Last call for PA expectations

Obama says he doesn't expect to win, but do better than expected. The Clinton camp says a win is a win and that's that. Here's something that ought to frame the expectations game. The monthly averages for the polls, via here, were:

February: 47.8 - 38.3, a 9.5% margin for Clinton
March: 51.3 - 38.4, a 12.9% margin for Clinton
April: 45 - 38.6, a 6.4% margin for Clinton

The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton [since Super Tuesday on Feb 5th]. Also, despite all the resources Obama has put into PA, he had been stuck at 38 for three months. Now, the final poll of polls shows it a bit closer. The last 10 polls show 50 percent for Clinton and 42.8 percent for Obama.

The Obama spreadsheet projection was that Clinton would win 52-47. I doubt Obama gets there. I have a 'head' outcome that says Clinton by 7.5% and a gut that says Clinton by 12%, and I usually go with the gut, but I just can't imagine that Obama would be able to outspend at a 3:1 clip over Clinton, with all the advantages he has, and only gain 6 points from where he started in February, losing by double-digits. Could it happen?

RCP and 535 are good reads for more on the expectations game. Al Giordano thinks Obama will best his own expectations, predicting a Clinton victory by just 4.6 percent. Mark Blumenthal has a end analysis too, wrap-up, including this insight:

Gallup's Frank Newport looked at the evidence on this question last Friday (a post worth reading) and "neatly" concluded that "undecideds either will or will not break for Clinton in Pennsylvania." That's about right.
But then this: "...the more sensitive estimate -- which gives greater weight to more recent polls (including a few that had not been tracking a week ago) -- shows a slightly bigger Clinton margin (8.4 points)."See this map, the final 50.4 to 42 margin in PA being a tad greater than the final 50.1 to 43 margin in OH.

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

133 Comments

Could it happen?

I'm sure that if it did Jerome would have the worlds first blogasm.

by beermeister 2008-04-22 10:45AM | 0 recs
Tacky comment.

Those sort of comments repel a lot of potential Obama supporters.  Great job in putting your own ego above your chosen candidate.

by TomP 2008-04-22 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Could it happen?

That is so crude and tacky.  How old are you anyway?  14?

by JustJennifer 2008-04-22 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Could it happen?

Age has nothing to do with it. 'Creative Class' elitist snobs are empowered by the Magic Man to take a shit on anyone they feel like starting with all the uppity bitches out there.

Well, looks like 'the magic has gone away....'

Good thing say I.

by Pericles 2008-04-22 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Could it happen?

RE: your language and name-calling -- Two wrongs don't make a right.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-22 11:35AM | 0 recs
Clinton by 14

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton by 14

yup.....

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-22 10:53AM | 0 recs
Course

only prophets and fools make predictions =)

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Course

I certainly qualify for the latter...

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-22 11:05AM | 0 recs
all of us do :)

by SevenStrings 2008-04-22 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton by 14
For sure Clinton by 14, maybe more. :)

I already voted today. Paper ballots were a first for me. It feels good to have a receipt in my wallet for my vote. Not like the sinking feeling that your vote disappeared into cyberspace.
by Nag 2008-04-22 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

so when is obama going to win a big state in, besides illinois? the chances are slipping away, and his expectations spin is pretty much an acknowlegement that he's going to fail again in PA. and it's getting late in the campaign.

i guess it's time to deputize indiana as a big state, and try to win there.

by campskunk 2008-04-22 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

very true. All the numbers look so very bad for him. I expect Obama to concede tonight.

ha!

by SeanF 2008-04-22 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

not hardly- the obama campaign has been tip-toeing around this elephant in the living room for months. the superdelegates are not so blind.

by campskunk 2008-04-22 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I suppose that's why, in the last 6 weeks, Obama has added something like 30-40 superdelegates, whereas Clinton has added a couple?

Yes, they do seem to be slowly making their choice...

by SeanF 2008-04-22 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

leaving aside the question of the accuracy of your numbers, i'm not talking about superdelegates who have declared. i'm talking about the hundreds of superdelegates sitting on their hands. they are watching.

as john mcintyre says:

1) Given the likelihood that Obama will overwhelmingly carry black voters and young voters, a 10+ point Clinton win, will mean Obama performed terribly among blue-collar whites. This will exacerbate angst among undecided superdelegates, fully aware that the most reasonable Democratic pathways to 270 electoral votes include wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Jersey.

2) A double-digit win keeps Clinton in position to be able to ultimately claim a victory in the popular vote. And a win in the popular vote is critical to the Clinton campaign's ultimate strategy for the nomination, as it gives superdelegates the rationale (and more importantly the cover) to buck all the emotional investment in Obama as the nominee.

unless obama can make those pie-in-the-sky electoral vote stories about wyoming come true, he's not going to convince the superdelegates. they are true party loyalists - they just want to win. they aren't romantics. the moonlight and magnolias approach works with young voters- not party officials.

by the way, obama is 0 for 3 in OH, MI, and NJ. get ready for 0 for 4 as PA comes in tonight.

by campskunk 2008-04-22 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Well yes, but your link states that the only way any of this kicks in, is if she beats him by more than 10 points. Even that is pretty large conjecture, given the numerical advantages Obama has.

Per your article, if her win is under 10 points, all the SDs will feel they have permission to abandon HRC and finally settle on Obama. So I don't think he's as supportive to your cause as you think he is.

I know it's hard be on a sinking ship. But can't you have a bit of grace with your arguments? All this stuff you spew is so desperate and dishonest. I'm worried about you and your emotional well-being...

by SeanF 2008-04-22 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

UM.....North carolina is one of the 10 largest states in the USA....

by feliks 2008-04-22 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations
Really? How many electoral votes?
by Nag 2008-04-22 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

15 - but they haven't voted for a Dem since 1976.

by mikes101 2008-04-22 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

but they haven't voted for a Dem since 1976.

Yeah, and that worked out real well!

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

NC will go Obama in single digits. Low single digits hopefully.

NC Latinos and Asians for Hillary.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-22 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

North Carolina:

Obama 62
Clinton 37

Indiana:

Clinton 50.7
Obama 48.3

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 12:08PM | 0 recs
November. nt

by bawbie 2008-04-22 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

He needn't worry.  He'll get a second chance in November.  Best to let Hliary have them on the one contest she'll ever fight there.

by lockewasright 2008-04-22 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Obama won the most delegates in Texas and this is a race for delegates. I know, you're going to say Texas isn't in play in the general election. Well, Obama also won 7 of 9 of the biggest states that were close in the 2004 presidential election. What about MI and FL, you ask? Obama is, without having set foot in MI, polling ahead of both Clinton and McCain there. Give him some time in FL and they'll come around too.

Clinton will have a very difficult time making this big state argument stick.

by grasshopper 2008-04-22 11:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

by campskunk 2008-04-22 10:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I feel (that gut thing) Clinton by 10-12.  Turnout extremely heavy in both Philly area and even heavier than expected heavy in Western PA.  Apparently also they are getting a lot of calls from potential voters who want to vote but never changed their registration, dunno what that is about.  

Anyway, 10-12, more likely 12.  Sniff.

by mady 2008-04-22 10:51AM | 0 recs
Obama would be over 45 in the polls

Obama would be over 45% in the polls if this thing were truly close. We may be looking at a sleeper blowout here. Obama has slogged his way through since MS, and I peg him at 40% of the vote. Sorry Clinton haters.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-04-22 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Obama folds Pennsylvania tent to focus on hitting the ground in Evansville, Indiana today.  Obama's camp shouldn't count his NC chickens so soon.

Let's drive Hillary's momentum into North Carolina and attack his undefended stronghold, let's close the gap with NC Latinos and Asians for Hillary.  

Get Out the VOTE Hillary '08 GOTV.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-04-22 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

lets all buy Jerome a drink tonight. cheers to a marvelous blog and level headed analysis. They dont call you the blogfather for nothing.

by zane 2008-04-22 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Regarding the 20 point lead that never was:

PPP (D)    03/15 - 03/16    597 LV    56    30    Clinton +26.0
SurveyUSA    03/08 - 03/10    608 LV    55    36    Clinton +19.0
Strategic Vision (R)    03/07 - 03/09    600 LV    56    38    Clinton +18.0
ARG*    04/12 - 04/13    600 LV    57    37    Clinton +20.0

do I need to go on?

by feliks 2008-04-22 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Sure, you could go on to include the polls from the same time period that were much closer.

You don't get to cherrypick the handful of polls that were most favorable for Hillary in order to claim she had a 20-point lead.  Do you seriously believe PPP is accurate when they say Hillary has a 26-point lead, and then 2 weeks later their next poll has Obama ahead?

by Steve M 2008-04-22 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I was disputing the diarists claim that a 2o point lead NEVER existed when in fact it did.

by feliks 2008-04-22 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Okay, so by your logic, Obama was ahead and blew it.  Awesome.

by Steve M 2008-04-23 06:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Cherry picking didn't help Washington and it doesn't help you.

Two polls show 20 or more...out of what? 30?  40?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 12:09PM | 0 recs
C: 53, O: 46

Also hoping for a nice Ron Paul protest vote today as well.

That would embaress McSame, and Philly was a stronghold of Paultardianism.

by pinche tejano 2008-04-22 10:56AM | 0 recs
Yeah

and the master hobbit held a rally at Penn State that drew 5k paultards there.

And the paultards are on the air with their cartoon ad in Philly.

by Student Guy 2008-04-22 11:05AM | 0 recs
I am Paultard Alpha.

Ask around.

Almost all the nYc paultard antics were my handy work.

But that was about kneecapping neocons.

by pinche tejano 2008-04-22 11:29AM | 0 recs
Minneapolis

had a significant true believer paultard component.  I went undercover for a while.  He did decently in my precinct caucuses, though they were mad when they found out that I didn't caucus for him.

by Student Guy 2008-04-22 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Under 5

by lojasmo 2008-04-22 10:57AM | 0 recs
My gut feeling - Hillary by

12% to 14%. Hold on to your hats folks, it's going to be an exciting night!

by Rumarhazzit 2008-04-22 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

You know I'm sick of hearing how many resources Obama has put into PA the last 6 weeks, and how if he doesn't win the state it is a "poor showing".

1. This state is demographically tailor made for Clinton.

2. The Clintons have been campaigning in PA for 15 years and have strong roots there....To somehow think six weeks of resources (no matter the cost) would have a dramatic effect is just ignoring reality.

3. Clinton has the entire PA Machine behind her.

Clinton supporters can downplay PA as "a win is a win is a win" and spin it however they want.  The point is with each passing contest the Clinton spin will become less and less effective unless she has a unforeseen primary win(s).

by hootie4170 2008-04-22 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Yeah, some people just don't get the idea that television ads only win so many votes.  I mean, isn't it sort of "elitist" to think that people will just vote however the teevee told them to?

I think the spending served a dual purpose, only one of which is really being discussed: a) it keeps the margin closer, and b) it forces Clinton to spend money in PA that would otherwise be reserved for IN or NC.  Not the most exciting strategy but effective nonetheless.

by rfahey22 2008-04-22 11:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Good Grief! Running TV ads is now elitist?? I'm sure Hillary would have run more ads if she had more money.

by feliks 2008-04-22 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

You really didn't read that one thoroughly.

by rfahey22 2008-04-22 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

he's the media's "Golden Boy", don't discount that huuuuge advantage for him.

by BlueDoggyDogg 2008-04-22 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

If the shoe fits......

by hootie4170 2008-04-22 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

As to the "never a 20% lead" comment -- http://www.pollster.com/08PAPresDemsZOOM r.php

shows that the lead was indeed 20% in January.  In February it began to diminish.

by texasobserver 2008-04-22 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Do you realize there was only one poll taken in January?

What you are really saying is that, nevermind the whole primary season this year, Clinton held a 20 point lead in 2007, lol.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-04-22 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

sorry for being repetitive:
All MARCH AND APRIL:

Regarding the 20 point lead that never was:

PPP (D)    03/15 - 03/16    597 LV    56    30    Clinton +26.0
SurveyUSA    03/08 - 03/10    608 LV    55    36    Clinton +19.0
Strategic Vision (R)    03/07 - 03/09    600 LV    56    38    Clinton +18.0
ARG*    04/12 - 04/13    600 LV    57    37    Clinton +20.0

by feliks 2008-04-22 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

shows that the lead was indeed 20% in January

Check what it was in early 2007 if you want to go back to an arbitrary point in time.  She was +17 from January to June 2007  

Just a sampling of Jan-Jun 2007 polls:

Quinnipiac 06/18 - 06/25 444 RV 32 18 Clinton +14.0
Keystone Poll 05/29 - 06/07 200 RV 40 18 Clinton +22.0
Quinnipiac 05/22 - 05/28 585 RV 33 13 Clinton +20.0
Quinnipiac 04/17 - 04/24 425 RV 36 14 Clinton +22.0
Strategic Vision (R) 04/13 - 04/15 LV 33 23 Clinton +10.0
Quinnipiac 03/19 - 03/25 506 RV 36 17 Clinton +19.0
Strategic Vision (R) 03/16 - 03/18 LV 35 25 Clinton +10.0
Quinnipiac 02/25 - 03/04 488 RV 29 18 Clinton +11.0
Quinnipiac 02/01 - 02/05 442 RV 37 11 Clinton +26.0
American Res. Group 01/04 - 01/08 600 LV 32 13 Clinton +19.0

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations
Yesterday I was thinking 8-9, but now I'm thinking 10-11 might be possible.  Late polls seem to be breaking her way.
Mark
by markjay 2008-04-22 11:00AM | 0 recs
I don't have the exact numbers

but it looks like 20 in January to me.

Photobucket

by bookish 2008-04-22 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: I don't have the exact numbers

There is only one poll on the data set in January.  Yes it does look like 20 but that is hardly a vast consensus.  Also January was a long, long time ago - why not just go back to last September?

by mikes101 2008-04-22 11:10AM | 0 recs
Caveats, caveats

And I love, "There was never...(before...)."

I certainly think it's fair to consider polls where the eventual frontrunners had settled in to their roles. Don't forget the ARG outlier last week.

If you don't understand why it's so entertaining to watch the contortionist displays around here, then you're taking yourself way too seriously.

by bookish 2008-04-22 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: I don't have the exact numbers

L M F A O @ 1 data point to determine it was 20 in January.

That's rich.

That poll?  Keystone Poll 01/08 - 01/14 286 RV 40 20 Clinton +20.0

286 voters!! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

and 1 data point!  HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Edwards still in it (11%) and lots of undecideds (29%)

What a tool

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 12:16PM | 0 recs
Hey smartass..

SurveyUSA    03/08 - 03/10    608 LV    55    36    Clinton +19.0
PPP (D)    03/15 - 03/16    597 LV    56    30    Clinton +26.0
ARG      04/12 - 04/13    600 LV    57    37    Clinton +20.0

a-ha. ha.

And I'll be laughing a whole lot harder in a little over a month, tool.

by bookish 2008-04-22 01:00PM | 0 recs
My bad...

Clearly from your diaries, having no preferred candidate, you're just here to stir the pot (be it in the most assaholic way possible), despite some of the commenters' attempts to point out that Jerome's words were, in a way, untrue.

Hope this is - in the least - a good therapeutic exercise for you.

by bookish 2008-04-22 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

The February polling you cite was in context of Obama's post Super Tuesday string of 11 successive victories, coming back to earth in March after Ohio and Texas. Hence Clinton's average 13% margin.  And she did in fact have a 20% lead in only January poll taken, also in those taken at end 2007.  

I don't begrudge HRC supporters trying to spin the result as positively as possible on her behalf.  A win is a win.  That said, those citing Obama's ad spending advantage might also note Clinton's huge advantage in support from the state and city (both Philly and the Burgh) Democratic machines.  

Having lived in Pittsburgh for more than a decade I was pleased to learn that former mayor Sophie Masloff is still active, even if she did pledge her superdelegate vote to Clinton.  

by Kensingtonbill 2008-04-22 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

All MARCH AND APRIL:

Regarding the 20 point lead that never was:

PPP (D)    03/15 - 03/16    597 LV    56    30    Clinton +26.0
SurveyUSA    03/08 - 03/10    608 LV    55    36    Clinton +19.0
Strategic Vision (R)    03/07 - 03/09    600 LV    56    38    Clinton +18.0
ARG*    04/12 - 04/13    600 LV    57    37    Clinton +20.0

by feliks 2008-04-22 11:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

2 polls out of dozens show 20+

Cherry picker.

And ARG?  LMFAO

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

well the diarists contention was that there NEVER was a 20 point lead......I was correcting him.

by feliks 2008-04-22 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Well, if you want to use polls from months ago before there was even a contested race, I guess that's your right.  It's flawed, though.

When no one knew of Obama in August of 2007, of course he was down 20.  Once he was known post Super Tuesday, the lead for her was never consistently at or over 20.  Just at 20 in 2 polls really.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

c'mon double digits!  but i'm thinking it will be a CA & OH-type margin, 7 to 9% victory for Hillary.

by BlueDoggyDogg 2008-04-22 11:03AM | 0 recs
12-14

And all hell breaking loose afterwards

by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-22 11:04AM | 0 recs
spreadsheet

The spreadsheet also gave Obama smaller-than-actual victories in Washington State, Maine, Wisconsin, etc. He's ahead of where the spreadsheet has him.

by niq 2008-04-22 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I'm sticking by my prediction yesterday:

Clinton by 17 or 15

HRC 58, BHO 41

or

HRC 57, BHO 42

by katrinareyes 2008-04-22 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations
The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton.

There were plenty of polls that had her around or above a 20-point lead -- look at the RCP numbers from the beginning of the year through mid-march.  14 polls with an average of a 14.6-point lead.
by ChrisKaty 2008-04-22 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Look at the link I provided, it lists all the polls for all three months. Go and check my numbers. Now, if you want to say that the last three months don't count, and go back to a single poll that was taken in January as the marker, I guess you can, but it be a bit too much of deception game to say that Obama is doing great because of one poll done in Jan.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-04-22 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

All MARCH AND APRIL:

Regarding the 20 point lead that never was:

PPP (D)    03/15 - 03/16    597 LV    56    30    Clinton +26.0
SurveyUSA    03/08 - 03/10    608 LV    55    36    Clinton +19.0
Strategic Vision (R)    03/07 - 03/09    600 LV    56    38    Clinton +18.0
ARG*    04/12 - 04/13    600 LV    57    37    Clinton +20.0

by feliks 2008-04-22 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

As you know Jerome, pollster.com shows the running average of polling results day by day (or perhaps I should say, poll by poll.)  So I think it is an accurate description of the real state of affairs.  If you want to say "hasn't been 20% since January" you are correct.

by texasobserver 2008-04-22 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Now, if you want to say that the last three months don't count, and go back to a single poll that was taken in January as the marker, I guess you can

Huh?  Nice straw man -- I wasn't biasing up that one January poll any more than any other poll, nor did I even insinuate that the last three months don't count.  I just went to RCP and averaged every poll from the beginning of the year to mid-March, when it looked like Obama began to close the gap some.

As far as your math goes, yeah, it looks suspect to me unless I'm missing something.  How is April an average of 45-38 when Clinton's only polled under 45 three times in April, and Obama's only polled under 38 twice?  Your numbers seem low for both candidates.

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-22 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Just to follow up -- if I really wanted to cherry-pick numbers, I would have included the 3 pre-January polls, where Clinton was up by 28, 33, and 27 points.  But I felt that was really before the race had begun in earnest, and so started with the first of the year instead.

But regardless, that's where some of the "up by 20" perception is coming from.  Virtually all of the 2007 polling had massive leads for Clinton.  The smallest I see is 11, and the largest is 33 from early November.

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-22 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

There were also plenty of polls that had Obama within 5 points or even ahead.

Do you think it's fair, based on that, to claim that if Obama loses today he will have "blown a lead" in Pennsylvania?  Or do you think it's more fair to look at polling averages, as Jerome does in this post?

by Steve M 2008-04-22 11:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Or do you think it's more fair to look at polling averages, as Jerome does in this post?

Given that what I posted was an average of polls, I think it's safe to say that I agree that looking at averages of polls is the way to go.

I just found Clinton's numbers considerably stronger in my averages than Jerome's.

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-22 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

14.6 is not 20.

And if she wins tonight by 11, it's hardly a huge drop from the 14.6 you obtained by arbitrary time selection

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 12:19PM | 0 recs
Clinton's comments


   contradict those of her husband, who said just a couple of weeks ago that she needs a BIG win in PA.

  might want to get their stories straight for spin tonite.

by southernman 2008-04-22 11:06AM | 0 recs
She's going to the convention

RCP and 535 are good reads for more on the expectations game.

Who's John McIntyre? What right does YET ANOTHER GUY have to tell a woman to quit?

by nonwhiteperson 2008-04-22 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: She's going to the convention

Yeah! Women should have their own, female political commentators who can only comment on women. After all, discussing delegate math can be very sexist.

Seperate water fountains too. Equal, but separate.

by Lettuce 2008-04-22 11:23AM | 0 recs
Also from RCP

Remember - no candidate who has won as many votes and delegates as Clinton hasn't taken the fight to the convention.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horsera ceblog/2008/04/unconventional_thoughts_o n_the.html

by nonwhiteperson 2008-04-22 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Also from RCP

I wonder who else can claim that. Some black guy. Can't recall the name.

by Lettuce 2008-04-22 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Clinton has gop women voting for her.

Clinton by 20.

by gotalife 2008-04-22 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

At a certain point, "expectations" cease to matter.  The endgame here is really whether Clinton can eek out a popular vote win by the end of the primaries.  If she can't, she really has no argument to make to the supers at all.  Keeping that in mind, even a high single digit win in PA -- with its extremely favorable demographics -- just aint gonna cut it.  

Also, the 3:1 $ argument strikes me as a red herring.  Sure, he outspend HRC significantly.  But she and Bill have campaigned in PA and had a huge presence there for years.  Moreover, Rendell's machine has been at her disposal the entire election.  That has huge value that at least equals the $ Obama spent.  Not to mention, he was spending cash in part to offset the worst set of external events imaginable.  

To that last point, would you really have guessed things would be even this close if I told you immediately after Mississippi that Rev. Wright would happen, and that bitterage would then follow?  

by HSTruman 2008-04-22 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Ah, yes, the typical pre-election Clinton goalpost move. Where should it be this time? The 50 yard line? The 60?

She needs a blowout for it to matter one bit. 10-12 point win won't do it.

And whil the "3-1 spending" gets mentioned here, other blogs mention Obama's month from hell, and Hillary's relatively easy ride -- something that doesn't get mentioned here.

(And don't anyone try that "Obama had it easy" routine. You'd have thought with Wright and Bitter (my new favorite pub) Obama was finished if you had only the screeds here to base it on. So any closing of the polls by him require that caveat if it's going to be similarly belittled with the spending meme.)

That said, odds are it'll be a decent Clinton win, something her supporters should enjoy. The hangover of what it ultimately means to her electoral prospects -- and Obama's -- is something we'll all begin to deal with, hmmm, Friday?

by Lettuce 2008-04-22 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Typical Obamoid comment -- you actually don't think you need HRC voters in November, do you? Silly, silly Obamoid.

by Jim J 2008-04-22 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Obamoid?

And no, we don't need "HRC" voters. We need Democratic Party voters. I trust HRC voters will become Party voters again when the primary ends, as will Obama supporters if the primary somehow tilts that way.

And where do you get the "don't need hrc voters" from my post? I was talking delegate math and trying to temper excuses from both sides...

by Lettuce 2008-04-22 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

hahaha, Jerome you don't cease to amuse me with your "unbiased" observations! I remember how 6 weeks ago you wrote a WHOLE big post about how it was exciting a poll had come out for Clinton leading by 20 points.. you were like WOW, WOW, WOW..hahaha and now you are trying to set your own expectations game. Just know that everybody can see right through it, you are trying to set the expectations low for Clinton and the Obama people are trying to set the expectations for Obama low and That's all there is to it!!! Clinton used to lead by 20 points and that's evaporated.. and So What!

by er1975 2008-04-22 11:23AM | 0 recs
by mady 2008-04-22 11:25AM | 0 recs
I love

Jerome's reference to "all the advantages Obama has."  Jerome knows as well as all of us that Pennsylvania is a singularly advantageous state for Clinton, but he says silly things like this anyway.

It would be like me saying that I can't believe Obama is leading by so much in North Carolina despite all the advantages Clinton has there.

by snaktime 2008-04-22 11:29AM | 0 recs
Re: I love

Bleeding 20% is a victory!

by MuddyWaters 2008-04-22 11:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

The best thing Clinton and mydd.com has to offer Pennsylvania is polling.  Just in case you're curious why we keep losing elections.

by MuddyWaters 2008-04-22 11:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

According to jerome, Obama is the favorite in PA since he has spent the most money..hahahaha

by er1975 2008-04-22 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

same margin as Massachusetts 15%

by darlene25 2008-04-22 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I have learned that the blogosphere is always wrong. Whatever the blogs say, bet on the exact opposite happening.

Therefore I'm taking the median of both the inverse of the dKos consensus (Barack and Jay-Z will beat the bitch by eleventy-kajillion points!) and the inverse of the mydd consensus (HRC by 12-14 points).

That means an Obama win by tenty-kajillion, 999 bajillion, 999 quatroons, 999.

by Jim J 2008-04-22 11:39AM | 0 recs
My final prediction


   Clinton 54%
   Obama   46%

  Clinton claims big win...Obama claims stalled Clinton momentum. Clinton doesn't get the popular vote count necessary to catch Obama, nor the necessary amount of delegates.

  If Clinton, for some reason, loses...we'll suddenly hear how when she said PA was a must win, she really meant IN.

by southernman 2008-04-22 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I predict . . . an Obama win!

I have seen from more than one source:

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/homepa ge/20080420_The_big_switch__Democrats_st eadily_gaining_in_region.html?imageId=76 71609

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2008/ 4/20/173938/448

Basically, the districts that showed the most growth during the registration drives were in areas favoring Obama.  In Clinton strongholds, new registration was almost flat.

ADD to it the fact that most polls are underrepresenting these voters, could be a recipe for an upset. . .

In all honesty, I don't see Obama winning, but if he runs up large margins in Philly and vacinity, and Pittsburgh metro, this will be inside of 5 points.

by Inmyforces 2008-04-22 11:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

The best Clinton will get is another gasp of depleted oxygen to drag on her tryst with futility.

by dback 2008-04-22 11:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations


   I love how Jerome tries to spin PA as a lost advantage for Obama.

  It's not that Hillary won both OH and NJ on either side. It's not as if New York borders Pennsylvania...I heard a rumor that Hillary and NY are close...oh wait she lives there!

  But yes, PA should've been an Obama stronghold...RIIIIIIIIIIGHHHHHHHHHHHTTTT TTTT!!!!!!

  Very nice.

by southernman 2008-04-22 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-04-22 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Sorry, I got excited and prematurely commented.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-04-22 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton [since Super Tuesday on Feb 5th].

{{{spin}}}

by dback 2008-04-22 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Dude, it wasn't.

I mean, are you immune to math? or logic?  Or what?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I could have included the numbers, but they're posted upthread. Check them out, please.

by dback 2008-04-22 12:00PM | 0 recs
I think it's your selective vision

and/or comprehension, Reg.

Desperate folks tend to lash out in the most irrational and unattractive ways...

by bookish 2008-04-22 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: I think it's your selective vision

I guess I just have a different way of viewing polls and selecting a suite of them to come to an opinion, rather than Cherry Picking them.

I've said all along I dislike both candidates, Clinton slightly moreso as I know her better as my Senator.  But, that doesn't mean I am unqualified to give my take on the polls you partisians are using for spin.

Clinton did not hold a consistent 20 point lead from Super Tuesday onward.  It's just that simple.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: I think it's your selective vision
Clinton did not hold a consistent 20 point lead from Super Tuesday onward.  It's just that simple.

True, but she did through all of last year up until Super Tuesday.
by ChrisKaty 2008-04-22 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: I think it's your selective vision

but she did through all of last year up until Super Tuesday.

Right, but of course she did then!  Who knew Barack Obama in July of 2007 in most states?  Sure they might have heard of him, but not at the level they did by his Iowa victory.

Using polls from 8-10 months ago is just intellectually disingenuous, because there were more candidates involved, there was no real race yet, and she was the media odds on favorite to win.  All of that changed when Iowa kicked it off.  We wouldn't or certainly shouldn't cite July 2007 General Election polls to show November 2008 movement!  The same holds true for primaries at a state level.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:46PM | 0 recs
You're right

The random 20-point polls that have been used as evidence didn't prove a pattern. And folks like myself reacted negatively to Jerome's contention that there had never been a 20-point gap (since February 5). Both sides were wrong in very partisan ways.

by bookish 2008-04-22 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

The one thing that easy to see is this was never a "20 percent lead" by Clinton

Jerome...I think you've been reading my posts.  I am not a Clinton fan by any means, or Obama for that fact, but I am really tired of hearing how he was down "20-30 points" just a "couple of weeks ago."  Your Feb, Mar, and Apr analysis shows it's just poppycock.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 11:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Yeah he was 20 points down a few weeks/months ago and that's why he had to spend all this money to get within a reasonable margin.. if he didn't have this amount of money raised i bet he would even lose by like 25-30 points, or Clinton would be the nominee by now. This goes to show that Jerome can't just spin that Obama's spending should mean he wins.. Clinton has so many advantages in PA, to counter them he had to spend all that money and yes that might not be enough but things could have been worse. to spin it otherwise is just terrible from Jerome's part.

by er1975 2008-04-22 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

He was, however, down 20-30 points in the polls late last year.  It's been more like 10-20 this year, until about a month ago when it's been more like 5-15.

Just skim through the RCP polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-22 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

He was down 17 points from January-June 2007.

Well over a year ago...what's your point?  Still not 20.  And there is no comparison from April 2007 to now.  Nor can you use polls in October as "evidence" of a bounce in April.  It was a completely different race and dynamic back then.  I doubt PA residents even knew when their primary was going to be held back in October, since it was a foregone conclusion at that time that Clinton would win.

I think using the post Super Tuesday polls is more indicative, since it was clear at that point we had a horse race.  In doing so, you get the averages Jerome has posted.  In what do you have a problem with his methodology?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Rendell's prediction:

The guv said that, if the turnout is even through the state, Clinton will win by 6 to 10 points.

If turnout is heaviest in the Philly burbs, Clinton wins by 4 to 6 points, Rendell said.

I'd take those spreads.

by thezzyzx 2008-04-22 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

I'm posting this now to hopefully forestall any future revisions of history.

by dback 2008-04-22 11:58AM | 0 recs
SUSA is the Gold standard, right?

