Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 07:43:38 AM EDT
Oregon has been assumed by many in the media to be an Obama-leaning state -- an assumption that was not backed up by public polling on the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Now, however, we finally have baseline numbers on the race from SurveyUSA:
Barack Obama: 52 percent
Hillary Clinton: 42 percent
Here's the analysis from SUSA:
Obama leads by 30 points among men. Clinton leads by 7 among women. A 37-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads among voters age 65+. Obama leads among voters younger than 65. Among Oregon Democrats focused on the economy, the candidates tie. Obama leads among voters focused on Iraq. Clinton leads, ever so slightly, among voters focused on health care. Clinton trails by 8 in greater Portland, trails by 16 in the rest of Oregon.
The overall margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, so Obama's lead in the Beaver state is statistically significant. However, Obama's advantage in the state, at least at this juncture, does not appear to be entirely overwhelming, and he is not necessarily on track to win by the 20-point margins (give or take a few points) he was winning by back in February.
Both campaigns seem to be taking the state fairly seriously at this juncture. This past weekend Clinton campaigned in the Portland area and Eugene, while previously Obama hit Portland, Eugene and Medford. Both campaigns also have staff and supporters who understand the unique all vote-by-mail system employed in the state that extends election day to election two weeks. So if the race is still roaring strong come the second week of May (following Indiana and North Carolina, in addition to Pennsylvania), there could be a real contest for Oregon between Clinton and Obama.