Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Interesting stuff. Most polls agree the race is in the 6 or 7 point range. Hell, even Zogby and Survey USA are in agreement, strange bedfellows to be sure.

CandidateRasmussen 4/20 (4/17)Zogby 4/19-20 (4/18-19)Suffolk U 4/19-20PPP 4/19-20 (4/14-15)Strategic Vision 4/18-20 (4/11-13)Quinnipiac U 4/18-20 (4/9-13)Survey USA 4/18-20) (4/12-14)RCP 8-poll Ave.
Clinton49 (47)48 (46)5246 (42)48 (49)51 (50)50 (54)49
Obama44 (44)42 (43)4249 (45)41 (40)44 (44)44 (40)43.6

Even though most polls seem to have come to a consensus (ignoring for a moment PPP and Suffolk), what makes a final prediction difficult here is the lack of agreement on the question of who has the momentum. Notice that Zogby and Rasmussen have Clinton gaining while SUSA and Strategic Vision indicate that Obama is. It shouldn't go unnoticed, however, that the polls showing Clinton gaining are more recent by a hair and the only tracking poll in the state is among them, which, even though it is Zogby, tells me that undecideds are breaking late for Clinton as they have in other Clinton country states.

This conclusion is somewhat contradicted by an interesting switch in methodology on the part of PPP this time. Note that their latest poll has both Obama and Clinton gaining 4 points since their last one. This should not be seen as undecideds suddenly figuring out their preference in the closing days, however. As Tom Jensen explains on the PPP blog:

Basically most polls show Obama's percentage within a small range but Clinton's number is all over the place- greater in polls with small undecideds, worse in polls with larger undecideds. This could be an indication that leaners are going for Clinton, but we don't really prod them to pick one of the two candidates whereas other companies might do more of that. That could help explain why Obama is doing so much better with us than in other polls.

Before prodding leaners, the result was Obama by 4 points with 10% undecided; after leaners, Obama by 3% with 5% still undecided. In other words, undecideds in their turnout model broke for Clinton and Obama essentially equally. But considering PPP has been the only poll to ever have Obama up, I question their model, despite a pretty good track record this cycle. Rather, according to Zogby, in the last 24 hours undecideds have dropped by 2% and Clinton has gained 2% (while Obama has lost 1%.) I suspect this is more in keeping with reality. My prediction: Clinton by 8%.

What do you think?

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, Pennsylvania Primary (all tags)

Comments

151 Comments

Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Clinton by 9 percent.  

by LarsThorwald 2008-04-21 08:16AM | 0 recs
C54 - O44

I agree with what Matt Stoller said just before "mini" super Tuesday:

I have no idea what is going to happen, but my general rule of thumb is that the most annoying scenario is also the most likely scenario

By that, I predict Clinton will win about +10 (say 54C - 44O).  Enough to get a moral victory, but not even close enough to start eating away at Obama's pledged delegate lead.  Therefore, this prolonged argument about who's the most "electable" continues at least into June.

by maddogg 2008-04-21 08:17AM | 0 recs
pledged delegate are so

last year.

She is ahead in popular vote now and yes I am counting MI, those are people too.  If Obama has not blocked a recount they would vote for her again as would Florida.
Obama can chose to disenfranchise FL and MI, but I refuse to do so.

by TeresaInPa 2008-04-23 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I think..  Obama got off message discipline with the "this race will be closer than many people expect."  Not very good at setting expectations.

I still just have a gut feeling it's going to be Clinton by 10-12.  Most polling shows around a 8-9% lead, but I think she's going to pull out a couple extra points come tomorrow.

by jturn17 2008-04-21 08:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

"What do you think?"

It doesn't matter what the numbers are.  Unless Obama kicks a puppy, the math ain't working for Hillary in the long run, especially with North Carolina and Indiana breaking for Obama before he's even had a chance to saturate those markets with Ads and feel good whistle stop speeches.

by MuddyWaters 2008-04-21 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Obama kicked a puppy?  Omigosh, that is way worse then flipping HRC the bird.  /snark

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-04-21 08:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

We really need to ask the Obama campaign about his puppy kicking fetish. The Republicans certainly will.

My prediction - Clinton by 10.

by mhojo 2008-04-21 10:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Obama doesn't kick puppies.  A former acquaintence does.  And Obama still hasn't accounted for why he ever met this person.  Is that what we want in a president?

Polls say 49-43 C.  If undecideds break 5-3 for her, that's an 8 point win.  However, I think the sampling error (the quoted margin of error based on sample size) is now less important than the model error -- have they correctly predicted who will turn out to vote, and thus drawn their sample from the appropriate population?

by lilnev 2008-04-21 11:05AM | 0 recs
Now that is the mystery.

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

by GFORD 2008-04-21 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

She is going to do better than she did in Ohio.

by darlene25 2008-04-21 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

The agreement on a narrow Clinton victory can mean only one thing:

A 40 point landslide by either Obama or Clinton!

Any idea on how they are predicting turnout?

by gil44 2008-04-21 08:22AM | 0 recs
8-10 Clinton

No real change in the delegate count.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-21 08:23AM | 0 recs
yes change in the delegate count

and even bigger change in the popular vote count which she now owns.

by TeresaInPa 2008-04-23 06:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I question PPP weighting SE PA as 45% of the statewide DEM turnout. I think it should be under 40%.

by SurfCityDEM4Life 2008-04-21 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

SUSA weighted it at 43%, so PPP is right in line with the gold standard of polls.

by jeepdad 2008-04-21 11:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Clinton by 10-12, though it's interesting that Rendell and certain other Clinton staffers have been making comments about being happy with a wint of about 5 points.  When you pair that with Obama's comments, it suggests that the internal polls are fairly tight.

by rfahey22 2008-04-21 08:25AM | 0 recs
Clinton by double digits. Easily.

I'm not going to disappoint myself with the Expectations Game.

by bjones 2008-04-21 08:26AM | 0 recs
I buy the PPP poll I dug into it a bit

I posted this at the field (I could win a shot and a beer!)

However the democratic machine and Operation Chaos will switch the result.

Clinton 52.3%
Obama 47.2%
Other .5%

Yeah.

by Student Guy 2008-04-21 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I also feel that it will be in the 8-10 point range for Clinton, though I think that this will end up being a satisfactory outcome for Obama, and one that will ultimately place him closer to securing the nomination.

by wasder 2008-04-21 08:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

One interesting tidbit: will the negative turn of the campaign convince these undecided voters to just stay home? Most of these undecideds probably dislike both candidates. More are in the T than in Philly or Pittsburgh. And more are conservative. If they stay home and Obama gets high turnout in Philly, he could win.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/i ts-turnout-stupid.html

That said, I think she wins by 7. It'll be 53-46-1 and she picks up 12 delegates, 85-73.

by elrod 2008-04-21 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

8 points feels right to me and as an Obama supporter I'll take that in a second.

by thezzyzx 2008-04-21 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

So all that is important to you is the nomination and not the GE? I have no doubt that he would get the nomination  but have evry doubt that he could win the GE!

by indydem99 2008-04-21 08:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

If Obama lost PA by 20+ points, that would be something to worry about in the general.  8 points just means that Clinton is liked more there but Obama is also considered to be a strong candidate.  Sounds good to me.

by thezzyzx 2008-04-21 08:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

May be you should read this. History repeats itself.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1972D emocraticPresidentialPrimaries.gif

by indydem99 2008-04-21 10:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Stop with 2008 being compared to past elections.  There is NOTHING comparable.  Look at Dem turnout!  Look at youth turnout!  Look at minority turnout (black and hispanic)!  That is the problem with Hillary's campaign.  Her stupid advisors (and her, because she picked them), are stuck back in the old  days.  These are not the old days. These are brand new days with unpredictable trends.

I am a Hillary supporter, but am I ever disappointed in her campaign strategy.  I wish she had employed Obama's tactics-- she'd have won hands down 2 months ago.  That said, when she does lose (and I am a realist, I understand delegate math)I will whole heartedly support Obama.  He does know how to change the paradigm when it comes to politics.  He'd be a great president.

by citizensane 2008-04-21 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

There were lots of young folks like clintons, Gary Hart and Tom Daschle that supported McGovern. The whole anti Vietnam crowd supported him very enthusiastically. He was a WWII war hero though he never made much of it.

We will see what happens. The future is not ours to see.

by indydem99 2008-04-21 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I have to say that the historical comparison between 1972 and 2008 are almost nonexistant other than there being a democrat, a republican, and a war.  

by Headlight 2008-04-21 06:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Clinton 53
Obama 46
Other 1

High turnout around 2 million. Clinton nets less than 200,000 votes and just a handful of delegates.

by jbill 2008-04-21 08:31AM | 0 recs
Late breakers

Note that all TX and OH polls showed sizable late movement to Clinton. Only NH showed late movement not picked up by pollsters. Since the late polling is conflicted on late movement, it's very possible that the undecideds will stay home and not go to Clinton.

by elrod 2008-04-21 08:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I think it will be fairly close.  I see a 52% - 47% Clinton win with 1% to the widely popular "Other".  I'll also predict about a 35% turnout or roughly 1.4 million votes.  That would give Clinton about a 70,000 vote popular vote advantage (730,000 to 660,000).  Due to the close popular vote, the delegate spreads in some of Clinton's strongholds will break 3-2 for her instead of 4-1 which will lead to a +7 in delegates (84 - 77).

by minvis 2008-04-21 08:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I expect a couple-point late break for Clinton, putting her up about 9-10 points.

If Obama can keep it to single digits, I think he will have done well.  Anything over 10 and the media will spin it as a win for Clinton.  Anything over 15 is pretty disastrous for Obama in the media.

Of course, it's all moot because even a 15-point Clinton win will pretty much leave the popular vote out of range for her, and won't move the pledge delegates much at all.

by ChrisKaty 2008-04-21 08:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

This is pretty close to right.  Obama will, I think, hold it to single digits.  But even if it's 15% the downside for him isn't that he is any risk of losing the nomination -- it's just that Clinton will continue to be around driving up his negatives.  

There are two questions:  first, will the Clinton margin be enough to influence the NC and Indiana votes.  Even at 15% I think that the impact is marginal at best.  Second, who will have moved their margin in pledged delegates after PA, NC and IN have all voted.  I think it's likely that the delegate margins will not have changed much -- up or down +/-10.  

by Headlight 2008-04-21 06:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I agree, last minute breaks for Clinton, she wins by between 12-14.

But, what will be interesting is, how many Supers declare before NC and IN?

Clinton will have, as of Wed morning, put all her cards on the table:

1. Only she can win the big blue states

2. White voters have moved away from Obama

3. Only she can compete with McCain?

So, I figure, the national polls move her out ahead by 3-5 points, maybe even 7?

Then, the Supers come out for her, right?

What else CAN she throw down, she is going to lose NC, probably IN?

WHEN will she get those supers to move?

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

So let us not talk falsely, the hour is getting late.

Hillary by 12, picking up not nearly enough delegates to make any kind of difference.

As for Hillary's winning all the "big blue" states, that bears absolutely no relation whatsoever to Obama's ability to compete in them vs. McCain.

by vermontprog 2008-04-21 12:25PM | 0 recs
Polls

I think the turn out in Philly will be off the charts while the negative ads will keep turn out down in the T.  The suburban counties in Philly will put a dent into her lead.

HRC 51
Obama 48
Other 1

by cspanjunkie 2008-04-21 08:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Drudge has allegedly obtained Clinton internals pegging the margin at 11 points.

Ah, the Clinton-Drudge connection...

by rfahey22 2008-04-21 08:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

If Drudge says it, it has to be true.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 12:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I do not believe so. Supers are prepared to throw this GE in order to please Obama supporters.

by indydem99 2008-04-21 08:43AM | 0 recs
If they were willing to do that...

They'd have already done so.

The supers go by their own deciding process.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-21 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: If they were willing to do that...

They are politicians and as such have little integrity. They are jut putting up a show.

by indydem99 2008-04-21 08:52AM | 0 recs
Debatable, but you have a point

They have a vested interest in going with the popular result, of course; it might look really bad for them if they had no vote-based rationale at all if they go against the pledged count this late in the game (to be honest, I don't think early-swinging superdelegates should be bound by the same factors; they have to then deal with loyalty and judgement issues).

by Dracomicron 2008-04-21 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Debatable, but you have a point

In order to fully appreciate the Super Delegate role you should see this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1972D emocraticPresidentialPrimaries.gif

by indydem99 2008-04-21 09:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Debatable, but you have a point

do you mean in the sense that George Wallace won Florida, Michigan and Tennessee?  I'm guessing that's not what you meant.

by the mollusk 2008-04-21 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Debatable, but you have a point
No. McGovern amassed a huge number of delegates in meaningless states and got the nomination but ended up losing in a landslide to Nixon. That is what prompted Democrats to create Super delegates.
They should modify the system to winner take all and eliminate super delegates.
by indydem99 2008-04-21 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Debatable, but you have a point

California, New York, Texas, Georgia.  These were "meaningless" states?

What, exactly, does a state have to do to be "meaningful"?

by the mollusk 2008-04-21 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Debatable, but you have a point

He did not win CA, NY and Texas. He is not going to win Texas and Georgia in GE and might lose CA because the latinos migh bolt.

by indydem99 2008-04-21 01:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Debatable, but you have a point

uh, I was still talking about McGovern.  Guess I should've made that clearer.

by the mollusk 2008-04-21 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Debatable, but you have a point

That is another story. McGovern only got 17 electrol college votes and only won MA and DC though he won 1865 delegates in the primaries.

Here is the link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat es_presidential_election%2C_1972

by indydem99 2008-04-21 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Are you making excuses for failure before it's even happened?  

by MuddyWaters 2008-04-21 09:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

History repeats itself. May be you should see this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1972D emocraticPresidentialPrimaries.gif

by indydem99 2008-04-21 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Could you be a little more... oh whats the word you guys hate so much...oh yeah....

bitter.

by JDF 2008-04-21 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I can never see an Obambot having a serious discussion based on facts. They resort to either name calling or trivialising.

by indydem99 2008-04-21 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

You are one to talk about facts. You throw out random asinine comments with little to no meaning and your only defense for them is essentially "I support Clinton and you don't so you must be stoopid."

by JDF 2008-04-21 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I'm sorry, posting a wikipedia map of an election 36 years ago over and over again does not constitute a discussion based on facts.  It represents a failure to recognize that the circumstances between the two times has changed.  

by Headlight 2008-04-21 06:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I say HRC wins by approximately 100%.  Anything less will be a signifcant blow, since she was originally expected to win by 130 points.  

Seriously, I have no idea.  She could easily win be 13, but if everything breaks right I could imagine Obama winning by a point or two.  I put the over/under at 10.

by HSTruman 2008-04-21 08:44AM | 0 recs
8% Clinton sounds right

The way the Clinton camp has been lowering expectations (last I heard they were considering 4% an overwhelming victory), it will probably end up being around 8%.  It's been a rough couple weeks for Obama, but he's still finishing comparatively strong.

Anything under double digits is a huge win at this point, and the delegate count won't really change at all.

All this talk about a "knock out punch" is mostly agenda PR.  Obama is an incredibly strong candidate, but Clinton is also incredibly formidable, with demographics on her side.

None of this really means anything definable with regard to the numbers in the fall.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-21 08:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

So all Obama has to do on the "electability" front is say that if he isn't the nominee, he will rally the African American community against Clinton and that, therefore, she will be unelectable.

Not that I think Obama would do this.  But if the superdelegates actually do override the will of the people, do they really think their choice will be electable come November?

by kaleidescope 2008-04-21 08:47AM | 0 recs
Heh

I think it's fair to say that Obama will work his behind off campaigning for Clinton with the black voters if she's the nominee.

He wants a Democrat in the White House bad.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-21 09:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Speaking as an AA person, the community will do this on our (their) own without any help from Obama.  Every single family member of mine will take a Clinton victory as a slap in the face to blacks, and sit out November.  This is what the SD's fear.

I hate that it has come to this...

by jarhead5536 2008-04-21 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I really hope it hasn't. A Clinton victory will not be a slap in the face to blacks, if it happens then she will most likely have won the popular vote and be the rightful nominee.

by liberalj 2008-04-21 09:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

What I am saying is purely anecdotal, but the black people I know personally have decided that Obama and ONLY Obama will be acceptable, delegates, popular vote, whatever, be damned.  He is a symbol of long sought justice, and his defeat will not be taken well at all (another example of "the white man"  keeping a brother down).  These folks are my relatives, generally lower middle class, no college education, rural or inner city dwellers.  It's very difficult to hear sometimes, and I am something of a pariah in my own family for my traitorous position supporting Clinton.

by jarhead5536 2008-04-21 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

"A Clinton victory will not be a slap in the face to blacks, if it happens then she will most likely have won the popular vote and be the rightful nominee."

WHY?

Where in the Democratic Primary Rules does it say ANYTHING about the Popular vote?

This is a complete fiction cooked up and sold by Senator Clinton and her supporters?

How is THAT going to mollify the black democrats THE MOST LOYAL base in the party?

Unlike the white folks in rural PA< THEY never drifted to Reagan?

Now, with some FICTION of the popular vote being the true metric, after Obama leads in the REAL METRIC, DELEGATES, that is going to mollify them?

No, If Hillary wins that way, kiss off the black vote for a generation....

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Where do i say anything about it being in the rules about the popular vote?

What is in the rules is that the supers can vote for whoever they want, my argument about the popular vote is for them. I believe that if Clinton wins the popular vote that should sway the supers, it may not but that doesn't mean its not ok for me to say it.

I've seen loads of Obama supporters talk about the 'will of the people' and how the pledged delegate total represents that, wrong. The supers are supposed to make up their own mind, and if they want to decide on the will of the people they should follow the popular vote not the pledged delegate count.

I refuse to believe that AAs will go to McCain because the black candidate lost. AAs are a loyal part of the Democratic base, but so are many of Clintons supporters.

by liberalj 2008-04-22 06:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

"A Clinton victory will not be a slap in the face to blacks, if it happens then she will most likely have won the popular vote and be the rightful nominee."

Well, actually, no.  The "rightful nominee" by the rules of the Democratic party is the person who wins the most delegates.  The national popular vote doesn't enter into the calculations.  And of course, the "popular vote" you refer to can only occur if two disputed elections, one with no other named politician on the ballot, are counted.  

The whole "popular vote" argument is really just creating a rationale why SDs could legitimately overturn the leader in pledged delegates.  But it would take a lot more than just having a rationale available to get the SDs to dump Obama.  As the poster earlier pointed out -- African Americans will consider it a betrayal if the first African American to win the most pledged delegates is denied the nomination.  While Obama might work to get black voters to still turn out, there's no guarantee that they will.  And if there is depressed AA voter turnout across the country, it could threaten not only the chances to win the White House, but also to retain and expand our congressional majorities.  

What the Superdelegates want is a smooth path from here to election day -- without shocks that could alienate key voting blocks.  The easiest way to achieve that is to gather behind the pledged delegate leader.  Like most politicians, they are keeping their options open as long as they legitimately can, but it will become clear if Obama wins a couple more states that he's a prohibitive favorite.  

by Headlight 2008-04-21 06:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

/why SDs could legitimately overturn the leader in pledged delegates/

This is completely false. If the super delegates were supposed to follow the pledged delegates then why bother having them, it actually makes far more sense for the supers to follow the person who has won the most votes rather than the most pledged delegates.

Even though PA's demographics favor Clinton, Obama has loads more money, he's supposedly the 'presumptive' nominee, he has the press on his side, regular big endorsements. If he cannot close the deal now, the supers should take notice,

by liberalj 2008-04-22 06:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Well, I hate to say this since it regards your family, but that is just as stupid as the women who are taking it as a slap in the face when Obama gets nominated.

by JDF 2008-04-21 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Speaking as a mixed race, half black- as Obama is- I find your position ridiculous.  I do not like either candidate enough to allow them to carry my luggage in the airport, but I'll vote for either of them in a heartbeat.

Grow up.  

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 12:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I think Hillary's margin of victory will be 8 points but the media would spin it as great vitory for the messiah.  

by indydem99 2008-04-21 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

There aren't any deities on the ticket.

by rfahey22 2008-04-21 08:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I think they were talking about Mike Gravel.  He seems a bit otherworldly.

by the mollusk 2008-04-21 10:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

For who?

by Cycloptichorn 2008-04-21 08:53AM | 0 recs
According to Blooomberg, direct quote:

To earn that split decision (to win the popular vote), though, Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon -- a prospect that's not at all certain.

by IowaMike 2008-04-21 08:53AM | 0 recs
Re: According to Blooomberg, direct quote:

The link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=n ewsarchive&sid=a2IYkr2D8ZGk

by IowaMike 2008-04-21 09:02AM | 0 recs
Re: FEINMAN, BUCHANAN says it All!

It will be a Big Clinton win.

Clinton wins by 10%-12%

The MSM message here will be ONE thing.

Rank & File Democrats are NOT sold on Obama.

Feinman & Buchanan already gave us the preview last Friday. They both said,

" If Obama cannot beat Clinton in PA despite outspending her 4 to 1 combined with a much larger ground game, how can you expect to be confident about him in November ? This is the 3rd straight Large State that he has outspent Clinton by 4 to 1 & still lost. ( OHio & Texas)
He has failed to Close any Large State & has relied so much on African-American voters in this primary. In the Fall, African-American voters will be a much smaller piece of the electorate.

If he loses by even 10 points, that means that without African-American voters, he would have easily lost by as much as 20 to 30 points. In the Fall, that can happen.
In the Fall, he won't have a 4 to 1 advantage against McCain. He won't even have a 2 to 1 advantage against McCain. The Republican Party will be able to Go Dollar for Dollar against Obama in the fall. If he loses PA convincingly, this is a VERY DISTURBING TREND."

This resounding victory will be enough to ensure a victory in Indiana in two weeks. It will also make NC much closer than people think.

When you have the Governor & the Mayor of the largest city behind you, that's easily 2%-5% extra.

White working class voters will go heavily for Clinton than any poll is picking-up.

It will be an even stronger performance than Ohio & Texas.

Expect More super Delegates to come out for Clinton after a big win in PA.

Howard Dean's headache will only increase after PA.