And 4 days after TX and OH hey had her 19 points up. If she doesn't pull double-digit win (exceeding expectations, right?) then she'll get about the same 'bounce' she got out of TX and OH, which means temporary and minor (3-5 pts).

by SuperTex 2008-04-22 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

The way I set my expectation I think is the best of all: If Clinton comes out of Penn. needing a lesser percentage of the pledge delegates left in order to win the nomination, she has 'won,' but if she falls back in term of the percentage of the delagates left she needs to win the nomination, than she has 'lost.'

what's the sweet spot, where Clinton neither 'win' nor 'looses,' but stays the same?

by adilla 2008-04-22 12:07PM | 0 recs
The Sweet Spot

The way I set my expectation I think is the best of all: If Clinton comes out of Penn. needing a lesser percentage of the pledge delegates left in order to win the nomination, she has 'won,' but if she falls back in term of the percentage of the delagates left she needs to win the nomination, than she has 'lost.'

what's the sweet spot, where Clinton neither 'win' nor 'looses,' but stays the same?

by adilla 2008-04-22 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: The Sweet Spot

The calculations for her target percentage in Pennsylvania are complicated by the uncommitted superdelegates (308 remain).  If you assumed they split 50/50, then Clinton needs would need to capture that same 64.1% of the delegates in PA to avoid falling farther behind Obama in reaching 2025.

But for theoretical comparison purposes, I will assume that the uncommitted superdelegates split in the same proportion as the pledged delegate assignments.  The delegate counts are based on the excellent site demconwatch.blogspot.com.

Here is her return on margin for the Pennsylvania race.. the first number would be her delegate percentage in PA, the second number is the percentage of delegates remaining after PA that she would then need to win to reach 2025.

50% - 69.6%
51% - 68.4%
52% - 67.3%
53% - 66.2%
54% - 65.0%
55% - 63.8%

So, even assuming a wave of superdelegates declaring in her direction, Clinton needs a 55%-45% victory in PA to avoid losing ground in the battle for the nomination.  

by Wayward Son 2008-04-22 01:44PM | 0 recs
polling

"undecideds either will or will not break for Clinton in Pennsylvania."

Wow, I should be a pollster! Here's my first prediction:

Either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will win today's primary.

by CrazyDrumGuy 2008-04-22 12:18PM | 0 recs
I agree with Jerome's gut: Clinton by 12 (n/t)

by RT 2008-04-22 12:18PM | 0 recs
HRC led by 20% avg in 2007,

and by 14-19% in the four polls after 3/4/08 (when the race shifted to PA proper), has enjoyed major institutional advantages including having Rendell and Nutter on her side, significant demographical advantages and, of course, having close family ties. Therefore, she ought to win by 20% or more.

Besides, she needs to win all of the remaining contests by 20-25% to have any shot at getting the pledged delegates lead, and if she can't match that target in PA, where else can she?


See spreadsheet: papolls

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-04-22 12:22PM | 0 recs
Financial advantage

Obama spent more because his campaign doesn't waste millions on high-priced consultants/advisors like Mark Penn and Wolfson etc.

They're frugal with how they spend the money they raise in large part from small donors and so they have more money on hand to spend money on ads as needed. Overcoming 20-30% margins and other institutional/demographic edges of Clinton is not a cakewalk; it takes some money along with Obama's good organizational skills.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-04-22 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Financial advantage

I'd refer you to the filings on Obama's pollsters.... and consider his commission racket for media.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-04-22 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Expectations game...

If Barack Obama doesn't win North Carolina by 30 points, then Hillary wins!  A 25 point victory for Obama in NC shows his message "just isn't selling."

by BPK80 2008-04-22 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

it might be a nail biter just like Rhode Island the again it may not.

by albagubrath 2008-04-22 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

/might be a nail biter just like Rhode Island /

??

Did I miss something on March 4th?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

While such ridiculous mind games are to expected from the campaigns in order to hoodwink the politically naive public at large, to attempt it on a blog like this, on the front page, in front of so many politically aware people, takes chutzpah to say the least.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-22 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

in front of so many politically aware people

lol

Politically passionate and partisian.  Aware?  Maybe in some cases.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Trust me, I wasn't thinking of you.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-22 01:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Likewise Liberal (Dodge) Avenger!

:-)

by reggie44pride 2008-04-22 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-22 09:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Last call for PA expectations

Just to make sure I understand your position correctly: Clinton hasn't enjoyed a 20 point lead since she lost her 20 point lead?

Well, that sounds true. I'm just not sure your intellectually dishonest way of trying to make that mean "she never had a 20 point lead" has much mileage to it.

by Justin Alexander 2008-04-22 03:32PM | 0 recs

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