Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

Oregon has been assumed by many in the media to be an Obama-leaning state -- an assumption that was not backed up by public polling on the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Now, however, we finally have baseline numbers on the race from SurveyUSA:

Barack Obama: 52 percent
Hillary Clinton: 42 percent

Here's the analysis from SUSA:

Obama leads by 30 points among men. Clinton leads by 7 among women. A 37-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads among voters age 65+. Obama leads among voters younger than 65. Among Oregon Democrats focused on the economy, the candidates tie. Obama leads among voters focused on Iraq. Clinton leads, ever so slightly, among voters focused on health care. Clinton trails by 8 in greater Portland, trails by 16 in the rest of Oregon.

The overall margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, so Obama's lead in the Beaver state is statistically significant. However, Obama's advantage in the state, at least at this juncture, does not appear to be entirely overwhelming, and he is not necessarily on track to win by the 20-point margins (give or take a few points) he was winning by back in February.

Both campaigns seem to be taking the state fairly seriously at this juncture. This past weekend Clinton campaigned in the Portland area and Eugene, while previously Obama hit Portland, Eugene and Medford. Both campaigns also have staff and supporters who understand the unique all vote-by-mail system employed in the state that extends election day to election two weeks. So if the race is still roaring strong come the second week of May (following Indiana and North Carolina, in addition to Pennsylvania), there could be a real contest for Oregon between Clinton and Obama.

Tags: Democratic primaries, Oregon, Oregon Primary (all tags)

Comments

15 Comments

Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

Obama's edge there can be evidenced by matchups vs. McCain:
Obama v McCain:
http://www.pollster.com/08-OR-Pres-GE-Mv O.php
Clinton v McCain:
http://www.pollster.com/08-OR-Pres-GE-Mv C.php

I'm surprised Oregon isn't bluer than this. Hillary actually loses it in most polling so far. As a Californian, my perception has always been that Oregan is a more liberal place than CA.

by LandStander 2008-04-08 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

I'm with you LandStander. I too am a Californian and have always thought Oregon was a liberal state.

Anybody know where they're hiding all their Republicans?

by SFValues 2008-04-08 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

Maybe somewhere deep in the untamed wilderness? Certainly not in Portland or Ashland.

by LandStander 2008-04-08 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

Either SUSA is proving it's Muster in PA with this poll or it's going to be debunked as not the gold standard.

the Q Poll today showed continued tightening, which feels right.

With Hilary's problems I can't see how she's closing.

Personally, I think SUSA is mortal. I think their Oregon Number is low by 5 points and their PA number is off by 10 points...  they've goofed a few this year so far

by KathyM 2008-04-08 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

I don't think one state poll effects the other, right now their PA one would be seem to be an outlier, but I don't think that effects their Oregon poll, since its different people they are polling.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-08 07:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll
I'll be willing to bet that if Obama is up 10 in the OR poll, that he'll win the state by another 5-8 pts. Q has Clinton up 5 in PA. The new SUSA poll has her up 18. Crazy. I still think the margin will be over 10, under 15.
by alex100 2008-04-08 08:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll
I love how obama people pick and choose among the polls. here they are picking and choosing among polls from the same pollster, discounting the one they don't like and accepting as accurate the one they like.
 SUSA has proven to be the most accurate (or one of the most accurate)of the pollsters.  I suspect this Orgegon poll is right on the money and am surprised Obama does not have a bigger lead.  I suspect that they are right on the money in PA also.  They were dead on right in CA, OH, MA, RI and more.  
by ulsterdem 2008-04-08 08:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

I love how obama people pick and choose among the polls.

And I love how you (A Hillary person, I suppose?) simply cannot stop yourself from calling out "obama people".

It is amazing how much more legitimate your point would seem if you simply cut out those first two sentences - you know, the part where you make unfounded, sweeping generalizations about "obama people".

by LandStander 2008-04-08 08:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

When front page diarist Jerome Armstrong has made such derogatory generalizations about "Obama supporters," it's to be expected some would ape him.

by Kobi 2008-04-08 10:16AM | 0 recs
leads and gaps
Why is it that in each primary, as time passes, Obama's numbers go up in relation to Hillary? She has lost or seen diminished every sizable lead that she has had.
Is it that the more people see Obama the more they like him? Or is it that the opposite is true for Hillary?
by danfromny 2008-04-08 09:10AM | 0 recs
early polls in WI and VA

gave him smaller leads than the one he has in Oregon right now. Now, Clinton will be able to contest Oregon, but I don't think she'll be able to shrink the margin. With the exception of Ohio and Texas theres nowhere where Clinton has managed to increase the margin from early poll results.

by niq 2008-04-08 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

The SUSA poll seems about right from my perspective in Portland. Oregon was regarded as a purple state in the late 1980s and 1990s, and is slowly trending bluer. (And before that, Oregon was pretty reliably Republican in national elections.)

I think the stronger support for Clinton in the Portland area is in part because of the concentration of traditional party Democrats here, especially union members and leadership, and the concentration of professional women in the metropolitan area, for whom Clinton has served as a focus of their very real frustrations and aspirations.

Outside the metro area, the rest of the state's Democrats are spread through the Willamette Valley (thinning as one proceeds south)and lightly along the coast and in Eastern Oregon. The University of Oregon is in Eugene and OSU is in Corvallis.

Oregon has had a long history of politicians that have broken the mold in one way or another. Tom McCall (R) was a governor who stood firmly for the environment and famously told the rest of the country to visit but not stay. Wayne Morse (R, Independent, D) was a very early opponent of the Vietnam war. Mark Hatfield (R) was a moderate US Senator who was consistent in his belief in the sanctity of life, as evidenced by his war opposition, his opposition to the death penalty, and his opposition to abortion.  All of these non-conformist politicians were re-elected again and again by Oregon voters.

I suspect that Obama may appeal to this model in Oregon. He can address very practical politics but can also speak to people's aspirations for the country.

Regarding Clinton, my impression is that the venom of anti-Clintonism that is so strong in some parts of the country never became quite so concentrated here. It certainly exists, but I recall that Bill stayed pretty high in the Oregon polls even in his darkest hours.

I think that Obama still has a lot of room to grow in Oregon. Clinton probably faces a tougher fight, but if she pulls out decisive victories in Pennsylvania and Indiana her star should brighten here.

The biggest thing is that, at least of a moment, it looks like Oregon voters might actually have a voice in choosing the nominee.

On that note, I should add that I have very limited sympathy for the parties in Florida and Michigan. In 2004, Florida's primary was on March 9 and Michigan's was on March 7. From this end of the primary calendar, moving those dates up even further for even more influence seems pretty piggish. It really shows the desperate need to gain a national consensus on the schedule, with rotating regional primaries of some kind. I also don't see why we have to pusssyfoot around Iowa and New Hampshire. Nothing came down from God saying that those states should eternally come first.

by anoregonreader 2008-04-08 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

Pretty surprised Obama's lead here isn't larger, though we'll see how well he does come election day.

Really, if he can't appeal big time to white voters in a state like OR, which should be as friendly an environment as he could want, and get a pretty massive win here to help compensate for his major losses of white voters elsewhere in the nation, what's going to carry him in the general?

Just in case no one has noticed, there are actually many more white than black voters in the country at large, especially when you get outside the Democratic Party.

by frankly0 2008-04-08 11:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll

Dem's don't win the white vote, I'm sorry but it doesn't happen Clitnon didn't win a 50% of the white vote in 1996 for god's sake.  FranklyO I do love hwo regardless of the results you assume all news is bad for Obama, up 10 in OR-- oh that's not enough, if he wins in white states likie IA, MN and WI mostly by landslide margins: who cares? But hey if Clinton's up in pa, "Obama is Doomed!" You're Baghdad Bob my man.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-08 03:03PM | 0 recs
Clinton was there

the field dates were 4/4 -4/6. Hillary, Bill AND Chelsea were all in Oregon, and Hillary was very visible on the 5th. That MIGHT have had something to do with it.

Far more interesting, to me, are the results of the OR Senate primary, from the same poll:

Novick 23
Neville 12
Merkley 11
Others 14

Merkley is the DSCC-backed candidate, but Novick continues to gain traction. Previous polling showed the race even with about 70% undecided; the unknowns are still 40%, but with that new 30% Novick has increased his lead markedly.

by torridjoe 2008-04-08 12:05PM | 0 recs

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