New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead heading into April

There's a new poll out of Indiana this evening and it shows a tightening race in my state's presidential primary battle. Here are the results, along with the numbers from Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll:

    Research 2000
    400 Likely Voters -- MoE 5%

    3/31-4/2

    49% -- Hillary Clinton
    46% -- Barack Obama
    5% -- Undecided

    SurveyUSA
    530 Likely Voters -- MoE 4.3%
    3/29-3/31

    52% -- Hillary Clinton
    43% -- Barack Obama
    5% -- Other/Undecided

For the Clinton camp, these numbers can't be encouraging. As I mentioned in my last post, she enjoys the support of most of the Democratic establishment within the state, but the endorsement yesterday of Obama by widely-respected former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton will probably give a palpable boost. Here's how the fight breaks down right now:

In the central portion of the state (outside of Indianapolis) and in southern Indiana, the demographics suggest that Clinton should have no problem tallying up some healthy margins. Similarly, the Obama campaign appears to be making a strong effort to run up the score in the Indianapolis metropolitan area, opening a second campaign headquarters in a city that arguably doesn't justify it by size alone. They want to win there, and win big.

The batleground -- at least at this point -- looks to be developing in the northern portion of the state. Conventional wisdom says that Obama should perform strongly in the northwestern region, which is in many ways an extension of Chicago, but the more east one travels, the more competitive the race will likely be.

A quick look at where Hillary Clinton and her chief surrogate have been reveals a lot about where they think there is the potential for votes -- a strong showing on the southern and northeastern portions of the state, and the losses in Indianapolis and the handful of large college towns could (theoretically, at least) be overcome.

Now, Obama still hasn't returned to the state since his one, brief visit to the suburbs of Indianapolis a few weeks ago. But he is running a statewide ad buy right now, which is something the Clinton campaign has yet to accomplish. The ad hits on jobs, which both candidates will need to address if they want to win the votes of countless Hoosiers who have lost their jobs over the last five years. Tonight's poll confirmed that, with 36% of Hoosiers putting economic recovery on the top of their agenda. Furthermore, he has already made promises to the press to at least visit South Bend and Fort Wayne, and he has canceled an event in the college town of Muncie to visit the Fort tomorrow.

The silence from Clinton supporters in this state about the 9-point margin in Tuesday's SurveyUSA poll -- and the thinly-veiled disappointment in response to tonight's results -- says a lot about their confidence heading into this home stretch. Still, I wouldn't underestimate the power of Clinton's supporters within the state, especially that of Sen. Evan Bayh, who in many ways bet the farm with his early endorsement. The question remains as to when Clinton will take to the airwaves, and as I wrote this I saw two Obama ads play in a matter of twenty minutes. Tonight's poll should make it clear that if they want to win Indiana, they are going to have to do more than they currently are.

We'll be following this race over at BlueIndiana.net, so feel free to drop by.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

43 Comments

Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with

It looks very competitive, but I am going to go with Obama, only because the margin is so close that Obama has a chance to catch up.

by Spanky 2008-04-03 02:32PM | 0 recs
Obama Map


http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/toprec ipQ1_2008/toprecip.asp

EXCERPT

Will Money Translate into Primary Votes?

Candidates who raise lots of money say it indicates broad support. Candidates with little money point out that voters, not donors, decide elections. Here's who raised the most money in each state. Roll your cursor over a state to see the amount to the top fund-raiser and how the state's overall money splits between Democrats and Republicans.


by dearreader 2008-04-03 08:16PM | 0 recs
North Dakota : Obama

http://www.grandforksherald.com/articles /index.cfm?id=72573&section=news

Excerpt

Sens. Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan, Rep. Earl Pomeroy and former Gov. George Sinner all are North Dakota Democrats. "There is proof, if you put the right candidate on the ballot that can identify with voters, Democrats can win in this state pretty handily," Hildebrand said.

Conrad, Dorgan and Pomeroy, the state's Congressional delegation, has sided with Obama. Sinner is a long-time friend of the Clintons and has sided with Hillary Clinton.

The Obama-is-good-for-North Dakota-Dems line is one oft repeated by his supporters here.

Hannaher said he hopes state Dems will win the gubernatorial race, the insurance commissioner race and a majority in the N.D. Senate.

During the caucus in February, Hal Gershman, a prominent local Democrat and City Council member, said as much. "There is such passion for Obama among a lot of voters. If he's not the nominee, they'll float around."

State Rep. Chris Griffin, D-Larimore, N.D., said at the time that he believed Obama's popularity among UND students could give his party another state senator.

"He can do a generational seismic shift similar to what Reagan did in 1980," C.T. Marhula, the Democratic District 17 chairman, said of Obama. "I think he can change the landscape for the next 20 years."


by dearreader 2008-04-03 11:45PM | 0 recs
The Republican districts

What is your sense of the Democratic demographics in the 4 Republican held congressional districts (3, 4, 5 & 6)?  Does it favor one over the other more?

by minvis 2008-04-03 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: The Republican districts

My instict says that the 4th, 5th, and 6th trend conservative, and therefore toward Clinton. The 3rd is where Fort Wayne is, and seems to be a place where Obama at least may try and make it competitive.

