14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

From the diaries. Obama could run for Governor of Iowa as an Illinois resident and win, but can he break out of the 20's in Kentucky against Clinton or, if he gets the nod, against McCain? More seriously, Virginia seems in the pocket of McCain again, jerome

These come with the usual caveats about April polling for a November contest. But, someone will eventually post them, so why not me? Nothing too different from their last report (summary in links at bottom).  

Massachusetts:

Clinton 56
McCain 41

Obama 48
McCain 46

New Mexico:

Clinton 46
McCain 49

Obama 44
McCain 50

Missouri:

Clinton 47
McCain 46

Obama 42
McCain 50

New York:

Clinton 55
McCain 39

Obama 52
McCain 43

Ohio:

Clinton 53
McCain 42

Obama 45
McCain 47

Oregon:

Clinton 47
McCain 46

Obama 51
McCain 42

Virginia:

Clinton 39
McCain 55

Obama 44
McCain 52

Minnesota:

Clinton 47
McCain 46

Obama 49
McCain 43

Wisconsin:

Clinton 46
McCain 46

Obama 49
McCain 44

Kansas:

Clinton 36
McCain 57

Obama 37
McCain 54

Alabama:

Clinton 34
McCain 60

Obama 32
McCain 64

California:

Clinton 53
McCain 40

Obama 50
McCain 43

Iowa:

Clinton 42
McCain 48

Obama 49
McCain 42

Kentucky:

Clinton 46
McCain 48

Obama 29
McCain 63

http://www.surveyusa.com/electionpolls.a spx

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/ 04/17/april-head-to-head-contests-six-st ates-flip/

Tags: clinton, general election, mccain, november, obama, polls (all tags)

Comments

169 Comments

Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

This proves that Clinton is electable, she is either tied or winning in those swing states such as MO, OH, KY, etc.

by American1989 2008-04-17 02:09PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

hahahahahahahahaha

oh man i am only laughing cause you honestly believe that.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-17 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Um, what's so funny about that statement? There's nothing stated above that's not true.

by VAAlex 2008-04-17 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

well thats true he said electable I thought it was implied that Clinton was MORE electable then obama because of these polls. that would make me laugh.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-17 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Truth matters, but so does reading comprehension.  You jumped the gun because you wanted to see the word "more" in front of electable.  

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

yeah I just said that, I guess I am too use to both sides arguing that only THEIR candidate is the electable one.

oh hey look at the top diary, someone using these very polls to argue that only Clinton is electable wow where did i ever get an idea like this from.

by TruthMatters 2008-04-17 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

If you're looking for something hard enough, you're going to find it. It's like saying after a car crash, gee, I KNEW this would happen. Anyone can argue whatever they wish, but let's be accurate at least about what people are arguing.

by VAAlex 2008-04-17 02:53PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out
So do you really think that Massachusetts would be competitive for McCain, vs Obama, in the GE?


It's not just that it's only April.  The main issue with this post's inference is that we are in the midst of a primary (even thoough the outcome is pretty clear), and people are responding to pollsters in that context.
by xtrarich 2008-04-18 01:45AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

There is one factor in MA which makes Obama shaky. "Just words", no action. The person from whom Obama picked all the change slogans is Deval Patrick and he has flopped as a Governer. So MA people might think that the talk of change is just rhetoric.

by Sandeep 2008-04-18 02:58AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I never said anything about Massachusetts, I was replying to the comment regarding the commenter thinking "MORE electable" instead of just electable.

Do I think Obama will carry Massachusetts? Probably, but he'll have to work at it. These are simply not good numbers for a Democrat to have in this state. I mean, come on, Dukakis even carried MA.

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 03:16AM | 0 recs
Its all true and all irrelevant

Repeat after me: Obama moves numbers; Clinton doesn't.

Look at the entire primary season.  Obama was far behind in essentially every poll earlier this year.  Clinton ran an "inevitablility" campaign.

Obama just simply out-campaigned her.  Just a few months ago, he was down 20-30 points in PA.  I think he will lose, but only by a few points.

In nearly every state, Clinton started with a big lead and slide down while Obama climbed up.  That is what will happen in the General Election. Because Obama can move numbers.  Get him on the campaign trail, get the big crowds, get the phone banks going and the thousands of volunteers.

I don't care what the numbers look like now, he is going to CRUSH McCain.  And the Republicans know it.  That is why they are jumping all over Obama and giving Clinton a pass on everything.  They fear Obama, for very good reason.

by smoker1 2008-04-17 08:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Its all true and all irrelevant

Um, you're being naive if you think that Obama's going to 'move numbers' the way he's been doing in a primary campaign. For one thing, he's been gaining in the primary because the universe of voters has been DEMOCRATS. If you think Obama will 'move numbers' against McCain the way he has against Clinton, it's not going to happen.

No one's denying he's a good campaigner. And if you think they're giving a pass on Clinton on everything, then that's also laughable. Check out the RNC's website.

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 03:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Its all true and all irrelevant

Your point is well taken.  6 months ago, Obama was down 20-30 points.  6 months from now he is not going to gain another 20-30 points on McCain.  He is not going to surge at the same rate going into the GE as he has against Clinton.

All I'm saying is that he can move numbers--he has tremendous upside potential--and Clinton does not.  I don't know how any analysis of the polling trends can arrive at a different conclusion.

Republicans may not have many skills, but they do know how to read polls.  They understand that the Obama potential could lead to 40 GOP Senators and a much smaller minority in the House.  Obviously Clinton can win in November, but she does not have the potential to render the GOP powerless on Capitol Hill.

by smoker1 2008-04-18 07:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Its all true and all irrelevant

Obama will help defeat 9 GOP Senators? Which ones are those?

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 08:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Its all true and all irrelevant

Well, not exactly.  There are some retirements that will assist, but here we go:

Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Oregon
Alaska
Maine
Minnesota

Then we have to win in either Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma or North Carolina.  None of this is easy, but can we do it?  Yes, we can.

by smoker1 2008-04-18 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Its all true and all irrelevant

Virginia's probably going to go Dem, with Mark Warner. As is NH.

Colorado's close and will be a tossup, as is New Mexico. As will Mineesota.

New Mexico I'd say will go Dem, but will probably be close.

Alaska will probably stay Republican, unless it's a huge Dem year.

I've not seen a single poll recently saying Oregon or Maine have any likely chance of going Dem.

Nebraska, Texas, Oklahoma, and NC will stay Republican. I'd like it otherwise, but they will.

