Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread
by Todd Beeton, Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 08:14:49 AM EDT
Interesting stuff. Most polls agree the race is in the 6 or 7 point range. Hell, even Zogby and Survey USA are in agreement, strange bedfellows to be sure.
|Candidate||Rasmussen 4/20 (4/17)||Zogby 4/19-20 (4/18-19)||Suffolk U 4/19-20||PPP 4/19-20 (4/14-15)||Strategic Vision 4/18-20 (4/11-13)||Quinnipiac U 4/18-20 (4/9-13)||Survey USA 4/18-20) (4/12-14)||RCP 8-poll Ave.|
|Clinton||49 (47)||48 (46)||52||46 (42)||48 (49)||51 (50)||50 (54)||49|
|Obama||44 (44)||42 (43)||42||49 (45)||41 (40)||44 (44)||44 (40)||43.6|
Even though most polls seem to have come to a consensus (ignoring for a moment PPP and Suffolk), what makes a final prediction difficult here is the lack of agreement on the question of who has the momentum. Notice that Zogby and Rasmussen have Clinton gaining while SUSA and Strategic Vision indicate that Obama is. It shouldn't go unnoticed, however, that the polls showing Clinton gaining are more recent by a hair and the only tracking poll in the state is among them, which, even though it is Zogby, tells me that undecideds are breaking late for Clinton as they have in other Clinton country states.
This conclusion is somewhat contradicted by an interesting switch in methodology on the part of PPP this time. Note that their latest poll has both Obama and Clinton gaining 4 points since their last one. This should not be seen as undecideds suddenly figuring out their preference in the closing days, however. As Tom Jensen explains on the PPP blog:
Basically most polls show Obama's percentage within a small range but Clinton's number is all over the place- greater in polls with small undecideds, worse in polls with larger undecideds. This could be an indication that leaners are going for Clinton, but we don't really prod them to pick one of the two candidates whereas other companies might do more of that. That could help explain why Obama is doing so much better with us than in other polls.
Before prodding leaners, the result was Obama by 4 points with 10% undecided; after leaners, Obama by 3% with 5% still undecided. In other words, undecideds in their turnout model broke for Clinton and Obama essentially equally. But considering PPP has been the only poll to ever have Obama up, I question their model, despite a pretty good track record this cycle. Rather, according to Zogby, in the last 24 hours undecideds have dropped by 2% and Clinton has gained 2% (while Obama has lost 1%.) I suspect this is more in keeping with reality. My prediction: Clinton by 8%.
What do you think?