Clearly, Millions of Democrats have an issue with Obama as the frontrunner. There is no "Coming Together" in unity among Democrats.

by libdemusa 2008-04-21 08:54AM | 0 recs
Re: FEINMAN, BUCHANAN says it All!

So, Obama would gain 2-5% in the general solely by virtue of the fact that the Democratic establishment in Pennsylvania would be on his side?  Comforting thought.

by rfahey22 2008-04-21 08:57AM | 0 recs
I know!

Rendell has pledged to get his machine out for Obama if he wins, so that goes a long way towards making me more secure in a PA general win.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-21 09:23AM | 0 recs
Re: FEINMAN, BUCHANAN says it All!

"This resounding victory will be enough to ensure a victory in Indiana in two weeks. It will also make NC much closer than people think."

What will you say when Obama wins Indiana?

"Expect More super Delegates to come out for Clinton after a big win in PA."

Ok, maybe YOU will answer this, since NO CLINTON supporter seems to want to do this?

Give me SOME idea of a number? 3-5, 8-10, 20-50?

HOW MANY Supers cross for Hillary, post this 'race changing' victory in PA, as the Clinton supporters are touting it?

SINCE she has made her BEST argument:

1. Only She can win the big blue states

2. Obama has lost the white vote

3. Only SHE is electable in the fall

Then, Supers WILL start to cross for her, in large numbers?

If not then, when?  

Oh, one finally thought?  

Posting Pitchfork Pat as a pundit who really is honest about the Democratic party is probably a risky idea?

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 09:03AM | 0 recs
Correction

Obama won Texas.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-21 09:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I predict a Clinton 8-10 pt win, a 15-20 delegate pickup and either a "Huckary" or Hillabee" nickname by the end of the week.

by chewie5656 2008-04-21 08:58AM | 0 recs
Short of a 60% + win for HRC ...

... there's not going to be much shift in the delegate spread. I think it was strange yesterday to watch Governor Rendell try to spin a 4% victory for HRC as "huge."

by lucky monkey 2008-04-21 08:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Short of a 60% + win for HRC ...

That's called "managing expectations."  It's Politics 101, nothing to see here...

by jarhead5536 2008-04-21 09:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

52/48.

by RussTC3 2008-04-21 08:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

what makes a final prediction difficult here is the lack of agreement on the question of who has the momentum

Actually, that is not the impression I have.  Polls that are re-cast more frequently show that Clinton has the momentum now.  Polls that are revised over longer periods of time show that, generally, Obama can close a gap when he's able to campaign for six weeks.

You know what I think is more accurate than polls at this point?  Measure the way each campaign is setting expectations.

Obama campaign: we don't need to win, just show that we could close the gap, given all the advantages she had going into this

Clinton campaign: we don't need to win by double digits, just show that we could win at all, given all the advantages he had going into this

So, for Obama's people to be unwilling to cast this as anybody's game, we expect Hillary to win by something substantive.  For Clinton's people to be so eager to downplay the importance of double digits, we know they expect to win by less than that.

So the answer, based on Obama and Clinton internal figures (inferred from their rhetoric) is: Clinton wins by 4 to 8%

I'll put my money down for 9.

by bobbank 2008-04-21 09:01AM | 0 recs
I agree

8% or 9%.  Close enough so that few would consider it a blowout, but far enough that Clinton has a valid excuse to move the goalposts to NC/IN.

by Dracomicron 2008-04-21 09:27AM | 0 recs
Your logic

hunts (unlike many dogs who don't hunt).  I can see where it comes from.

by Student Guy 2008-04-21 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I predict Hillary by 9.

Post election media spin as follows:

As regards Obama:

  • Outspends Hillary by more than 3 to 1 and still can't close the deal.
  • Has lost every one of the largest 8 states in population except his own home state
  • Losing badly among white, working-class voters.  What does this mean for the general election if he wins the nomination?

As regards Hillary:
* A solid win, but is it enough?  Can she translate this to enough clout with super-delegates to help her win the nomination?  

by markjay 2008-04-21 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Agree with all your points except "Close the deal."

Penn is Hillary's home state, she's from there, and virtually the entire machine has been behind her there since BEFORE the primary started?

She was ahead by 30?

Why did she lose at leat half that, down to what most people are predicting?

It's a false argument to think Obama "can't close the deal" by not beating Hillary in Penn since he started so far behind?

Now, you want to make that arguement, make if for Indiana?

IF Obama loses IN to Senator Clinton THEN your argument will and should resonate.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 09:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Losing badly among white, working-class voters.  What does this mean for the general election if he wins the nomination?
That women are voting for the woman candidate just as African American's are voting for the african American candidate?

Do you folks not realize that the majority of the Democratic party's voters are women and that they are, and have been for the most part, solidly in Clinton's camp?

by RussTC3 2008-04-21 09:49AM | 0 recs
Huh?

Wait, isn't Texas one of the top 8 states?  He won it.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-21 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

lol

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

I guess someone needs to remind people that he won Texas.  Might as well be me, I guess.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-21 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

lol

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

That sounds spot on.  I couldn't write it any better.  Good analysis of what will happen spin wise.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

It's all turnout now, and I think Obama will outperform expectations by a bit because the voters think he will be the nominee.  Clinton will win by 5.

by CA Pol Junkie 2008-04-21 09:09AM | 0 recs
Gallup today (national): O-49, C-42

Obama Regains Lead Over Clinton, 49% to 42%

by Bob Johnson 2008-04-21 09:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup today (national): O-49, C-42

These polls really need to find some way to correct for the Obama "weekend dip" :P - it's pretty consistent.  Well, unless it's actually something real that occurs among the electorate and not an issue with polling methodology.

by moreperfectunion 2008-04-21 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup today (national): O-49, C-42

How is it a "weekend dip" when he gained over the weekend?  The 49-42 result was conducted over the weekend.  The ones that were closer, that were released this weekend, contained end of work-week polling.  