So you'll pardon me if I don't buy the 'Obama will give us so many more seats than we have right now' line.

by VAAlex 2008-04-19 03:56PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

The poster is sourcing polls from one of the more reputable agencies. What are you using?

by msharp 2008-04-17 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

kool-aid

by KainIIIC 2008-04-17 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Both Clinton and Obama are electable. They just have different strengths and different weaknesses. I personally think Clinton will have a better shot at winning because of where her strengths are--the Rust Belt, FL.

by RJEvans 2008-04-17 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I would love to have seen a Florida one from SUSA today.  Perhaps a Tennessee, Arkansas, West Virginia, Colorado, and Michigan one too.

The latest Colorado poll I saw yesterday showed Obama and Clinton both down 12.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

A poll like that in CO would be pretty bad for Obama considering his diehards like to point out that Ohio, Florida, etc don't matter because Obama is going to win CO, Missouri, etc.

by msharp 2008-04-17 02:20PM | 0 recs
That poll had

a sample of 300 which isn't very accurate.

by Student Guy 2008-04-17 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: That poll had

I think you might need to look at a little more than the sample size to decide whether or not a poll is accurate. These are SUSA polls, not Zogby.

by Denny Crane 2008-04-17 07:01PM | 0 recs
I was

referring to the poll out about Colorado which was not a SUSA poll it was an insider target (or some obsurce shit like that) please get information into your head before you try to contradict things.

by Student Guy 2008-04-17 08:17PM | 0 recs
Re: I was

Please link to this poll. Thanks.

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 03:20AM | 0 recs
Go look at

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com

He collects the polls over there and you'll see it and it will be explained over there.

by Student Guy 2008-04-18 06:34AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Obama does better in CO, no doubt about that. I would wager he also does better in Michigan. FL, TN, AR and WV are better for Clinton.

Rasmussen has Clinton losing to McCain in AR. The last Survey USA poll, which was in FEB, has her leading. Both firms have Obama losing big. Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and Survey USA have Clinton winning FL while Obama loses. In TN, Rasmussen has Clinton losing BIG, while Survey USA (Feb poll) has her tied. Obama loses big in both polls. In WV, Survey USA has her leading, while Obama loses big.

So, as I said, different strengths, different weaknesses.

by RJEvans 2008-04-17 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

"Obama does better in CO, no doubt about that."

No doubt?!#@  None whatsoever?  OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOK....

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_targe tpoint_colorado_sen.php

McCain 51
Obama 39

McCain 52
Clinton 40

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Buddy, relax. Obama does better in CO. Even this Clinton supporter can admit that. And who the hell is TargetPoint/New Leadership USA? I never heard of them.

by RJEvans 2008-04-17 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I imagine he will do better in Colorado, but I think he'll still lose there.

I am more alarmed that MA, NY, and CA come into play with him as the nominee, while FL goes out the window, and we start from behind in MO and OH.  That's not a rosy picture.

Where he is "better" than Clinton, such as WI and MN, it is within the MOE.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:36PM | 0 recs
Sen Obama

Will lose by a less lopsided double digit margin than Clinton will in the red states, while Clinton has the better chance to carry states that are in play.

by activatedbybush 2008-04-17 05:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Sen Obama

That makes me think that Clinton is a better bet in GE. If I am gonna lose anyway, I dont care by how much. What matters is winning electoral votes from the states in play.

by Sandeep 2008-04-18 03:03AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Haha, I'm sorry, but there is NO way either Massachusetts or New York "come into play" with Obama as the nominee.  If by "come into play," you mean a 10 point win, then ok.  I lived in upstate NY (nowhere near the city) for 18 years and while many of the people there are conservative, there are way too many urban centers (Albany, Syracuse, New York City) and way too many college kids for that state to go red.  As for Massachusetts, I lived there for 10 years and there is even less chance of it happening there.  I'll put money on both states.  I now live in Pennsylvania, and I'm not as convinced that it will flip blue for Obama, but I'm hoping.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-17 08:44PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I agree with the exception that Obama does not need to flip PA blue, Gore and Kerry both carried PA with relative ease. I have no reason to believe that Obama will fare any worse.

by tommy 2008-04-17 09:48PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

The Appalachia factor will hurt him here.  That's why on average, Clinton carries PA by 4-8 pts while Obama either barely wins it or loses narrowly.  

Michigan is anybody's guess.  "I want to count your votes" v. "I didn't want to count your votes" may be a factor, but a lot of those issues still aren't resolved and it's unclear whether or how much they'll matter in the fall.

Florida is off the table for Obama, while Clinton seems to consistently bring it into the Dem column.  Same with Ohio.  

Obama is stronger in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa.  

by BPK80 2008-04-18 12:03AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Of Ohio-Pennsylvania-Florida, Obama currently loses all three. Show me the states he can conceivably put into play that will make up for this 60-odd EC votes.

Clinton's got Ohio in the bag, Pennsylvania probably as well, and Florida would definitely be competitive. I'd rather have to focus on three states instead of the 10 or so Obama'd need to win to eke out a win.

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 03:23AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

How about instead of that, I just show you that he (probably) wins Pennsylvania.  

Despite the fact that he is not the official nominee yet and hasn't been able to confront McCain, Obama does quite well in Pennsylvania.  4 of these 5 polls have Obama ahead, with large undecided voters in every case.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs _obama-244.html

Certainly Obama could lose it, but he has a long time to solidify those votes.  McCain is not going to do any better than he's doing right now, when he has all the advantages.  McCain is a bad campaigner and a bad debater (he can't even remember his own stand on issues).

I think Ohio is potentially winnable for Obama, maybe not.  Florida looks out of the question, for now at least.  

Here's Obama's worst case path to 270 (271 actually):

Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, DC, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Nevada, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii.  

That's 271 and a victory for Obama.  He needs to work hard to secure PA and MI and IN, but the rest should be pretty solidly in the bag.  And this path does not take into account the possibility of getting Virginia, Colorado, Georgia, Missouri, North or South Dakota, or any others that are at least potentially in play.  

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 06:09AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

How you input Indiana into Obama's WORST case path is beyond me.

Pennsylvania -- I'm looking at Hillary's margin and the exit polls to show how well Obama can do in this state. That will be key.

Ohio -- Obama's already proved he's pretty weak here, especially among the down-scale blue collar workers that swing the state. Hillary has shown incredible strength among these in the state. Witness Ohio's sixth and eighth districts.

Florida -- Hillary will make this into a very competitive state. It will be more like 2000 and less than 2004, which is how I would say Obama would fare in Florida, if not worse.