At the same time, Obama is embracing a statewide campaign strategy -- he is opening another handful of campaign offices, bringing his total to 17. And they aren't all in areas that I would assume to be Obama hotbeds.

It's going to be interesting to see what polling shows in another two weeks, after Obama has been back to the state a few times.

by BlueIndiana 2008-04-03 02:38PM | 0 recs
Re: The Republican districts

Thomas, I agree with you on the 5th and 6th.  They are largely the type of rural white voters Clinton found in Ohio.  The 6th has Muncie, a college town with blue collar roots and a dying manufacturing base.

Ft. Wayne will be a battleground in the 3rd.

I think the 4th will be a battleground too.  With Purdue, and an extensive border with Illinois, Obama may pull of a victory in the district.

by Vox Populi 2008-04-03 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The Republican districts

Regarding the 4th: Maybe -- But if anything, Purdue is the most conservative of the big state schools, and having grown up in the 4th, I'm just surprised to hear that there are Democrats in the area...

It is going to be an interesting election.

by BlueIndiana 2008-04-03 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: The Republican districts

Let's see, I'll just guess as follows:

IN-01 (Visclosky): Obama
IN-02 (Donnelly): Clinton
IN-03 (Souder): Clinton
IN-04 (Buyer): Obama
IN-05 (Burton): Obama
IN-06 (Pence): Clinton
IN-07 (Carson): Obama
IN-08 (Ellsworth): Clinton
IN-09 (Hill): Clinton

That's just pulling stuff out of a hat, but in some of those Republican bastions of the state, I don't think we have a great idea of what the Democratic constituency looks like within those districts.

by mhojo 2008-04-03 04:14PM | 0 recs
Re: The Republican districts

I grew up in that area too. Lafayette was my hometown and I attended Purdue. It's true that Purdue is a rather conservative school, but I don't think it fits the Hillary demographic at all. For one thing, her appeal is to conservative democrats which tend to be blue collar and uneducated. That's obviously not a fair description of Purdue or West Lafayette. Another point to consider is that I recall hearing in the 90s Purdue had the 3rd largest foreign student population in the country. I'm not suggesting that that works against Clinton, but I don't see how it works FOR her either. The net effect of Purdue on the community is that it tends to be much more cosmopolitan than it would otherwise have any right to be.

It seems to me the real battle ground in that area isn't so much West Lafayette but Lafayette which very much is blue collar and rather backward. Even so, the Clintons have never had a very good name in IN so I think she has a bit of hill to climb regardless.

by tessellated 2008-04-03 09:06PM | 0 recs
Battleground

We're a true battleground state.  But with a month to go, Obama has the momentum, the money, the geography and the time to catch up.

by Vox Populi 2008-04-03 02:36PM | 0 recs
"Obama has...the money"

We all know that he's able to outspend Clinton anywhere from 2-1 to 5-1 in media buys.  This post is written as if Clinton is ignoring Indiana, as opposed to being unable to purchase media to the same extent Obama can.

by Redstar 2008-04-03 03:37PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

Prediction: Obama will win both Indiana and North Carolina and close Clinton's campaign once and for all!

by comingawakening 2008-04-03 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

Actually, for the Clinton Campaign, the simple fact that they are ahead is reason enough to celebrate. Northwest Indiana generates a huge Democratic vote, which combined with Obama's likely strength in Marion County means that Clinton's lead is mostly a product of the Indy suburbs and the 8th & 9th Congressional district areas.

by blueflorida 2008-04-03 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

I just saw the Clinton campaign folks on the nightly news, and they didn't look excited.

The race isn't over, and they have more than a few cards left to play, but I doubt this is where they wanted to be with one month to go.

by BlueIndiana 2008-04-03 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

I think there was real fear that Obama had a lead in the state because of his "neighbor" status.

by blueflorida 2008-04-03 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

Illinois' influence is remarkably limited in Indiana. Chicago is a huge presence in northwest Indiana, but aside from that, I don't think the influence is that great.

by mhojo 2008-04-03 04:16PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

Okay, honestly, in some parts of Baltimore and surrounding areas of Baltimore, "neighbor" is a phrase used by both blacks and whites for black people.  

So when I reads this, I thought, "What the fu--....?"

by LarsThorwald 2008-04-03 06:46PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

Heh. I can assure you there is no such connotation to that word in Indiana.

by tessellated 2008-04-03 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll:

The 3-on-3 Basketball Challenge and the free Dave Matthews concert should help drive new voter registration.  

I feel good about Obama's chances.  Obama winning Indiana would give Dean his first good nights sleep in months.

by Hope08 2008-04-03 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead

Considering Clinton hasn't run any ads in the state yet, and a poll from February showed her down 20 points, I think the fact that she is still ahead is a good sign.

by leozh 2008-04-03 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead

I agree with you...but I trust that February poll about as far as I can throw it.

One more poll, and we'll have ourselves some trend lines to assess things a bit more clearly.

by BlueIndiana 2008-04-03 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

well, this is certainly a much better post then your last. Both have been nice reads though.

I still see Obama winning Indiana by as much as 8. Hillary's saving grace might be PA's election the week before. If she wins big there, it might fire up the clinton bandwagon in IN to show up big.

by alex100 2008-04-03 02:53PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

What is disappointing about a 9 point lead in Indiana in the survey usa poll .

I don't think they are going to be blowing Obama out in Indiana.

Indiana is a battleground state for both but she would probably eke it out by a 4 point margin.

by lori 2008-04-03 02:54PM | 0 recs
Thread summary:

OBAMA MACHINE IS RACIST AND DIVISIVE!!!

IF U HATE HILLARY UR SEXIST!!!!

GO BACK TO KOS YOU COMMIE OBAMIST!!!

by beermeister 2008-04-03 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Thread summary:

Que?

by BlueIndiana 2008-04-03 02:59PM | 0 recs
I think this one is a

troll.

by GFORD 2008-04-03 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: I think this one is a

ya think?

:)

by Redstar 2008-04-03 03:38PM | 0 recs
No more Diet COke for you, son....

...the caffeine done done you wrong.... ;-)

by palamedes 2008-04-03 04:58PM | 0 recs
Delegate breakdown

Since all but one congressional district is a even number of delegates, are there any that you see splitting 3-1, 4-2 or 5-1?  Could we actually see the opposite of Texas where Obama wins the popular vote slightly but she takes more delegates?

by minvis 2008-04-03 03:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate breakdown

even district are really hard for Clinton to break...she has a hard time getting over 60% in any districts that are not hispanic

by CardBoard 2008-04-03 03:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate breakdown

I think Obama might get over 60% in the 7th District and maybe the 1st District.  I don't see Hillary getting that percentage mark anywhere.

by Vox Populi 2008-04-03 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate breakdown

I heard a few weeks ago that the Clinton camp was cautiously optimistic about staying competitive in the 1st. Not sure if that's still true today, though.

by BlueIndiana 2008-04-03 03:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate breakdown

IN-01 appears to be 26% African-American. Is the rest of that district populated by conservative-ish Democrats?

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-03 04:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate breakdown

The map of IN-01 is here.

Most of the population is up in Lake and Porter counties - Gary, Hammond, East Chicago, Portage, Merrillville. Strong Chicago influence. Large black population. There is a fair amount of farm country toward the south. I would peg Newton, Jasper, and Benton counties as conservative, but they are pretty sparsely populated.

by mhojo 2008-04-03 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate breakdown

Grazie

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-03 04:29PM | 0 recs
What's the Whiting area

like these days? If you know.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-03 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: What's the Whiting area

N'mind. Looks like that's IN-01.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-03 03:56PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea
Props to BlueIndiana....
When folks complain about Mogul Sleazy Media(MSM)
it is your effort that give a more real account of what is going on...
Thank you...we may not agree all the time..
but BI is truly the shape of things to come...
by nogo war 2008-04-03 03:36PM | 0 recs
by palamedes 2008-04-03 05:03PM | 0 recs
Just my opinon, Blue Indiana....

...But I think the greater Anderson area is what cancels out Muncie.  If it happens.

Once out of Bloomington, I agree that much of southern Indiana is worried about their job situation and thus ripe for Hillary's arrival, but things like GE's muilt-yearlong scam against their appliance workers was happening even under Bill without any Federal relief or intervention, so I wonder if she'll fully connect there.

That said, I look more at the Fishers to Kokomo and perhaps extended to the South Bend area as where she should have a lock, myself, due to economic issues.  If she does well in the outer ring of suburban towns in NW Indiana - Valpo to Munster to the Illinois state border - and takes Porter County, then she has a chance at a real victory by canceling out the Obama vote in Gary/East Chicago/Hammond.  (Michigan City might be a tough town to hold, though.)

My two bits...

by palamedes 2008-04-03 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

I thought the early polls said that Obama was ahead of Hillary in Indiana.

She didn't have a lead, but now she has a slight lead.  I think it will get better for her as the weeks go on.  She needs to just stay on topic, about the economy.

by stefystef 2008-04-03 08:02PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

That would be quite surprising and very newsworthy if it were to come to pass. I don't think there has been a single primary yet where the trend was Obama losing ground to Hillary. I suppose it is possible -- anything is -- but it runs absolutely counter to everything that we've seen to date.

I dunno, can you think of a single primary where over the weeks running up to the vote he LOST ground to her?

by tessellated 2008-04-03 09:18PM | 0 recs
Re: New Indiana Poll: Hillary with narrow lead hea

I think Donnelly's district should be an interesting battleground. South Bend is the typical blue collar area that Clinton has been carrying, but if Obama can do well there, that might be enough to pull out the victory. Remember, the majority of the state's democrats are in Northwest Indiana and Indianapolis, so its not as big a deal if Clinton carries IN-8, 9 etc.

by AC4508 2008-04-03 10:49PM | 0 recs

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