vengeance and you want to make an issue of careless mistatements that affect no one.

by mmorang 2008-04-09 04:16PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

We have to agree to disagree on this one.

Sure, the Wright issue hurt Obama, but a lot of those low information voters would have been scaried off by some other issue, he's too liberal, blah-blah, blah.

You sound like a very strong Hillary supporter, looking for a lifeline?

It's not like SHE is not going to be savaged as a serial fibber?  

The Republicans are coming at us, all guns blazing?

So far, the way Obama has handled HIS main stumbling block, Wright, has impressed me.

Clinton is spinning like a top with her "I misspoke, I was sleep deprived" rationalizations.

Face it, his just a naturally better politician then she is.

I'm not saying BETTER President, but this is about getting elected?

My take is, the Wright damage has been done, sure they will flog it to death in the general?

And, it's not like I expected him to win Kentucky in the general anyway?

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-09 04:30PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

I like Obama too, but I don't feel he can win.

He has lost many of the Republicans, Independents and conservative Dem's. The bottom line is that working-class whites will not support him. That's why Hillary is doing much better than Obama is the big swing states.

The idea that Obama will win enough red states to make up for Ohio, PA, FL MI is ridiculous. This will be a route. Dukakis reduex.

Political Science 101: Don't run a rookie against a war hero while the nation is fighting two wars, especially if that rookie listened to hate speech most of his adult life.

Do progressives lack the political gene necessary to make smart political decisions? The Republicans don't make bone-headed mistakes when it comes to presidential elections, they just govern poorly. Democrats have the opposite problem.

by mmorang 2008-04-09 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

And don't run a rookie who has already been tagged as a serial Fibber (I won't use the L word but the Republicans will)

I'm sorry, but Hillary is just as much of a rookie as Obama as a Presidential candidate, and where as his has run very smoothly, excepting Wright, Senator Clintons has been run terribly.

She started out with a HUGE lead in money, delegates, fame, support.

And, thanks to clowns like Penn, she turned one slam dunk into a desperate rule bending catch up?

The NY times and Politico BOTH ran that story, right now, the Supers are looking at WHO ran a better campaign in the primary, and deciding who to back in the fall.

That's the breaks, in fact, Hillary should have fired the entire lot of them, Penn, Wolfson, put Bill in his place and run the campaign herself.

She would have put Obama away in Super Tuesday.

instead, look where she is now?

Senator Clinton's problem again is, this just refinforces the existing meme that she and Bill would do, say anything to get elected?

Obama will win Michigan and Penn in the General, heck, he is only going to lose by single digits probably to Clinton there, looks like.  

And, no way either Clinton OR Obama wins FL this year, sorry, we also disagree on your electoral map.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-09 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

McCain beats Obama in NEW YORK but loses to Clinton.

Clinton does better than Obama against McCain in PA and OH.

Obama will get about 35% of the white vote. He is a deeply flawed candidate for the general election this year. He has VP written on his forehead.

by mmorang 2008-04-10 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

McCain beats Obama in NY?
Show me a poll.

Clinton still loses to McCain in PA and OH. So what's your point?

by xodus1914 2008-04-10 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: I would like to see how much support Obama has

You mean bone-headed mistakes like refusing to support a candidate already ahead in the polls because you don't think that they'll be electable? Yeah, that's something it seems only Democrats do. Would be nice if we could quit that habit.

by vcalzone 2008-04-09 06:04PM | 0 recs
I think Obama's Wright

Problem will fade as people from unsuspecting corners show up to defend Wright... I know local pastors across the country who are waiting for an chance to defend Wright.  If a Republican group runs an ad there will be a huge kick-back from the theological community against them, and McCain cannot afford that.  Bush won the last two cycles by upping the evangelical vote.  It would be a really risky strategy.  As I talk to friends, be them evangelical or main-line, across the country people are simply waiting for a chance to organize in defense of Wright... I imagine Republicans know the trouble in making an issue of Wright with clergy.

by CardBoard 2008-04-09 04:51PM | 0 recs
Re: I think Obama's Wright

I've thought the same thing. The evangelical community does not want to allow any group to start associating politicians directly with selected soundbites. And they absolutely WILL NOT allow the media and the marketers (who REALLY don't respect religion to begin with) to relentlessly attack a member of the clergy, particularly one as highly regarded as Wright.

Yeah, I said highly regarded. That's what he was before some monsters decided to make him into one of their own.

by vcalzone 2008-04-09 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: I think Obama's Wright

There's a reason Mike Huckabee ame out in days following the Wright story, and defended Obama, the evangeleicals- really, really, don't wnat this to become an acceptable campaign tactic, it undercuts any chane they have of obtaining politically legitimacy (as opposed to just raw power). Seeriously, you think Focus on the Family et al, want Bush 3 (they honestly loathe McCain- its why he had to beg to get the backing of one of the lest publicly acceptable fundies in Hagee, the headliners may back McCain in name, but unless he picks a fundie type as his VP, they will never trust the man) to have to answer for every Dobson, Robertson, or Haggard comment (all of whom currently (or formerly for Haggard) have more direct Whitehouse access than Wright would ever have in an Obama admin.

That would be the one concievable upside of Obama being torpedoed with Wright (downside- we lose the election because we'd ahve to run Hillary "lost cause" Clinton against McCain), it would effectively castrate  a third of the GOP's power base.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-09 09:38PM | 0 recs
Jewish vote, ex-NY, NJ, CT

(1) Considering Rendell is Jewish, and from Philly (which has the largest concentration of Jewish voters, I would assume), I imagine he won the Jewish vote.

(2) Considering that New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut account for something like 33% of America's Jewish population (and California another large chunk), I think it's fair to say that in the rest of the country, Obama is winning the Jewish vote. Exit polls showed Clinton getting 60+% of the Jewish vote in NJ and NY, but Obama winning in CT.

by niq 2008-04-09 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

I want to see a little more about the denomination breakdown. Most of my Reform and Conservative friends tend to vote for Obama and my Orthodox friends tend to vote Clinton. I've noticed a stronger generational divide anecdotally within the Conservative movement (younger going to Obama, obviously). Have other people found the same phonemenon?

by afertig 2008-04-09 04:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

My father is a lifelong Republican and President of his synagogue. He would vote for McCain over Clinton, but is not sure what he would do in an Obama-McCain race.

To my surprise, Wright had no effect on him. He frequently disagrees with his Rabbis on political questions. Marty Peretz of all people made a similar point in the New Republic.

Obama has given those who feel like the Republican party has moved away from their values the space to switch. Clinton has too much past baggage to serve this role.

by thinman 2008-04-09 04:36PM | 0 recs
Jews for Hillary

As a Jew, I'm very pro-Hillary. I don't trust Obama in the least little bit. He switched from being pro-Palestinian, anti-Israel way to fast. Now, to get elected, he's aligned with AIPAC. You don't go from being pals with Edward Said and Khalidi to suddenly being pro-Israel.

Why do you think Palestinians and Muslims would jump for joy if Obama gets the nod? Like NAFTA, they know he has to say a bunch of BS he doesn't believe in to get elected but they expect his support once he does.

How's this for an opinion:

Obama Coddles Evil::By Ben Shapiro

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/BenSh apiro/2008/04/09/obama_coddles_evil?page =1

by Nobama 2008-04-09 07:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Jews for Hillary

How'sabout you stop taking your talking points from conservative blogs?

by vcalzone 2008-04-09 08:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Jews for Hillary

How's about you realizing that maybe other people besides conservatives have these ideas?

I am a Jew, and I feel the same way the previous writer did, and have just calculated that that I have 27 Democratic Jewish family members and friends (I have excluded my Republican Jewish friends and family for the purpose of this analysis) with whom I have discussed this Primary election in the past two months.  Of them, only 1 supported Obama, and that is only because the shared the same alma maters (and he is pretty wishy-washy about his support for Obama.

So, I think this is a pretty small, nonsensical poll and I think your response is offensive.

by cjbardy 2008-04-09 08:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Jews for Hillary

No, that article is very much a conservative hack job. Try going on Town Hall and talking about McCain's 100 years comment. Or calling his wife the most derogatory name imaginable. See what kind of nice, tolerant comments you get.

Nobody owes you the ability to say whatever you want and just respect it. Especially when what you want to say is completely antithetical to any of Obama's actual platforms. If we're not going by that, then how about I just start pushing anything and everything I read about the Clinton's "secret agenda" as truth?

