Last call for PA expectations
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 10:43:59 AM EDT
Obama says he doesn't expect to win, but do better than expected. The Clinton camp says a win is a win and that's that. Here's something that ought to frame the expectations game. The monthly averages for the polls, via here, were:
February: 47.8 - 38.3, a 9.5% margin for Clinton
March: 51.3 - 38.4, a 12.9% margin for Clinton
April: 45 - 38.6, a 6.4% margin for Clinton
The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton [since Super Tuesday on Feb 5th]. Also, despite all the resources Obama has put into PA, he had been stuck at 38 for three months. Now, the final poll of polls shows it a bit closer. The last 10 polls show 50 percent for Clinton and 42.8 percent for Obama.
The Obama spreadsheet projection was that Clinton would win 52-47. I doubt Obama gets there. I have a 'head' outcome that says Clinton by 7.5% and a gut that says Clinton by 12%, and I usually go with the gut, but I just can't imagine that Obama would be able to outspend at a 3:1 clip over Clinton, with all the advantages he has, and only gain 6 points from where he started in February, losing by double-digits. Could it happen?
RCP and 535 are good reads for more on the expectations game. Al Giordano thinks Obama will best his own expectations, predicting a Clinton victory by just 4.6 percent. Mark Blumenthal has a end analysis too, wrap-up, including this insight: