Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

bumped from the diaries --j

For weeks now, there's been all this talk about how this presidential primary campaign might come to an end - if several prominent superdelegates were to endorse either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton as a group.  Or even, a larger group of semi-prominent superdelegates (remember the superdelegate surge that was rumored to be happening post-Texas/Ohio?)

Which got me to thinking:  Who would those superdelegates be?   Which superdelegates are especially influential - with other superdelegates, with the media, with the public?

  • Obviously, a lot of folks have mentioned Al Gore.  But he doesn't seem particularly interested in the job.
  • Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid could play that role, but they seem committed to waiting it out.
  • Jimmy Carter has negotiated peace treaties and observed elections all over the world.  Maybe we need him to weigh in.

In any case, rather than brainstorm up names, I decided to attempt a Power Ranking of Uncommitted Superdelegates.

So, I poured myself a stiff cocktail, came up with some criteria, assigned some values, and came up with a chart that ranks all 286 uncommitted superdelegates.

What did I include in my criteria?  Well, former presidents and vice presidents get big points, as do congressional leaders.  Senators were valued slightly more than Governors, who were valued slightly more than members of Congress, who were valued more than DNC members and other folks.  Members of Congress in tough swing districts, or those running for the US Senate, were valued slightly higher.  Being from a swing state counted extra, and being from a big state also counted extra.  Being from one of the remaining primary states counts extra, but being from Michigan or Florida carries a slight penalty.  Folks who seem to have some sort of prominence got bonus points as well, such as former presidential candidates, policy leaders on key issues, committee chairmen, etc.

Now, admittedly, this is an entirely subjective exercise, an attempt at quantifying purely qualitative judgments.  Hundreds of them.  

The purpose here isn't to craft the definitive list, or to issue some truth from a mountaintop.  Rather, it's to start a conversation.

What did I miss?  Who should be ranked higher?  Who should be ranked lower?

Which superdelegate endorsement are you waiting for?  Which of these superdelegates, perhaps in combination with a dozen others, could put an end to this primary election?

[Some disclosure:  I'm a campaign internet strategist based in Oregon.  Several of my past and present (and hopefully future) clients are superdelegates - some Obama, some Clinton, some uncommitted.  I'm an Obama supporter, but as one prominent Clinton supporter says, I'm an "Obama-come-lately." I was a diehard maxed-out Edwards supporter, for whatever that's worth.]

Without further ado...

#139 pts.Vice President Al GoreTN
#238 pts.President Jimmy CarterGA
#336 pts.Sen. Harry ReidNV
#433 pts.Rep. Nancy PelosiCA
#530 pts.Gov. Howard DeanVT
#629 pts.Sen. Sherrod BrownOH
#727 pts.Sen. Tom HarkinIA
#825 pts.Sen. George MitchellNY
#924 pts.Sen. Joe BidenDE
#1023 pts.Sen. Mary LandrieuLA
#1122 pts.Rep. Rahm EmanuelIL
#1122 pts.Sen. Ron WydenOR
#1122 pts.Sen. Max BaucusMT
#1122 pts.Sen. Jon TesterMT
#1521 pts.Sen. Jim WebbVA
#1521 pts.Rep. Steny HoyerMD
#1521 pts.Gov. Joe ManchinWV
#1820 pts.Rep. Dennis KucinichOH
#1820 pts.Sen. Robert ByrdWV
#1820 pts.Gov. Brian SchweitzerMT
#2119 pts.Rep. Mike HondaCA
#2218 pts.Rep. Henry WaxmanCA
#2218 pts.Rep. Zack SpaceOH
#2417 pts.Rep. Tom UdallNM
#2417 pts.Sen. Herb KohlWI
#2417 pts.Rep. Jason AltmirePA
#2417 pts.Rep. Chris CarneyPA
#2816 pts.Rep. Jim ClyburnSC
#2816 pts.Rep. Jerry McNerneyCA
#2816 pts.Sen. Jeff BingamanNM
#2816 pts. Robert Schwarz StraussTX
#2816 pts.Rep. Jim McDermottWA
#2816 pts.Rep. Peter DeFazioOR
#3415 pts.Rep. Ron KleinFL
#3415 pts.Rep. Pete StarkCA
#3415 pts.Rep. Tom AllenME
#3415 pts. Donna BrazileDC
#3415 pts.Rep. Marcia KapturOH
#3415 pts.Rep. Tim RyanOH
#3415 pts.Rep. Betty SuttonOH
#3415 pts.Rep. Charlie WilsonOH
#4214 pts. Alex SinkFL
#4214 pts.Rep. Mark UdallCO
#4214 pts.Gov. John LynchNH
#4214 pts.Rep. Ciro RodriguezTX
#4214 pts. Chris RedfernOH
#4214 pts.Gov. Mike EasleyNC
#4214 pts.Rep. Bob BradyPA
#4214 pts.Rep. Mike DoylePA
#4214 pts.Rep. Tim HoldenPA
#5113 pts.Sen. Carl LevinMI
#5113 pts.Sen. Ken SalazarCO
#5113 pts.Rep. Howard BermanCA
#5113 pts.Rep. Lois CappsCA
#5113 pts.Rep. Jim CostaCA
#5113 pts.Rep. Susan DavisCA
#5113 pts.Rep. Sam FarrCA
#5113 pts.Rep. Bob FilnerCA
#5113 pts.Sen. Frank LautenbergNJ
#5113 pts.Rep. Nick LampsonTX
#5113 pts.Rep. Chris Van HollenMD
#5113 pts.Sen. Ben CardinMD
#5113 pts.Rep. Heath ShulerNC
#5113 pts.Rep. Brad EllsworthIN
#5113 pts.Rep. Joe DonnellyIN
#5113 pts.Rep. Baron HillIN
#6712 pts.Rep. Allen BoydFL
#6712 pts.Rep. Tim MahoneyFL
#6712 pts.Gov. Roy RomerCO
#6712 pts.Gov. Brad HenryOK
#6712 pts. Art TorresCA
#6712 pts.Rep. Jim MarshallGA
#6712 pts.Sen. Daniel AkakaHI
#6712 pts.Sen. Jack ReedRI
#6712 pts. Linda Chavez-ThompsonTX
#6712 pts.Sen. Thomas R. CarperDE
#6712 pts.Rep. Gabrielle GiffordsAZ
#6712 pts.Rep. Harry MitchellAZ
#6712 pts.Rep. Collin PetersonMN
#6712 pts. Joyce BeattyOH
#6712 pts. William BurgaOH
#6712 pts. Enid GoubeauxOH
#6712 pts.Rep. David WuOR
#8411 pts. Karen ThurmanFL
#8411 pts.Rep. John SalazarCO
#8411 pts.Gov. Bill RitterCO
#8411 pts.Rep. Joe CourtneyCT
#8411 pts.Rep. Bruce BraleyIA
#8411 pts.Rep. Nancy BoydaKS
#8411 pts. Brian ColonNM
#8411 pts. Sam LiebermanNV
#8411 pts. Ray BuckleyNH
#8411 pts.Rep. Ike SkeltonMO
#8411 pts.Gov. Phil BredesenTN
