Clinton can win in Florida, Ohio, & Penn in GE
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Apr 02, 2008 at 07:04:09 AM EDT
Quinnipiac has a new PA poll out for Clinton vs Obama, but they also poll the GE match-ups in the states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:
* Florida: Clinton 44 percent - McCain 42 percent; McCain beats Obama 46 - 37 percent
* Ohio: Clinton beats McCain 48 - 39 percent; Obama gets 43 percent to McCain's 42 percent
* Pennsylvania: Clinton tops McCain 48 - 40 percent; Obama leads McCain 43 - 39 percent.[One thing to note here (for this large poll sample), in highlighting Clinton leading the states of PA & OH, and not Obama: the leads by Clinton in PA & OH are outside the MOE, while the leads of Obama in those two states are within the MOE. In FL, Clinton's lead is within the MOE, while Obama trails McCain in FL outside the MOE.]
One of the things I've argued all along is that Clinton, in creating a narrative of standing up for Florida to be counted, has opened up the potential that she could win there over McCain. She already has a demographic advantage, with a heavy Latino voting population, migrated voters from NY and other NE locations, older women voters, and the main issue being economics.
Obama's anemic numbers to date in Florida have pretty much taken it off the table for his chances (and who knows where he makes it up). It'd take a serious investment for his campaign to compete there, and most importantly, he's not been sending a message to Florida voters that he wants their votes counted. The secret key to how Clinton gets the nomination aside for the moment, a win by Clinton over McCain seems entirely possible in Florida.
Ohio looks even better for Clinton vs McCain. The reason why, appears to be the economy. It's an issue on which Clinton has much more association, than either McCain or Obama, both of whom are associated with the Iraq war instead-- McCain as a warmonger and Obama as a voice of reason. But like most polls lately, this one shows that the economy is becoming the single most important issue by around a majority. While Iraq and Healthcare remain as issues, its not even close to the importance of the economy in the minds of voters.This is a deep poll, it'd be worth it to look into the cross-tabs. It included over 5,500 polled in FL, OH, and PN. They also found this: