The choice of voters
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Apr 03, 2008 at 05:59:36 AM EDT
Gallup has a chart that breaks it down real simple:
With such a huge sample, taken over a month, it presents the stark truths:
Clinton and Obama get the same numbers of support from those who are Liberal Democrats. They both also lack more than a little support from Conservative Republicans. It's in the middle four groups that they differ in their support, and where they have soft support that winds up going with McCain.
For Obama, he brings more support among moderate Republicans and pure Independents.
For Clinton, she brings more support among moderate Democrats and Conservative Democrats.
After further breaking it down (see the link above for charts), here's Gallup's take:
When the votes of all registered voters are averaged, as noted previously, the two Democratic candidates end up performing about the same against McCain. Clinton appears better able to gain the support of the Democratic base, particularly Democrats more on the fringe of the party (conservatives), while Obama builds his coalition with a stronger appeal to independents, Republicans, and black voters.
There's also an age and gender divide, which Gallup covers today:
...McCain has a 9-point advantage over Obama among male voters while Obama leads him by 5 points among women, for a total gender gap of 14 points. But if Clinton is the Democratic nominee, the gender gap expands to 22 points, with men going for McCain by 52% to 40% and women for Clinton by 51% to 41%.... a Clinton-McCain contest would primarily divide Americans according to gender, with age having far less of an impact.