Putting Pennsylvania & Indiana into Obama's worst case scenario is premature, at the very least. On the other hand, he's got a decent shot at Colorado -- maybe -- and Missouri. I doubt Virginia is in play. Georgia, ND, & SD will not be in play.

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 06:20AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Kerry won Pennsylvania by 150,000 votes.  I'm not sure how you anticipate Obama doing worse.  Indiana is a valid concern, and he may not win it.  But he also may win Ohio.  Kerry lost Colorado by 100,000, so that may or may not be winnable.  Fortunately we'll be seeing how Obama does, though we'll never know how Clinton would have done.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Why would you say I anticipate Obama doing worse? I said I will wait until Pennsylvania votes next week to see how it goes. There's no comparison between Kerry's general election victory and Obama's likely loss there since the two were different elections and Kerry had already essentially won the nomination at the equivalent point in his primary.

The smugness drips from your post. I'm talking about states and their likelihood of hypothetically voting for Obama. Sometimes I wish Clinton would win this thing just to throw it back into the faces of people like you. And since you can predict the future, please let me know which stocks will be doing well about six months from now.

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

My smugness comes from Clinton supporters like you who want to find something, anything, wrong with Obama.  I mentioned Pennsylvania, because they are not going to suddenly turn away from a Democrat (any Democrat) when they went for Kerry 4 years ago and are doing appreciably worse economically since then.  You claim putting Pennsylvania into Obama's pocket is premature; I disagree.      

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 09:48AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

"My smugness comes from Clinton supporters like you who want to find something, anything, wrong with Obama."

Give me a break. There's a lot of people like that on this site, but I am not one of them. Feel free to look at my comments. I'm looking at the picture objectively based on the numbers. I never presuppose and I don't condescend Obama supporters who rationally engage. I'm not 'finding something, anything wrong with Obama', as you put it, but looking at the states.

by VAAlex 2008-04-18 09:59AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Still, Obama does better in places like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon. He even puts places like Virginia in play.

by fwiffo3 2008-04-17 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Obama does better in some states, Hillary in others. That was never a secret. They both have different bases, and these polls show this. Though SurveyUSA has consistently been better for Clinton, just like Rasmussen is consistently worse for Clinton.

by VAAlex 2008-04-17 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

"Obama does better in places like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon"

Their differences are within the MOE in those places, for the most part.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

It's not much of an arguement, a few weeks ago the arguement was that Clinton was going to lose Wisconsin, Minn, Oregon. For someone who is likely to be the nominee, these are pretty damning numbers at this stage. Colorado and Iowa aren't going to be effective substitutes. Obama's going to have his work cut out.

by msharp 2008-04-17 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

"He even puts places like Virginia in play."

OK, let's play by your logic, which some reprobate Clinton supporter will eventually do anyway.

If -8 in Virginia is "in play," then you have to concede that McCain -9 in New York and -7 in California means that McCain puts those states in play with Obama as the nominee.

Fair enough?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:22PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Oh, and McCain puts Massachusetts in play at -2, if were are going to play the Virginina game.

So, McCain puts NY, CA, and MA, "safe Democratic" states in play based on your contention that Obama puts Virginia (-8) in play.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Bullshit. Obama has an outside but real chance of winning VA. As far as statewide races are concerned,the Democratic party here in VA is flourishing, providing Obama with an army of high profile surrogates. Who the hell is  McCain going to trot out ? Macacca? Gilmore, who will,  by the way, be in the throes of having his ass wiped all over the state by one of Obamas potential surrogates? Not to mention the possibility of having Webb on the ticket. ...Wouldnt count my chickens.

by tommy 2008-04-17 10:01PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Sure. They both are.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-17 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I agree. Obama will lose all of the swing states including Florida and Michigan. It will become a total embarrassment for the Democrats..comparable to George McGovern and Michael Dukakis

by steve468 2008-04-17 03:47PM | 0 recs
polls

are highly dubious political media industry tools (commercial polling - not inside campaign polling)

nobody is going to decide that the super delegates will support her based on these or any other polls; by all measures she will not become the nominee or by such slim chance that her liabilities she brings to contest through and until the convention outweigh any other 'asset' she can bring toward a Democrat winning in November; in the judgment of majority voters who are carrying the day and have already delivered Obama to frontrunner status that Hillary can't overcome by whatever means she can put together through the remaining primary/caucus process ( all the possibilities have been examined and she can't get there )  

so the last thread you cling to are commercial media polls.... you can't make a winning argument on that it exposes your inability to understand the realities and practicality of the electoral process;

you are on the side of wasting the historic moment to invigorate the Democratic party under Obama and take back the White House for vital interests of the people who identify as opposition to the GOP and America (I include you in so far as it makes common sense that you would realize there is a benefit for you/family to have a Dem President in 2009)

by dearreader 2008-04-17 06:42PM | 0 recs
oops typos

IN America.... not 'and' America... yikes !

by dearreader 2008-04-17 10:10PM | 0 recs
Jerome, why not put the summary in the post?

Jerome, why not put the summary in the post?

Last weekend, during the height of the reporting of Barack Obama's "bitter" comment, SurveyUSA was in the field conducting it's monthly head-to-head polling. Today, we have the results, showing six states flipping between last month and this month -- but not all necessarily in the directions you'd expect.

Full results to follow, but for now:

Two states where Obama led John McCain in March have flipped, with McCain now leading Obama.
Two states where McCain led Obama have also flipped, with Obama now leading McCain, for a net wash.
One state where Hillary Clinton led McCain has flipped.
One state where McCain led Clinton has flipped as well.
Overall, Obama gained ground in 7 of the 15 states we polled, lost ground in six, and remained steady in two; Clinton gained ground in 5 states, lost ground in 8, and remained steady in 2.

by DaveDial 2008-04-17 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

With all due respect, what the fuck, exactly, do Obama supporters have to whine about? The last time I checked we were in the process of  doing an end zone dance.

by tommy 2008-04-17 10:07PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

When is the process completing?

by Sandeep 2008-04-18 03:08AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Can someone familiar with Kentucky please explain to me what the hell is going on there?

I have a guess, but not being very familiar with that part of the country, I can't understand why Obama loses 17 point to Clinton there.

by emptythreatsfarm 2008-04-17 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Bill Clinton won Kentucky both times.

They are probably not fond of black candidates in Kentucky.  That would be my guess.

Overall, the SUSA numbers confirm that both candidates have differential strength spatially speaking.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I am sure there is some anti black bias but remember the Clintons are Southerners in a sense.

Even against Kerry the Clintons would do better in Ky.

