What Momentum Looks Like

With six days until next Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, Hillary Clinton seems to have translated her win in Pennsylvania into a real shift in momentum, a somewhat surprising turn of events considering this race has been largely momentum-proof. It began with a shift in the media narrative following her win from "what is she still doing in this thing?" to "why can't Obama seal the deal?" and continued with what seemed like 4 uninterrupted days of Reverend Wright's sabotage tour, which went unanswered until Tuesday. It was perfect storm for Clinton who has seen a boost in several metrics.

  • In North Carolina, Obama's 4-poll average lead pre-PA was 15%, today it's 10%.
  • In Indiana , whereas Obama led in the 3 polls directly leading up to the Pennsylvania primary and the one immediately following it, Clinton has been ahead in three of the last 4 polls in the state.
  • Nationally, the shift toward Clinton has been most dramatic in the Newsweek poll, which showed her closing Obama's 19 point lead pre-Pennsylvania to just a 7 point lead after it. As for the tracking polls, since April 22, Gallup's results have shifted from Obama up 8 to Clinton up 1 and Rasmussen now has Obama up 4 whereas he was up 8 on primary day.
  • In another reversal, Clinton is now performing better against McCain than Obama is in both the Rasmussen and Gallup head to head match-up tracking polls.
  • Public perception seems to have changed as well judging by InTrade, which showed Clinton's likelihood of winning the nomination go from 12% to 25% in a week (just about where the Rasmussen trading markets have her.)

All of which is to say that Hillary Clinton has had a very good week, but the true test of momentum will only come next Tuesday. Can Clinton sustain it in an environment that has seen upward shifts shift back in mere days? Barack Obama is doing what he can to stem this turning tide of course, first through his denouncement of Reverend Wright yesterday and then via the roll out of several endorsements yesterday and today to project strength and confidence to superdelegates. But what about actual voters?

Here's Gallup's take from last night's polling results:

Tuesday, Obama attempted to put the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy behind him by denouncing his former pastor's recent comments in the media. Tuesday night's interviews show no immediate impact of Obama's remarks on voter preferences.

It's too soon to tell the full impact of Obama's speech, of course, and it's too soon to know just how many superdelegate endorsements Obama will net this week, but there's certainly  enough time for things to shift back. It's true, of course, that every other time Clinton has exhibited any sign of momentum it's been fleeting and Obama has been able to shift it back, but this looks and feels different.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

195 Comments

Re: What Momentum Looks Like

In what respect does this "look and feel different"?

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Very good week and it's just Wednesday . . .

. . . let me add the remaining senses to this sensory smorgasbord...

. . . smells, tastes and sounds different too . . .

. . . and what about that all time favorite Extra Sensory Perception (ESP), clairvoyantly is different.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

It's also "toon soon to tell" whether any of this actually matters at this point.  Absent something that fundamentally changes the dynamics of this race -- and literally makes Obama objectively unelectable -- every super delegate that comes out for Obama makes Clinton's path to the nomination more tenuous.

Now, can she still win?  Sure.  But this kind of momentum would have done her a lot more good earlier in the primary cycle.  In other words, I'm just not sure that "momentum" means an awful lot at this juncture.  

by HSTruman 2008-04-30 12:06PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Momentum means everything in these closing weeks of the campaign. Electability is everything. Pledged delegates and popular votes only count for so much. Obama had the big Mo early on when people didn't know who he really was. Now that they have a better idea, Hillary has the big Mo.

It's all about electoral votes and Hillary is demonstrating she can get them and she can win in November. That's all that matters.

Also, all the votes from FL and MI must be considered because they, too, go to electability. Obama has done poorly in the states necessary to win.

Sorry but Obama's supporters are going to have to get used to the idea that Hillary may well be our nominee.

by Nobama 2008-04-30 12:13PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Nope. Sorry. Delegates are all that matter in the primary.

Delegates. It's how we choose the Democratic nominee.

No other metric matters. It still hasn't changed.

Maybe the other metrics will sway superdelegates. Some are, some aren't. But unless that changes the delegate count in a meaningful way, she'll need more than Mo to make the difference.

Like runaway Acela Mo. Don't see that happening yet.

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

How delegates vote at the convention.

Not what delegates say before the convention.

Obama is in much more hurt than appears.

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

You really think pledged delegates, who are chosen by the individual campaigns from their most ardent supporters, are going to change their minds?

Good luck with that.

And while Supers can change their minds, the ones that have have gone in one direction. And it's not to Hillary.

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

In Obama's camp, the hands are startin' to wring and soon the tears will start to flow, just 6 more days

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

After Tuesday, Hillary will be 140 delegates behind, and Obama will be less than 200 away from clinching the nomination. After the rest of the primaries, less than 100, maybe 75. Hillary, meanwhile, will need 150 or more, even if she claims this so-called "momentum."

Tears? Doubt it.

by jbill 2008-04-30 12:34PM | 0 recs
Wishful thinking

You guys said that after Wright, after "bitter," after everything that looked like it might be slightly negative for Obama.

Every time, he bounced back just fine.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Wishful thinking

Uh, Obama hasn't bounced back from anything. His numbers have been in decline for a while now, even before PastorGate and BitterGate. His demographics are eroding, as seen in PA.

NC and IN will offer further proof that Obama hasn't a chance in the general. If he's perceived to be a weak GE candidate, the SDs will move to Hillary en masse. His pledged delegates could even move to her at the convention.

Few politicians running in November will want to be seen as having anything to do with Obama.

by Nobama 2008-04-30 12:38PM | 0 recs
wow...

the spin...the spin

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 12:45PM | 0 recs
I think the AP had it right as 'infatuation'

that is fading, for want of substance..

Obama could prevent some of it. But he would have to start giving specifics that would by necessity prevent people from projecting their hopes onto him.. to please one group, he has to alienate another.. etc.

That's life..

There is no there there..

by architek 2008-04-30 12:59PM | 0 recs
thank you for your opinion

please be advised that might necessarily reflect reality.

by kindthoughts 2008-04-30 02:54PM | 0 recs
"Demographics are eroding"

He cut Clinton's lead in half and his demographics are eroding?

Sorry, you are clearly obsessed with the prospect of hating Obama.  Why else would you name yourself "Nobama?"

I think you're secretly in love with him, and in a few weeks will change your name to "GOBAMA!"

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Wishful thinking

But he improved in PA vs. OH in every demographic, so wouldn't that kind of make you a disingenous moron?

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Delegates will decide by June. They won't switch later.  

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

You are probably correct but I think there is a chance it won't be decided by June ....

Clinton is likely to win everything except NC and OR before June. Unless Obama has a very strong result from NC he will be behind in the popular vote counting MI and FL (and possibly even excluding MI).

In that situation it will very tough for the super delegates to decide before MI and FL are resolved and before John Edwards decides for whom his delegates will vote.

If Clinton should somehow win NC and OR (not very likely) then I think it's fair to say we'll go all the way to the convention with Clinton the likely nominee.

by kristoph 2008-04-30 12:53PM | 0 recs
I've heard good things about Colorado

There's some word that Obama even puts Colorado in play for the general.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: I've heard good things about Colorado

Obama neeeeeeds Colorado

He loses Ohio, Pa, Florida, possibly NJ, possibly California

Obama neeeeeeds Colorado

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 04:30PM | 0 recs
Re: I've heard good things about Colorado

Obama polls better againt McCain in NJ and CA than Clinton. And he will win PA. OH will probably go to him as well considering the economy McCain's inability to bring out the Jesus vote.  Florida is the only state that Obama cannot win (mostly because of age) and Clinton can.

by elrod 2008-04-30 04:47PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Clinton is likely to win everything except NC and OR before June.

