Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exit Polls

Jim Geraghty, who's always reliable for some early exit polls on election day, has Obama up by a larger margin than one would expect even factoring in the usual Obama-bias the early exit polls seem to have traditionally.

Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

Looks like some potential good news for Obama from fladem over at Open Left as well:

CNN (via Markos) has some Exit Poll numbers:

Seniors: 61C, 38O
White male: 55C, 45O
Blacks: 8C, 92O

The last SurveyUSA had Obama winning the African American vote 87-11 and had Clinton leading among seniors 62-32.

Hmm, is this going to be a long night or is it just one of those nights that looks like it's going to be long but then isn't?

Update [2008-4-22 18:57:25 by Todd Beeton]:For what it's worth, Drudge is reporting that the first wave of exit polls show Clinton up 4 points at 52-48. Marc Ambinder is understandably skeptical of anything Drudge reports but still says:

Not for nothing, I'd characterize the mood of the Clinton campaign as cautiously optimistic, and that of the Obama campaign as optimistically resigned.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, exit polls, Pennsylvania Primary (all tags)

Comments

117 Comments

Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Other exit poll reports have Clinton ahead by 4.

Exit polls have been pretty inaccurate.

Personally, I say -- lots of folks are still voting. Too early to tell.  Voting gets done at 8 and then let's wait to count the votes.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-22 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Yeah, after 2004 I assume up is down, black is white, and gravity works in reserve if an exit poll tells me otherwise.

by kasjogren 2008-04-22 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Exactly.  I still have knee strain from doing the "Bush is a one-term president" dance back in 2004.  Not quite as bad as the stubbed toe from the "Gore Wins!" tango in 2000 tho.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-22 02:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

I recall that Clinton only won in the RI exit poll by about 6.

And "Kerry Wins Ohio!" still sticks in my mind!

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:23PM | 0 recs
first, these exit polls have been totally wrong

so many times this election, that no one should take them seriously.

Second, when drudge has basically the same numbers but with Clinton ahead, I wonder if the leaks are even accurate.

by John DE 2008-04-22 02:15PM | 0 recs
Moreover,

Obama flew early today to Indiana and his campaign has issued a memo explaining Hillary's victory in Pennsylvania.

by Beltway Dem 2008-04-22 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Moreover,

Obama's going to lose PA. The only question is the margin.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-22 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Moreover,

The unweighted early exit polls put Obama ahead by 5, but they usually overestimate by 7

So it could be a low as a 2 percent different and a delegate split 50:50

Just saying

Anything below 8 is a disaster for Clinton

by brit 2008-04-22 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Moreover,

I don't understand why people 'x% win is a disaster for Clinton'.

If she wins by 0.1% that means Obama has lost another large battleground state even though he outspent his opponent by a margin of 3:1.

He has the name recognition now, he has an unlimited amount of money, he is the presumptive nominee, what exactly does he need to actually win a battleground state?

]{

by kristoph 2008-04-22 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Moreover,

I think the "__% win is a loss for Clinton" really just boils down to the narrative.  Realistically, Clinton's only chance for a win is a floor fight at the convention, so she needs to just get as close as she can in delegates and popular vote before then.  I think the idea of a win-as-loss for Clinton is trying to predict at what point the media will spin it that way.  What we think doesn't matter much; what the media says after this might mean a lot in the remaining states.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-22 03:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Moreover,

It's a primary. With increased registration and a unity bounce, either candidate would stand a good chance here in the fall. The margins just aren't big enough, nor do any matchup polls confirm, that a primary win equals electoral college votes.

The number 15 per cent is the standard start point for HIllary to claw back on the popular vote and persuade superdelegates. A pledged delegate lead is beyond her

10 per cent win and the media narrative will be good for her, but the math still really bad

by brit 2008-04-22 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: first, these exit polls have been totally wron

Early exit polls have been so routinely wrong that they seem useful only to tell us what the results will not be.

by mhojo 2008-04-22 02:41PM | 0 recs
Black exit polls

I never believe the exit polls on african american voters. Too much social pressure to say they voted for Obama. I think they overestimate his support.

BTW: I'm an Obama supporter.

by Democratic Unity 2008-04-22 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong

I'll believe it when I see it.

Till then, I'm expecting a 20-point Hillary win. Anything less than that is her epic fail.

by admiralnaismith 2008-04-22 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking

I just hope Obama can keep it within 5-10 points.

A win would be excellent, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

by RussTC3 2008-04-22 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

good I am glad he is starting strong, he needs a cushion, because Hillary will easily surge. now I am thinking a 6-7 point loss is possible, man I can't wait for the polls to close.

I still say 54-46 Clinton

by TruthMatters 2008-04-22 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

While these look favorable to Obama so far (if we make the huge assumption they are accurate), what is also very important is what percent of the electorate is made up of seniors, women, and African-Americans.  The percent of seniors is very high so far, although I assume they are much more likely to vote early in the day.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-04-22 02:17PM | 0 recs
too early....

Too early, and there is some strange demographics break-outs in the exit polls?

We all just have to wait.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-22 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania

I think I've used this saying at least 3 times: if exit polls were accurate, Kerry would be running for reelection right now.  I apply this logic both in terms of primary results and whenever people make the inane "real Democrats choose Hillary" argument.

by rfahey22 2008-04-22 02:19PM | 0 recs
Question for Hillary supporters

if the almost impossible happens and Obama wins, what should Hillary do?

by grass 2008-04-22 02:19PM | 0 recs
Can't you just wait two hours?
WWOD? WWCD?
by linc 2008-04-22 02:21PM | 0 recs
Of course not.

What do you think exit polls were designed for? They're simply there to screw with your mind and ask "what if" questions.

In all honesty, I really would like to know if Clinton supporters expect her to carry on if she (hypothetically) loses PA, or to keep going all guns blazing.

by grass 2008-04-22 02:23PM | 0 recs
Grass,

If Hillary loses, I hope she keeps running, but in a kindler, more resigned to the inevitable, sort of way.

I would like her, if she loses or fails to win dramatically, to use these last few races to unceasingly prod Barack to adopt her vision of health care reform and clearly point out the differences between.

The difference between the two on this singular issue continues to fuel my support for her.

I do not want Barack's vision of health care reform. It is not "reform" as we all understand the meaning of the word.

by RickWn 2008-04-22 02:45PM | 0 recs
I wouldn't mind if she keeps running

of course, I'd prefer for Obama to be the nominee, but if she does keep running I'd hope she'd direct the majority of her attacks against McCain.

by grass 2008-04-22 02:58PM | 0 recs
Re: I wouldn't mind if she keeps running

Agree with you, Grass.

Like you, looking forward to the landslide defeat of McCain in November.

by RickWn 2008-04-22 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Grass,

It is an interesting issue.  I prefer Hillary's in an ideal world but think Barack's might be significantly more achievable.

My local righties are already all over the new "Hillarycare"-- "she'd force to to spend your money on insurance that goes to her friends in big pharma even if it means losing your house or your car or your business  or not feeding your children for the week before payday" etc

by wrb 2008-04-22 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Grass,

My opinion is that whoever gets in should focus on cutting costs in a non controversial areas and creating a government non-profit alternative. I haven't heard from either candidate whether there government alternative is non-profit, but if it isn't then it won't be competitive enough with the rest of the insurance industry to drive down costs.

If there is still a substantial number who aren't buying health care and they're having an impact on the cost for everyone else, say five years after the implementation of everything else, then sure go for a mandate. Asking for a mandate at the very start will just cripple all your other reforms.  

by grass 2008-04-22 03:43PM | 0 recs
wrb,

What your local righties, like my own, are not acknowledging, is that they are already forced to give up part of their paychecks to meet their employer sponsored contribution to their healthcare premiums (no change for them under Hillary's plan), or they are in employment situations where they don't have any health insurance at all because the premiums are too high.

Usually younger in age, those objecting to universal buy-in are those who rarely "go to the doctor" and mistakenly believe the same good health will follow them through the next 50 years.

Usually older in age, those objecting to universal buy-in are those very wealthy individuals and families who never bought medical insurance because they could easily afford to pay for whatever "little problem" came up, even if it was a $100,000 heart by-pass surgery. A common surgery that would bankrupt the average middle-class American family.

Barack's plan would leave the market and insurance companies to determine the risk and rates they would charge for the "universal policies" the average American would be offered. Barack claims that "competition" for the uninsured/underinsured premium dollars will naturally force those insurers to affordable premium-cost solutions. Essentially, Barack's health care plan leaves the solution to ever-increasing health care premiums to the insurance industry. It makes no mention of requiring them to accept into their plans those with pre-existing conditions or even those with genetic pre-dispositions to cancer, heart disease or the host of other conditions that can afflict us.

Hillary's plan is cleaner and more simple. Rightfully, it recognizes the only solution to our health care premium crisis: spread the risk. Everyone pays in, everyone is covered. Insurance companies cannot cherry-pick only the healthy and the young. They cannot exclude you when you apply merely because you have a history of high blood pressure or charge you higher rates because you are in a different "class" of risk.

From the first day of your first paycheck you will pay your health care premium just as you do now for your social security cushion and your worker's compensation coverage.

This is not communism, nor is it socialism. It's well regulated capitalism.

by RickWn 2008-04-22 04:22PM | 0 recs
Re: wrb,

I agree with you.  Hillary's plan is preferable.  However I think it is possible that Barack's might be craftier and more likely to actually eventually get us to universal coverage.  I'm not sure.

This, I think is Hillary's strongest argument.  If she'd just make it rather than enraging me with attacks on Wright, Ayers, CIC thresholds, and elites, I might well have supported her or at least remained neutral.

by wrb 2008-04-22 04:44PM | 0 recs
Re: wrb,

I understand your outrage. As an unabashed Hillary supporter, I assure you I've cringed more than once at some of the things her campaign has pulled out of the hat.

by RickWn 2008-04-22 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: wrb,

thanks

by wrb 2008-04-22 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Of course not.
I'm a Hillary supporter and I think if she were to lose PA, she should concede.
That being said, I don't think she's going to lose PA.
by skohayes 2008-04-22 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Of course not.

If she does not win by a comfortable margin, she should concede.

Comfortable?  Hmm.  < 5 is not comfortable.

> 10 is.

Not sure about 5-10.  With the financial woes of her campaign, her loose cannon husband, and her mathematical impossibility of winning, for the sake of her dignity, and the party, less than 5 points she should gracefully go out on a high note.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:26PM | 0 recs
I can answer half
WWOD = Fly out of PA (to IN)
WWCD = .....
by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 03:23PM | 0 recs
DRUDGE

Women
Clinton 55%
Obama 44

Men
Clinton 47%
Obama 53

by FOB92 2008-04-22 02:19PM | 0 recs
Re: DRUDGE

Drudge is wrong.

The white male vote broke for Hillary 55-45.

by americanincanada 2008-04-22 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: DRUDGE

Interesting. I didn't realize all male voters in Pennsylvania were Caucasian.

by John Seal 2008-04-22 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: DRUDGE

Drudge is not a reliable place to get exit poll data. The link he gives to his source doesn't even jive with his numbers.

by americanincanada 2008-04-22 02:27PM | 0 recs
by FOB92 2008-04-22 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: DRUDGE

They only poll "regular guys," so that excludes blacks.

by Weirdsmobile 2008-04-22 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: DRUDGE

Ah! I knew there had to be an explanation.

by John Seal 2008-04-22 03:15PM | 0 recs
Do the math

Assuming 18% African-American turnout, .18(.92)+.82(.45)=53.46% for Obama

by MILiberal 2008-04-22 02:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Do the math

53.46% for Obama

kerry wins ohio

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:27PM | 0 recs
kerry wins fl too...

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: kerry wins fl too...

Gore wins florida handidly...

in exit polls.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:34PM | 0 recs
Re: DRUDGE

Those are very surprising numbers, especially among men.  Leads me to believe that not many white men voted.

Does anyone have the 2004 primary statistics on the male/female breakdown?

by RussTC3 2008-04-22 02:24PM | 0 recs
Too funny!
screw with us for a little bit, eh Todd? Ha!
by linc 2008-04-22 02:20PM | 0 recs
I predicted it would be Clinton in a nailbiter

And if those demographical numbers (ignoring overall ones) are right, it looks like I was correct

My calculations:
AP has 'a little more than half' of voters to be female. I'll interpret that to be ~53-47

Lets say that of the voters, 41% are white women, 10% are African-American women, 36% are white men, 8.5% are African-American men, 4.5% other (Latino/Asian/etc) That means an African-American turnout of 18.5%, which seems reasonable, especially with stories of heavy turnout in SE PA

In OH, Clinton won white women 67-31. Lets say that its 66-34 here and Obama improved 4 points, which seems reasonable (he improved 7 points among white men.)

In OH, the 'other' vote appears to have been close (with no specific numbers), so I'll split it 50-50.

Using the released numbers from the exit polls and assuming Obama has similar support from male/female African-American voters, that leads to:
Clinton - 50.4%
Obama - 49.6%

Part of the key to this is that Obama is apparently doing extremely well against African-American voters (92%!) in PA

by MILiberal 2008-04-22 02:21PM | 0 recs
I think you mean

among African Americans.

But good analysis.

by fladem 2008-04-22 02:50PM | 0 recs
This may be irrelevant...

but most people wait for the results, and not for leaked first wave exit polls (which have tilted towards Sen. Obama in 18 out of 20 previous contests) before they declare that their predictions have been proven right.

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 03:25PM | 0 recs
That's true

I'm just trying to amuse myself while waiting for the actual results.

CNN has only 14% of the Pennsylvanian electorate as African-American, which is VERY strange to me, since AA voters were 13% in 2004, and this is just among Democrats

by MILiberal 2008-04-22 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

CBS News has some early exit poll results up as well.  I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations based on their announcing that 70% of voters polled would be content with Clinton as nominee and 64% would be content with Obama.  At its face, this looks better for Clinton, but when you dig deeper you get a different story, because only 36% of Clinton voters would be content with Obama while 46% of Obama voters would be okay with Clinton.  Anyway, doing a little algebraic manipulations, it looks to me that CBS exit polls show Clinton with 91% of the vote that Obama gets.

If these exit polls are accurate that would seem to point to an upset for Obama (of course, I'm also assuming my math isn't cockeyed<g>).

by katerina 2008-04-22 02:21PM | 0 recs
that's the same as the numbers above

Good check.  I think that the media all have the same exit polls -- they split the cost or something.

by John DE 2008-04-22 02:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

"At its face, this looks better for Clinton, but when you dig deeper you get a different story, because only 36% of Clinton voters would be content with Obama while 46% of Obama voters would be okay with Clinton."

My take on that is, Clinton has done a much better job running down Obama, then vice versus?

Obama NEVER claimed she was not fit to be CIC for example....

Also, (and I expect to get flamed her) what I see is, especially among older White Female Voters, Hillary losing is a personal affront, and they hold Obama responsable...(as I said, flame away...)

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-22 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama
I'm not going to flame you, I'm merely going to point out that your assumption is wrong.
Don't assume facts without evidence, please.
by skohayes 2008-04-22 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

how is that an upset for obama? it just tells us the people who would vote for the other side if that person is the nominee

by American1989 2008-04-22 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Algebraically it looks like this:

1.0X + .46Y = .7Z
and
.36X + 1.0Y = .64Z

where X = #Clinton votes
      Y = #Obama votes
      Z = #Total votes

Solving this to eliminate Z, you get

X = .91Y

Which if it plays out (ie. if the exit polls prove accurate) means that Clinton gets fewer votes than Obama.

[I'm making the assumption that all (100%) of Obama voters would be content if Obama was the nominee and all (100%) of Clinton voters would be content if Clinton was the nominee. I suppose this could be wrong as well.]

by katerina 2008-04-22 02:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Which means, if your calculations are correct, Obama wins by inches, not miles.

So what do we do with all those Hillary votes? Trash 'em and declare a mandate? Hope not.

by RickWn 2008-04-22 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Hi Katerina:

I checked your algebra using the TI-89 graphing calculator (machines do math better than I:-)and I got X = 0.486*(total vote) and Y = .465*(total vote). By that count (a) Hillary gets more votes than Barack and (b) the totals don't add up right.

I have no idea what the error is, mine or yours:-)

your friend
Keith

by keith johnson 2008-04-22 03:20PM | 0 recs
It is not algebra...it is calculus

Didnt you hear Gen Petraeus say that...

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 03:31PM | 0 recs
It's always a long night now. This is a delegate

race.

by bobdoleisevil 2008-04-22 02:22PM | 0 recs
Re:

tease

by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-22 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

blue collar workers for Obama 2-1??? That in itself is a good estimation that this exit poll is wrong.

by American1989 2008-04-22 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

You think they would prefer a Welsley/Yale multi millionaire like Hillary?

Why?

by wrb 2008-04-22 03:28PM | 0 recs
I wouldn't put much stock in these

Charlie Cook:

The best use of exit polls is to be able to look and say, approximately, how various demographic groups voted, after the election is over and after the data have been cleaned up.  Anything more and you are simply engaging in mental masturbation.

by kos 2008-04-22 02:29PM | 0 recs
wow...

never heard of mental masturbation before.  The thought grosses me out...

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 03:27PM | 0 recs
Re: I wouldn't put much stock in these

Hey, have the children over there taken to acting like grown ups yet?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:30PM | 0 recs
This is the end for Hillary

She needed a big win tonight.  The pressure for her to drop out will be massive if Obama is within 3-5 points of her tonight.

The fat lady (Monica L.) is warming up her voice.

by bigdcdem 2008-04-22 02:29PM | 0 recs
TR'd for the last sentence. n/t

by Elsinora 2008-04-22 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: This is the end for Hillary

If Hillary doesn't win by 100% she won't have met expectations. Clearly a single vote for Obama will mean a catastrophic failure by the Clinton campaign.

(Just trying to get my feet wet with this expectations game thing.)

by mhojo 2008-04-22 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: This is the end for Hillary

Those references are not helpful.

by Skaje 2008-04-22 02:48PM | 0 recs
TR'ed for the baseless accusation

Monica L. is not fat...

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 03:29PM | 0 recs
Clinton by 8 -Obama Supporter

I'm a avid Obama supporter but looking at the 20 fresh polls over the last 2 days, I think it's Clinton by 8pts.  

Obama always exit polls better than final.  

Clinton by 8, 10 net delegates, no change in the overall picture.  

by nextgen 2008-04-22 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong

If these polls are even close then its going to be a good night for Obama given media expectations. He should be winning comfortably but he's set the bar at 8-10pts for Hillary.

by liberalj 2008-04-22 02:29PM | 0 recs
I don't believe the exit polls.

Obama isn't going to win PA.  I don't care what the exit polls say.  Hopefully he can keep his loss in the single digits.

by map 2008-04-22 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Interesting CNN statistic that Markos somehow must have forgot to include.

Of people that made their decision based on watching the last debate: 58C, 42O

Just so we're clear about why the North Carolina debate was cancelled.

by cc 2008-04-22 02:36PM | 0 recs
Clinton won late deciders 58-42 overall

So the debate changed nothing

by MILiberal 2008-04-22 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton won late deciders 58-42 overall

Which is appropriate, since it was about nothing.

by mhojo 2008-04-22 02:47PM | 0 recs
Assuming 8% were undecided...

which is the pollster average, we're talking about Clinton only gaining a bit over 1% out of these late deciders.  

by telephasic 2008-04-22 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

No, 58-42 is late deciders - nowhere does it specify the role the debate had. Indeed, that's actually pretty consistent with what has happened throughout all of the primaries thus far (people 'coming home' to what's familiar).

Keep up with that spin, though!

by gcensr 2008-04-22 03:07PM | 0 recs
I'll be making my prediction tomorrow

Probably around noon.  Until then, beer me.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-22 02:38PM | 0 recs
CNN: Clinton Will Win

Although they are not making an official projection, CNN on their web site said that their exit polls suggest that Clinton won the Pennslyvania primary as Obama's edge on new Democratic voters was offset by late deciding voters. They suggest that African-Americans went for Obama 92-8, but white males went for Clinton 55-45.

by Zzyzzy 2008-04-22 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: CNN: Clinton Will Win

While I think Clinton will win by 8-10% you should re-read the CNN article.  The say polls suggest Clinton will win Pennslyvania, not exit polls.  

by nextgen 2008-04-22 02:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

late deciders for hillary with 58%

by American1989 2008-04-22 02:50PM | 0 recs
if that is correct

which i doubt because exit polling sucks

look at a win between 10-18

by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-22 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

The diary should be ashamed of himself for touting an NRO story that presents NO SOURCE WHATSOEVER.

by kingsbridge77 2008-04-22 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

That would be roughly a tie if AA's make up 20%

by CardBoard 2008-04-22 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

AAs make up only 10 percent of the PA population, so you can't compare the percentages and get any idea of it.

by Scotch 2008-04-22 03:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Put they make up a large number of Dem Primary voters

by CardBoard 2008-04-22 03:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania

I am not worried.  I still think Hillary will win by 12-15%.

by observer11 2008-04-22 02:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama
It's too early to tell.
Has anyone heard about the after work turnout?
I imagine it's huge- they had lines at 8AM this morning (only 20-25 people, but hey)!
by skohayes 2008-04-22 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama

I repeat Fox News has Hillary winning the college grad vote 54 to 46. I think that says a lot or am I wrong.

by handsomegent 2008-04-22 03:08PM | 0 recs
cautiously optimistic,optimistically resigned

Still think Clinton by 12-14....

Exit polls have been not very reliable so far.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-22 03:05PM | 0 recs
a friend

was exit polled this morning -

by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-22 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Looking at these exit polls, doesn't look like Clinton's going to pull out that big 12-15 point win that would give her a major boost she really needs.  I just see her money problems getting worse and worse without a big momentum boost to bring in the donations.  Of course these exit polls are crap and are prpbably completely wrong.  On the front page of Kos, it says Obama was +2 in exit polls at this time yet ended up -10.

by reggie23 2008-04-22 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

If it's any solace to the MyDD Crowd, the hated Kos is reeling in expectations of an Obama close call...

Setting up the big orange for a double digit loss?

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-22 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Kos is reeling in expectations of an Obama close call...

The same Kos that called Texas +12 for Obama?

LOL

Kos is to punditry what Zogby is to polling.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

oops, meant to say. . . . . +2 in exit polls at this time in Ohio, yet ended up -10

by reggie23 2008-04-22 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

apples and oranges.

There was early voting in Ohio, none in Penn.

by gcensr 2008-04-22 03:30PM | 0 recs
Ambinder

Best comment I've seen in a while:

"We humans don't have much in the way of a probability filter"

by DaveOinSF 2008-04-22 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In

Obama has tended to do better in early exit polls than in final results.

I suspect it is because his more fired-up supporters vote earlier

by wrb 2008-04-22 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania

If the exit polls are wrong, I hope people will remember this before starting again with the "real Democrats" meme.  Exit polls are bunk.

by rfahey22 2008-04-22 03:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Rendell was just on saying he thought Clinton would be by 6-8 points.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-22 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

arggghh...Clinton would BE the winner by 6-8 points.

Folks, you can't just multiply percentages of demographic categories by their vote choice because you don't know how much each group turned out.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-22 03:22PM | 0 recs
Why margin matters

For everyone trying to say it doesn't matter if it's a narrow victory, remember that delegates are the final say of who's going to get the nomination. Margins matter because we don't run a first past the post system in the Democratic primary. Over 10 point margins are vital for Clinton because they start to tip 3-3 Congressional Districts into 4-2s, etc.

So while we can argue about the psychological boost or whatever of a 5 point win, at the end of the day numbers are an objective reality, and if you're behind by 140 in the fourth quarter you gotta start making big dents in your opponent's lead to say you're catching up.

by tedit 2008-04-22 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Just a quick note...When Clinton supporters claim Clinton has won the big states like Ohio, Cal, PA, etc. and Obama can't win them in the GE, I just have to remind people he won a majority of the big cities and urban areas that Dems need to carry in the GE.  She gets a lot of her votes in rural areas in the big states that traditionally are a GOP stronghold.  Let's keep things in perspective...

by hootie4170 2008-04-22 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

"She gets a lot of her votes in rural areas in the big states that traditionally are a GOP stronghold.  Let's keep things in perspective..."

Yes, let's do.  If Kerry could have carried some of those rural voters in Ohio, he'd be running for re-election this year.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Well then shouldn't Obama supporters claim Hillary can't win the big cities and urban areas in big states?

by hootie4170 2008-04-22 03:52PM | 0 recs
So

who is better for down ticket races then?

cities will stay Name-D-state. its the rural and suburban areas that are tougher to crack. Since Hillary is stronger there, then isnt she better for downticket races?

That is your logic at play.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-22 03:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

If for no other reason than these exit polls were done FOUR HOURS (I'm including an hour for collection and processing in there) before the polls close they mean nothing. They could be a 100% accurate reflection of the voting up until 4 or 5pm and STILL be way off the final result.

by Addison 2008-04-22 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking

Obama has already exited the state.  There's your answer.  It won't be a nailbiter or he would still be around.  

by Scotch 2008-04-22 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking

Oh please...

This has been his tactic. He plants himself in the next battle state, it has NOTHING to do with him winning or losing....

Sheesh, this has been debunk already on it's own thread...

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-22 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking

Not a state as big as PA. If he were to win in PA and not be here, that would be a slap in the face to all the people who worked for him and voted for him.

by Scotch 2008-04-22 04:03PM | 0 recs
National Review???

How could anyone actually report this National Review trash? The entire link reads like some bad Saturday Night live skit

by pollbuster 2008-04-22 03:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

A note, that if it stays roughly around 5 points Obama will actually walk away with more delegates.

by CardBoard 2008-04-22 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

Are you proud of that? Democracy at its best. If that indeed happens, it will be the third state in which Clinton won the popular vote but received less delegates.

by RJEvans 2008-04-22 03:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Looking Strong In Early Pennsylvania Exi

It is a delegate race, by the rules, I'm stating the facts.  I'm actually in favor of delegate apportionment as is, as well as the Electoral college as is... I think it is important that the NE and the Coast and urban centers do not hold all the political power in this country.  I know that is not popular, but I think it is good.

by CardBoard 2008-04-22 03:46PM | 0 recs

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