So its not all racism.

by DTaylor 2008-04-17 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I will give you one clue. They don't like Obama and are not keen on voting for a black.

by steve468 2008-04-17 03:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Masachusetts

Massachusetts tells you - clear as day - who the REAL Democrat is in this campaign.

by johnnygunn 2008-04-17 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Masachusetts

Massachusetts is suffering from buyers remorse on another black first (governor).

I see little indication that this poll is reflecting anything outside that, and potentially a marginally stronger Clinton presence lingering from the primary.

by Capt America 2008-04-17 06:36PM | 0 recs
Electoral Maps Change

I see the two electoral maps on each side of the page now show Mrs. Clinton doing better than Mr. Obama.

by Si Ella Puede 2008-04-17 02:44PM | 0 recs
Obama consistenly weak in OH/FL/PA/MO

worrisome sign, we cant win without those, we can win w/t Iowa, WA though if we carry those other states. Clinton is more electable, i believe, because of Jewish and Hispanic voters in FL and working class Voters in OHIO/KY/PA, and potentially NM with hispanic voters. what states will Obama win to make up for Ohio/Florida alone?

by rigsoHC 2008-04-17 02:45PM | 0 recs
also, look at MASS! thats is worrisome, i live her

and although it comes off as very 'latte liberal' it really isnt. Its also white working class in the western part and suburbs,"townies" if you will. These people don't wanna vote Obama anywhere in the country, I just dont think they connect with his only real streangth, a message of "change and hope"

by rigsoHC 2008-04-17 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: also, look at MASS! thats is worrisome

Since you live in MASS, do you think Patrick's weak approval rating hurts Obama there?

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:51PM | 0 recs
potentially, we here saw a promising Obama

like campaign (run by same guy too) that just turned out to be a disappointment once elected, with Casino pleas that died flat and lots of amateur gaffes like 10,000 dollar Curtains! People put alot into the campaign, including me, to be disappointed in the end, maybe they see that in Obama.

(I still have some hope for Deval to resurrect himself if he hopes to gain re-election)

by rigsoHC 2008-04-17 03:01PM | 0 recs
They are proud people

who don't receive "hope and change" well.  They want to be treated fairly and with respect/dignity.   They want their pocket book issues to be addressed.

by activatedbybush 2008-04-17 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama consistenly weak in OH/FL/PA/MO

"what states will Obama win to make up for Ohio/Florida alone?"

He can win Ohio.

But assume he doesn't

You have to find those 47 EVs somewhere.

Here's where he will get them, where I believe Hillary has almost no hope:

Colorado 9
Montana 3
Virginia 13
Alaska 3
North Carolina 15
Nevada 5
---------------
Obama +48 EVs to make up for Ohio and Florida, which he'll do fine in.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 02:50PM | 0 recs
hes not winning Virginia... look at the polls

i think he came close in one poll, and his supporters act like he has it in the bag, what i've seen CONSISTENTLY though is Obama losing Ohio, Florida, PA, while Clinton wins it. Alaska?

by rigsoHC 2008-04-17 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: hes not winning Virginia... look at the polls

The voters of Alaska and Virgina do not yet know Barack Obama.  Once he campaigns there against the troglodyte McCain, he will win both, the former narrowly, the other comfortably.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: hes not winning Virginia... look at the polls

The voters of Virginia do not yet know Barack Obama?  Is that a joke?

by Denny Crane 2008-04-17 07:11PM | 0 recs
CO and NV are legit targets

Maybe, maybe VA but doubt it.  Don't confuse local elections with national contests in these states.  So that's 27 evs.

by activatedbybush 2008-04-17 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I don't understand why people keep posting these since it will change so many times before the GE.  And especially useless since it will change just from having chosen our nominee.

by Becky G 2008-04-17 03:03PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

It's better than talking about whether you are proud, or really proud, or bitter versus frustrated.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 03:24PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

147 for Clinton, 132 for Obama.  Add in Ohio for Obama (It's really doubtful that Ohio will go Republican again) and we're at 152/147.

This is good news for BOTH candidates, and the Democrats in general.

We will see a significant bounce towards the Democrats once the primary is over.  Have faith.

by RussTC3 2008-04-17 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Never underestimate the ability of anywhere, let alone Ohio, to vote against their economic self interests!

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I'm from Ohio, so believe me I know what you're saying.  But it's different this year, and I really think we'll see that in November.

This election won't, and shouldn't really, be as close as many are making it out to be.  It's close now only because the Democrats don't have their nominee to rally around yet.

by RussTC3 2008-04-17 03:17PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

BO is not going to win OH.  If i was him i would be running a lot of ads in CO because without that he loses.

david

by giusd 2008-04-17 03:31PM | 0 recs
I worry w/Obama

in OH, PA, FL and possibly NJ and CA though think they are safe.  Clinton wins in PA and OH no doubt.  FL will be a toss-up

by activatedbybush 2008-04-17 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Take this ObamaBots! Look at the poll from MA..this is just nuts.

by bsavage 2008-04-17 05:25PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

It also goes hand in hand with the poll showing Obama losing New York.

With Obama as our nominee, the battlegrounds are New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Virginia, and California.  Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio are forfeited.  We retain the upper midwest and upper Pacific coast.  

That spells doom.  

by BPK80 2008-04-18 12:10AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Virginia in the pocket of McCain?

Look at the graph, Jerome. McCain was once crushing McCain by huge margins and he came back. Now he's up once more and its over?

by BlueGAinDC 2008-04-17 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Pickpocket?

I think it'll be tough. VA is a natural constituency for McCain, it's practically his home state.  

Warner, if he goes all out for the nominee, could make the difference.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-04-17 05:48PM | 0 recs
Massachusetts does not sound right to me

Obama by just 2 points!

by ann0nymous 2008-04-17 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Massachusetts does not sound right to me

There have been NUMEROUS polls showing Obama and McCain within a few points of each other in Massachusetts.

Pollster   Dates       N/Pop   JM  BO  ?  Other  
SurveyUSA  4/11-13/08  546 RV  46  48  7  -  
Rasmussen  3/18/08     500 LV  42  49  5  4  
SurveyUSA  3/14-16/08  510 RV  47  47  6  -  
SurveyUSA  2/26-28/08  639 RV  42  49  9  -  
SurveyUSA  2/15-17/08  544 RV  46  48  6  -  
SurveyUSA  1/20-21/08  562 RV  50  45  6  -  
SurveyUSA  12/13-15/07 542 RV  45  47  8  -  
SurveyUSA  11/9-11/07  540 RV  47  44  9  -  

Massachusetts is a purple state with Obama as the nominee.

by DaveOinSF 2008-04-17 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Massachusetts does not sound right to me

Of course, by "numerous polls," you mean numerous SUSA polls.  People like to say how accurate SUSA polls are, and they are.  But only the poll that occurs right before an election.  There is no evidence that SUSA polls 6 months out are any better than any other polls.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 09:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Massachusetts does not sound right to me


We have Deval Patrick here.  We're pretty sure Obama is pretty much the same deal for the country as a whole, whatever ones' opinions are about it.