Um, yeah Hill's not winning MT, she might win SD though history argues against it, but she's not winnign Montana.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Delegates don't need to decide in June

Dean, Pelosi, Obama

Thats who neeeeeeeeeeeed a decision in June

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Good point, we could go all the way to the cionvention the only ones it hurts are those who don't want McCain to win.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:03PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

We will go all the way to the convention.  

The Super Delegates may have their say in June but the Voters will let them know how they feel in July and the Supers better change their position to accomodate...

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 04:28PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I don't have to get used to anything. I've always thought that Clinton could be the nominee.

That said, I think it's pretty unlikely. But lots of unlikely things have happened in my lifetime -- and the top three most odd political events of my adult lifetime are that the Reagan administration sold arms to Iran, President Clinton had sex with an intern in the WH, and the Supreme Court stopped a state from counting votes and thereby gave the presidency to George W. Bush.

So if those things could happen, it's certainly possible Clinton could get the nomination.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

And Hillary supporters are going to have to find a way to replace the AA, youth, and intellectual voters who will stay home if that happens.

The fact is, Obama is facing several opponents--the GOP, Hillary (who seems to be in concert with the GOP), his former pastor, the Candidan government...  I mean the list is endless.  I've never seen a candidate have to endure so much... and yet, he is still standing... and still sticking to a "clean" campaign, instead of taking the low road like his opponents are doing to him...

That's real toughness!  

by LordMike 2008-04-30 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Clinton does not need the AA vote or the youth vote to win FL, OH and PA and she won't lose any core democratic states because of these groups.

I bet Bayh will deliver IN and with him on the ticker I think there is a good chance she can take that state also.

The biggest impact would be on down ticket races where the AA vote is critical to the candidate. I do think there would be a much lower AA turn out from AA voters and, to a lesser extent, the youth voters, but it's not like other democrats will turn away.

Obviously if she chooses Obama as VP those problems go away but if there is another Wright blowup he might be too toxic.

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by kristoph 2008-04-30 01:00PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Um, no she can't win PA with lowered AA turnout, look at Rendell's victory, and realize that the map he won is pretty much Obama's PA map (Rendell only won like 10 counties, or 3 more than Obama), then realize that she'll get destroyed with lowered AA turnout, the smae thing is true in Ohio, hell she's already liekly to lose MI due to AA turnout (there's a reason that Obama is shown winning MI and Hillary losing it even on this site), FL is possilbe buty dicey with lowered AA turnout, if youth turnout falls as well she's pretty mcuh screwed.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:06PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Um, yes she will.  PA rural voters seem to be the key in that state for this cycle.  Right now: Yes, it does look like different groups could switch out if their person doesn't get the nod.  So...please remember the voting and working (in the precincts and party) role of us women of a certain age.  We are strong in numbers as well.

by christinep 2008-04-30 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

No. Without strong AA vote, Clinton loses PA, MI, OH and probably IL, NJ and FL. You do realize that Bill Clinton would have come very close to losing to Bob Dole in 1996 if not for large African American voting. Polls in PA showed only 55% of blacks going to Clinton in November. There aren't enough older white women to offset those normally guaranteed Democratic votes.

by elrod 2008-04-30 04:50PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

You might want to look at percentages again for each demographic in the general.  It is legitimate to ask how many older white women (who do vote in large numbers) will vote McCain if Hillary is not the nominee vs how many come home in the end.  By the same token, it is also legit to ask the same question about the AA demographic if she is the nominee.  By the by: Lets not talk about what we say, but what history says happens in the end.

by christinep 2008-04-30 05:03PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Falsely labeling your opponent as a racist is running a "clean" campaign?

And he's not particularly tough.  The media has treated him with kid gloves until very recently.  When the media and the DNC leadership are salivating over you as though you're the second coming of christ, you can't really judge a person's toughness.  It seems to me that when things don't go his way, he sulks.  That's not tough in my book.  

by RobinLB 2008-04-30 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I don't believe that's at all accurate.  As I recall, Hillary led all of the early polling in the last few YEARS leading up to the campaigns.  As voters got to know Obama more over time, he closed the gaps and took the lead in time for the primaries.

People have had a lot longer to gauge Hillary.  Her disapproval numbers don't budge.  The "Obama has done poorly in states necessary to win" meme is weak.  If you doubt he'd win NY, California, and by the way, he DID win Texas, then might I suggest you lay your money on the Kansas City Royals to win the World Series.

by Jenius 2008-04-30 12:26PM | 0 recs
Disapproval numbers

Actually her negative ratings have gone up at least 10% over the course of the campaign, by most estimates.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Disapproval numbers

... and yet she is doing better than Obama versus McCain in virtually every recent poll.

by kristoph 2008-04-30 01:01PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like


Hooray for Hillary!

She has the big Mo!

So happy to see that after all this time.

We're about to donate more to her campaign while we can still get the matching funds.

Thanks to all of Hillary's supporters who are helping to make Hillary's success possible!

by Nobama 2008-04-30 12:07PM | 0 recs
Neew Fox News Dynamics Poll...

Clinton leads McCain by 1, but Obama loses to McCain by 3.

by handsomegent 2008-04-30 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Does this mean when Clinton loses NC we get to ask why she can't close things out?

Is the fact that Obama has collected more superdelegate endorsements than Clinton since PA meaningless?

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

No, Marshmallow Smores (my daughter loves smores)

What it means is that when Clinton smokes IN, and eeks a win out in NC you'll see an impressive flow of Supers to her, which is what should of happened had Obama done better in PA.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I thought that should have happened after PA? Or Ohio? Or Super Tuesday? Or before any of the primaries took place?

But if she ekes out a victory in North Carolina, I'll admit that's a huge loss for Obama, although I still don't see how that changes the math. And dude, I'd never make that bet.

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

We need to triangulate here.

We're talking about 'momentum' not delegate 'math'.  Apparently, delegates no longer matter ;-)

To be fair, I don't read Todd's post as relating to math or catching up in delegates etc (and not saying you read it that way either).

Bigger question would be: if you can't catch up, what use is momentum beyond convincing superdelegates to override the will of the people?  Oh, wait, hmmmm.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

She did claim to be a "fighter."

I just didn't think she meant "against her own party."

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I'd agree with that.  If she wins in NC, then we can start talking about real momentum.  

Too bad for HRC this 'momentum' is coming so late in the game.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

It's never too late in the game.  Supers are free agents - then can switch their support at will to whatever horse they see can cross the finish line ahead of McBush. . . it's all about Electability baby. . .

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

HRC's only argument now is electability.

But I do think the supers would need a very, very, very good reason to override the pledged delegate count (and let's keep MI & FL out of the discussion, I want a DNC-sanctioned solution there).  

If the 'reason' is just that HRC seems a bit more electable than BO, then that is an invitation to disaster (my opinion), especially if the perception by many Dems is that HRC 'made' BO unelectable.

Not trying to ignite an argument here.  I think we agree on the big picture (i.e. it is all down to the supers now and a win in NC is probably the best 'pure' argument HRC can make for the nomination).

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

If polls numbers in June decided the nominee, Bill Clinton would have never been chosen as the nominee.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Hopefully, we'll learn from our mistake in 1992 and not nominate someone unelectable.  Or something.

Bill brings this up when defending why HRC should stay in the race.  Which kinda seems to undermine some of the "Obama is toxic waste" unelectability arguments.  