#8411 pts.Rep. Rick LarsenWA
#8411 pts.Gov. Steve BeshearKY
#8411 pts. Meredith Woods-SmithOR
#8411 pts. William GeorgePA
#8411 pts. Sophie MasloffPA
#10010 pts. Mark BrewerMI
#10010 pts. Scott BrennanIA
#10010 pts. Lottie ShackelfordAR
#10010 pts. Crystal StraitCA
#10010 pts. Edward EspinozaCA
#10010 pts. Inola HenryCA
#10010 pts. Carole MigdenCA
#10010 pts. Bob MulhollandCA
#10010 pts. Christine PelosiCA
#10010 pts. John A. PerezCA
#10010 pts. Robert RankinCA
#10010 pts. Keith UmemotoCA
#10010 pts. Steve YbarraCA
#10010 pts. Philip D. MurphyNJ
#10010 pts.Rep. Michael MichaudME
#10010 pts. Boyd RichieTX
#10010 pts. John TemporitiMO
#10010 pts. Dwight PelzWA
#10010 pts. Susan TurnbullMD
#10010 pts. Awais KhaleelWI
#10010 pts. Lena TaylorWI
#10010 pts. Paula ZellnerWI
#10010 pts.Rep. Bob EtheridgeNC
#10010 pts.Rep. Mike McIntyreNC
#10010 pts.Rep. Brad MillerNC
#10010 pts.Rep. David PriceNC
#10010 pts.Rep. Mel WattNC
#10010 pts.Rep. Alan MollohanWV
#10010 pts.Rep. André CarsonIN
#10010 pts.Rep. Pete ViscloskyIN
#1309 pts. Dan GelberFL
#1309 pts. Steve GellerFL
#1309 pts. Diane GlasserFL
#1309 pts. Andrew TobiasFL
#1309 pts. Jon AusmanFL
#1309 pts. Terrie BradyFL
#1309 pts. Mitchell CeasarFL
#1309 pts. Janee MurphyFL
#1309 pts. Rudolph ParkerFL
#1309 pts.Rep. Carolyn Cheeks KilpatrickMI
#1309 pts.Rep. Bart StupakMI
#1309 pts.Rep. William JeffersonLA
#1309 pts.Rep. Charlie MelanconLA
#1309 pts.Rep. Rush HoltNJ
#1309 pts. Catherine Cortez MastoNV
#1309 pts. Yvonne GatesNV
#1309 pts.Rep. Edward MarkeyMA
#1309 pts.Rep. John OlverMA
#1309 pts.Rep. John TierneyMA
#1309 pts.Rep. Niki TsongasMA
#1309 pts.Rep. Lincoln DavisTN
#1309 pts.Rep. Bart GordonTN
#1309 pts.Rep. John TannerTN
#1309 pts.Rep. John SarbanesMD
#1309 pts. Nancy LarsonMN
#1309 pts.Rep. Ben ChandlerKY
#1309 pts. Bill BradburyOR
#1309 pts. Frank DixonOR
#1309 pts. Jenny GreenleafOR
#1309 pts. Wayne KinneyOR
#1309 pts. Gail RasmussenOR
#1309 pts. Jerry MeekNC
#1309 pts. Nick Casey Jr.WV
#1638 pts.Rep. Bud CramerAL
#1638 pts. Pat WaakCO
#1638 pts. Chris WhittingtonLA
#1638 pts.Rep. John SprattSC
#1638 pts. Richard MachacekIA
#1638 pts.Rep. Dan BorenOK
#1638 pts.Rep. Dennis MooreKS
#1638 pts.Rep. Gene TaylorMS
#1638 pts.Rep. Jim MathesonUT
#1638 pts.Rep. Mazie HironoHI
#1638 pts. David HardtTX
#1638 pts. Al EdwardsTX
#1638 pts. Jaime Gonzalez Jr.TX
#1638 pts. Robert MartinezTX
#1638 pts. John PatrickTX
#1638 pts. Betty RichieTX
#1638 pts. C. Richard CranwellVA
#1638 pts. Jay NixonMO
#1638 pts. Robin CarnahanMO
#1638 pts. Yolanda WheatMO
#1638 pts. Maria Chappelle-NadalMO
#1638 pts. Leila MedleyMO
#1638 pts. Ralph DawsonNY
#1638 pts. Irene SteinNY
#1638 pts. Gray SasserTN
#1638 pts. Eileen MacollWA
#1638 pts. Ed CoteWA
#1638 pts. Sharon MastWA
#1638 pts. David McDonaldWA
#1638 pts. Don BivensAZ
#1638 pts.Rep. Madeleine BordalloGU
#1638 pts. Michael CryorMD
#1638 pts. Jennifer MooreKY
#1638 pts. Dennis McDonaldMT
#1977 pts. Michael TardiffMI
#1977 pts. Lauren WolfeMI
#1977 pts. Virgie RollinsMI
#1977 pts. Robert FicanoMI
#1977 pts. Richard WienerMI
#1977 pts. Jeffrey RadjewskiMI
#1977 pts. Joyce LalondeMI
#1977 pts. Lu BattaglieriMI
#1977 pts. Tina AbbottMI
#1977 pts. Kwame KilpatrickMI
#1977 pts. Brenda LawrenceMI
#1977 pts. Eric ColemanMI
#1977 pts. Elizabeth BunnMI
#1977 pts. Richard ShoemakerMI
#1977 pts. Debbie DingellMI
#1977 pts. Joe TurnhamAL
#1977 pts. Nancy DiNardoCT
#1977 pts. Ivan HolmesOK
#1977 pts. Larry GatesKS
#1977 pts. Wayne DowdyMS
#1977 pts. Steven AchelpohlNE
#1977 pts. Wayne Holland Jr.UT
#1977 pts. Beverly WithingtonHI
#1977 pts. Keith RoarkID
#1977 pts. Jennifer DeChantME
#1977 pts. Sam SpencerME
#1977 pts. Anita BondsDC
#1977 pts. John DanielloDE
#1977 pts. David StraussND
#1977 pts. Edward SmithIL
#1977 pts. Dr. Jeanette CouncilNC
#1977 pts. Muriel OffermanNC
#1977 pts. David ParkerNC
#1977 pts. Carol PetersonNC
#1977 pts. Alice GermondWV
#2326 pts. Elsie BurkhalterLA
#2326 pts. Claude "Buddy" LeachLA
#2326 pts. Richard RayGA
#2326 pts. Alexis HermanVA
#2326 pts. Joe JohnsonVA
#2326 pts. Jim LeamanVA
#2326 pts. Jerome Wiley SegoviaVA
#2326 pts. Debra KozikowskiMA
#2326 pts. James Roosevelt JrMA
#2326 pts. Vicki HarwellTN
#2326 pts. Jerry LeeTN
#2326 pts. Dr. Inez CrutchfieldTN
#2326 pts. Lauren GloverMD
#2326 pts. John GageMD
#2326 pts. Belkis Leong-HongMD
#2326 pts. Heather MizeurMD
#2326 pts. Gregory PecoraroMD
#2326 pts. John SweeneyMD
#2326 pts. Nathan SmithKY
#2326 pts. Moretta BosleyKY
#2525 pts. Nancy WorleyAL
#2525 pts. Wilbur Lee JeffcoatSC
#2525 pts. Gilda Cobb-HunterSC
#2525 pts. John OlsenCT
#2525 pts. Reggie WhittenOK
#2525 pts. Mike MorganOK
#2525 pts. Jim FrasierOK
#2525 pts. Kalyn FreeOK
#2525 pts. Jay ParmleyOK
#2525 pts. Helen KnetzerKS
#2525 pts. Carnelia Pettis FondrenMS
#2525 pts. Audra OstergardNE
#2525 pts. Helen LanganUT
#2525 pts. Joshua WischHI
#2525 pts. Dr. Marie Dolly StrazarHI
#2525 pts. Blake JohnsonAK
#2525 pts. Cindy SpanyersAK
#2525 pts. Harry Thomas, Jr.DC
#2525 pts. Christine WarnkeDC
#2525 pts. Larry CohenDC
#2525 pts. Harriet Smith-WindsorDE
#2525 pts. Margarett CampbellMT
#2525 pts. Cheryl ChapmanSD
#2525 pts. Nancy DrummondWY
#2525 pts. Cynthia NunleyWY
#2525 pts. Christine MarquesDA*
#2525 pts. Theresa MorelliDA*
#2525 pts. Antonio CharfaurosGU
#2525 pts. Cecilia MafnasGU
#2525 pts. Taling TaitanoGU
#2525 pts. Robert UnderwoodGU
#2525 pts. Luisette CabanasPR
#2525 pts. Eliseo Roques-ArroyoPR
#2525 pts. Marylyn StapletonVI
#2525 pts. Carol BurkeVI

Tags: clinton, obama, superdelegates (all tags)

Comments

61 Comments

Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Wow! That is a mighty list.

I would like to mention that while Jimmy Carter has basically endorsed Obama, he refuses to actually endorse Obama. So he probably won't play a continued role in this process. He seems to have said all he intends to say for now.

However, Dean, Reid and Pelosi have all made it very clear that they want this settled before the Convention. These three are the biggest power brokers and I would watch their actions and statements very carefully in the coming weeks.

Of course, Gore could play a role - but he seems determined not to. Of course, that could always change.

by LandStander 2008-04-08 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Which makes sense... its unbecoming for a former President to delve in these matters.... The ONLY reason its remotely acceptable for Bill is because its his wife... and notice how the media and party tore him a part when he went from positively supporting his wife to fighting down in the mud.  It was a major mistake and short term hurt his reputation... Carter and Gore (I think Gore differs from Mondale due to his image remake) are avoiding the same mistake. Notice that Ford, Bush and Bush all stayed out of it UNTIL a nominee was certain.

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

I also think that there was a tad bit of validity to Brokaw's 50-delegate scoop.

Obama has averaged a super delegate a day drop, and I think that there will be a dump (The Schakowsky eight) somewhere around the IN/NC primaries. Obama will be ahead in the Super delegate metric around that date.

The "math" will begin to center on the popular vote, but by then HRC will need to convince over 70% of the remaining supers to entertain that argument.

I don't want to be a party-pooper, but it looks bleak.

by Veteran75 2008-04-08 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

I'd put Pelosi above Reid, because she's more visible, because Speaker is more prestigious than majority leader, and because Speaker is near the front in the line of succession.

by freedom78 2008-04-08 08:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Additionally to that, I would put Joe Biden above Sherrod Brown.  Biden ran for President and is known by quite a few people nationwide.  Brown is beginning to become prominent but does not quite have the same name recognition.

Other than that, darned impressive list...

by JenKinFLA 2008-04-08 09:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Yeah, I was thinking that, too.  Not because of his appeal to voters, which I think doesn't make much difference aside from Gore, but because it would be a big signal to OTHER SDs.  

by freedom78 2008-04-08 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Yeah, Brown goes up high because he's from a large state that's also a swing state.  But I hear your point about Biden.

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Yeah Brown really is WAY too high on that list, especially now that his state is over. I'd put Biden, Emanuel, Byrd, Baucus and Harkin easily over Brown.

I'd also put Dean as 4th, followed by Reid.  I think Dean has more power in the Netroots AND in the party than Reid at this juncture.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

I agree.

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking
Way, way down the list Harrt Thomas of DC officially moved from Clinton to undecided today.
http://www.examiner.com/a-1326716~D_C__c ouncilman_no_longer_member_of_Clinton_ca mp.html
by howardpark 2008-04-08 09:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking
For HRC the only ones that could see make her see the day are of course her husband and member of her inner circle.
Those are the ones that will sit down with her and tell her the truth.
by KathyM 2008-04-08 09:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Newsweek just ran a piece arguing Rahm Emmanuel would break the news. It was an interesting read, covering his work in the Clinton White House, his friendship with David Axelrod, his intense bulldog personality, and his missing middle finger.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/130605

(By Suzanne Smalley and Evan Thomas)

by JoeFelice 2008-04-08 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Wow, that's a hell of a list you've got there. Very well researched! I'm sorry to say nobody's going to read it; if there's anything most of the people around here hate, it's well-researched articles.

;)

by ragekage 2008-04-08 09:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Someone was listening to you!

:o)

by Veteran75 2008-04-08 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

I feel you should probably elevate Dennis Kucinich since he was active in this campaign as a candidate, has wond delegates in the current race, has affected the message of all democratic candidates to one extent or another, and has an elevated profile in the campaign.

A Kucinich endorsement is likely to sway more people and delegates than some of the others above him in this list.

by Why Not 2008-04-08 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Yup - Dennis got a bump for being a presidential candidate, just like all the others.  Of course, he's a House member, not a Senator, so he's not quite as high up there.

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

I thought he endorsed Obama?

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

I would disagree i would say Kucinich is way to high he has won no delegates in the current race http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/scorecard/#D

plus he is always the lone decent in congress that earns you no favors and few freinds with votes like this. What ever the reason if you do not work with people they do not work with you. Thats why i believe his endorsement would sway few.
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2007/roll906. xml

by xenoph10005 2008-04-09 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

You're right about the delegates.. I was thinking I had seen some for Kucinich, but they were all county or state delegates, few and far between in the caucuses.  None of them will result in a delegate at the national convention.

by Why Not 2008-04-09 08:37PM | 0 recs
What, no Feingold?

I was under the impression that he hadn't endorsed yet.  He would certainly carry a good degree of clout in the party.

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 10:39AM | 0 recs
Also...

I think it's tricky to rank female superdelegates in terms of the media attention their endorsements would attract.  If they endorse Obama, then they'll get significantly more media than if they endorse Clinton.  If five or more female superdelegates endorse Obama as a group, they will dominate the news.  So while I overall agree with your rankings, I really don't think female superdelegates can be accurately ranked in this system.  Too many variables.

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Also...

Agreed.  Just like if Jim Clyburn were to endorse Clinton.

by Adam B 2008-04-08 10:44AM | 0 recs
Also true.

I forgot about Clyburn...my bad!

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Also...

Yeah, there's a number of situations like that.  For example, NY supers that endorse Hillary - meaningless.  But NY supers that endorse Obama - huge.    Same in reverse for Illinois.

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 11:53AM | 0 recs
Yep, I was right!

I just double checked--Feingold is leaning one way but has not endorsed.

He should certainly outrank Herb Kohl, at least...and Herbie's pretty high up there.

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: What, no Feingold?

Feingold has endorsed Obama.

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: What, no Feingold?

At least, according to the source I used - wikipedia.

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 11:55AM | 0 recs
Wikipedia is wrong.

They cite the article in which Feingold said that he had voted for Obama in Wisconsin, but still wasn't sure that he would vote that way at the convention, to say that he's "endorsed."  But in the very article they cite (it has since been taken down from the internet), he specifically said that he wasn't endorsing anyone at this juncture because he considered it premature.

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 12:11PM | 0 recs
Let the people vote.

SurveyUSA: Hillary Ahead By 18 Points In Pennsylvania Primary

I wonder how the other polls are so off.

The supers should wait until the people have spoken and let all their votes count.

by gotalife 2008-04-08 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Let the people vote.

Funny that you assume that it's the other polls that are off. Isn't it more likely that the poll that is wildly divergent from the others is the one that is incorrect?
by roseaupensant 2008-04-08 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Let the people vote.

No , that is the most credible poll in the poll rankings.

It is the only poll I actually look at because of their credibilty.

by gotalife 2008-04-08 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Let the people vote.

And they were doing terrible until Super Tuesday... They had the first 4 very wrong and very off.  

The other thing to remember, is they PUSHED leaners very hard... Only 2% undecided

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Let the people vote.

AND they are ONLY number one when looking at Median Error (which frankly, I'm not sure WHY that would relevant but perhaps someone can enlighten me)... if you look at AVERAGE margin of error, IMHO a more meaningful statistic, they are 9th.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/surve yusa-report-cards/

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Let the people vote.

April 08, 2008
Categories: Polls

Two Pennsylvania polls

A reader points out that the difference between two Pennsylvania polls out today -- SurveyUSA has Clinton up 18, Quinnipiac has her up just 6 -- is fairly easily explained:

   All depends on whether you believe it's more likely for Obama to win Southeast Pennsylvania (including Philadelphia) 54%-40% or lose it 52%-43%

By Ben Smith 02:03 PM

by Veteran75 2008-04-08 12:34PM | 0 recs
Bredesen and Reid and Gore

You have Gov. Bredesen way too low.  He's been one of the more objective thinkers this primary season.

Of the top few party leaders, most are uncommitted in name only, and so do not have as much influence as you ascribe to them.  Of the top leaders, I view Reid and also Gore as the only ones who seem truly uncommitted.

by DaveOinSF 2008-04-08 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Is John Edwards not a super?  Or did he endorse someone while I wasn't looking?  He should be on the list even if he is not a super because he won pledged delegates.

by NJIndependent 2008-04-08 10:53AM | 0 recs
He's not a super.

At this point, I think his plan is not to endorse, period.  Since he isn't a super, he can do that if he wants.

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: He's not a super.

Thanks.  It would have been really weird if he endorsed and I missed it.  Why isn't he a super?  A former Senator and VP candidate for the party isn't a super?

by NJIndependent 2008-04-08 11:25AM | 0 recs
To be a superdelegate, you have to be:

A. A currently serving Democratic senator, representative, or governor

B. A member of the DNC

or

C. A "Distinguished Party Leader" (former Dem Presidents/Vice Presidents, former DNC chairmen, and former Speakers and Minority/Majority leaders).

Unsuccessful presidential/vice presidential candidates do not qualify as superdelegates.  Geraldine Ferraro isn't a super, either, for the same reason.

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 11:42AM | 0 recs
Re: To be a superdelegate, you have to be:

But they could be an unpledged add-on.  Here in Oregon, our beloved former Governor Barbara Roberts has been an unpledged add-on for the last several cycles (though she's not this year.)

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 11:56AM | 0 recs
Re: To be a superdelegate, you have to be:

Maybe NC will pick him as one.

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 12:25PM | 0 recs
Good point.

PLEO delegates are a whole 'nother system.

by Elsinora 2008-04-08 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Good point.

PLEOs are different from unpledged add-ons. The only PLEOs other than the superdelegates are the pledged PLEOs, who are chosen after the primary.  Edwards couldn't be a PLEO delegate unless he pledged to Clinton or Edwards.

by KCinDC 2008-04-08 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Good point.

Correction: Since he's not currently an elected official or (as far as I know) a party leader in NC, he couldn't be a PLEO delegate even then.

by KCinDC 2008-04-08 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Hillary picked up a Super Delegate from Arkansas today.  One more to add to her total.

by karajan72 2008-04-08 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Source?

She also lost one.

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Here.

by Denny Crane 2008-04-08 06:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

How much does out-of-conference strength of schedule count in these power rankings?

by Ray Radlein 2008-04-08 11:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Too much... we are trying to institute a playoff, but the state leaders are resisting.

by yitbos96bb 2008-04-08 11:56AM | 0 recs
Carter has basically endorsed Obama

Carter, who was accompanied by his wife Rosalynn, did not profess a direct support for Obama but rather choose to make a veiled statement.
"We are very interested in the primaries. Don't forget that Obama won in my state of Georgia. My town which is home to 625 people is for Obama, my children and their spouses are pro- Obama.
My grandchildren are also pro- Obama. As a Super Delegate, I would not disclose who I am rooting for but I leave you to make that guess," he said.
.

link: http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?i d=107611

by End game 2008-04-08 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted

Carter hates the Clintons, he is hardly an ambassador of goodwill in this race

by rossinatl 2008-04-08 11:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Dude, right now, some Virginian named "Carol Burke" just looked up and said "what? Did somebody say my name?"

by Lettuce 2008-04-08 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Carol Burke -- from the Virgin Islands, not Virginia!

And yeah, all the supers from the territories rank pretty low...

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 02:46PM | 0 recs
Control over other supers

Some supers matter ore than others because regulations give them large machine control over naming other superdelegates.  This isn't Carter-like soft power, but for example there is Art Torres, the Chair of the California State Democratic Committee.  He will have a large role in naming five other delegate votes, and I can't see freshmen reps competing with that...

by ogondai 2008-04-08 04:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Control over other supers

I gave state party chairs a slight bonus - but perhaps not enough.  But it's only substantial if the unpledged add-ons aren't announced yet.

In Oregon, for example, all the add-ons are already named - so the party chair has some power, but not as much as, say, Art Torres.

by karichisholm 2008-04-08 08:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Rahm has to be way high on that list. He has huge influence over a lot of the House, especially freshman and members in marginal districts. I'd put him over Dean even, and Carter isn't brimming with influence within the party. He is 4th on my list after Gore, Pelosi and Reid.

by pierredude 2008-04-08 04:21PM | 0 recs
Good work

Ive been very curious who these folks are.  Its nice to see a comprehensive list.

So thanks for putting this together.

by pattonbt 2008-04-08 06:20PM | 0 recs
Only 9?

I've gotta work on my mojo. No wonder I didn't get the limo with the mimosas and had to park a mile and a half away and walk to the Clinton rally in the rain.

by Jenny Greenleaf 2008-04-08 10:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

George Mitchell of Maine is probably peeved to be identified with New York.

One of the tricky things about a list like this is gaging 'respect'. For example, I think Seniority matters a lot in the senate and with a lot of media/establishment figures, so someone like Herb Kohl or Robert Byrd is likely to carry a lot of weight.

I also think people at either end of the political spectrum are likely to hurt a bit and that will blunt their impact. (While a Kucinich might help with one wing of the party, he will hurt with several others. I'm a lefty and he strikes me as batty).

On a similar level, anyone whose primary claim to fame is being the butt of jokes has suspect value.  (Think William Jefferson or Kucinich)

by alchemi 2008-04-08 10:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Interesting.  I hadn't noticed that on Mitchell.  Of course, he may actually be a delegate from New York now.  Bill Clinton is.

The source for the list is Wikipedia, so it might be wrong, or maybe not.

I'll look into that.

by karichisholm 2008-04-09 02:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Uncommitted Superdelegate Power Ranking

Democratic Convention Watch has a very extensive anaylsis of Super Delegates, who they are, who they have endorsed, and who is yet to commit.

I think you will find it very useful as a cross reference..

here's the link:

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/

by Why Not 2008-04-09 08:44PM | 0 recs

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