Forgive our state for not getting enthusiastic about what look like four years in which nothing much happens other than fixing potholes, cutting losses on bad projects, and windy debating about things that are small in the scheme of things.

by killjoy 2008-04-17 07:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Massachusetts does not sound right to me

Well, at least your state fixes the potholes!!  I wish I could get at least that much here....

by LordMike 2008-04-17 07:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Massachusetts does not sound right to me

MA seems to be suffering from "just words, no action" change rhetoric.

by Sandeep 2008-04-18 03:19AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I look at these polls and something immediately stands out.  In states that Clinton won, she does better against McCain than Obama.  That makes perfect sense to me, and I'm excited for that.

The Democrats are going to pounce the Republicans come November.

My initial low-end estimate is 281/257, but in reality it's going to be up and over 300 electoral votes.  Exciting!

by RussTC3 2008-04-17 05:37PM | 0 recs
re

Wow Kennedy and Kerry aren't helping Obama too much back home lol

McCain says he would rather run against Clinton but I don't buy it. The Republicans cannot wait too eat Obama for breakfast. If Obama does what he did last night in a debate with McCain OMG what a disaster! Democrats wake up! Hillary can win Ohio and Florida, Obama cannot. Kerry won WI and OR too but he isn't in the White House is he? I think McCain will win big with whites and hispanics against Obama and that coalition will decimate Obama in the electoral college. Clinton appeals to the demographics a Democrat needs to WIN. As long as she puts Obama on the ticket she will be unstoppable

by rossinatl 2008-04-17 05:40PM | 0 recs
Re: re

I think it has more to do with McCain being an American before he is a Republican and honestly believing that if he were to lose Clinton would do a better job than Obama.

by DTaylor 2008-04-17 06:10PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Why are Clinton supporters so afraid of the big bad Republicans?  My lord.  The Democrats can win.  Period.

by RussTC3 2008-04-17 05:43PM | 0 recs
The great thing about diaries like this one is

when the polls all change a month from now they can be posted and reanalyzed all over again.

But come to think of it, this isn't even a diary or analysis. Just a bunch of cut and pasted polls.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 05:45PM | 0 recs
Re: The great thing about diaries like this one is

We were all looking forward to your deep analysis, thanks for nothin.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-04-17 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: The great thing about diaries like this one is

Here's my expert analysis.

Polls in April = fun to argue about
Polls in April = poop

You can use this on the front page, but I demand at least a hat tip.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-17 06:25PM | 0 recs
Deep Analysis

Like this?

Hey I written some lousey diaries, but, unlike your latest and this one, they are front pagers.

Husseingate didn't work.
Crackgate didn't work.
Fantasygate didn't work.
Wrightgate didn't work.
Ayersgate won't work.
And electability will never work.

Face it, you've nothing but the bitter ashes of Hillary's inevitable presidency to chew on and spit back out at Obama and his majority.

Question: Will YOU support Obama when Hillary's campaign finally gives up the ghost?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 06:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Deep Analysis

With friends like you to look forward too, how could anyone resist?

by Denny Crane 2008-04-17 08:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Deep Analysis

The question wasn't directed to you, but feel free to answer it seriously. Will you put your bitterness aside and vote for, if not support, the Democratic nominee, Obama?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 08:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Deep Analysis

Most mature Democrats will vote for whoever is the nominee. The way you are asking the question to everyone, it seems like:

a) you are afraid that true Democrats (who support Hillary) will walk away from Obama, and
b) you might be one who wont vote for Clinton when she is the nominee.

I hope you are a mature democrat. But if you are not and you love living with Clinton-hatred mindset, then what is there to discuss?

by Sandeep 2008-04-18 03:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Deep Analysis
A straightforward question.
An obtuse answer.
by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-18 12:01PM | 0 recs
I've written some lousey diaries,

But, unlike your latest and this one, they aren't front pagers.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 06:41PM | 0 recs
How can you continue to blog...

... with such thin skin?

It's opaque.

by Bob Johnson 2008-04-17 10:36PM | 0 recs
Re: How can you continue to blog...

I asume this post is in response to Jerome?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 11:22PM | 0 recs
Re: How can you continue to blog...

Uh, Bob, don't take yourself so seriously, it was a joke.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-04-18 12:42AM | 0 recs
C'mon, Jerome...

I find your comments in response to Jonathan's piece and in response to the comment, above, to be humorous.

It's your blog, for god's sake. When kos puts up a stupid post, as he does from time to time and as he did yesterday, many posters take him to task. I rarely see him jump down into the comments with the kind of defensive, thin-skinned responses that you typically feel compelled to post.

You own the joint. Why are you so defensive when people disagree with you?

by Bob Johnson 2008-04-18 05:58AM | 0 recs
You don't get it.

The actual length of this post in terms of inches pushed Jonathan's post calling out Jerome far down the front page.

So this was a two-fer for Jerome!

by Bob Johnson 2008-04-17 10:39PM | 0 recs
Re: You don't get it.

I got it. And the gist of what I said remains unrefuted, despite the distractions.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 11:24PM | 0 recs
Re: The great thing about diaries like this one is

The choice is simple: A President who voted for the worst of Bush's odius agenda, or one who didn't know how he would have!

- That sounds like a fact now:-)

by Sandeep 2008-04-18 03:23AM | 0 recs
Re: The great thing about diaries like this one is

lame.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-18 12:00PM | 0 recs
This is bad

We are on the verge of nominating someone who can't win.  Obama is getting crushed in these southern states - like Kentucky - that he was supposed to put into play, and at risk in states that Democrats should win.

by nascardem 2008-04-17 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: This is bad

wat?  Obama was supposed to put Kentucky in play?  Who said that?

by Skaje 2008-04-17 05:52PM | 0 recs
On the verge of nominating someone who can't win
We keep telling you people.....
Hillary doesn't have a prayer to be the nominee.
by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Some fun with math:

If Obama holds all the Kerry states, gets Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada, it's 269-269 electoral votes, throwing it to the House (which we would win obviously).  Of course, getting Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia would make it a much more comfortable win.

by Skaje 2008-04-17 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

There is a built-in 5-10% penalty for the democrats since they are both still in the race. Why? Because each team is trying to scare the other team into thinking they will vote McCain. Once Obama is the nominee, the swing will normalize and you'll see 5-10 pts added to Obama in each of those states.

