SUSA: Clinton Holds 16-Point Lead in Indiana
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 01:02:06 PM EDT
According to SurveyUSA, Indiana is looking a bit like Clinton country at this juncture.
Hillary Clinton: 55 percent (52 percent in March)
Barack Obama: 39 percent (43 percent in March)
Here's where the movement is occurring: Among men, Obama had trailed by 2, now trails by 12, a 10-point swing to Clinton. In greater Indianapolis, Obama had led by 12, now trails by 1, a 13-point swing to Clinton. Among Democrats, Obama had trailed by 12, now trails by 27, a 15-point swing to Clinton. Among voters focused on health care, Clinton had led by 10, now leads by 30, a 20-point swing to Clinton. Among the youngest voters, Obama had led by 19, now trails by 2, a 21-point swing to Clinton.
The SUSA poll was in the field Friday through Sunday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. As a result, the movement in the poll was not statistically significant. What's more, there hasn't been enough polling conducted in the state (at least public polling) for either Pollster.com or Real Clear Politics to develop a trend estimate or simple average. Accordingly, it would probably be sound policy to wait just a tad to see if this trend is statistical noise or real.
That said, Hillary Clinton has led in each of the four recent Indiana polls (conducted since the end of March), with her advantage over Barack Obama ranging from 3 points (statistically insignificant) in a Research 2000 poll to 16 points in this current SUSA poll. For what it's worth, a simple average of the four polls puts Clinton up 52.3 percent to 43.0 percent, a decent baseline lead. Where the race in the Hoosier state will move from there still remains to be seen, however.