Did you even READ the article in question? It's nothing BUT conservative talking points. Ones that will be made about your girl, too. Probably by the same damn writer. Oops, I forgot. He's already MADE them.

by vcalzone 2008-04-09 09:01PM | 0 recs
I am really sorry that you are such a simple

person that everything is black and white for you.  I have to assume that all of your friends have the exact same opinion on every topic as you do.  How boring for you.  You are nothing but a diletante, rigid in your thinking and unwilling to entertain, even for a moment, the thought that other people may operate differently than you do.

Most people are more complex than you seem to be and have a wide variety of opinions, some from column A and some from column B.

As Nobama said, I don't care what the author's other opinions are.  This one was right on target, and contrary to your conclusion, I did read the entire article and there was nothing wrong or offensive to it, except maybe to you, because he didn't like Obama.

Furthermore, just because something is in Obama's platform doesn't mean that he will act in accordance with that, or even holds that view in his heart.

Just for more information, I will give you a link to a post on my blog, which discusses an article that appeared in today's LA Times, which examines what Palestinians' opinions are about Obama.  Obama on Israel: What does he really believe.  I am sure you will hate it because it contains an opinion different than yours.

May I make a suggestion?  You may get farther by listening to people and appreciating their differences, then by slamming them because they have differences.

by cjbardy 2008-04-10 08:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Jews for Hillary

Fantastic. Someone gave you mojo for your chirpy nonsense. Here are articles that author has written about Hillary. Unlike you, I'll just list the titles so I don't give him any clicks.

Hillary Hopes to be 'Rocky II' in 2012
Project President: The Hillary Clinton Image
Hillary: Fake Hawk

And here are some quotes from that article. All of these are true, of course, because they're from the same brilliant author you quoted:
" Hillary is no stranger to manipulation; she speaks loudly (for the benefit of moderates and conservatives) and carries a small stick (for the benefit of the radical left). Rudy Giuliani has criticized Hillary for flip-flopping on Iran, but Hillary has never flip-flopped. She's a gung-ho opponent of a nuclear Iran, unless it means actually stopping Iran. "

" Hillary Clinton, like Tommy Morrison in "Rocky V," is out only for herself. By staying in the race, she forces Obama to spend cash. By attacking Obama, she undercuts his credibility in the general election. By sinking him in 2008, she opens a path to the nomination for herself in 2012. "

"Hillary has severe image drawbacks. She seems shrill, harsh and unfriendly, particularly when she gets riled. She wears those ubiquitous pantsuits with an off-putting masculinity. She is so intent on proving she can play with the boys that she loses her strongest advantage over the boys: her status as a woman."

"Historically Hillary experiences her highest popularity when she is least masculine. She translated her victimhood status during the Lewinsky affair into sky-high approval ratings. During the 2000 New York Senate race, she successfully played victim when opponent Rick Lazio approached her podium during a debate. "

Again, I'm not agreeing with any of these things. But presumably, you do.

by vcalzone 2008-04-09 09:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Jews for Hillary

You're missing the point, vcalzone. I don't know anything about the author you're talking about and I know nothing about conservative talking points. Ben Shapiro just happened to say something I agreed with. You may not like him or what he has said in other articles but that isn't the point. I agreed with what he wrote in that particular article.

From what I can gather, there's no earthly reason to trust Obama on any issue because he has no track record and what record there is is bad. Really bad. I hope people aren't so naive as to believe his Axelrod-packaged BS.

by Nobama 2008-04-09 09:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Jews for Hillary

My point is that you should reconsider where you're getting your info from. And whoever is giving that info? Where are THEY getting their info from? Because Republicans don't have this problem. They don't post stuff they find from Digby, Glenn Greenwald or Crooks & Liars. And yet here we are, and someone on a Democratic blog wants us all to see an article written by someone who, at 20 years old, wrote a book called "Porn Generation: How Social Liberalism Is Corrupting Our Future".

Here's my point to you. If you can't find anyone you respect that expresses your opinion, maybe you should question that opinion instead of looking to people you don't respect.

by vcalzone 2008-04-10 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

I am a Jew, and I support Hillary, and otherwise I fit the Obama demographic - young, college-educated, male.  I would expect him to run stronger than losing 48-43 to Hillary among a highly-educated Jewish electorate that otherwise would be expected to vote for Obama.  I imagine many Jews will vote for McCain or just won't be that enthusiastic about voting for Obama, like myself.  I do not trust an Obama administration to support Israel or to deal with Iraq properly.  I do trust McCain to support Israel - and I don't think McCain wants a 100 year war in Iraq, he wants stability, like we have now in Japan and Germany where we have been for 60+ years.  

And since Obama has no track record of accomplishing anything that I deem significant, why should I be enthusiastic to support him?  Sorry but I really think if the Dems nominate Obama, it's 1972 all over again... crushing GE loss.

by mikes101 2008-04-09 07:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided on C

Here we go again, with another episode of smear the Black Man.  Coming from Jews, it's disgusting, frankly, and offensive.  Jews of all people, should be a little less critical and a little more informed in a case like this.

If Obama's statements about Israel aren't enough for you, then basically you're calling him either a liar or a flip-flopper.  Which is it?

He supports Israel, okay?  He's not a Muslim and he doesn't support hate speech.  And neither does the church he attended.

And unless you've actually attended services there, you have no standing to critcize them in such a random, careless way.

In case you're keeping score: I am a Jew, Democrat, Obama supporter (in case that wasn't obvious).

by Reluctantpopstar 2008-04-10 02:56AM | 0 recs
Obama supporters need to get something straight...

We're not all racists just because we oppose your candidate & are critical of him.

by goldilocks 2008-04-10 05:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporters need to get something straigh

No but a lot of this anti-Israel bullshit comes from the fact that he is black, as does the whole guilt-by-association bit from his pastor and Farrakan.

by BlueGAinDC 2008-04-10 05:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporters need to get something straigh

It's a ritual that all black candidates seem to have to go through - at least in New York; denounce Farrakhan.

Barack Obama is (and has consistently been) much more of an Israeli hawk than I am, but a black candidate on the national stage almost has no choice.

I'm wouldn't accuse anyone personally of racism, but there's a definite double standard that exists.

by Mostly 2008-04-10 05:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporters need to get something straigh

I agree with the double standard.

I also think there is a level of (possibly unwitting) hypocrisy on the part of many Jews when it comes to issues like this.

I want to raise my kids in the Jewish tradition but can't stomach taking them to a temple that routinely spews racist (i.e. anti-Arab) crap in the guise of being pro-Israel.  How many of us have sat thru a sermon where the rabbi compares/contrasts the actions of Israelis with Palestinians in a one-sided, unfair way?  If you have, did you quit the congregation?  If not, then think twice about your criticism of Obama vis a vis Wright.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-10 07:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporters need to get something straigh

I don't really think its that bad. I've listened to very many sermons from many different Rabbis and I find they are usually much more tolerant than the average Jewish one-issue voter.

As much as being pro-Israel is a Jewish value, tolerance is a much more important value.

I attended a Jewish day school for 10 years and admit it was mostly brainwashing in terms of Israel. But it was never anti-Arab. And this was one of the more conservative schools.

The thing is, from the Jewish perspective (except for the conservatives, politically), Palestinian doesn't really equal Arab. There are many Arabs that live very peaceful with Jews in Israel (especially in the city of Haifa). Its terrorism we are taught to hate, and rightly so. Sometimes American Jews equate all Palestinians with terrorism, and that's when it becomes a problem.

by BlueGAinDC 2008-04-10 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama supporters need to get something straigh

Thanks for your perspective on this.  I found it very valuable.

I was one of the 'brainwashed' kids who went and lived in Israel during high school (in Haifa).  Living in Israel 'cured' me of Zionism because much of the propaganda I had been fed previously just did not hold up.  This should not be interpreted as being anti-Israeli, as you noted Israeli-Arab relations have many facets.  

I guess I get riled when one-issue voters show no tolerance for differing opinions and, like a previous poster, imply that we are betraying our ancestors by not agreeing with them.  Ummm, how's that for logic, intolerance makes me intolerant.  

Again, thank you for responding thoughtfully and graciously.  Posts like yours give me hope.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-10 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Jewish American Democrats Largely Divided

I wish somebody would poll Jewish voters on who their 1st-2nd-3rd choices are. Because most people in my community are Hillary fans, but are also very positive about Obama. If he's the nominee I bet money on it that this particular set of Hillary voters will be enthusiastically voting for him too. They don't dislike or mistrust him, they just like her better.

If that's true of Jewish Democrats in general, then this really isn't a demographic Obama needs to be worrying about too much.

by tjekanefir 2008-04-10 05:34AM | 0 recs

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