Also, no poll conducted in April ever mattered for a November race. Just look at what's happened to McCain and Clinton since December. McCain came back from the dead after being near the top early in 2007. Clinton was supposed to walk into the WH.

It's a marathon, not a Sprint and no SuperDelegate is going to look at polls to make up his/her mind. Not from what I see here. Now if he were losing in every single state by more than 10 pts, then maybe.

---
perezpolitics.com

by comingawakening 2008-04-17 05:53PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I look at it the other way.

There are a lot of supporters who assume he picks her as running mate.  Or she picks him.

If he/she doesn't they will bolt.

So unless there is a unity ticket I think it gets WORSE.

by DTaylor 2008-04-17 06:13PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

That is a very bad assumption to make. Why would anyone think they would pick each? It could happen but it would be a great blow to their credibility-Obama more than Clinton in my opinion.

If I got a call tonight, I would pick Obama over McCain and pick McCain over Clinton to scare all Clinton supporters into giving up. Trust me. I am not saying this is a 100% deal but there is a split int he democrat poll against McCain. I can prove it mathematically but that would be too boring.

20 Polled (50Dem/50Rep)

Republicans

    JM BO    JM  HC
1    x          x
2    x          x
3    x          x
4    x          x
5    x          x
6    x          x
7    x          x
8    x          x
9    x              x  (Rep that can't vote BO but will vote for HRC)
10      x       x     (Rep that can't vote HRC but will vote for BO)

Democrats

    JM BO    JM  HC
11       x          x
12       x          x
13       x          x
14       x          x
15       x          x
16       x          x
17   x   a          x (HRC supporter penalizes BO)
18   x   a          x (HRC supporter penalizes BO)
19       x      x   a (BO supporter penalizes HRC)
20       x      x   a (BO supporter penalizes HRC)

21
22
---------------------------------------- ----------
    11 - 9     11 - 9   Now with built-in penalty
     9 - 11     9 - 11  Post unification "a votes"

by comingawakening 2008-04-17 06:52PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I think a Clinton/Obama ticket wins because it bring the experience of Clinton and the energy of Obama.  I think black people will have a real hard time not voting for the first Black VP and hurt his long term chance as president.  The clintons are pretty good about helping those who help them and would be genuine in supporting Obama when its his turn.

Obama/Clinton is something I would vote for and brings Clinton supporters but I think some of the older Dems won't vote for this and Obama does have a small racist margin to overcome.  I can see how many would see this as not helping Obama, but having Bill that close to the white house can be sold as experience if Obama runs into serious swift boat style problems he could sell a more team presidency which may buy some votes.  

I still have some VERY VERY serious anger issues related to how this campaign ran but enough of that is directed at Obama the movement and not Obama the individual that I can take revenge at a later stage against the movement in the next cycle and not vote against the first black presidential candidate.  But don't take a vote for Obama this cycle from me as a sign of healing wounds...I will vote against the Obama movement folks for the rest of my life and they won't be running the first black candidate all that time.

Obama/Anyone else isn't likely to get my vote.  I am tied to the Clinton legacy not the feminist angle.  I think there are enough of us that Obama/Anyone else would lose.

If Obama is the candidate, and I personally think his best political outcome is to not be, I hope some of those who have his ear understand at least a little of how politics actually works...

by DTaylor 2008-04-17 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Do you support the DLC?  I see this election as DLC vs. DFA, with Clinton obviously DLC and Obama obviously DFA.  If Obama loses the general election (he's already the presumptive nominee), it will hurt the DFA a lot long term.  If he wins the general and is a good president (I know, lots of assumptions), the DLC will be on the way out.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 09:56AM | 0 recs
as Missouri and Ohio go...

so goes the White House.

by BlueDoggyDogg 2008-04-17 06:05PM | 0 recs
SUSA Electoral College

Based on all the most recent head-to-head polls in each state + DC as conducted by Survey USA:

Hillary: 292
McCain: 236
Tie: 10

Obama: 242
McCain: 296

by DaveOinSF 2008-04-17 06:09PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

My issue with the Massachusetts poll is that it shows McCain winning the African-American vote against Obama.  I think the likelihood of that occurring in November should Obama claim the party's nomination is extremely unlikely, regardless of how poorly Governor Patrick is performing.  I am assuming that Survey USA did not oversample African-Americans, which is a tactic I believe a pollster should do for a state such as Massachusetts that has a small, but not insignificant, African-American population that is almost seven percent.

by Blazers Edge 2008-04-17 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

"My issue with the Massachusetts poll is that it shows McCain winning the African-American vote against Obama"

Go ahead and make the black vote 98-2 for Obama in Massachusetts at 3% of projected turnout according to SUSA and see how little of a difference it makes.

Really. Try it.

It takes the race from 48-46 Obama to 49.7-44.3  

In other words, still statistically tied.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 08:09PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

why is obama doing so poorly in kentucky.  i can see how it's a clinton state, but he barely gets 30% against either clinton, or mccain.  what gives?

by Doug Tuttle 2008-04-17 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Bill Clinton won KY and WV in 1992 and 1996 - big DLC states, I think.

by bluestatedude 2008-04-17 09:23PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out
last time i checked, it is April....
people vote in November.
Hillary isn't going to win and we all know it.
Hillary's scorched earth attacks on Obama have metastasized into a media swiftboating/lynching of the candidate who won our nomination two months ago.  
The only question now is whether she's going to prolong this long enough to destroy the party that made her famous even as she destroys herself.
by joe in oklahoma 2008-04-17 06:27PM | 0 recs
Hillary isn't going to win and we all know it.

For the simple reason that she isn't going to be the nominee and we all know it.

But don't put it past her to pull a Lieberman.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 06:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary isn't going to win and we all know it.

She won't pull a lieberman.  

The angle I think a lot of you are not considering is Obama quiting.

If it becomes clear that Obama DEMOGRAPHICALLY cannot win, IE his support with whites, latinos, women is so poor that he cannot win the states that he would need to get to 270  he may quit.

Before you all howl, the electoral college is slanted towards Clinton in that she is likely to do better than him in the traditional states that are purple, ohio, penn, florida, michigan.  

For Obama to make up that deficit he needs to take offsetting states, colorado etc.  These states are largely known today.  If Obama slips in the demographics that make up these states its possible that he will be able to see that his isn't going to win.  That is likely what has got him rattled of late.  He is far too rattled for someone who has this all sown up.