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 12:56PM | 0 recs
nope

"HRC's only argument now is electability."

that and more people have voted for her.

by TeresaInPa 2008-04-30 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: nope

Counting michigan is a sure sign of a disingenuous argument.  And even if she "wins" the popular vote (a silly measure since some states are caucuses), the competition is for delegates, not popular votes.  Those are the rules as both candidates have always known.  

You Hillary people touting the popular vote in the primary are simultaneously yammering about how Hillary is the only one who can win the key electoral college states in November.  Some modicum of consistency would really be nice.

by snaktime 2008-04-30 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Very true. Although for that to happen, Obama would need to be caught shtupping Rev. Wright on Bill Ayer's front porch while Tony Rezko did something else very unlikely but I'm too exhausted to finish the gag.

Seriously, that's like being down 31-7  for an interception touchdown and 2 point conversion, followed by an on-side kick run in for a touchdown and a second 2 point conversion, followed by a second on-side kick run in for a third touchdown and 2 point conversion -- after which the game goes to overtime, you win the toss and promptly run the football and the coin in for a touchdown.

Could happen. But would the magic space ponies allow it?

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like
Didn't Buffalo do that in the playoffs back in 1993?

And then they lost the Super Bowl 52-17.

I wonder, is there any analogy we could draw to the primaries and GE?
by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I saw that game. Dallas Broke Washingtons undefeated streak at Washingtons last home game of the season. I was on the 50 yard line. I was a Redskins fan but it was still a great game. Was that 1990? By the way everyone thought Memphis had the national championship locked and the Lady Vol's could not go all the way for an eighth championship this year. Who'd of figured?

Go Lady Vol's! Eight in '08 feels great.

by RedstateLib 2008-04-30 05:36PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I feel the moementum swinging Obama's way already.  When I get this excited feeling there is usually something to it.  The reviews have been great for Obama and I am really happy today for Obama.  Super delegates are still moving his way, and most AA leaders feel that he did the right thing to move away from Rev Wright.

by Spanky 2008-04-30 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Like blowing against a strong wind...

=)

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Is it an excited feeling up your leg like Chris Matthews?

After May 6 - Supers have their cover to go Hillary.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

But what will the unicorns do? Won't someone think of the unicorns?

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:24PM | 0 recs
The only momentum HRC has...

is going back to the senate.  Unless she plan on stealing this nomination, then she is totally, DOA.

by tracey webb 2008-04-30 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: The only momentum HRC has...

Nobody's going to steal the nomination.  

Why so Obama supporters always think she's going to "steal" it.  This is similar to the claims that she's racist--totally unfounded.  

by RobinLB 2008-04-30 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The only momentum HRC has...

The reason people think she's going to "steal" the nomination is because she's advocating the SDs award her the nomination even if/when she ends the contest:

a) Trailing in pledged delegates
b) Trailing in states won
c) Trailing in popular vote

That's why.

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-30 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Donate to Obama now to stop this from continuing!!!

by Bobby Obama 2008-04-30 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Thanks for the suggestion, $50 more coming to Hillary.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Thank you for contributing to Obama's GE fund.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-30 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I think the only real game-changer will be if Clinton wins NC. Not a single-digit loss, not a close finish, but just a win. A simple 50+1 win. Everything else is transient.

The fundamentals are still with an Obama primary win.

by VAAlex 2008-04-30 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I agree.  If Clinton wins NC, then that would indeed be a game-changer and bring Obama's electability into (what I consider legitimate) question.

The next question would be whether Obama backers would blame HRC for making Obama unelectable and stay home in the GE.  That is a question to which I don't think anyone of us knows the answer right now.  

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

"The next question would be whether Obama backers would blame HRC for making Obama unelectable and stay home in the GE.  That is a question to which I don't think anyone of us knows the answer right now."

I do!  Yes, they will stay home, especially the AA voters.

by LordMike 2008-04-30 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

And an equal number of HRC backers will stay home if Obama wins.  

Not a good situation.  

by RobinLB 2008-04-30 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

If Clinton loses by every metric and her supporters stay home, that's just sour grapes.  They won't have a leg to stand on.

If Obama's ahead by every metric and Clinton somehow gets the nomination, his supporters will have a pretty legitimate beef with Clinton, and I wouldn't blame them for not supporting her.

That said, if Clinton wins NC, I agree that's potentially game-changing, and opens a path of legitimacy up for her.  Her big problem, though, is that NC is pretty much must-win.  If she doesn't win that, she really won't have a legitimate path to the nomination.  Even winning OR at that point won't really do it IMO.

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-30 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

If Obama wins it by receiving a larger number of pledged delegates and popular votes, and the SDs swing to him in large enough numbers that even seating MI and FL would not change the result... do you still feel Clinton supporters would feel the result was unfair?  Would they still stay home in large numbers?

Just curious.

by protothad 2008-04-30 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Your scenario is the only scenario that would legitamize an Obama victory.  No self-respecting democrat should have any thoughts about not fully supporting Obama if that scenario occurs.

However, if MI and FL are not dealt with fairly wrt Hillary based on the 2.2 million American voters that voted for her like you did and I will. Or she wins the popular vote and the Superdelegates still give it to him, I'm afraid that a lot of Reagan democrats and working class whites may not support him viewing it as illegitimate.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 02:52PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Reagan democrats aren't going to support Hillary either... their' REAGAN DEMOCRATS!  They are already going for McCain!

by LordMike 2008-04-30 04:24PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I suspect the late breaking superdelegates will swing large toward the candidate that is perceived as the winner, assuring a margin that makes FL and MI less important and gives the 'legitimacy' the voters want.  Whichever way it goes, there will be some hurt feelings and some people will stay home in Novemember, but I expect/hope most Dems will rally behind the nominee.  We need a unified party in the GE.

For the record, I voted for Obama in the WI primary, but I'll back the Dem in November even if we run a tree stump with a rusty bucket as the VP.  ;)

by protothad 2008-04-30 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I guess my feeling is that things might seem a little different in October than they do now.  That's why I don't think we know right now.

But.... I think it may be worse than AA voters staying home.  Taking the nomination away from Obama and handing it to Clinton would give the Republicans a huge opening to attract socially conservative AA voters for the foreseeable future.  

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-30 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Why should NC count for so much?  Supers who are intelligent will be looking at how the candidates perform among the different demographics in NC.  NC is a big state but it is pretty solidly Republican in the GE.

by mikes101 2008-04-30 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Because, as I've argued for a while now, Clinton has been at best 'holding the line'. And for someone who is behind, in a defensive posture, she needs to make up some ground and go on the offensive and put up some big -- and unexpected -- wins to get back into the thick of things.

As it is, she has 'held the line' -- she won PA. That's about it. Superdelegates are still favoring Obama, and the overall delegate count is essentially frozen -- with a slight bleed toward Obama.

NC is important because it would be a wake-up call. Something would be seriously amiss if Obama didn't win NC. He will, though.

by VAAlex 2008-04-30 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

That's fine, except I think expecting Hillary to win NC is ludicrous.  If I was a superdelegate, I would be more concerned about GE prospects than whether Hillary can make up the pledged delegate gap by winning a solid Republican state in a primary.  As such, the only thing I would be interested in NC would be margin and how AAs and working-class white people are voting, as well as the percentages of each that say they will back the other if nominated.  If certain demographics are even more turned off by Obama than they were in Ohio and PA, then yes, I can still hand the nomination to Obama.  But I do so knowing full well that I am headed for likely November defeat.

That said, if Hillary wins NC, I think it is curtains for Obama.  So maybe we're not that far off in our views...

by mikes101 2008-04-30 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Alex is correct.

The narrative up to now has been each side holding serve on the states that favors each demographically, the have won what their supposed to win or win a tossup state like IN.

A Clinton win in NC (an Obama favorable demograpic) the narrative finally changes.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Yeah, I think we're on the same page, and you're absolutely right -- expecting Hillary to win NC is ludicrous. Which is why it would be a huge deal and would make many take notice if it happened. :)

by VAAlex 2008-04-30 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I guess my point is if Clinton wins Indiana by close to 10 or so (maybe even just >5) and loses NC by under 5, and there is evidence of further erosion of white support of Obama, I think that is also evidence of momentum.  I don't think an outright win in NC is actually that important.

by mikes101 2008-04-30 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Actually, polls suggest Obama puts it in play in the GE. Hillary doesn't though.

by jbill 2008-04-30 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

NC will be no more in play for Dems than NJ will be for GOP.  

by RobinLB 2008-04-30 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Show me a poll from the last few days that says that.

by mikes101 2008-04-30 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I agree with you that a Clinton win in NC (combined, presumably, with a Clinton win in IN) would be a major game-changer.  If that were to take place, Clinton could conceivably sweep the last 10 states and go into the convention with unstoppable momentum, even if she still trails in pledged delegates.

However, I don't think that's her only path to the nomination.  A solid win in Indiana combined with a much closer than expected loss there, followed up by huge victories in WV and KY and surprise victories in one or two other states, could still leave her in good shape going into the convention.

by markjay 2008-04-30 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

There's many a slip betwixt the cup and the lip, but it says right here that if Clinton can hang onto the momentum from here to the Convention, the nomination is hers.  That's a lot to ask, but that's all it takes.

by Trickster 2008-04-30 12:11PM | 0 recs
I think Obama is not going to perform

well on Tuesday, this Wright thing has really gotten out of hand and will make him a poor GE candidate.  It will sink in by Tuesday, and Clinton will be ahead in the popular vote by the last primary's end.

Then Obama will have to revisit the mess of Florida and MI.

by Molee 2008-04-30 12:13PM | 0 recs
You overestimate

The media narrative seems to be turning in Obama's favor over Wright after his angry disavowal.

I think he's in better shape than you think.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

If they split NC and IN - which is most likely - the race is called a tie and they move on.  

Then Clinton wins WV.  The next week, the most likely scenario is that they split KY and OR.  If so, it's pretty likely that on that day, Obama ends up with a majority of pledged delegates.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Let me explain: After KY and OR, Obama will likely end up with a majority of all possible pledged delegates from DNC sanctioned contests.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

"The next week, the most likely scenario is that they split KY and OR.  If so, it's pretty likely that on that day, Obama ends up with a majority of pledged delegates."

Do you have any idea what kind of margins Hillary is pulling in Kentucky?  May 20th is not going to yield a net win of pledged delegates for Barack Obama.  If Obama doesn't absolutely trounce Hillary in North Carolina by over 20%, her lead in the remaining contests will be out of control.  

You have to think about things like states' populations, amount of delegates, and candidates' margins of victory.  The Indiana voter ID (aka voter suppression law) that the Supreme Court upheld yesterday is estimated to reduce AA votes by 20% in Indiana.  If that happens, Hillary will win by double digits.    

by BPK80 2008-04-30 12:23PM | 0 recs
He only needs 45% or so

By May 20, Obama only needs something like 45% of the remaining pledged delegates to come out with the lead.

Which is to say, Clinton would need to win by over 10 points everywhere to prevent it.  Kentucky can only cover so much.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: He only needs 45% or so

We're looking at Clinton blowouts in West Virginia, Kentucky, in Puerto Rico.

Indiana could be anywhere from a narrow Obama win to Clinton + 12.

North Carolina was supposed to be a huge Obama firewall, something like +25% but to everyone's surprise it's now teetering on single digits.  

Oregon is a wild card.  The demographics of Oregon's primary base vis-a-vis Washington's primary suggests a tie.  The fact that Clinton has the momentum now favors her.  

South Dakota and Montana are primaries in regions that have never held primaries (aside from Utah).  Everything else was a caucus.  

The +200,000 vote Pennsylvania victory set into motion the events for Hillary's dream scenario, which right now is Obama's nightmare scenario.  
Wright and Bittergate coming back in commercials now and for the foreseeable future if Obama wins just compounds things.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 03:42PM | 0 recs
Re: He only needs 45% or so

Consider this - a 2 million turnout in NC is not at all out of the question, given the increase in Dem and Independent voter registrations. Penn is a bigger state, but NC allows independents to vote in the Dem primary.

Maybe HRC has closed the gap, maybe not (it's very hard to imagine that Obama would only get 30% of the white vote, 8% lower than even blue collar Penn, that SUSA claims in their recent crosstabs).

If he pulls out a 9-10% win, and given the AA population in NC it's hard to see how he wouldn't, it's likely he will land as many popular votes as Penn (~200K ish).

by tysonpublic 2008-04-30 04:51PM | 0 recs
Re: He only needs 45% or so

Given NC's open primary, high turnout and a 9% victory would give Obama almost a 200K margin.  Your math is sound.  It's refreshing to see some honest analysis coming from both sides on this issue.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 09:12PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Oh, so as a Clinton supporter, you're counting on voter suppression of blacks to help her in Indiana.

You, and you asshat friends just outed yourselves. For shame.

I'll hold my breath for Alegre to disavow your statement.

by BarackStar 2008-04-30 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

No, this is nonsense.

The Voter ID ruling is bad for our party.  Can I not just state the fact that its effect will be more pronounced on Obama or is that "too offensive"?  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 03:48PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Are you reqally thinking the SC ruling is a good thing, I mean you do realize that in the general it will kill us as a party right?

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

The SC ruling is bad for the Dem party.  I don't know why you think I support or agree with it.  I was simply pointing out its existence.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 03:49PM | 0 recs
You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

Obama's got the math wrapped up!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/30/ 153347/205/974/506527

by LoneStarLefty 2008-04-30 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

But he is failing Geography.

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

All that matters is civics.

As in, in the Democratic Party, the candidate with the most delegates wins the nomination.

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

Most delegates on the day of the convention.

Pledged Delegates can vote any way they choose in the convention.

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

Typo meant super delegates

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 01:01PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

The point is the pledged delegates are, in MyDD terms, not just Kool Aide drinkers, but freebasers. They blow the smoke into a paperbag, and then breathe it back in to make sure they got every last crystal, and emerge even more sober for it.

The Clinton side? Let's just say that W didn't snort nearly as much powder as her delegates do the Clinton Kool Aid. I think they lace theirs with some kind trippy psychotropic mushroom though, which makes them think that any pledged delegates would ever switch votes.

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 04:57PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

And what does that even mean?

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

Electability.

by RJEvans 2008-04-30 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

That diary was like the caveman's chart of imaginary pro-Obama calculations.

Loses points for pretending MI/FL don't exist and loses points for pretending Hillary is only going to gain 20 delegates in the remaining 9 contests.  At this rate, she'll probably get 20 delegates from Kentucky alone.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

KY is one state and Obama wins delegates from others.

Oh, and for Clinton to be +20 in KY she has to do better than 2-1 in the state when one takes into account the congressional delegation allocation.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

The only states Obama is expected to win from here to the end are NC.

Oregon and Montana are ostensibly Obama country but no one has polled either.

Clinton is leading Obama 63 to 27 in KY so that's better than 2-1 actually.

by kristoph 2008-04-30 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

"Oh, and for Clinton to be +20 in KY she has to do better than 2-1 in the state when one takes into account the congressional delegation allocation."

Check the RCP for Kentucky and for further edification, look up its demographics.  

Even the biggest cities in Kentucky are nowhere near as progressive as Pittsburgh, PA, which Obama lost by 9 points.  Obama got trounced in the Pitts suburbs and even lost suburban Philadelphia.

There is simply no support for Barack Obama's vision anywhere in Kentucky.  It's going to be the Obama nightmare scenario of Western Maryland meets Western Pennsylvania meets Southern Ohio meets rural Tennessee with a new week of Wright controversy all over the airwaves.

He will be lucky to get 33% of the vote there.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 03:57PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

Not necessarily true. Obama will win Louisville. And Lexington has a large student population. Clinton will do strongest in coal country in eastern KY and around Paducah in the West. Northern KY will be closer than people think. Remember, Obama won Hamilton County, OH, which is much like northern KY.

I predict Clinton wins KY 58-42.

by elrod 2008-04-30 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: You guyz failed 9th grade algebra.

Louisville and Lexington are the reasons it will be 70%/30% rather than 80%/20%.  They're nowhere near as well equipped to warp statewide totals as Cleveland, Philadelphia, or Pittsburgh.  

If you see Clinton losing 10 points from her RCP average and Obama miraculously gaining 15 in Kentucky... well, good luck.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 09:16PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Things will get better for Obama.  It had gotten so bad, that Limbaugh was going to redirect operation Chaos participants to vote for Obama instead of Hillary, but he changed his mind last night, saying that Obama had regained his footing with the Wright denunciation.  A switch of Operation Chaos voters to Obama would have probably inflicted a mortal blow to Hillary's nomination chances.  So, you folks got a nice reprieve from your "friend" in the right wing media!

by LordMike 2008-04-30 12:17PM | 0 recs
How many delegates is "momentum" worth?

I still fail to see how she can garner 70% of the ones that remain.  And I think the backlash against Rev. Wright will soon dwarf the negative effect he's had on Obama.  

And if Wright will make Obama a bad GE candidate, then how will Wright's photo with Bill Clinton during Monicagate play?  And which campaign will rake McCain over the coals with Hagee's highlight reel?

I don't think the goalposts are where most think they are.

by Jenius 2008-04-30 12:18PM | 0 recs
Supers can vote anyway they please.

Potentially momentum is worth 100% of Super Delegates.

But more likely momentum, electability and popular vote total is worth 70% to 30% SDs which is enough.

by DTaylor 2008-04-30 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Supers can vote anyway they please.

I should hope so, since that's what she needs.

69% ain't gonna cut it.

by Lettuce 2008-04-30 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Supers can vote anyway they please.

Popular vote total. If we count Michigan. And not the caucuses. Or something.

Listen, hate to burst your bubble, but the only people including MI in pop vote totals are hard-core Hillary supporters.

by jbill 2008-04-30 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Supers can vote anyway they please.

Your right about that but that's not the point.

If the SD's to give this to Clinton they will need a justification. She won the popular vote (including FL and MI if necessary) is as good as any.

by kristoph 2008-04-30 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Supers can vote anyway they please.

Exactly.  The votes don't belong to the DNC to count or not count.  And how are we going to win in Nov. without Michigan?  

by RobinLB 2008-04-30 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Supers can vote anyway they please.

Ask Hillary, Obama's up in MI, not trailing like HRC.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:21PM | 0 recs
Re: How many delegates

Personally, I would be too embarrassed to try and compare a grip-n-grin snapshot to a 20-year relationship that included book-naming, marrying, and child-baptizing.  Really, and not just for you but for all the people who have raised this unbelievably ridiculous argument, are you at all interested in truth, or is political discussion just all about combat with whatever weapon lies close to hand?

by Trickster 2008-04-30 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re:

So now Obamites plan to give Wright the same treatment they give Hillary?  

I'm guessing that after being vilified by the Obamites, Wright will realize that Obama's doing to him is what he said the CLinton's had done to the AA's.  Chickens coming home to roost.

by RobinLB 2008-04-30 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

In North Carolina, she faces the same polling ceiling right now that Obama faced in PA.

In the polling leading up to PA, Obama only broke 45% once, that was in the PPP poll released right before PA that showed him with a 49-46 lead.  Every other poll showed him with a tough time getting to 45, let alone above it.

Now HRC faces a similar ceiling in NC, with only one poll getting her to 44%, the recent SUSA poll.  

What does this mean?  Well, looking at it now she probably won't pull off the upset in NC that would really cripple Obama.  A win there for her and she really, really damages him.  I just don't think she'll get there, barring something unforeseen.  And thus, if there's momentum, it still might not be enough in NC...

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php
http://www.pollster.com/08-NC-Dem-Pres-P rimary.php

by mascho 2008-04-30 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I agree. A win for Clinton in NC would be a real upset. Frankly a 5 point loss would be an upset. If she is luck she will lose in single digits.

by kristoph 2008-04-30 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

She hasn't had any momentum in superdelegate endorsements, which in a good week she will keep even with Obama. But every single one that falls off the table is a loss for her, since this is the essence of a zero sum game.

Clinton's ability to close a huge gap in a state from 20-10 would be a large leap for her campaign, and would've mattered a lot more two months ago. So far Obama has shown this ability in almost every single state he and Hillary have gone head to head in, so this "momentum shift" can be suitably called a small trend toward Hillary or away from Obama in the closing contests. I suppose the media and Hillary's supporters can call it "buyer's remorse" or whatever they call it when McCain underperforms after securing the nomination, but it isn't changing the fact that he is the Republican nominee and that Obama is going to be the Democratic nominee.

If people here are waiting for pledged delegates or superdelegates to crap their pants and gasp "oh no! he's black they aren't going to vote for him!" or "oh no! he had a falling out with his preacher in public and they aren't going to vote for him!" then I am guessing that they don't understand the firm support that Obama has among his base. There will be no defections and they are ready to fight back.

I think the person that has the second most delegates and vote should concede in June for the good of the party and to press the money advantage against McCain. If people here disagree with this, I want to hear a really good reason why not other than sour grapes.

by wengler 2008-04-30 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like


Yeah, cling to that inevitability wish.

Who cares?  Superdelegate endorsements are not final.  Unlike you, they don't have sentimental incentives to stand by a campaign that is bleeding now and may be a corpse by convention time.  For now there are dubious incentives to go his way- he's getting the Blue Dogs, politicians from Red States and Red districts that think backing Hillary might be dangerous or not have the Red State payout Obama is going to have to give if successful.

Interestingly, Republicans seem to be gambling just the other way in Mississippi-1: that alignment with Obama might be more toxic than Hillary.  I bet you'll see a Blue Dog run on Obama if Childers succeeds, and a run away from him if Childers falls short.  All I know is that Republicans have focus grouped their anti-Obama ads in Mississippi and like the result.

Btw, Hillary has a solid 40%, Obama has a solid 40% "base" in the Party.  The issue has always been the remaining 20%.

by killjoy 2008-04-30 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

The only thing that is permanent here is the Wright damage to Obama in November.

Our party leaders & SD's are just concerned about showing a united party behind the nominee.

And of course, majority of the so called " Democratic Party elders" are of the Liberal persuasion.

At this point, Wright's damage may be too little to late to take away Obama's nomination.

But it is without a doubt a "Near Perfect Timing" to destroy his candidacy in November.

When it comes to Offensive Racial Issues like this, most voters don't just forgive & forget.

Up to this day, the 3 highest Negatives in public opinion polling among white americans regarding Racial Issues is Jackson, Sharpton & Farrakan.

I'm sure Rev. Wright will soon be up there when a new survey comes out.

This is inspite of years of low key activities by Farrakan & Jackson.

Issues like this, people do not easily forget or forgive.

Some whites on MYDD who say its no big deal are Liberal whites. You do not represent nor share the views of mainstream americans. Liberal whites are a minority among overall white voters

Come November, this will be Obama's Iraq.

by labanman 2008-04-30 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

Obama's "negative" opinion poll ratings have stayed at basically the same level since the Wright firestorm began.

by belicheat 2008-04-30 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

At least per FOX news, Obama's positives are 46, negatives 42. Clinton is 49-47.

by VAAlex 2008-04-30 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

Not true:

"Obama is now viewed favorably by 49%, down three points from yesterday's total. His unfavorable ratings are up three points to 48%."

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/daily_presidential_tra cking_poll

Yes, Clinton's unfavorables are even higher, but as I've maintained before, I don't think that matters when you are campaigning as "the fighter" candidate - that means you are willing to piss people off to accomplish your goals.  For Obama, these numbers are scary because he is the supposed "post-partisan, post-racial, likeable guy".

by mikes101 2008-04-30 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

More to the point -- and in line with yours -- you don't need to like someone to vote for them. You don't need to like someone to think they'll do a good job.

by VAAlex 2008-04-30 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

Sounds like you didn't get the word -- Obama and Wright are no longer an item.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

How can the good Reverend take the dissing that he got from Obama lying down?

I ask you Reverend, if you somehow ever get to read this comment, have you ever heard of a Member of the Flock upbraid the Shephard?!?!?

You are the Elder and he is the Novice - don't take this good Reverand, you must respond.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-30 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

Indeed, endorse Hillary and start appearing at her rallies.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Iraq

How convenient for Barry

by reggie44pride 2008-04-30 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Very good piece in Politico today. Bottom line:

"We may have to go to June, and whoever ends up with the most delegates wins," a key Democrat says. "Meanwhile, the attention will be on the battle she can't win, so why is she doing this - from here on out she's only bleeding the party. The right way to put it is, `This is a war of attrition and it's obvious that the numbers aren't going to add up, so what's the point?'" He added, "The hope is that at some point the superdelegates will get frustrated and join the Obama bandwagon."

This pressure may not be enough to get the tenacious Hillary Rodham Clinton to quit the race, but, says a leading Democrat, "Sometime in June we will make it clear to her that this thing isn't going to the convention."

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/040 8/9862.html

by fugazi 2008-04-30 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I would still like to hear a diarist or commenter clear this situation up for me:

Lets go with what you've written above, and assume Hillary gets the big momentum she's been craving.  She pulls close upsets in some of the remaining Obama strongholds (OR, NC), and blows Obama out in the states she is expected to (PR,IN,KY,WV).  Assuming all of this, she is still going to be short delegates.  But the superdelegates buy her argument, and swing behind her.

However, because she remained behind Obama in pledged delegates, key Obama constituencies such as African Americans, "Latte Liberals" and youth voters feel they were robbed (wrongly or not).  Considering the level of tension between the AA population and the Clinton campaign, I don't think it would be a reach to assume that between all 3 groups, 10-15% might either stay home or vote for McCain.  If Hillary cannot fully count on these key Democratic base constituencies, where is she going to come up with the votes to beat McCain?

I understand she is strong with the blue-collar "Reagan Democrat" cohort, but this group has also been swinging farther and farther to the right in Presidential elections.  

Please, if you want to start a flame war start a different thread.  I just don't want John McCain to win the White House.  Clinton has been pushing her argument that she is more electable, but I have yet to see a full scenario laid out that takes into account possible uproar over the superdelegates overturning the pledged delegate majority.  Thank you in advance for keeping the debate at an academic and intellectual level.

by belicheat 2008-04-30 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

All these "if you don't let me win I'm taking my ball home" scenarios are totally plausible although they are totally counter to the interests of the constituencies you talk about. But there's nothing new about that. Given the schism that shows signs of opening up in the party either candidate's cred at the moment depends to a large extent on the belief that all the primary arguments can be put behind us and the entire party gets behind the nominee. I think this largely sound reasoning but but at the end of the day I'm inclined to believe the latte drinkers and black voters are going to be less susceptible to McCain's siren song than traditional blue collar working class and middle class democrats particularly older ones.      

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I agree that any true "latte liberal" worth their weight in starbucks would never vote McCain over Hillary no matter how badly they dislike her.  However, I think the biggest problem would be with AA and youth voters.  It's not even a matter of them defecting to the GOP, it's a matter of apathy taking over.  Not voting for Hillary might as well be a vote for McCain.

by belicheat 2008-04-30 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Plausible scenarios all I agree. But young people tend to be more emotive and have shorter memories than folks over 50. And it all assumes that Obama would not be actively campaigning which he would. Once passions are roused I would say the youth and black votes are much more moveable than the trad wrinkly.  

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like
Blacks won't think "if you don't let me win I'm taking my ball home".
They'll think "you stole this from us and you want us to vote for you?"
by danfromny 2008-04-30 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

And he's run a sexist campaign against her and tried to label her as a racist.  So HRC supporters will feel like "you stole this from us and you want us to vote for you?"

by RobinLB 2008-04-30 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Try, "He sold out his pastor and his Black congregation to kiss up to white people!?"

That's the point of this Wright/Obama fiasco.  By the time Wright is done with him, the perception will shift that Obama sold out his roots on the campaign and more and more prominent AA's will question whether he really cares about his AA constituents or just takes them for granted as votes when he needs them.  Clinton has to stay out of this mess because if she tries to fan the flames, they'll both rally against her.

If Obama can be painted as a traitor to the Black community, they're not going to be so sympathetic when they count all the votes in Florida + Michigan and he loses.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I think that's a good question.

Let's assume that the same group of Super Delegates who lead the effort to put over the top also insist that, as part of the process, she nominate Barack Obama for Vice-President.  And those same Super Delegates go to Barack Obama and tell him that, if he accepts the Vice-Presidency, they will do everything possible to ensure that he becomes the next nominee, either in 2012 if Hillary loses the election or in 2016 if Hillary wins it.  But that if he refuses the Vice-Presidency, all bets are off for the future.

Barack Obama then accepts the Vice Presidency and brings his constituents with him.

Again, this is predicated in very strong momentum for Hillary over the last 10 states (from PA on).  Obviously, if Obama performs strongly electorally in this period that scenario wouldn't play out.

by markjay 2008-04-30 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Barack Obama for Vice-President? The leading vote getter should take the #2 spot? Would you?

And there will be no "unity ticket", you lunatic.

The Dems will run a ticket with a woman AND a black, neither with military experience or any of the other pluses a good VP choice could add? Smart move.

by danfromny 2008-04-30 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

The leading vote getter should take the #2 spot?

In the above scenario, Obama would no longer be the leading vote getter.  Clinton will have extended her current lead in the popular vote.

Would you?

Yes

you lunatic.

How old are you, Dan?  Is this the way you normally interact with people who are trying to hold a conversation?

by markjay 2008-04-30 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like
Sorry I called you a lunatic. I didn't read closely enough to see that your post was in regard to a make-believe scenario.
 
by danfromny 2008-04-30 01:02PM | 0 recs
For Clinton to take the nomination

She will need to retain the momentum between now and then.  Assuming she does so, she will likely gain a few points in the national polls both vs Obama and vs McCain.

Bear in mind she has already begun to outperform Obama vs McCain in the last few polls taken, although only slightly.  But if the trend continues, she could outperform Obama vs McCain by, say, 7-10% consistently, and also consistently lead Obama in national head-to-head polling.

If this happens, and she ends the campaign on a primary victory streak, Obama would still maintain a small pledged-delegates lead, but only if MI & FL are excluded, and there's no argument that there is at least some legitimate controversy about their exclusion.  If they are included, and Clinton finishes on the type of roll described, she would lead probably in all metrics.

If the race is essentially tied or nearly tied, and Clinton is on a victory roll (which of course means that Obama is on a defeat roll), and Clinton consistently does significantly better vs McCain in polling, I just don't see any huge outcry should she win the convention.

Granted, there would be an outcry.  But there is going to be some bitterness and backlash within the Party however this thing turns out, and in fact the polls have consistently shown that it is the pro-Clinton voters who are less likely to line up behind Obama than the other way around.  Taking everything into account, I personally consider Clinton a significantly stronger GE candidate as of right now, and her hopes for the nomination lie primarily in the concept that events between now and the Convention will make that perception ever more apparent.

by Trickster 2008-04-30 12:47PM | 0 recs
Re: For Clinton to take the nomination

I agree with you that polls have shown Clinton voters are less likely to get behind Obama in the general election.  But the question is, will they even be voting Democrat?  Clinton's strongest demographic groups (Older voters, blue-collar workers, less educated voters) have been leaning further and further to the right every Presidential election.  Once McCain starts pulling out the GOP bag-o-tricks and attempts to put the focus of the race onto his military service, patriotism, and traditional GOP wedge issues such as gay marriage, gun control, abortion, etc... who knows how Clinton's base will react?

Also, it makes me nervous that right now >50% of the population in opinon polls has a negative opinion of Hillary, and >60% do not find her trustworthy.  I just do not see anyone with those numbers winning a general election. Its too much of a hurdle to overcome.

by belicheat 2008-05-01 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

The odds are still on Obama getting the nod but there does seem to have been a bit of a shift in mood. If she wins Indiana next week and he doesn't win NC by a landslide then the change in mood will be reinforced. What's happening I think is that a lot of liberal opinionaters and superdels are getting uneasy. The demographics of this are becoming so clear although the Obama fans keep denying it. He will not win a single southern state, Clinton at least has a chance in two or three. He will not win OH. A plausible argument can be made that a strong campaign by McCain puts NJ and PA in play. These are horrific prospects people. I'll vote for the guy because he's a democrat but it's clear were going to have a big chunk of the core Democratic electorate that is soft. I'm hoping that McCain runs a lousy campaign but I wouldn't count on it. We can debate the reasons for this all day and some of them are not pretty but the total denial of this scenario that is prevalent amongst Obama supporters is both naive and shortsighted.    

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Clinton will not win WI... nor OR, nor WA...

Obama will win Ohio with the help of Strickland's machine.  Ed Rendell himself said that Obama would win PA.

This nice bump for Hillary in the polls is a result of the media leaving her alone or praising her endlessly.  Once she were to become the nominee, and the attacks would begin, her temporary good numbers are sure not to stay static.....

The GOP has already leaked one of their strategies against her in the GE... she'd be called an illegitimate, fraudulent candidate that was not selected by the majority of the voters... how do you shake that off?

And her friends at Fox News won't be her friends for much longer, anymore after she was nominated.  Terry McAuliffe would probably rue the day he actually called them "fair and balanced".

by LordMike 2008-04-30 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Clinton wont win WA? With that one claim you have destroyed any claim to logic or reason.  

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:37PM | 0 recs
by LordMike 2008-04-30 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

You can't claim Clinton won't win WI, OR, or WA anymore than you can claim Obama will win OH. Please.

And don't start with that 'majority of voters' b.s. line because the GOP has ZERO CREDIBILITY on that issue. Anyone remember 2000?

by VAAlex 2008-04-30 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Then you can't claim that Obama won't win OH and PA when their governors say otherwise!

If you are going to use polling to support your analysis, then all polls count, even the ones you don't agree with!

by LordMike 2008-04-30 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Well then, you're arguing my point! Which is, I understand selective poll-quoting is the name of the game around here, but it works in both directions. It's the definitive 'Clinton will not win X' or 'Obama will not carry Y' in the general that I have a problem with.

by VAAlex 2008-04-30 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

quick reality check. obama up 24 in new jersey. clinton up 14.

by jbill 2008-04-30 12:45PM | 0 recs
Big mis-step in North Carolina

I think that Hillary has been gaining ground, but it appears that some of her over-zealous followers have blown it for her; an organization called Women's Voices Women Vote has been outed as being behind robocalls that appear aimed at vote suppression.

Facing South broke the story.

The director of the organization has a pathetic defense at the Huffington Post.  She does not explain why an organization purportedly aimed at encouraging women to vote was calling African-American men, with a caller using the name "Lamont Williams" when no one by that name works for WVWV.

I hope that Clinton herself had nothing to do with this.

by Joe Buck 2008-04-30 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Big mis-step in North Carolina

SOP eve of election smearing. As if Clinton would do anything as stupid as suppress the black vote in a way that was totally public. Really sometimes the partisanship/gullibility of people knows no bounds.

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Big mis-step in North Carolina

It wasn't public, the identity of the group wasn't mentioned in the call or on caller ID.  It took a State Police investigation to figure out who was making the calls.  

And I'm sure that if Hillary did have anything to do with it, she has insulated herself sufficiently from any direct links.  If there is one thing that Hillary has not been accused of, it's being stupid.

by belicheat 2008-04-30 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Big mis-step in North Carolina

Robo calls by the hundreds and thousands are not "public" What world DO you live in.

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Donate to Hillary Clinton to stop Obama from continuing!!!

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I actually thought Obama badly mishandled this one.  He came off (to me) like Mike Dukakis giving a technocrat's answer to Bernie Shaw's question about what would happen if his wife were raped and murdered.

The smart thing to have done, very early on, would have been to say something on the order of:

"Rev Wright was like part of my family growing up.  It hurts me and disappoints me to hear him talk like that about America, but you don't disown someone because they disappoint you and I can't disown him.  All I can do is tell him how much it hurts and that I forgive him."

That would have been short, sweet, and impossible to misconstrue.

by beerwulf 2008-04-30 12:31PM | 0 recs
Eh, that wouldn't be honest

Plus, he'd be tagged as a weakling who will turn the other cheek if America is attacked by terrorists.

He made the right choice.  He gave Wright a shot at redemption.  Wright blew it, and Obama is now free and clear to walk away from him with his hands clean.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 01:04PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

There is simply no way Obama can be elected in the General Election.

Are we Democrats or Lemmings?

Don't be seduced by your inner lemmming.

Say no to Obama!!!

We can't afford to lose another Presidential election!!!

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I agree with you put would prefer logical reasoning to bumper stickering.

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

How are things on Telegraph Avenue these days?

by politicsmatters 2008-04-30 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I don't think HRC needs to win NC, but she cannot slip up at all the rest of the way and even then it might not be enough.  The following basically need to happen:

Primary results

Close in NC, win IN (preferably by >5)
Crush in WV and KY
Win or stay very close (<5) in Oregon
Win PR by at least 12-15

Polling results

Move convincingly ahead of Obama in national head to heads.  Not like 47-45 versus McCain while Obama sits at 45-45.  More like 49-42 while Obama sits at 43-48.

She needs to be able to say both that she has carried momentum for months and for the electability argument to be reflected obviously in the head to head polls.  Otherwise, the supers will just continue to divide relatively evenly and Obama will win.

by Fuzzy Dunlop 2008-04-30 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Basically I agree with all your reasoning. I still think he's the favorite but for reasons outlined above think it's probably, nothing is certain, but probably, a poisoned chalice.

by ottovbvs 2008-04-30 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

supers aren't dividing evenly. check out the count since february. and the politico story today about obama having most electeds locked. she needs essentially a perfect storm to have even an outside chance, and that storm means, i believe, that she has to sweep every state here on out. nc, oregon, the whole lot.

by jbill 2008-04-30 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

That is true.  In the next two weeks, Obama will probably close the gap even more.  On the other hand, they can always change their minds.  If on June 3rd HRC is convincingly ahead in head to heads and Obama has not beaten expectations on a major primary day since February, things could change.

All in all, though, I think HRC's chances are very low and probably overstated by the markets at this point.  I would say 10% as a guess.

by Fuzzy Dunlop 2008-04-30 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like
More like 49-42 while Obama sits at 43-48.

I agree with most of your post, but I think these are still way too close.  49-42 is likely barely out of MOE, and 43-48 is probably within it.  She needs to be +20 on Obama this far out for anyone to take it seriously.  +12, like in your example, isn't enough.  Anything less than +20 could evaporate in a week of bad press.
by ChrisKaty 2008-04-30 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Its all about how these numbers are perceived by the supers, and I don't know exactly where the line would be in terms of what constitutes a significant advantage.  Personally, absent some huge scandal for Obama, I doubt we will see +20.  But I think a +12 argument would still get a lot of traction with the people who matter in this. I would also add that if a trend holds over a tracking poll for a few days, true MoE gets really low.

In the end, I think the important thing is that there really is a viable scenario out there in which Clinton will have a fairly strong electability argument on June 1st, as much as many Obama partisans don't want to hear it.  But its unlikely and it may not be enough anyway.

by Fuzzy Dunlop 2008-04-30 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

You forgot lose in MT and SD by 50 pts. Obama has this thing wrapped up and is shifting his campaigning to the general while still taking flack from both sides(or to be fair from 2 candidates from the right). It sucks to campaign in this environment, but Hillary supporters are going to be really sore and sour come June. She promised them the impossible comeback, and they will find out that it was impossible.  

by wengler 2008-04-30 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Lose in MT/SD by 50 points?

You do realize that South Dakota's primary will be the first non-caucus election in the Great Plains.  And Montana's primary will the only the second non-caucus election in the Rockies, after Utah.  

by BPK80 2008-04-30 04:12PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

The momemtum is picking up.

The more people find out about "Black Liberation Theology" the more angry they become at Obama for supporting it for 20 years and donating so much money to it.

Obama didn't even carry the youth vote in PA among Whites.

I bet that as more of Obama's non-Black supporters learn more about it, they'll switch to Hillary.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page/ JC18Aa01.html

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Geez, I think that Karl Rove wrote that article... The bias is seeping through the pages...

Oh, and the article is completely wrong, BTW...  It's total BS, through and through!

by LordMike 2008-04-30 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Google "Black Liberation Theology"

Choose any article you want.

Its a racist cult.

I don't know why anyone would even call it a church.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 12:56PM | 0 recs
Racist cult

That's what all this "White voter/Black voter" crap sounds like to me.

by Kobi 2008-04-30 01:03PM | 0 recs
Enough

We don't want to hear it.  

Black liberation theology is about reading the Bible through the lens of the black experience, because Jesus, like African Americans, was a second-class citizen due to his race.

It's a comfort to an oppressed minority.  I will ask you to take your hate elsewhere.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-30 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Oh Dear God! What a stupid comment and link.

Why oh why do you Hillary people want more of the same???? I don't think Obama is some saviour, but he isn't beholden to corporate interests and God knows who else (who's been funding that Clinton library and paying those speaking fees?@?@).
The people, and that includes blue collar whites and older women, would be better served by someone that speaks for them first.
Between her neocon posturing, corporate funding and kissing up to Fox, Scaife, etc., someone please please please explain why she is a great DEMOCRATIC canditate?

by danfromny 2008-04-30 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

when it hits a dead end.

Click the sig.....

by Kobi 2008-04-30 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

At this point, Obama's supporters have about as much credibility as he does -- none.

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 01:01PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

You really don't have any points to make, do you? Do you wear a cheerleaders outfit when you post?

by danfromny 2008-04-30 01:04PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I posted some detailed info on the math behind what's happening earlier on.

The bottom line is that Obama is toast.

Have a great day!!!

by BerkekeyGuy 2008-04-30 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Bet you a dollar you are wrong.

by danfromny 2008-04-30 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

I can't believe you are accusing someone of no content.  Reread the two you just posted to him.  What is the difference?

by Scotch 2008-04-30 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Uh, "earlier on" where?  Not in this thread, you didn't.

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-30 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

It was in another thread.

by mikes101 2008-04-30 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

It is obvious at this time in the race, the country and especially democrats want Clinton to be the nominee.  What can be done when there is buyers remorse and many find out they want another candidate than the one many of them voted for when the election is nearly over. There is still time for the Superdelegates to turn it around so that we can win in November, but Democrats have a reputation of being stupid and picking a candidate who can loose to the republicans.  Why should this year be any different?  At this point in the primaries, the underdog isn't supposed to be the one rising and the frontrunning one from the first part of the primary race be the one on his way down. What a screwed up system. The DNC had better get their shit together for the next time, and make the season fair and short enough that we can't shoot ourselves in the head on the way to the GE.

by Scotch 2008-04-30 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

The current RCP average shows Obama +2% on Clinton among democrats.  Clinton hasn't been in the lead by that measure for more than a month.  I just don't understand comments like yours.

by snaktime 2008-04-30 03:03PM | 0 recs
Clinton Outspending Obama in NC

It turns out Clinton is taking North Carolina serious, outspending Obama in the state.

Clinton is spending $135,000 a day for this week, while Obama is spending $120,000 a day.

Both campaigns are spending about $100,000 a day in Indiana.

Interesting.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail /2008/04/30/clinton_pulls_even_on_the_ai r.html

by RJEvans 2008-04-30 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Outspending Obama in NC

Well if Obama wins despite being outspent in the state then I think the PA analogy is near perfect.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-30 02:34PM | 0 recs
Unless 75% of the SDs...

...that are remaining go to Clinton, the Democrats will be backing the wrong horse.  That
includes Blue Dogs like Rep. Chandler in KY who endorsed Obama.

She needs an upset in NC or OR, plus an attitude change from the remaining SDs.  Perhaps there's been an underestimation of the dislike for Clinton among them?

by mikelow1885 2008-04-30 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

OMG did anyone find anything in Hillarys tax records?  

by grego101 2008-04-30 03:38PM | 0 recs
Re: What Momentum Looks Like

Okay you guys don't get it. This was never supposed to come down to Clinton vs Obama. Everyone knew Clinton was going to run and some people Kerry, Pelosi(who does not want to relinquish her title of the most powerful woman in America) did not want Clinton to win. They put Obama up to running hoping he would pull some of Clinton's AA support away, allowing Edwards to lead, thus stopping Clinton. It backfired and in November we will all pay the price. McCain will be President and that will be that. See I cannot vote for Obama, simply because he has run and been supported as the Anyone But Clinton  candidate and I will not support it. If you want to destroy the Clintons you will have to do it without my help, time or money. I know for a fact that there are many within the party that feel the same way. Feel free to destroy the Clinton's but don't ask for me to condone those actions, as far as I am concerned you do so at the risk of destroying the party and maybe it is time for the Democratic party to end. The left can go it's way and those of us in the middle can join forces with the moderates of the republican party who are sick of the RR to form a solid majority party and make both the Dem left and the Rep Right irrelevant.

by RedstateLib 2008-04-30 06:14PM | 0 recs

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