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 12:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I'm betting that it's going to be between a 5% to 8% win for Clinton, which will basically seal her fate, despite the pro HRC spin that will call this a major victory.

Basically, she lost between 10-15 points from her "I married Bill" head start in a couple weeks.  

by Darknesse 2008-04-21 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

"Basically, she lost between 10-15 points from her "I married Bill" head start in a couple weeks."

Maybe 10, and a lot more than a couple of weeks.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html

There were 5 major polls in February, post Super Tuesday.

They showed the race at 47-37, +10 Clinton.

Rasmussen 02/26 - 02/26 Clinton +4.0
Quinnipiac 02/21 - 02/25 Clinton +6.0
Franklin & Marshall 02/13 - 02/18 Clinton +12.0
Morning Call 02/09 - 02/17 Clinton +14.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 Clinton +16.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html

Today, it is 49-43.1, Clinton +5.9

In two months since Super Tuesday, Obama has gained 4.1 points.

Using March's average of every poll, including ARG's asinine +26, the results showed:

Clinton 50.6  Obama 38.3,  Clinton +12.3

There is little evidence that she has lost "10-15 points" in a "couple weeks."

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 01:01PM | 0 recs
Hillary by 8

If undecideds are pissed about negative campaign from both sides and don't turnout, then it's Hillary by 5.

If polls somehow failed to factor in Obama's registration drive + undecideds don't come out, then it's Obama by 1

by Democratic Unity 2008-04-21 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

If Hillary wins by even 6%, it'll be a great victory in the eyes of the super delegates because it's all about electability now. Obama has been pouring 3x more money into PA in the hopes of finishing Hillary off so any win on her part will be seen as a big loss on his part.

Obama just can't close the deal! He will be seen as an extremely weak GE candidate. It's all about electoral votes now, not popular votes or delegates. If Obama can't win against Hillary in the most important states, he won't stand a chance against McCain.

Hillary is gong to come out of this looking like the stronger of the two candidates.

by Nobama 2008-04-21 09:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

If Obama can turn a 20+ point loss into a 6 point loss, then he'd have a chance of flipping any state where he was down under 14 points.

by thezzyzx 2008-04-21 09:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

THAT'S A FANTASY.  THE MORE PEOPLE LOOK AT AND HEAR HIM TALK THE MORE PEOPLE WON'T LIKE HIM.

I WAS GOING TO VOTE FOR HIM IF HE WINS THE PRIMARY; BUT AFTER WHAT HE SAID AND WHAT WE'RE LEARNING ABOUT HIM, THAT'S NOT GONNA HAPPENED.

MAYBE IF HE DON'T MAKE ANYMORE SPEECHES FOR OVER 2 MONTHS, I MIGHT VOTE FOR HIM.

by SHIBAM8P 2008-04-21 09:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

ANOTHER THING, THE ONLY REASON THAT OBAMA IS GETTING GETTING AHEAD IN THE PAST IS BECAUSE OF THE REPUBLICAN'S - STOP HILLARY CAMPAIGN, RUSH LIMBAUGH OPERATION CHAOS AND THE HONEYMOON PERIOD WITH THE MASS MEDIA.

BUT IF THE  MCCAIN IS THE NOMINEE THE TIDE WILL TURN, OBAMA WILL LOSE BIG TIME... AND THAT IS THE TRUTH!

by SHIBAM8P 2008-04-21 09:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Wait, Obama is getting ahead due to Limbaugh getting Republicans to vote for Clinton?  How does that work?

by thezzyzx 2008-04-21 09:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

well, it just sounds dumb until you PUT IT IN ALL CAPS.

by the mollusk 2008-04-21 10:34AM | 0 recs
Hmmm

I actually got an email from Obama asking me to go to PA to help register "Democrats for a Day" and telling me how to do it.  You guys are kidding yourselves if you think Dems for a day do anything for Obama other than to rig a primary election.  

Obama cannot win the general election.  I have been a yellow-dog-Democrat forever and, if Obama is the nominee, I will NOT vote for him.  But way bigger than that is that none of the Dems for a day are going to vote for him either.

by macmcd 2008-04-21 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Hmmm

Let me get this straight....if Hillary doesn't get the nomination, you'll NOT vote for Obama?  Who will you vote for? John McSame?  Nader?  Come on, Hillary is my candidate of choice, but I'll certainly back Obama.  Let's focus on change: whether it's Hillary OR Obama.  We can not stand to have 4 more years.

by citizensane 2008-04-21 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

First off, just because you type in ALL CAPS doesn't make your argument true.  Second, it's pretty conclusive that the Republican machine does want to face Hillary.  If anything, they have been "messing up" the vote by voting for her.  They have had anti-Clinton ads and talking points ready for 15 years.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-21 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

What kind of Dem supporter are you?  Stop with the MSM's "CW".  I'm a Hillary supporter, but if Obama is the nominee (and I'm a realist, he looks more than likely to be), I will GLADLY support him.  And, unless you want another 4 years of McBush, you will support him too.  GROW UP.  Realize that either Hillary or Obama is WAY BETTER than McCain.

John McCain= More of the SAME.

by citizensane 2008-04-21 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Ok two things - first stop shouting, and second, start making sense.

by interestedbystander 2008-04-21 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

What 20+ point loss?  Care to explain using polling data?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 01:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

He closes the deal in Indiana, NO ONE expected him to beat Senator Clinton in her home state.

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 09:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

They've been voting in Indiana for 2 weeks now.  I think that will be within 2-3% and it's quite possible Clinton wins it.

I have a better chance in NC, than Clinton, being half black and not Clinton.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 01:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

"If Obama can't win against Hillary in the most important states, he won't stand a chance against McCain."

I couldn't disagree more with this statement.

Clinton is a far superior candidate to John McCain. The two best candidates for president just happen to be running against each other right now to decide who destroys McCain.

To say that the voters who vote for Clinton will immediately switch to McCain is an insult to both Clinton supporters and Clinton herself.

by SFValues 2008-04-21 09:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

If she only wins by six percent in the state where her demographics are probably her strongest, she will not be seen as electable.  

by Drummond 2008-04-21 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Sen Obama hasn't been gambling on a victory by pouring money into the state.  He was sitting on a massive pile of cash going into PA and it's even larger now, so if anything he's been being overly frugal.

It isn't about some sort of moral victory but about closing in various districts to narrow the delegate margin.  It's also about forcing Sen Clinton to spend money she doesn't have on her own advertising - putting her campaign further in further into debt.

by moreperfectunion 2008-04-21 11:59AM | 0 recs
Clinton by 9-10

I think the undecideds will go for Clinton 2:1 or 3:1.

At the district level, I think Clinton nets between 1 and 7, with 3 being most likely and at the at-large level she nets probably 5 but maybe 7.

So the delegate split is probably 83-75 but may be anywhere in between 86-72 and 82-76.

A couple of polls have shown Obama with a 4% lead in the suburbs (?!), which suggests he might even come out +1 or +3 at the delegate level, but I just don't believe it.

by niq 2008-04-21 09:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Here's my two cents:

HRC: 58 or 57
BHO: 41 or 42

HRC +17 or +15

by katrinareyes 2008-04-21 09:42AM | 0 recs
sorry if this is a duplicate
C-55
O-43
Other - 2
by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-21 09:47AM | 0 recs
Hilary wins by about 10
Not much change in the pledged delegate count.
SD's continue to swarm to Obama.
Obama closes the deal May 6 in NC.
by parahammer 2008-04-21 09:53AM | 0 recs
Passover effect


Any poll taken over the weekend would be impacted by Passover.

There's a considerable Jewish population in PA, especially the Philadelphia area. You can see what the area concentrations are on this map:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/co mmons/0/0c/Jews-usa-county.jpg

Any poll taken over the weekend showing a drop in support for Hillary in the Philly area would be affected by the Passover effect. The latest SUSA poll, for example, is a case in point.

by Nobama 2008-04-21 09:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Passover effect

They are tied amongst Jewish Voters, probably wouldn't be enough to through off the sample.  What is likely to through it off more, however, is the likelyhood that under 40 voters tend not to be home on weekends.

by CardBoard 2008-04-21 10:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Passover effect

Dream on.

by Nobama 2008-04-21 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Passover effect

I think the polls are pretty accurate...I was just stating the facts that Its doubtfull the Passover Affect is much of anything.

by CardBoard 2008-04-21 10:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Passover effect

As a Jewish voter, I can assure you that a significant majority of Jewish voters will answer the phone on Passover.  Among the small number that may not do so, most of these wouldn't have answered the phone on any other Friday evening or Saturday.

by Onward Virginia Democrats 2008-04-21 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Not sure how much Clinton's lack of money will affect her turnout.  I Predict Hillary picks up 8 delegates (what this race is really about).  And wins by 4 due to heavy AA turnout in Philly.

by CardBoard 2008-04-21 09:59AM | 0 recs
Its not about

the margin, its about the net gain in popular vote.  To make a valid claim for the nomination, Clinton has to take the popular vote lead.  If you project the rest of the contests, she needs to net at 300K tonight to have a shot a catching Obama in the popular vote (if you include Fla).

by fladem 2008-04-21 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Its not about

I think this mantra about "The popular vote" is only really in the minds of the Clinton accolyades and surrogates?

The cling to that (and, hopefully they are not bitter) because they know she can't overtake the voted delegate count.

But, HOW do you determine the popular vote in a state like mine?  We caucus, there is no real hard count?

So, for all the sturm und drang from the Clinton campaign about disenfranchising MI and FL, they are perfectly happy to disenfranchise me?

Oh, but I forgot. I'm a latte drinking college educated  person making over $100K?

I don't need a president it seems...

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 10:25AM | 0 recs
I estimated

it at openleft.

The Clinton campaign adopted Popular Vote as the standard.  When they lose it, they will have no remaining narrative to claim victory.

by fladem 2008-04-21 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: I estimated

I think they could just as easily come up with another fine sounding metric if popular vote fails them (and I do not meant his to be a slam on Clinton, any politican in a race will try and use whatever they can as long as they have a shot).

Of course, whether that metric will hold water in the end would be highly debateable.

The problem is the supers dont have to have a metric to make their choice.  For most of us it would be nice if they did and it fit with our values but Ive always said they can choose a candidate because they like their shoes or new haircut.

by pattonbt 2008-04-21 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Its not about

My calculations project she needs to net at least 200,000 to have any chance at the popular vote using jay cost's vote calculator.  300,000 makes it much more likely, assuming she doesn't lose NC by more than 250,000.

The key is PR turnout and vote breakdown.  We have no real precedent there.

If turnout in PR really is 1-2 million, that will decide the popular vote if Clinton carries on to that point.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 12:39PM | 0 recs
My calculations

are at openleft.  The problem for Clinton is that after Pennsylvania almost half the votes are in Oregon and North Carolina combined, two states were she trails.

I can't see how she is going to catch him.

by fladem 2008-04-21 02:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I would say it really depends on which Pennsylvania shows up tomorrow.

It could be anywhere from a 9 point win for Clinton (I am hard pressed to see it going much higher than this) to a "too close to call margin."

by JDF 2008-04-21 10:07AM | 0 recs
latest Insider Advantage C49-O39 poll

Please update your diary with fresh Insider Advantage C49-O39 poll:
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/s torylink_421_351.aspx

SInce 12% undecided and I assume they will go 2-to-1 for Hillary, than this poll actually saying she will win C57-O42, so it is close to my prediction as well. Insider Advantage said:

"Sen. Hillary Clinton has a significant lead over Sen. Barack Obama with just a day to go until the Democratic Pennsylvania presidential primary, with an unusually high number of voters still undecided. Here are the results of Sunday night's poll:

Hillary Clinton 49%
Barack Obama 39%
Undecided 12%

The poll was conducted April 20 among 747 likely voters in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4%. All data have been weighted for age, race and gender. InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery: "What's most interesting about this poll is that about of 12% likely voters remain undecided."

Details are here:
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/d ownloads/uploaded/41_InsiderAdvantage_Ma jority_Opinion_PA_DEM_Pol_(4-21-08).pdf

by engels 2008-04-21 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Clinton by 8-9% sounds about right... although I think that would be a pretty big blow to Clinton.

by leshrac55 2008-04-21 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Clinton by 12 percent.

by Drummond 2008-04-21 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Fladem has a popoular vote breakdown which pretty convincingly shows that Clinton will need a 380,000 vote margin tomorrow to catch up.  Fladem includes Florida, and has Kentucky and WV going 36-65 for Clinton.  

Given the amount of her supporters who have said SD should go with the popular vote leader - This is bad news come the weekend.

http://openleft.com/showDiary.do;jsessio nid=518A91FC29B29DB27528B225630BA4E7?dia ryId=5278

by CardBoard 2008-04-21 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Senator Clinton's diehards will just switch to something else then?

It's not THE POPULAR VOTE, but the POPULAR VOTE in Key states, NY, PA, CA?

Or, She is more elecatable, cause she wins the white vote?  

It will be something else, anything but admit the truth?

She HAD this in the bag, she listened to idiots like Penn, she had NO ground game for caucus states or anything following SuperTuesday, and Penn and the rest of the consultants spent all the money by then anyway?

That would mean Hillary made a mistake, and those are the words they never will speak...

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

My prediction: Clinton will win big - I sense Massachussetts all over again. I read the Zogby poll and his Sunday sample shows a huge swing towards Hillary.

Clinton 58%
Obama 41%
(1% couldn't figure out how to vote correctly as usual)

by sunnyaz08 2008-04-21 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Clinton by 9-10%.

by forecaster15 2008-04-21 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Using multiple regression analysis and some prognostication:

Clinton 54.0
Obama 44.8
Clinton +9.2

Turnout: 2,176,000
Clinton nets 200,000 votes, loses NC by about that many (but 2x the margin, pct wise).

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Like Ohio, Clinton by ten.

However, if she does better than that, expect the pressure to increase on BO to get out of the race.  If, somehow, Hill does better than 13%, BO has real trouble on his hands, NC landslide notwithstanding.

If its over 15%, its all over but the shouting, Jacko!

by krj47 2008-04-21 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Are you joking?  Laughable.

BO is the party nominee, for better or worse.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-21 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Clinton by 6%. But, of course, her hopeless campaign will keep on going (on fumes).

by kitebro 2008-04-21 02:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

how many candidates are on the ballot?  "other" has always gotten a fair share, i imagine mostly core edwards, kucinich and gravel (hee, hee, ha,  ha,) supporters.  if any of the others are on the ballot, i expect at least 2% to go to him,, which would certainly affect the margins.

more than O&C on the ballot:  O:46 C: 52 other:2

O&C O:47 C:53

this is based on survey usa.  the 2% undecided will go about 55/45 for clinton, and the other will fall as they may, though closly down the 50/50 line (again 55/45 clinton).  at least that's my take.  so i'd say clinton by 6, +- 2.  also, when do the polls close?

by Doug Tuttle 2008-04-21 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

by fair share i mean 2-4%

by Doug Tuttle 2008-04-21 02:35PM | 0 recs
Obama camp

predicting loss by 5%.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-04-21 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

BO won texas the same way Bush won FL.  is that the kind of counting Democrats do?  why Obama supporters feel the need to act like he doesn't lose what he loses or a ten point loss tomorrow (I'm predicting 15) doesn't say something about his dismal general election prospects is very disconcerting.  beyond his hideous right wing framing, elitism (see Paul Krugman for an explanation of how wrong BO's pandering to the richie riches was) and disturbing personal friends, his supporters make this Hillary supporter and lifelong Dem practically unable to consider voting for him come November.  the whole cult of personality is just nauseating for me.  oh, and by the way, Hillary is by far the more progressive candidate.  bring on the flames...

by joker 2008-04-21 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

I agree, Clinton by 8% (same as Ohio). This race has defied every possible resolution, so I suppose this continues into May. I think if Obama wins Indiana (and North Carolina), we can seriously start to consider Clinton dropping out.

by psublue 2008-04-21 04:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread

Nobody has a good model for primaries

They only have good models for general elections, and the presidential general in particular, because in recent cycles it has been very predictable who will vote in those elections.  The same demographics, in roughly the same numbers, show up at the polls cycle after cycle in presidential years.

In contrast, no one knows who's going to vote in any given primary, because that varies a lot, from state to state in the same cycle, and between the same state one cycle and the next.  This is true for total percentage turnout, and for the demographic breakdown of that total turnout.

by gtomkins 2008-04-21 10:09PM | 0 recs

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