IF and its a real IF Obama comes to realize he can't win then his political preservation is better served by being Hillary's VP so that if she loses he doesn't get the loser label and if he can get credit for being the bigger person and letting her steal the election he would be poised for next cycle.  Currently if he loses his political career is probably over as his change is a one time thing and he doesn't have any real accomplishments.

If and its still an IF Obama wanted to take the safe way this cycle in exchange for goodwill from the moderates for next time it will come in the rules committee.  He can throw the election by having his nominees vote Clinton's way on Michigan.  This would be seen as "stealing" the election but if he stood up and supported it his supporters may back the Clinton/Obama ticket and that would win BIG points with the Clinton supporters.

Next time with Blacks and women/grateful Clinton supporters and possibly with a VP on his resume he would be the frontrunner.  At this stage he has enough leverage that he could get STRONG support from the Clinton clan for next time.

I know you Obama supporters all hate it.  But from the Obama angle its actually  a pretty strong road to the presidency.  Obama could carry it off in such a manner as to gain respect from all concerned and greatly increase his base for next time.

But it hinges on three things, 1) that Obama can't win and 2) that Obama has advisors who can see he can't win  and 3)  Obama wants it bad enough to wait 8 years.

Politics is a strange and interesting game

=)

by DTaylor 2008-04-17 09:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary isn't going to win and we all know it.

So. How long have you lived on Fantasy Island?

I'm wondering, did they let you off, or did you have to escape?

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 10:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary isn't going to win and we all know it.

I think this is actually a really insightful post.  I hate the idea and I can't imagine any scenario where Obama would do it, but it's pretty interesting.  One possible monkey wrench:  If Clinton wins the election and is a bad/mediocre president, Obama would have a hard time ever winning in the future because he will be tied to her and people will blame him for putting her in the office.  

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 09:59AM | 0 recs
A credible poll.

Looks great for Clinton.

by gotalife 2008-04-17 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: A credible poll.

Only if sand castles in the air are real.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 06:49PM | 0 recs
Re: A credible poll.

Don't expect superdelegates to back a sure loser.
by killjoy 2008-04-17 07:41PM | 0 recs
Re: A credible poll.

That's why they've been going overwhelmingly for Obama since February.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 08:25PM | 0 recs
Doesn't look good for Sen. Obama

First, the caveats.  McCain's numbers will drop.  Several important states, including so-called Sen. Obama states, are not included in this roundup.  Finally, there are many changes sure to unsettle some of the current numbers.

With these caveats in mind, these numbers do not look promising for Sen. Obama.

The first reason these numbers are not particularly good for Obama is that those states where he outperforms Sen. Clinton against McCain, she essentially ties or is close to McCain.  For instance, he appears stronger in MN, WI, OR and IA.  But only IA represents a significant margin for Obama over McCain where McCain enjoys a significant advantage over Clinton. In other words, only in one state among this set does it appear that selecting Obama is a clear plus in a state where McCain appears poised to beat Clinton.

The second reason these numbers are not particularly good for Obama is that several states, especially VA, that he claimed to be able to put in play appear on these numbers to not be in play.

The third reason these numbers are not particularly good for Obama are the states he is likely to lose against McCain but where Clinton remains competitive: KY, MO, and NM.

The fourth reason these numbers are not particularly good for Obama are those states where he is behind or roughly equal with McCain, but Clinton appears to be much stronger and poised for victory: OH and MA (though I refuse to believe Obama would not carry that state).

To sum up:

1. Obama enjoys a significant relative lead in only one small state.  In states besides IA where Obama enjoys an advantage over McCain, Clinton remains competitive.

2. The relatively delegate-rich state of VA that his campaign has long stressed as his for the taking alone appears to be beyond reach with McCain on the ballot.

3. Obama is lagging behind McCain significantly in several states where Clinton remains competitive or slightly ahead.

4. In two states (OH & MA), it appears Obama faces a much greater battle or is tied with McCain while Clinton appears poised to cruise to victory.

We have all heard it before: No GOPer has ever secured the White House while losing OH.

Ohio.  Missouri.  Ballgame.

by Trond Jacobsen 2008-04-17 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Doesn't look good for Sen. Obama

Not if you lose WA and OR, and those are eminantly losable....

by LordMike 2008-04-17 07:56PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Scott Rasmussen, a somewhat respected Republican pollster who ranks third in terms of accuracy this primary season behind Survey USA and PPP, is a lot more favorable to Obama than Survey USA.  He shows Obama leading McCain in New Mexico, Nevada, and Iowa and tied with McCain in North Carolina in polls that he has released this month.  Rasmussen should be releasing a Colorado poll later this week.  I'm really interested in a Michigan poll from either Rasmussen or Survey USA.

Survey USA and Rasmussen are also conflicted as to Clinton's strength in Ohio.  She's trailing McCain by a little bit according to Rasmussen but seems to be destroying him in this poll.  Clinton seems to have her own "fifty-state" strategy.  Instead of Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, and North Carolina, her red-state pickup strategy besides Ohio and Florida include West Virginia, Arkansas, and surprisingly Missouri and even Kentucky (though this pickup seems similar to the prospects of Obama winning North Dakota).  She, along with Obama, also seems to have her sights set on Nevada and New Mexico.  Overall, the Survey USA poll numbers are extremely promising for Hillary.

by Blazers Edge 2008-04-17 06:45PM | 0 recs
This should be fun.

Breaking: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards to join the Colbert Report tonight

by gotalife 2008-04-17 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Hey you'all.  It is way too early to call this one, regardless of what the polls say.  It isn't going to be Hillary... that is a foregone conclusion, any way you care to do the delegate math.  She'd have to blow him out of the water, I mean really blow with 65% plus in each and every remaining primary and she still might not catch up.  Now the question is whether Obama can put the whole Blue/Red map up for grabs.  That's the strategy.  There are some awfully independent minded people in those Western states.  And the economy is hardly likely to get much better between now and November.  We may as well join the party.  And even get excited about the prospect.  Either the Obamamaniacs are on to something or they are all smoking something.  You have to admit, they ran a hell of a campaign.

by Annabella 2008-04-17 07:02PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I'm worried about the western states... Obama was doing much better there before... I don't think "bittergate" does anything, really, but his gun control comments at the debate may not have been the best for that area...

I was hoping for big pickups there, especially with congressional races...  That's disappointing...

by LordMike 2008-04-17 07:55PM | 0 recs
Look at the crosstabs

Look at the cross tabs. McCain's getting 30% Dems against Obama. He's only getting 15% against Clinton.

