Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

IA has their poll out in PA, showing a 49-39 point lead for Clinton. They will also have Monday results out, as will Zogby, so we are going to be poll reading tomorrow as well.

A couple things to note about the vote counting tomorrow. Traditionally, I've noticed that Philadelphia suburbs tend to report earliest in statewide elections. Because of the GOP gerrymandering in 2000, there are many CD's that stretch across county lines, so it will be very difficult to get beyond a rough estimate of the delegate breakdown based on the results tomorrow night.

Jay Cost has a post on the likeness of Ohio and Penn in the closing days of the campaign poll numbers. You'll notice from the graph he has on his blog, that basically the candidates close out the contests with Clinton upticking and Obama staying even. He did this a few days ago, when it was about 47.5 to 43, in favor of Clinton. For Ohio, that upticked to, the day before the election, a 49 to 43 poll of polls result. Right now, with the ten latest poll results in PA, its upticked for Clinton to a 49.5 to 43 result, nearly exact the final margin for PA (50-43). We'll see what the final day brings tomorrow.

I also looked into the two polls that are showing divergence from all the others, SUSA and PPP. The numbers for PPP, 49-46 in favor of Obama, over a weekend poll, are wildly different, even from SUSA, as for their reasoning. PPP shows a single-digit lead for Clinton among women and older voters. That alone skews everything else. There's nothing in external events to explain such a movement, and none of the other polls pick it up. Since not even SUSA shows this movement, I hope for PPP's sake that they are doing some final polling today to save some of their credibility. Without PPP, the final poll of polls result would be 49.9 to 42.2, a 7.7 lead by Clinton with 7.7 remaining.

SUSA's movement seems more plausible, because it resonates with the issues that have been brought up recently. I would dub it the 'reverse cling' voter reaction. It's nearly all happened in the southeast Philadelphia region. They are white and black men, predominantly 18-34, but also 35 to 45. Liberal, they are not church goers. However, they are not college graduates either. I wouldn't be surprised if they were mostly single too. Now, this group is what comprises the movement away from Clinton and toward Obama in the poll to poll shift of a 54-40 lead by Clinton to a 50-44 lead. I suspect this group is also not usually a participant in the primary system, so counting on their vote might be dubious (also note that SUSA has a gender turnout gap that shows a M-F 45-55 split instead of the norm 40-60 that has been happening). It's a very interesting shift, if correct, that SUSA points toward having happened. Not surprisingly, Clinton winds up her campaign in Philadelphia for a last minute appeal. We'll see how crazy it is at the poll booths tomorrow for an indication of turnout.

Update [2008-4-21 22:8:21 by Jerome Armstrong]: Terence Samuel sees this Philly electorate as the key that will swing PA to Obama's column, Why Obama Will Win Pennsylvania, predicting Obama by a point and a half.

Update [2008-4-22 6:21:19 by Jerome Armstrong]: Duh. This demographic above is the Jay-Z' Obama vote!

Tags: Pennsylvania Primary (all tags)

Comments

63 Comments

Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I think Obama wil win by one point.  PPP nailed WI, SC,TX, and OH.

What do you say about that Jerome?

by regina1983 2008-04-21 06:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

i don't know what Jerome says, but I say that after tomorrow PPP will stand for Piss Poor Poll.

by pollbuster 2008-04-21 06:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

It's funny even Obama doesn't think he will win Pa., but you do. Maybe his message of hope has gotten thru to his supporters a lot better than it's gotten thru to him.

by pollbuster 2008-04-21 06:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

It's called managing expectations. And since this is the first time Obama has done it, it shows his campaign is learning how to play that game.

by dback 2008-04-21 07:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Or it shows he thinks his situation in Pa. is hopeless, which is strange for the candidate of hope.

by pollbuster 2008-04-21 07:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I don't think the "hope" candidate is the one doing the hoping right now.

by alex100 2008-04-21 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

If you tell yourself that enough times, you may come to believe it.

by dback 2008-04-21 09:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

*will

by regina1983 2008-04-21 06:03PM | 0 recs
re

If Obama wins PA I will endorse him and I am one of the biggest Hillary backers I know.

by rossinatl 2008-04-21 06:09PM | 0 recs
Re: re

if obama wins PA I'll endorse Hillary and I'm not even sure I like her anymore.

by alex100 2008-04-21 08:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Clinton by 10-12.  I have less faith in that range today than I did yesterday, but not enough to budge.

by rfahey22 2008-04-21 06:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I'll say Clinton by 7.

by BlueinColorado 2008-04-21 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I'd drink to that.

by rfahey22 2008-04-21 06:47PM | 0 recs
Jerome

Tad Devine as an article predicting an Obama win due to voter's wanting the primary to end.  I'd link to it but it goes against my policy of linking to right wing sources (not Tad Devine, but a Wall Street Journal blog).

by Student Guy 2008-04-21 06:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome

I think that's happening with some voters, but nobody knows how many.

by elrod 2008-04-21 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I don't know how how reliable IA is. PPP has been very strong in TX, WI, OH and it got SC closest.

Turnout is key, of course. None of the polls have really picked up a huge movement of undecideds that happened in the last days before TX and OH. Remember, Clinton picked up about 5-8 points in the last four days before March 4. Even national polling showed a drop for Obama on the heels of the NAFTA BS and the 3AM ad. But nothing of the sort has happened for PA. Zogby had a Sunday afternoon polling showing a Clinton swing after a big Obama swing on Saturday, so who knows if there are any trends there. And SUSA has shown major movement to Obama the last - probably as you say among white men in SE PA.

I say Clinton wins by 7 tomorrow as she racks up major wins in Scranton and in SW PA. But the delegate pickup will be marginal and the popular vote lead will be under 100,000.

by elrod 2008-04-21 06:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I keep thinking of Ohio.  I don't think it is realistic to see Obama as winning PA by any margin, it just doesn't intuitively make sense.  Most of the polls would indicate a decent win by Clinton; not what she needs by any means, 8-10, but enough to keep her in for a short while.  

Obama is doing well nationally, his fundraising is superb, his campaign makes hers look like(pardon the pun) a Keystone cops operation.  He is  great candidate who will make a wonderful president, but much as I would like to believe the opposite, tomorrow is not what is going to do it.  

by mady 2008-04-21 06:23PM | 0 recs
redistricting

actually, the redistricting happened in 2001.

by Scott in NJ 2008-04-21 06:15PM | 0 recs
This is odd, though...

PPP seems like the outlier obviously, but they sampled women by a 58-42 margin, which seems about right.

Biggest gain in that one for Obama is in SE PA, where they have him up 58-32, accounting for 45% of the vote total (which is generally in line with PA primary history from what I'm told). I don't believe he gets a 20 point win in all of SE PA, and surely Clinton will win SW bigger than 13 pts....over 10% undecided before leaners, though.....

by SuperTex 2008-04-21 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: This is odd, though...

Be careful about the sampling numbers of women. Do we know how many of them are black women? By increasing the number of black women, you raise Obama's numbers, while still looking like you have a true sample. I don't know if they've done that, but I suspect they have.

by pollbuster 2008-04-21 06:34PM | 0 recs
Well -

Black women count just as much as white women do, last I heard, but according to the PPP x-tabs, black voters accounted for 18% of the total respondents, which also seems about right, no?

I think the inflation of Obama's #s in this poll comes from an oversample of SE PA (perhaps an oversample of black voters THERE)and a skewed sample from SW PA, if anything, but it's not an oversample of black voters of any sex, overall, as far as I can tell. But they did poll over 2200 voters, with an MOE of 2%.

FTR, I still think this is a 10 pt win for HRC.

by SuperTex 2008-04-22 07:33AM | 0 recs
SUSA is not unusual

Why do you say that SUSA is different from the others?

It is +6 for Clinton while the realclearpolitics poll of polls is +5.9 for Clinton.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html

by politicsmatters 2008-04-21 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Pennsylvania has 67 beautiful, interesting and unique counties. I'm working on the PA statewide treasurers race, and my territory for that race includes the following counties for which I will make my best (guesses) predictions.These counties make up the southern part of the famous Pennsylvania "T" and are not the most populous of PA counties, but will still see large turnouts for their candidates. I'd love to give you some analysis, but it's getting late and I need to be in York early tomorrow morning.

Adams: Clinton
Cumberland: Clinton
Dauphin: Obama
Franklin: Obama
Juniata: Obama
Lancaster: Clinton
Lebanon: Obama
Mifflin: Clinton
Perry: Clinton
Schuylkill: Clinton
Snyder: Clinton
Union:Obama
York: Obama

by dannybauder 2008-04-21 06:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Ah, convince me to vote for your candidate then.  I'm fairly happy about my choices for downticket races, but I'm up in the air over treasurer.  I initially leaned toward Jennifer Mann based on a little blurb I read on her, but then Rob McCord's ad tonight swayed me toward him.  I'm still truly undecided and am looking for a good reason to pick one of the four (I don't know much about Cordisco or Morrison-Wesley).  So this is your chance to convince an undecided voter.  One good point will probably do it.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-21 07:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Well, I work for John Cordisco, who as Bucks County Dem Chair was instrumental in electing Patrick Murphy the first Iraq War Veteran to congress.

John was first called to public service at age 21, while he was putting food on his family's table as an IBEW brother. While he was working full time in the mill, and working hard on school board, he was working his way through college. John ran successfully for the state house in 1980, and worked to establish a commission to expand medical care to Vietnam Veterans exposed Agent Orange. While in the state house, John studied for his J.D. at Temple, and left the house in 1986 to pursue private practice.

John's practice has been very successful, and has lead to many opportunities including sitting on the board of Team Capital Bank, which is the fastest growing bank of its kind.

John has the right kind of public / private sector experience to be our treasurer.

I'd like to encourage you to check out our website and make sure you read the "Cordisco Pledge." It's what really shows the difference between John and our opponents.

www.cordiscofortreasurer.com

by dannybauder 2008-04-21 08:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Ok, will do a little later today before I vote.  Thanks for the info.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-22 03:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I don't see anyway Obama wins PA.  My pipe dream is that he gets within 5, hoping for 6, expecting 8, will accept 10.

by thezzyzx 2008-04-21 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Obama has pretty reliably been around 43-45 percent. It is hard to believe that the 45% ceiling translates into a win tomorrow. If he even comes close with polling like this it is a tremendous upset and any sane betting man would lose lots of money on that.

As much as I want the circular firing squad to stop shooting, tomorrow is not the end.

by Nindid 2008-04-21 06:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

A 45% ceiling does mean it's quite likely he gets within 8 or so though.

by thezzyzx 2008-04-21 06:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I think you used the wrong SUSA numbers

by CardBoard 2008-04-21 06:43PM | 0 recs
What a race.

Clinton by 20 and lets put the rest the lie to rest that Obama is a new kind of politician using a new kind of politics.

His negative attacks proved it but was shocked Jack Cafferty admitted.

Millions of Americans got a reality check on Obama.

There is no way a Dem can win the general without going negative.

So, if he does win, he needs to change that message.

by gotalife 2008-04-21 06:45PM | 0 recs
Re: What a race.

Lotsa Hillary folks think 20.  Not happening.  8-10 points.  

I also like the "if he wins, he needs to change the way he's campaigning, because its not the way to win" conclusion.  That's good stuff.  

by bosdcla14 2008-04-21 06:53PM | 0 recs
Re: What a race.

The way he has gone negative, he has to change his message.

But then again, this country elected w twice so he might stay with it.

Of course, nothing his does will detour his supporters.

by gotalife 2008-04-21 07:14PM | 0 recs
Re: What a race.

Yeah, we're pretty out of touch with reality.  Like when you predicted Hillary would win by 20 and I said 8-10.  What was I thinking, right?  

by bosdcla14 2008-04-22 10:13PM | 0 recs
Re: What a race.

Oh, and "the way he has gone negative."  Puh-leeze.  At the last debate, she brought up Louis Farakkhan herself without the moderators needing to mention it.  

Pointing out the campaign she's run is not a negative attack.  

by bosdcla14 2008-04-22 10:14PM | 0 recs
Re: What a race.

SO if its under 20 is that a win for the Big O?

by gil44 2008-04-21 08:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Oops,

Lets put the lie to rest that Obama is a new kind of politician using a new kind of politics.

Freaking Crown.

by gotalife 2008-04-21 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Dude, you come along and just fart all over the thread. Folks on both sides are trying to have a civil discussion and you just can't handle it.  Give it a rest already.  

Let's see. Clinton by 20.  OK. Got it. No need to keep going on like a 12 year old.

by swarty 2008-04-21 09:53PM | 0 recs
Clinton by 14

I'm sticking to my 57-43 prediction.

Obama has consistently been in the 39-43 range, Clinton in the 47-52 range.

I say the undecideds come home to Clinton, giving her the 14 point spread.

She gains about 200K in the popular vote.

by njsketch 2008-04-21 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

As much as I'd like to see the O-man win Pennsylvania, that's a little too much hope for me to swallow.

People are greatly underestimating Clinton's GOTV effort in western and central PA.  She has various allies helping her with those efforts and they are pros (Unions + EMILY'S List).  Looking at Ohio, it seemed like her ground game really came together toward the end and helped reduce Obama's new voter impact.

I'm estimating a Clinton victory of 10 points, +/- 2 points depending on how things play.

by Homebrewer 2008-04-21 06:49PM | 0 recs
i lowered my

prediction from a 14% win to a 12% win.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-21 06:58PM | 0 recs
Zogby

Zogby's last poll says Hillary is up by 10 in the 2-day sample: 51-41. But Zogby already said that Hillary was up 53-38 in Sunday's one-day polling.  So does that mean Hillary was only up 5 in Monday's polling? The rolling average is two days, so it seems Obama did much better in Monday's sample than he did in Sunday's. Of course he did even better in Saturday's sample when he took a brief lead.

Or maybe Zogby is just crap.

by elrod 2008-04-21 07:05PM | 0 recs
The 39% mark is telling for Obama

60-40 split for Clinton.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-04-21 07:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Call me clueless, but I don't know this Terance Samuel guy.  He's wrong, however.  Obama hasn't been able to get above 43 in any poll recently.  He's stuck.  Hillary has a live rally in Philly on CSPAN, now.  Huge, boistrous crowd. Obama will win Philly, but she has way more supporters there than the media has let on.

by Scotch 2008-04-21 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

He got 49 in the PPP poll.

by elrod 2008-04-21 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I think PPP is a little screwy. Can't take it seriously anymore than I can ARG.  But okay, maybe one poll.

by Scotch 2008-04-21 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

PPP nailed TX, OH, WI and SC.  They might have PA wrong, but they aren't monkeys with darts.

by elrod 2008-04-21 07:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Well, I should hope not.  That would be quite a scandal if that was discovered.  

by Scotch 2008-04-21 07:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Although, really, this election cycle might benefit from some monkeys with darts.

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-21 07:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling
Clinton by 20.
All the recent polls are just noise.
by poserM 2008-04-21 07:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

55-45 Clinton.

by SuperTex 2008-04-21 07:34PM | 0 recs
Top counties

Polled last Thursday, but botched the coding for demographics on some of Obama's supporters, so I couldn't release the full numbers. Here's the raw results by county for the counties that I got the most responses from. Raw, not weighted, use at your own risk, not a prediction, don't run with scissors, sorry about the formatting.

County  Clinton  Obama  Undecided
PHILADELPHIA  0.37  0.56  0.07
ALLEGHENY  0.42  0.49  0.09
MONTGOMERY  0.52  0.39  0.09
BUCKS  0.54  0.35  0.11
DELAWARE  0.36  0.61  0.02
YORK  0.51  0.40  0.09
LACKAWANNA  0.68  0.26  0.05
WESTMORELAND  0.50  0.29  0.21
LUZERNE  0.62  0.35  0.03
CHESTER  0.55  0.39  0.06
BEAVER  0.40  0.53  0.07

by IVR Polls 2008-04-21 07:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Top counties

Interesting, but some don't make sense. No way Obama wins Beaver County. And no way he wins Delaware County by 15 but loses Montgomery County by 13 and Bucks by 19.  I also think he wins York but loses Allegheny, and wins Philadelphia by a lot more than 19.

by elrod 2008-04-21 07:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Top counties

Yeah, it's just raw data that I can't actually use, so I thought I'd put it out there for the people arguing about polls late at night. These are all smaller samples - total poll was 1100 for 67 counties - and not corrected for demographics, so any one county may be out of balance.

by IVR Polls 2008-04-21 07:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Top counties

You may be surprised by DelCo. Much of Clinton's "base" here, that is the white working class, are registered Republicans who vote Democratic in federal and statewide races. Obama will run strong in the heavily black towns like Chester, Colwyn, Darby and Yeadon, and he'll also do very well in the wealthier white suburbs and college towns. While I don't think Obama will run better here than in Philly, he could easily break 60 in DelCo.

by Scott in NJ 2008-04-22 01:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Top counties

and you can BITE me too with your troll BS

by JHL 2008-04-22 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

What is the point of over analyzing and living and dying by the polls?  It seems like blog-filler to me.

by KensUSA 2008-04-21 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

More like political-geek-filler, I'd say.

by kyle in philly 2008-04-21 07:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

Zogby released his last poll - Hillary is up by 10 points and has gained in the last few days:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?I D=1487

If Zogby is correct it looks like she could win by 10-12 tomorrow

by sunnyaz08 2008-04-21 08:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

I sense closer than expected, a Hillary win but mid single digits, primarily due to the settled perspective of the race compared to early March in Ohio and Texas, when it was less obvious to Hillary supporters that the math didn't work for her. At that point there was still outside hope of re-votes in Florida and Michigan. My instinct is some weariness of the extended campaign, and signs that Obama has not fared well while under scrutiny, will actually improve his fortunes in Pennsylvania, undecided voters giving him the benefit of a doubt.

I bet Hillary heavily in Ohio at barely worse than 50/50. Now the damn Intrade tariff in Pennsylvania is roughly 90/10. It never dropped to my Go price of 60/40. I'd be surprised if she managed her Ohio margin.

This is what busts me up, the desperate rationale that Hillary needs to beat the spread, garbage like Chris Matthews claiming the over/under is 8 and anything less than that will be comparitive failure. That must sound really clever to the brain cells, when they dream up something like that. Now fast forward to what a 3 or 4 or 5 point, or similar, Hillary win would look like:

+++ Victory speech by one candidate alone, smiles and celebration in the background for a half hour, covered by all the cable networks, and guaranteed the superior speech of the two, based on confidence and atmosphere

+++ Relatively short concession speech by Obama, less smiles and zest than normal, deflated room

+++ Margin of victory flashed on the screen all night, gap of tens of thousands of votes if not more, alongside the percentages

+++ Pundits re-visiting the theme that Obama can't win the major states, or put Hillary away, and what that signifies toward November, if anything

+++ Newspaper headlines across the country atop page one, trumpeting a Hillary win.

Yes, there would be rightful focus on the delegate apportionment, barely cutting into Obama's margin. But that's primarily a specialist's topic, something that will be front and center here and elsewhere on the internet, but initial media reports are aimed to the masses and the bottom line of a Hillary win dominates the news. That would be the taxi cab and water cooler highlight on Wednesday.

If Obama wins, absolutely it's over. But anyone who pretends a Hillary triumph will be downplayed or dismissed based on margin has a fuzzy vision of  reality. Pennsylvania is roughly a +4 blue state in general election terms. And that means we basically take it for granted, no thought of failure unless our candidate is facing a national landslide. Yet in the primary we're desperate to imply a similar 4 point win would be spun as a loss? Please.

And it's also amusing when Obama supporters cling to the old 20+ deficit, asserting that's the true barometer, and it's amazing he's done so well. The Obama internal memo from a couple of months ago projected a 52-47 defeat. An isolated spot on the calendar with laser focus for 6 weeks and millions of bucks for 6 weeks was never a true 20 point hole, not even close, at least on this planet.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-04-21 09:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

anyone who pretends a Hillary triumph will be downplayed or dismissed based on margin has a fuzzy vision of  reality.

Have you looked around at your neighbors here and in your community!?@#

Obama supporters cling to the old 20+ deficit

As I've pointed out at least a dozen times, she was ahead 10 points in February based on an average of 5 polls conducted during that month.  So, I understand your frustration with the partisians.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 10:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

You make some good points, but I think the media is about done with her if she doesn't win big, and much of your spec is based on them skewing to big love for HRC even with a 5 point win. The problem here is that the shelf life on this campaign is about up, thus the marketing advantage to keeping her alive is also diminishing.  If I'm Obama's top chefs, I'm not 'happy' with losing by any margin, but considering where he started and the demographics he was looking at, I'll take a de facto stalemate at this point and 47% definitely qualifies.  A few days of HC crowing and strutting and a ~3-5 pt bump, and things will revert back to equilibrium , at 50-40 Obama, with the gap creeping wider again. NC is a blowout and Indiana likely a push or close win for him. It'd be nice if she didn't push it to what will likely be ugly Obama losses in KY and WV, but nothing there will help he make up significant ground either.

Also, predicting general results based on this primary is still a meme for the dumb. The dynamics are completely different, as we all know - e.g., some polls show Obama running stronger than HC vs McCain in Cali, and she beat him by 9 points there.

by SuperTex 2008-04-22 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Penn poll wrap-up (SUSA, PPP) Reverse Cling

+++ Victory speech by one candidate alone, smiles and celebration in the background for a half hour, covered by all the cable networks, and guaranteed the superior speech of the two, based on confidence and atmosphere

+++ Relatively short concession speech by Obama, less smiles and zest than normal, deflated room

Um I agree most of your post but these to points a highly debatable, I mean does anyone even remeber Hillarys speech post-NH? Obama on the other hand gave the Yes We Can! Speech which was one of the most memorable of the whole campaign.

by Socraticsilence 2008-04-22 02:33AM | 0 recs

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