Take that for what you want but it seems pretty obvious it's Clinton supporters not willing to say that they'd vote for Obama. Once the nominee is final many will come around. At least I pray they will for the sake of this country.

4 more years of Bush/McCain is not acceptable.

by recusancy 2008-04-17 07:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Look at the crosstabs

And let me add that they were conducted over the weekend (Obama supporters tend to be younger ie. not home) and during the heat of the "bittergate" bs.

by recusancy 2008-04-17 07:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Look at the crosstabs

"4 more years of Bush/McCain is not acceptable."

Tell that to the rabid Obama clowns who are pushing Clinton supporters to their bitter corner.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 08:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Look at the crosstabs

I find it hard to believe that anyone is petty or stupid enough to vote for Bush's third term because they don't like some Obama bloggers.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 08:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Look at the crosstabs

It might be sad, but people like yourself, online, at work, on the air, may turn Clinton supporters off to Obama.  You do your candidate no favors by being an internet blowhard.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 11:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Look at the crosstabs

The handful of bitter stay homes and crossovers will find excuses for their irresponsibility. But blaming someone else is a tried and true favorite.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 11:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Look at the crosstabs

Perhaps, but you should try and show some class for your party and candidate, like Student Guy presents in his responses.  If you want a Democratic party victory in November, from state to federal levels, act inclusive to all Democrats, not just the ones who support your favorite.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 11:51PM | 0 recs
That's rich

coming from a serial TR abuser.

But I'm not trying sell Obama to anybody. And anybody who lets the opinions of others influence them certainly has a right to vote, but probably shouldn't. Flipping a coin would produce just as valid a decision.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-18 12:06AM | 0 recs
Re: That's rich

The other thing liberals don't realize is that they may find McCain to be this evil guy but his is just slightly more conservative than the bulk of the democratic party.

He is the most liberal major GOP figure.

For me a moderate he represents maybe a 10-15% move to the right from where I am comfortable and Obama maybe a 10-15% move to the left.

From where I stand McCain isn't the evil guy that the person for which Obama is 10-15% more conservative than them and McCain is 20-30% more conservative then them would imagine.

Talking about McCain like he eats live kittens doesn't do you any favors.

Talking about Roe V Wade is a much stronger case or other actual factual differences that others like me may respond to.

by DTaylor 2008-04-18 02:59AM | 0 recs
Re: That's rich

I'm one of those for whom Obama is, if anything, not quite liberal enough.  But I'm also pragmatic enough to know that no one as liberal as I want (Dean? Edwards? Sarkozy??) can win the presidency any time soon.  Hillary is 25% too conservative for me, and McCain is 50% too much.  Bush is 100% too much.

The one thing I am grateful for is the entire Republican party is going to change.  If McCain loses, they will hopefully have a hard time of it for many years.  If McCain wins, the Republicans will be moving more and more away from ultra-conservative positions.  I don't want McCain to win, but at least he's not Huckabee.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: That's rich

Sounds like you'll be voting for McBush, as is your right.

But that's why your opinions of Democrats have no validity.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-18 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

I wouldn't put much thought into these polls.  Our two candidates are at odds and driving their negatives up.  Of course, McSame is going to do better, he's not taking any hits.

by venavena 2008-04-17 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

That NM and CO result disappoints me... It seems this prolonged primary battle has done what it was expected to do--make both candidates unelectable...

I wonder who will get blamed when that happens?

by LordMike 2008-04-17 07:53PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Clinton has PA, OH, and FL so far.  How is that making her unelectable.

How is Obama unelectable?

Stop being a fatalist.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Liberal Avenger - Why was this post troll rated?

If you can not be mature and have personal problems with one individual, please discuss it out thru comments or stay away from blogging. At the very least, stop troll rating for good comments.

Mojo rated for implying both our candidates are electable.

by Sandeep 2008-04-18 05:08AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Clinton has PA, OH, and FL so far.  How is that making her unelectable.

How is Obama unelectable?

Stop being a fatalist.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

"Stop being a fatalist."

I'm a democrat!  It's what I do! ;-)

by LordMike 2008-04-17 08:20PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

It's like being a Bills' fan... :-)

by reggie44pride 2008-04-17 08:26PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Worse... I'm a Browns fan... and an Indians fan... and a Cavs fan... oy!  I need some tums!

by LordMike 2008-04-17 08:29PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Arguing about poll numbers 7 months before an election brings to mind the Middle Ages when learned scholars would convene to determine how many angels could stand on the head of a pin.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-04-17 08:28PM | 0 recs
These numbers give support to what i wrote in my

dairy yesterday. Please read it and let us start a dynamic to crush the voices of division because they won't help us to get a democrat in the WH

here is the link:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/4/17/1652 22/635

by likelihood zero 2008-04-17 08:34PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Does anybody on this entire blog realize how useless GE polls seven months prior to the GE?

by nklein 2008-04-17 11:10PM | 0 recs
McCain 3 Trillion Tax Cut

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2 0601070&sid=aFSl0vU5t7J8&refer=h ome

EXCERPT

McCain Plans for $3.3 Trillion Tax Cut, Balanced Budget at Odds

by dearreader 2008-04-18 02:16AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Up way too early..
shots fired at crack house down the block..oh well.

As was stated above...
It is a side show to include any poll dealing with a candidate who will not be our nominee. They might as well include Edwards or Dennis K.
Clinton's position at this time is indeed a Castle in the sand...as is of course McCains

Tap yer toes...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF4-r2MpR Ms  

by nogo war 2008-04-18 03:00AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out

Oh yeah..here in CO?
Republicans and Independant Republican leaner's are all "Balls to the Wall" on immigration. No way they come out heavy for McCain. The Republican Candidate for Senate, Schaffer, is going down in flames..(look for a Udall pick-up)

Colorado is one of the top States hit by foreclosures. We have a Dem Gov.
Obama will carry CO

by nogo war 2008-04-18 04:27AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 New SurveyUSA statewide GE polls out
Almost impossible to win w/out Florida and Ohio.
Wake up America!
by darlene25 2008-04-18 06:34AM | 0 recs
Obama cannot win

The polls at this point mean nothing. The fact is that Obama is a flaming liberal and they always get crushed in GEs. He is also a snobby elitist, untested and touchy when criticized (he likes to whine rather than fight), and he's scarily "other" (black, Muslin, unpatriotic, etc.). Some of this is actually true, some of it is fodder for rightwing smears. All of it spells total and complete doom.

by doyenne49 2008-04-18 07:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama cannot win

Yeah, and Republicans love Hillary.

/snark

by ProgressiveDL 2008-04-18 10:06AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads