Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes To The Convention?

The Democratic primary season continues on without a nominee in sight, while Republicans have a nominee in John McCain. Most people I've talked to are split on whether a long primary season for the Democrats will hurt the eventual nominee's chances in the general.

On the one hand, there are those that believe that a vigorous internal debate within the Democratic party - with more primary voters getting a chance to weigh in - will strengthen the party as a whole. And of course, as kos pointed out, the continued primary makes it hard for John McCain to get any press.

On the other hand, while Clinton and Obama spend millions on media attacking each other, McCain can quietly consolidate the Republican base, plan his campaign, fundraise, and get his ground game started. When we do have a nominee, they will be starting off weeks or months behind.

Of course, I'm not comfortable calling for either candidate to withdraw before they have locked up the nomination, but the question of whether a drawn-out primary is good for the Democratic party is an important one. To get some perspective, I examined the primaries of both parties for Presidential elections going back to 1972. I was specifically looking for information on when candidates from each party locked up their respective nominations and how they fared in the general election afterwards.

Using Wikipedia and FEC sources, here's what I found:

Year Democratic Candidate Primary Situation Republican Candidate Primary Situation General Winner
1972George McGovernNomination wrapped up mid-springRichard Nixon (incumbent)Nomination wrapped up earlyNixon (R)
1976Jimmy CarterNomination wrapped up earlyGerald FordNomination goes to Republican ConventionCarter (D)
1980Jimmy Carter (incumbent)Nomination goes to Democratic ConventionRonald ReaganNomination wrapped up earlyReagan (R)
1984Walter MondaleNomination wrapped up in JuneRonald Reagan (incumbent)Uncontested primaryReagan (R)
1988Michael DukakisNomination goes to Democratic ConventionGeorge H.W. BushNomination wrapped up after Super TuesdayBush (R)
1992Bill ClintonNomination wrapped up in early AprilGeorge H.W. BushNomination wrapped up earlyClinton (D)
1996Bill Clinton (incumbent)Uncontested primaryBob DoleNomination wrapped up earlyClinton (D)
2000Al GoreNomination wrapped up March 9thGeorge W. BushNomination wrapped up March 14thBush (R)
2004John KerryNomination wrapped up March 11thGeorge W. Bush (incumbent)Uncontested primaryBush (R)

Obviously there are a ton of factors that go into elections. It's impossible to say any correlation noticed in the above chart means those factors caused a specific outcome. And while it's hard to divine any specific pattern with respect to when each party locks up their respective nominations and its effect on the general, one thing is clear: Since 1972, when a party has let their primary go on until the convention, they have lost 100% of the time. Even when the primary was relatively open on both sides with no incumbent running - as it 1976 and 1988 - the party that let their fight go on until the convention lost.

I fall into the pro-democracy camp. I think it's good that more people get to participate in the process. Indeed, they've responded to that opportunity with enthusiasm - turnout numbers are off the charts. I feel good about the primary process continuing - even though personally I'm getting sick of the media coverage. However, I'm not OK with this thing going until the convention. If history is our guide, we'll be at a distinct disadvantage if we don't have a nominee by the time the party convenes this summer.

Hopefully, we as a party will find a way to end this process before then. Otherwise, I'd be worried.

Tags: 2008 election, Democrats (all tags)

Comments

175 Comments

BRAVO!

Best front page diary of the month!

by Walt Starr 2008-03-08 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: BRAVO!

yep.  obviously, clinton should drop out.  she can't win.  All she can do is destroy the party.

by thereisnospoon 2008-03-08 05:50PM | 0 recs
Heading out shortly

Can't respond to comments until tomorrow, but I'll be back later to get at em.

by J Ro 2008-03-08 02:09PM | 0 recs
I feel good about it...

If Hillary's camp stops talking up McCain and stops spewing the Republican talking points.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Too bad elections aren't won by the popular vote.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Actually they may be. A poll today had most democratic voters (I think around 60%) saying SDs should vote by popular vote, not pledged delegates. So it may very well be decided by popular vote. Remember democrats are still angry at 2000 results where Al Gore won the popular vote.

Granted this may still be Sen Obama, but more likely Sen Clinton will hold the popular vote lead at the end of this process.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I've always thought (even before this was an issue) that the super-delegates should vote as their state votes.

I don't want my representatives voting based on what another state wants.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

no, she really won't.

by thereisnospoon 2008-03-08 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Hey, we'll see, no point having a pointless back and forth.

You forget that MI and FL will be seated or revoted.

by Marvin42 2008-03-09 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I remember Florida all to well.

I don't care what Bush wants me to believe; I believe in fact.

In primaries, delegates count.  In generals, the electoral college counts.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Are you completely insane?  BTW, Obama said today that he will not accept VP slot.  You Clintonistas are totally unhinged.

by Carlo 2008-03-08 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

First: please don't call supporters of a candidate names or insane.

Second: if you read carefully he didn't say that. He is trying to (correctly) shut down any talk of him being VP, as he has a very good shot at being at the top of the ticket. But it may not be in his best political interest to refuse VP if it comes down to that.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I disagree. I believe Hillary will almost need Obama as the VP choice IF she gets the nomination. He has brought enthusiasm and this party split will have to be healed.

And honestly I think he is an excellent campaigner.

And finally I believe it would almost guarantee a 16 year lock on the white house for democrats.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Obama may be a better campaigner if not the VP...of course we still don't know who's at the top of the ticket, but it's hard to see him working his "magic" from the VP position. I certainly don't see him fulfilling the traditional attack-dog role...if he doesn't get the nomination, he may want to shift gears and run for Governor of IL in two years.

by Alice in Florida 2008-03-08 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Listen, I don't spend a second listening to what Limbaugh says. Remember this is the guy who called Chelsea Clinton "the white house dog."

The republicans will try to tear either down. I think the two on one ticket will really be a quandary for them. I mean attack them as Rush tried to do and you may just swing large portion of moderate and republicans into voting for them.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 04:50PM | 0 recs
The media is having a good time -

while being paid by the candidates.

If the public were actually learning about the candidates' positions - McCain's vs. Hillary & Obama - a longer primary could be instructive.
But the media basically focuses on the horse race - and intentionally creates more conflict between H & O to rachet up ratings.

by annefrank 2008-03-08 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

There will be /Obama part of that ticket.  Absorb the reality of this fact.  I know it is painful.  Prepare to get beaten in Mississippi as well.  Hillary endorsing McCain over the eventual nominee will have to be apologized for profusely.  You need us, but we don't need you.  

The media blows in the wind back and forth. The reality of your losing position remains unchanged.  Maybe Clinton can be McCain's VP.

Wake up!

by Carlo 2008-03-08 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

Insert "no" before the "/Obama"

by Carlo 2008-03-08 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

Who is us? Who is you? You realize we are all in the same party and really have the same overall goals right? Its not a football game. Its politics.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:25PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

then why the hell is Clinton tearing apart Obama claiming McCain is more experienced than him?

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

yes tearing a fellow democrat is a sound bite, glad to know you would eat your own

/simply disgusting

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:35PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

And you honestly don't think the Obama camp is doing the same? They keep saying she is the past, imply there are "scandals" and now they have a senior advisor calling her a "Monster."

This is real campaigning folks, and honestly both candidates are NOWHERE near negative territory. And nothing like the republicans will throw at either (or both) in the fall.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 04:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

---
 They keep saying she is the past, imply there are "scandals"
---
Yes, that is to be expected.  

Building up the current Republican opponent is not.  Clinton has stepped over the line.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 08:09PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

Really, tearing her down because "it is to be expected" is ok? Sorry I am trying to have a reasoned discussion here. How is it different?

by Marvin42 2008-03-09 07:21AM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

What a pile of crap you spew here.

This is all over Air America Radio, KO, the blogs...

And it will come back to haunt us when Republicans start replaying Hillary's comments in the general.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:36PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

I am an Obama supporter, but if that's the best you can do to support your candidate/oppose Hillary Clinton it is pretty poor.  With friends like some of the Obama supporters here, who needs enemies.

by mady 2008-03-08 04:38PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

As if posting a few bits on this blog is the best I can do...

LOL

This is such a miniscual part of reality.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 08:10PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

Sorry we cannot move on. She needs to explain what she meant by that and why she said it.

by poserM 2008-03-08 08:16PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

I will clarify it for you.  Obama does not need Clinton as the VP candidate.  Clinton desperately wants Obama as the VP candidate so she could subsume his voting bloc.  Obama stated in Wyoming that he will not be accepting the VP slot.  

This is the hard reality.  After the insults thrown his way in the past week and Clinton's endorsement of McCain's so-called "national security experience", there will no political suicide on Obama's part by accepting the VP slot thereby accepting his own political oblivion.

The gall of the Clinton camp acting as if they are in the driver's seat when the aren't is just disturbing.  Unless campaigning for the Repug opponent and ignoring the tenets of Democracy are now the platform of the party.

by Carlo 2008-03-08 02:37PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

I disagree. The way things are going, the polarization that now happening with Hillary supporters (party due to some of the Obama supporter manner and tone) I think they both need the other. Either one alone may lose too much of the supporters to effectively compete against McCain.

Whether you like it or not a lot of woman are offended by how Hillary is treated. And woman vote more than men.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 04:44PM | 0 recs
Re: The media is having a good time -

Obama doesn't need Clinton?  Without Clinton Obama has no resume to support him as CIC,he has no experience in the federal government at all. Geez!  Obama needs Clinton to show him where the bathrooms are for  god's sake.  Really what does Obama know except how to be a candidate?

by democrat voter 2008-03-09 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: What's the Solution?

Ok I say a serious game or rock-paper-scissors, the winner is the top of the ticket! :)

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: What's the Solution?

You know, it may come down to that...

by Alice in Florida 2008-03-08 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: What's the Solution?

why rock-paper-scissors when one candidate is leading in the only measure that counts? it's not like they are tied.

by poserM 2008-03-08 08:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

All the HRC supporters don't care about that!

For them it is about the cult of HRC and demonization of BO. Clinton would lose in the fall by 50-75 electoral votes, but somehow all these supposedly progressive activists on this site can think about is trying to replicate Democratic mistakes of the last 16 years. Despite knowing somewhere deep down that trying to win 50%+1 is a terible idea, they want to run a campaign where Florida and Ohio decide the race by 1% again.

HRC in 2012!!!! HRC hopes to damage Obama enough that McCain wins in the fall, which is clearly HRC goal at this point, even if all the HRC supporters on this website don't realize it yet.

Wake up!

by andrewbellinger 2008-03-08 02:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

In all honesty, as a Clinton supporter, I believe exactly the opposite. Not the part about demonization, but I do think a portion of Obama supporters border on being a cult (no offense intended).

Also my primary problem with Sen Obama as a candidate is not him, his positions or his message. It is simply that I believe he will be eaten alive in the GE by the republican machine. And its not about electoral votes, major states, etc.

So I think what you have is two competing views of what may happen, and neither side can prove what will happen in the future.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Funny we think the same about you; I mean how can a moral honest person stand behind the scandal clad Clintons?  There are people who lived in this country in the 90's and remember the disgusting things they did while in office.  

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Really? What disgusting things? Are you talking about his personal indiscretion? When did we democrats become the moral police? Or have you bought into the republican smears of the Clintons?

I don't judge people based on what they do in private, I leave that for republicans.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Obviously, you have forgotten about Mark Rich, pardons with Hillary's brothers, McDougal, their finance controversy with communist China

need I go on?

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Hahaha you want to bring up Rezko and his pastor?

I am surprised you haven't brought up Michelle's gynecologists opinion about global warming!

/Seriously his pastor?  Is that all you got?

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Obama has no connection to Farrakhan.  He has rejected and renounced, so to speak.  He has made some excellent speeches about how the Black community should remember the contributions of Jews to the civil rights movement.  He had decried racism, antisemitism, sexism.  He is passionate about reacting to genocide wherever it occurs (something the Clintons messed up on with hideous consequences).  I am a Jew and my family and I feel totally comfortable with Obama and support him.  

by mady 2008-03-08 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Right, Obama objects to genocide.


Well, when the focus on Farrakhan and Wright starts to shift towards Obama's support of Odinga and Kenya (and towards Obama's words about how the Jews were mostly responsible for the Israel/Palestine conflict), you get back to us.
by BrandingIron17 2008-03-09 03:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

It is not a problem, Obama has REJECTED and DENOUNCED Farrakhan and the majority of people understand this and if we are going to judge Obama by his pastor, then I will have to stop going to church because my pastor and I do not agree on a majority of issues.

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Not to mention the fact that Jewish Americans are 2% of the electorate. About the same as Muslim Americans, slightly more than Arab-Americans.

The reason Jewish Americans have great importance to the democratic party, besides their long and storied history with the party, and contributing many important leaders and thinkers to its ranks, has much to do with the importance of Jewish Americans in democratic fundraising. And the rise of the internet seems to make that less important.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

No, you really should take a deep breathe and again remember: these are people who have done a lot for the democratic party. They are NOT the enemy. You may strongly favor Sen Obama, more power to you. And he is still the favored candidate to get this thing.  But there is no reason to demonize "the other." Specially in light of what you own preferred candidate has chosen as his approach to politics.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 04:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

"friendship with Tony Rezko"

What's wrong with being friends with a Tony Rezko? Assuming he did commit a crime, what wrong with being friends with a criminal? Are criminals not allowed to have friends? Why don't you tell us what it is that is illegal that he did instead of suggesting, however vaguely, that he's friends with a potential criminal and making insinuations?

by poserM 2008-03-08 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: People mysteriously died..

Please be serious. People here are complaining about Clinton ads, yet here you are rehashing a list of false right wing propaganda.

Again, reminder, democrats are SUPPOSED to be different.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: People mysteriously died..
Ugh... RW talking points. Freeperville is this way if you're looking for someone to chat about Foster with.
by sricki 2008-03-08 08:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

like what?

by annefrank 2008-03-08 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I wonder how Mark Rich is doing these days?

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes
At the very least, you could try to spell his name right.
by sricki 2008-03-08 08:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Completely disassociated from reality once again.  Obama is cruising to the nomination and you don't even notice it.  

BTW, if Obama has a cult following, I would characterize Clinton's as that of a coven!

by Carlo 2008-03-08 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Seriously, read the post, notice the tone is not hostile. There is no need for insults.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Apparently you've been influenced by Obama's "claws" remark about Hillary.

by annefrank 2008-03-08 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Jeez, I forgot all about that, but thank you for reminding me.  My respect for him went up another .1%.

by Carlo 2008-03-08 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I don't give a damn that either side may be cult-like.

What pisses me off is Hillary has crossed the line several times, building up McCain to tear down Obama, and giving the Republicans sound-bites in the mean-time.

She needs to issue a series of apologies.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I don't think a man that orchestrated Democrats picking up a House seat in Illinois for the first time since 1974 is going to let himself be "eaten alive" by Republicans.

by Toddwell 2008-03-08 07:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

What the hell are you smoking?  Obama has won 28 out of 42 states; he has the most pledged delegates and popular vote so far.  There is no way the winner of IO,ME,CO,ND,KS,ID,AK,MN,NB,HA,WY,SC,DE,C T,MI,UT,LA,VA,DC,WS,AL,GA,IL,MD,VT, is stepping down, nor should he.  I understand he doesn't have a vagina, but rational people don't vote based on race or gender, they vote based on elect ability.  What the SUSA polls show us, Obama is the best bet.  With her negatives in the high 40's and independent and republicans who vehemently hate her, Obama has nothing to worry about.  

Clinton disgusts me when she said McCain is a better candidate than Obama.  This proves the woman is shameless and would rather risk destroying the party so she can fill her ego.  

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Is that you Mark Rich?

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Again, Hillary supporters argue that Democrats is small states don't count.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Like I said earlier, popular vote doesn't count.  Delegates in primaries and electors in the general.

How many times do I have to keep telling Hillary supporters this?

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 03:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

And the irony is, that get all bent out of shape over open primaries. If they care so deeply about what primary results imply for the general (and hence red states don't count) perhaps they can tell us how many states in the GE will vote on a ballot open only to democrats? Please.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

KS, IA, and CO could easily flip this year.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-08 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Just to clarify, are you defending your flop of a comment by calling another poster a "reject" (see the guidelines) or is that something in your software trying to stop yet another trashy, illogical rant?

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I agree that there is no way Obama is stepping down.  Especially not after he was able to help Democrats pick up a House seat they have not held since 1974.

by Toddwell 2008-03-08 07:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Did you all see the McLaughlin Group this weekend? By June there many not be much left of Obama..... The press haven't begun to look at his background.

by georgiast 2008-03-09 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Umm, once again you are painfully mistaken. AL, MS, GA and Va are states that have conservatives that might stay home if McCain is the winner. They also are states that Obama  bought out HUGE new voters.

Hillary did not win convincingly in ANY state except OH that may go Blue in November. PA hasn't happened yet and FL is a undetermined.
And you still are making the classic mistake of thinking that anybody that voted for Hillary won't vote for Obama. Remember, once the CLinton supporters start thinking about MCcain and the Supreme Court justices, they will stick with the party.

by xodus1914 2008-03-08 08:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Florida poll - Hillary 55 - Obama 39

>>>>Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Obama voters say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Clinton if she is the nominee......

while 20% (Clinton voters) say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Obama if he is the nominee.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/florida/election_2008_flor ida_democratic_primary

by annefrank 2008-03-08 02:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Good thing Florida is only worth so much.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

50 states is where it is at.  We, as Democrats, need to try to compete in every state.  If we do not, then a loss like Florida due to demographics can be a tragedy.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 03:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

All these polls mean nothing right now except for swaying some SDs. The thing to watch out for is whether any ugly shoes drop for Democrats btwn now and the GE. I have a sick feeling that republicans
have their play book ready for either Hillary or Barrack.

This intra-party fight reminds of a fable about two deers that were  so busy fighting for territorial supremacy that they failed to see themselves surrounded by wolves.  

by Actright 2008-03-08 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

No Democrat will carry Florida in the general.  The growth zones are way too rapidly Republican.  

by Toddwell 2008-03-08 07:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

So it's OK to throw away blacks, men, youth, AND INDEPENDENTS.

What a pile of crap.

Fact is, most Republicans I know are planning to cross over for Obama.  They will not cross-over for Hillary.  They will go out of their way to vote AGAINST Hillary.

Universal, your arguments here hint at a little racism.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

hahahah Universal is the new internet tough guy!

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

If you're waiting around for someone to get nervous because you're frothing at the mouth at being called out for racism (you weren't, actually, being called a racist, but by protesting too much, you've effectively brought that label down on yourself) you're going to be disappointed.

Your assertions are without merit, and the claim (which is flatly contradicted by the polls) that whites won't vote for Obama does smack of racism. Deal.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

--
Don't EVER waste my time again, or challenge me on my facts
--

I'll do whatever the hell I feel like.

--
Direct link to the page of the Pew Poll
--
Let's see what that says exactly...

"One-in-five white Democrats (20%) say that they will vote for McCain over Obama, double the percentage who say they would switch sides in a Clinton-McCain matchup (10%)."

Funny that you don't mention the flip-side.

Wonder what the accuracy of that statistic?

Why is pew even asking the question or checking the metric?  Does it really matter?

And this doesn't even address how many independents will be brought in by Obama or spurned by Hillary.

I want to know what percentage of ALL AMERICANS will flip, not some racial subset.

So yes, your argument smacks as racism.

And you are an idiot.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 03:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

You just got schooled there, Uni. You were caught with your hand in the cookie jar, distorting the facts. The reality? In the poll, Obama gets 42% of whites to McCain's 50%. Clinton gets 44% to 51%. The difference in 1%, within the margin of error.

Not a good night for you, Uni. You were caught lying, you panicked when confronted, and embarrassed yourself with a whole bunch of posturing and whining that made you look like an impotent fool. Maybe you should spend some time in a writing class, learn how to construct an argument. It's almost too easy to take you apart.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

You just got schooled there, Uni. You were caught with your hand in the cookie jar, distorting the facts. The reality? In the poll, Obama gets 42% of whites to McCain's 50%. Clinton gets 44% to 51%. The difference in 1%, within the margin of error.

Not a good night for you, Uni. You were caught lying, you panicked when confronted, and embarrassed yourself with a whole bunch of posturing and whining that made you look like an impotent fool. Maybe you should spend some time in a writing class, learn how to construct an argument. It's almost too easy to take you apart.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Still presenting only half the data Uni?  Sad sad sad.

by Timetheos 2008-03-09 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

It gets better. The poll has no numbers for Hispanic voters, Asians, or any other ethnicity -- crosstabs say "white" and "black." Thus, besides the unsurprising fact that most AA Clinton supporters would switch to Obama, we know no more than we did by looking at the MyDD rec list: that a good number of Clinton supporters hate Obama far more than they like Clinton. There is no reason to think that that is a function of their being white, since white independents overwhelmingly favor Barack. It's just Clinton supporters in general being themselves.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-09 10:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Yep, the only crap I know about you is what you post here, which has so far hinted at racism.

Not playing a card; stating fact.

Now, how have I constantly resorted to the 'racism' card.  Please, list all the posts!

You won't and you can't  because I have only mentioned it in one post because of YOUR ACTIONS.

Go ahead and throw me in the 3rd row you crapless wonder.

I know enough about your posts here to know you are an idiot.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Can I ask, purely in the interests of knowing, would you vote for Obama against McCain?

p.s. I don't think you're a racist =)

by LiberalFL 2008-03-08 03:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I get it. Im an Obama supporter, and they make me a little nutty too.

Lots of us are really good people tho! =)

by LiberalFL 2008-03-08 04:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I didn't say you were racist but that your argument was.

--
Bring your 'A' game or go home
--
I don't need to do crap.  I'll do whatever the hell I want.

Again, please point out all the posts where I used racism!  I dare you!

--
Uh-uh. Sorry. This isn't MSNBC and you're not Jesse Jackson, Jr. and I'm not some chump who's going to fall for the 'analyzing Katrina tears' garbage.
--

When did I ever say it was?  Think I give a damn about MSNBC?  Only thing OK on there is KO and RMaddow.  Don't give a damn about JJJr. either.

Why the hell do you even bring them up?  What do they possibly add to this conversation?

You are the when trying to segment the vote based on race, and making assumptions on how races will vote for/against certain candidates, not I.

You doth protest too much.

I didn't say you were a racist, but an idiot, and every post you've responded with proves it.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 03:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

You do realize you are exchanging messages on an internet forum, right?

Your writing, and your reasoning, is neither hard, nor strong, nor focused. Perhaps you, in person, are strong or intimidating on some level. We wouldn't know. But the overall impression created by your statements here is not of a strong, focused person. Quite the opposite.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

There is a difference between saying a statement hints at racism and saying that the person you are talking to is a racist. It's the difference between saying an argument is dumb and calling a person a retard.

You're stepping over dozens of uncalled-for personal insults by Clinton supporters to pounce on something the other side said. That's not what the rating system is for.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Sorry, you're wrong, and by not providing any facts or evidence, you're effectively admitting that you lied.

I don't know if you're a bigot. Your panic and whining at a mild, and factual criticism certainly suggests you are. I do know that you can't put up a simple one-paragraph post without  desperately adding random insults and crowing over your embarrassing failures of logic and language as if you had accomplished something.

If this were basketball, that "first step" of yours would have you on the ground. Not because I checked you -- you don't play in my league. Because you tripped over your own shoelaces. Sad.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 04:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I just don't get these rabid Hillary supporters EMTP.

The go out of their way to obscure and bend facts and data to the point that they either look absurd or worse.

They shouldn't try to quote some obscure element of a poll, hide half the data, use an element that is based on race, try to apply that racial element to a general conclusion, and then not expect any blowback.  

And when they get negative feedback for pulling the stunts, they start getting hostile. They talk like they can cause me real harm on the inter-tubes. lol  I'm just trembling...  Maybe Uni's going to pull a Ring and step out of the monitor.

Well Uni, you got served.  Butters even did his dance.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Obama and Clinton garner equal support from white votes vs. McCain. Seven vs. eight points, within the margin of error. 20% of Hillary supporters say they won't vote for Obama. That's secondary to the fact that she's an inferior candidate, and a substantial number of her supporters are not voting FOR her, but rather AGAINST Obama. It's not because you're white, it's because you're anti-Obama.

In short, you lied and got caught. Also, you lied in such a way to suggest that Obama's support can predominately from blacks and whites would not support him. That's a racist myth that has been throughly debunked.

I'm glad you aren't going to waste any more time peddling your racist lies here. It will only get you pwnd, repeatly, just as it has here. Bye!

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-09 09:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Okay, let me get this straight.  

Obama is pulling 80% of the AA vote and Clinton is beating Obama in the female vote by between 5 and 10% depending on the state...and you think those are equal?

Clinton has a slight edge over Obama in female voters.  Obama has a slight edge over Clinton in male voters.

I'll tell you what's significant...Obama has a slight edge over Clinton overall.  He's beating her.  

by GFORD 2008-03-08 03:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Here's something you may not be aware of.  We women vote based on who we think is the best candidate...but there is not some secret club where we decide en masse who that will be...each woman decides for herself.  I choose Obama.

by GFORD 2008-03-08 04:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

From what I've read, Obama does attract more Republican crossover, but also more Democrats  crossover to McCain. Hillary is Democratic establishment candidate, so she has little crossover either way. Hence, it could be a    wash but I have not studied the numbers.

I will say this. The Republicans are our enemy - not fellow Democratic candidates or voters. I worry this contest will go all the way to the convention. We tear each other up while the Republicans gain in the polls.

I will say this. If we can't win this election, the Democratic Party may as well disband and start over. We have an unpopular war. The vast majority of Americans have lost ground due to eight years of trickle down economics. How could they win?  But they seem to win elections they shouldn't.

by mndemocrat 2008-03-09 08:51AM | 0 recs
Not sure who will end up at head of the ticket

But I still have yet, in the several months that I've posted on here, to see an explanation of how it is that Hillary is going to beat McCain among independents. No one wins the presidency by only winning his/her base.

One thing we know for sure is that Hillary as nominee will energize the GOP - McCain may not even have to veer completely to the right in order to get their votes.

by highgrade 2008-03-08 02:41PM | 0 recs
Umm!?

You do realize Hillary is tied with McCain now? Kicking his butt in the electoral college. Obama is trailing Hillary and McCain within the margin of error.

by ineedalife 2008-03-08 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Umm!?

Would you please elaborate your logic here?  I'm having a hard time following your argument.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Umm!?

The poster said they were wondering for months how independent voters sort between Hillary and McCain. The tone of the post implied to me that the poster felt Hillary was trailing McCain badly. In light of the current tracking polls having them tied I do not think that is concern.

by ineedalife 2008-03-08 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Umm!?

Source, please.

Obama is ahead in every electoral vote analysis I've seen.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Umm!?

Rasmussen daily tracking poll.

by ineedalife 2008-03-08 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Umm!?

Obama and Hillary both kill McCain in current electoral projections. Obama is up 4 points. In the current daily tracking poll I think he trails.

by ineedalife 2008-03-08 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Not sure who will end up at head of the ticket

So, whereas Barack Obama's attracting independents based on his message and his established ability to work together with people of the other party, Hillary Clinton will depend on her being the "female" candidate.

Yet another way that Hillary Clinton's the anti-feminist candidate - so far her previous betrayals of feminism mainly consisted of the way she achieved national fame by being married to a famous man, and the way she supported the man that was requesting sexual favours from his female employees.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-03-08 03:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Hillary/Obama 2008- not a snowball's chance in hell.

by Carlo 2008-03-08 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I don't know if this is pointed out earlier in the thread but not only has no candidate won after having the nomination go to the convention only twice has the party that locked up its nomination last been victorious (and in one of those cases it was only by 5 days.)

by JDF 2008-03-08 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

That was the original point I was looking to explore. Unfortunately, I don't think there are enough data points to really say that when a party locks up the nomination first, they win. There just aren't enough good races to examine (too many with incumbents, too many locked up around the same time, etc...).

by J Ro 2008-03-09 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem

Not sure your table really says anything.  Dems have lost a lot of presidentials in the past forty years.  Only two times did the primary go to convention.  You could look at the fact that they went to convention as indicative of not having a strong candidate.  Dukakis was a weak candidate--Hart was favored until he had to drop out over an affair.  Carter got demolished by the media for over the hostage thing--for an incumbent to be chosen as nominee so late is striking.  I'm surprised I didn't remember that.  On the Republican side--Gerald Ford was a weak candidate.  He was associated with Nixon and hadn't been elected in the first place.  I'd say that the nomination going all the way to convention, if it happens, doesn't mean much one way or the other.  Both Democratic candidates are strong; McCain is pretty weak.

Something people keep forgetting is that the sooner one of the Democratic candidates wraps up the nomination, the sooner the Republican hit machine goes into full attack mode via MSNBC, Fox Noise, etc.  Right now they're unsure who to take aim at, and both candidates get relatively neutral coverage, relative to what they'll spew at the presumptive nominee.

by hearthmoon 2008-03-08 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem

I wouldn't exactly characterize MSNBC as wholly part of the Republican attack machine.

Also, I think this entire national security debate is misplaced, given the other myriad problems the country right now.  McCain will have no acceptable answers on the economy, healthcare, etc. etc.  People are more afraid of what the Repugs will do to them at this point than a terrorist attack.  And their "abilities" to deal with national security are    beyond any rationality.

Making Clinton's recent descent into madness even that more disturbing.  She should ask Lieberman for pointers.  A briefing from Huckabee would be useful as well, as she is becoming a Lieberman/Huckabee style of candidate.

She thinks the party is hers and hers alone and no one else gets to lead it.  On this point she is beyond mistaken.

by Carlo 2008-03-08 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem

Carlo, you are spot on.

I was an Edwards supporter.  When he pulled out, I was 55/45 Obama.  Didn't really care too much which one.

But she and her camp have gone too far: warming up to McCain, using Republican tactics, ...

She shouldn't be playing the fear card; her adverts should be working against the fear card.

Her last bit about Commander-In-Cheif finally sent me firmly into the Obama camp.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem

I was Dodd and then Edwards myself.  :)

by Carlo 2008-03-08 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem

Absolutely good points. The weak candidate argument especially. I will be the first to say that correlation does not mean causation. There are simply too many variables and too few races to look at. Still, I do believe it's worth our time to understand the history, for what it's worth.

by J Ro 2008-03-09 11:58AM | 0 recs
Are you kidding me?

I'm scheduling my vacation at the beach around watching the convention the last week so I can stay up all night if I have to. I'm hoping for an all-out food fight.

by JimR 2008-03-08 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Are you kidding me?

hell ya FOOD FIGHT!

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 03:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

You're making some very strange assumptions here, that groups that are overwhelmingly Democratic will suddenly jump over to te GOP?  Nonsense. Plus Obama will bring out young people and independents who see promise in him and enlarge and strengthen our base.

by mady 2008-03-08 02:57PM | 0 recs
You make a compelling case for...

Obama to drop out now. (Just Joking)

Looking at your analysis the scary thing that jumps out at you is that races that go to the convention are  marked by a field of weak candidates.

Ford - Nixon pardon, thus doomed.

Carter - hobbled by inability to end Iran hostage crisis. Couldn't deal with stagflation.

Dukakis - couldn't show passion when asked what he would do if his wife was raped. Tank photo.

Neither of those candidates' problems were the result of strategic disadvantages from a late start. They were inherent weaknesses. Tragic flaws.

This makes me wonder what tragic flaws we are overlooking in our current candidates. The general election is an entirely different battlefield than the primary.

by ineedalife 2008-03-08 03:01PM | 0 recs
Re: You make a compelling case for...

The flaw is that both Obama and Clinton will have given McCain enough video clips, gaffes, and dirt that neither Democrat will be viable. If Clinton doesn't win North Carolina and Indiana, then  she should either drop out or start running a Huckabee campaign.

by carbocation 2008-03-08 03:06PM | 0 recs
Pathetic

Did you read the post? I am stating that the fates of Carter, Ford, and Dukakis were not the result of something the extended race did to them but due to their own flaws. And the flip side, those flaws lead to the extended race. There is no shortage of video clips, gaffes, and dirt in any political campaign. Both party's candidates have to endure that.

Making the extended race go away does not remove the flaws. McCain went ballistic on a reporter yesterday. His temper is going to be revealed despite an early primary victory. That is his flaw.

To your last point. If Obama doesn't win PA he should drop out, in my humble opinion. Just joking again.

I say let the race go and let every voter have a say. The candidate with the popular vote lead at the end of the race in June should win.

by ineedalife 2008-03-08 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

My problem with this logic is that I'm looking at the elections where the nominations went to the convention, and it seems like other factors resulted in both the deadlocked primaries and the election loss.  That is to say that they are correlated, but there's no causation.  Both primary deadlocks and election losses in '76, '80, and '88 were caused by the situation at the time.

In 1976, Gerald Ford was in a tough position because of the economy and the pardon.  That the race was so close is pretty surprising.  He closed something like a 30 point gap between the Republican Convention and the election, but didn't win.  The primary was contested (Ford was the incumbent) by Reagan probably at least partially because Ford was viewed as such a weak candidate.

In 1980, the same thing happened.  Carter had basically no chance because of the hostage crisis and because of the economy.  Again, Kennedy only ran because of Carter's 20% approval ratings, and his late wins were attributable to Carter's problems.  Carter was basically unelectable in 1980 (unless he brought the hostages home and the economy drastically improved).

In short, I think you're drawing a conclusion that's not really supported by the evidence.  In two of the cited elections, it was an unpopular incumbent who was challenged in the primaries because of his weaknesses.  If Ford and Carter had been stronger Presidents and candidates, they wouldn't have faced serious primary challenges, and would have won their re-elections.  An analogous situation would be Dubya running for a third term.  He'd face a primary opponent, narrowly defeat him, and get rocked in the general election*.

The only election you mention that didn't feature a weak incumbent was the 1988 one.  In that one, George HW Bush (41) rode Reagan's endorsement and a very effective negative campaign to victory over Dukakis (who had a primary fight).  The difference here is that Dubya is no Reagan, and Obama and Clinton are in better shape to combat negative campaigns.

* = barring catching Bin Laden or an attack in mid-October.

by ZachPruckowski 2008-03-08 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I'll be the first to say correlation does not mean causation.

by J Ro 2008-03-09 12:00PM | 0 recs
Ford Almost Won, And You Can Too

While it's good to see all this data put together, J Ro's diary is an illustration why you don't want to conclude too much from too little data.

The counter example is 1976, where the big story isn't that Carter won -- it's that he came very close to losing.

After Watergate, after Nixon's resignation, and after Ford's pardon, and Ford almost won.  Might have won if the trend went just a little more his way.  And this after a primary campaign that was a hell of a lot more nasty than the current dust up between Hillary and Barack.

I don't see the behavior of the media as all that important -- they are generally unhelpful, and I don't think that there are enough people who are that wound up about which of B or H prevails -- most of us will be fine with either.  But instead, we will be organized down to the precinct level in most of the country.

A small number of folks on sites like this one are getting off on pissing matches among themselves.  It bores the rest of us to tears.  But at least, it is not going to make too much of a difference in November, one way or the other.

by Rob Thorne 2008-03-08 03:13PM | 0 recs
Calendar Games

I'd only to this point that the resason it's a problem has nothing to do with J.Ro suggests. Actually, it's because the Dems sought to hold their convention very late in the summer so as to take advantage of the campaign finance laws that trigger on September 1. In the good old days (2000) both parties put their conventions in the summer. But because of a scheduling trick with the Summer Olympics, the Republicans decided to put their Covention in September as a way to respond to a "dirty trick" by McAullife.

The bottom line is that the parties ought not to game the system like this so much because in the end you can see how little good this is going to do anyone. All three candidates now are going to be raising money like theirs no tomorrow until the end of August. That reality does none of them good...given that McCain won't have much idea who is the nominee and Obama and Clinton will have less options during the final stretch.

by risenmessiah 2008-03-08 06:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

If this problem is that bad, I suggest that the Clintons drop out immediately.

by Carlo 2008-03-08 03:17PM | 0 recs
I think that Obama can win

if he has someone like Webb as his running mate.

Webb will really attract Reagan Democrats.

by puma 2008-03-08 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I can see how we could go to the convention and win, but not with the slash-and-burn campaign Clinton is running.

Obama is running a positive campaign. His discipline in this is impressive. Powers went off-message, and she's gone. He lost in Ohio, but he's sticking to his message.

You don't have to admire him for this. Honestly, I think it has a lot to do with the simple fact that America won't vote for an angry black man. Period. Ask any African American man you know how white people respond to him when he's pissed off, you matter how justified he is.

There has been a lot of talk about how her gender constrains Clinton, but little talk about how his race constrains Obama. But it does. He's a better politician than she is, is all. You don't see the wires.

But whatever the reason, only one campaign is wallowing in negative attacks, spreading rumors and praising the Republican against which they hope to compete in the GE. But one is enough. We could take 5 months of an above-the-belt fight.  But the party, including the SDs, will not tolerate much more of the brawling. And if they jump, they will jump to the delegate leader.

I understand why Clinton is doing what she's doing. "Going positive" on Obama, and winning, is a daunting prospect. But, paradoxically, her efforts to nasty up the race may hasten her exit from it.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:24PM | 0 recs
I agree

Obama will LOSE if he comes across as an "angry black man" beating up on an older white woman.  He can't fight in the mud with Hillary.

What he can do is stay POSITIVE but change his stump speech to gear towards rural voters so he can fight hard for their votes in Pennsylvania.

by puma 2008-03-08 03:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Well, you don't support your argument with any evidence, but since you remembered to close with a dismissive "look it up," thus implying that the facts would support you if you bothered to collect them, I suppose you've won.

by EMTP democrat 2008-03-08 03:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I will agree that there are many MYDD hate-diaries against Obama.

by rfahey22 2008-03-08 03:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Every single time it was the Clintons' own comments (e.g. their smug dismissal of MLK, their trying to portray him as "the black candidate" via references to Jesse Jackson) that has condemned them.

If anything Barack Obama was too restrained, and didn't attack them in this respect as much as they would have deserved.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-03-08 04:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Are you kidding or off your medication? Obama played the race card? It was the Clinton's and their cronies who injected race into the South Carolina primary...it was good old Bill who made veiled references to Obama winning Sc because he was black just as Jesse Jackson had once done. Your a joke if you think the Clintons have done anything on the up and up during this campaign....and its that reason that if Obama doesnt win, I will vote for McCain...no way I will ever vote for Clinton....never under any circumstance....

by adbct 2008-03-09 10:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary

Going to the convention isn't necessarily the problem; it's the fallout if one group of supporters believes that the other candidate "stole" the nomination that would be the real problem.  The nominee would have 2 1/2 months to repair that rift and appeal to independents, all while getting hammered by the other side.  It would be a very difficult task.

by rfahey22 2008-03-08 03:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary

Absolutely. There are positives and negatives in the race "going all the way," but it is invigorating the  process, inspiring new voters in an unprecedented way, and stealing much media attention away from the Republicans right now. Plus, the world is involved, the foreign press is all over each and every primary or caucus. It is an opportunity to heal some of the ugly rift that has taken place between the U.S. and the world, thanks to Bush.

The only detriment will be, as you explained nicely, that if one candidate appears to be cutting those back room deals to acquire the nomination.  

by magnoliagirl 2008-03-09 04:39AM | 0 recs
It's (Probably) Going to the Convention

Well, more precisely, and most likely, Obama will be the de facto nominee by mid-June. The superdelegates will make known they're pushing him over the top by then, because there's no point to wait until the Convention to announce their intentions. This is especially true if either Michigan/Florida don't matter -- the pledged delegate gap is too wide -- or if they hold sanctioned events and still don't matter. There will be extreme pressure to close ranks and support the presumptive nominee. That would give Obama four solid months to do battle against McCain.

There's one possible exception that could mean an earlier end: if Obama beats Clinton in Pennsylvania. That's not something Team Obama forecasts, and I don't think it'll happen either, but it just might get the job done and end the nomination contest in late April.

The only way Clinton gets the nomination is if the Obama campaign has a "catastrophic breakdown" (e.g. candidate, video camera, horse, intimacy). That's not going to happen.

The superdelegates will not overrule the pledged delegates. It's unthinkable.

by BBCWatcher 2008-03-08 03:37PM | 0 recs
Re: It's (Probably) Going to the Convention

If Clinton is going to put herself before the party, then I think Obama could force her out of the race after the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on May 20th. He'd need 156 more superdelegates to get 2024 if his leaked spreadsheet is accurate for pledged delegate splits in the upcoming contests.

by carbocation 2008-03-08 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: It's (Probably) Going to the Convention

If the upcoming primaries go how the polls say they will, this is the endgame I'm predicting too.

by J Ro 2008-03-09 12:02PM | 0 recs
two tickets

if, after June 7th, neither candidate drops out, it is possible that going to the convention could work, if a number of conditions were upheld.  

first of all, NEITHER candidate could go negative on the other.  as there wouldn't be any more primaries it wouldn't make sense to go negative unless one was trying to sabotage the other.  

second, announce that there would be a joint ticket, and that they would let Denver decide.  

third, criss-cross the country talking about the same ideas, a basic joint platform talk up a democratic presidency, not the presidency of a specific person.  

fourth, attack john McCain on all fronts with the two of them raising between 30-70 million a month between the two of them (hopefully) it will be hard for him to defend himself and attack two moving targets.  

fifth, go where your strengths take you.  Obama red-states and small to medium ones, Clinton big states.  

sixth, and this is the most important, have a bunch of joint rallies where the two of them are all happy-happy kissy-kissy.  they'll probably each deserve an Oscar by the end, but seeing the two of them happy by each other so much will help dissolve some of the animosity.  every time it goes to the convention, the winner never chooses the runner-up.  had ford chosen Reagan, carter, Kennedy, Mondale, hart it might have worked better than choosing someone else entirely.

when the convention comes up, hopefully one candidate will have the most delegates, the popular vote, the most super delegates, and will be leading McCain by more than his opponent.  then the choice will be easy, and without much complication.  otherwise it will obviously be chaos, unless both are losing to McCain by a lot, in which case, we hail Mary it, and throw in Gore.

by Doug Tuttle 2008-03-08 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: two tickets

That's quite a proposal.

by rfahey22 2008-03-08 04:00PM | 0 recs
Re: two tickets

we're in quite a pickle.

by Doug Tuttle 2008-03-08 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: two tickets

I hate to cite Newt Gingrich (basically proto-rove, but you know actually book smart as well), but he did make an intriguing suggestion for Obama if this thing is at the same point post all of the contest, as appears likely (basically, PA is cancelled by NC, MI will be an effective tie, and Florida is at best +20 or so Clinton)-- barnstorm the nation, holding his unique mega-rallies in the districts of undecided SDs and SDs who back Clinton despite overwhelming Obama support (say 25%+ or so as a threshold, they each have SDs in their opponents districts but Obama has far more landslide districts in which the SD backs Clinton).

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-09 03:35PM | 0 recs
In the midst of all of

this is looking great for Obama, win Mississippi, keep the loss close in Penn, Blowouts in NC and Oregon and stay on a positive message, and this is a cakewalk.  Got to give to the Obama campaign, they played the 50 state strategy to perfection!

by rejectandenounce 2008-03-08 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: In the midst of all of

Obama is going to win PA. Hillary's lead is in single digits with one poll showing her up by 4 points. By the time PA rolls around, Obama will have single digit lead over Clinton.

Clinton's supporters can dispute this all they want but PA is showing the same pattern as all other states. As we know, they only way to arrest this pattern is to "kitchen sink" approach.

However, the kitchen sink approach can only be used once. It won't help CLinton in PA. Not only will Obama be ready for the kitchen sink, he'll be throwing his own sinks her way come PA.

by poserM 2008-03-08 08:32PM | 0 recs
You know - what is , is.

We members of the democratic party have clearly signaled we are not finished interviewing the candidates.  The people who want to advantage one candidate over another by calling for a curtailment of discussion serve no one.  They are simply trying to manipulate the outcome and are guilty of attempting to disenfranchise democrats, no matter how they try to present their opinions as wisdom.
They need to butt out!  
This discussion, already rendered almost impossible by the MSM is between the people and our candidates.  When Clinton was able to focus attention on the national security credentials - that was good, no one else could or cared to.  Perhaps Obama has focused national attention to some other aspect, I don't know, I am sure he has.  

So here is our opportunity to have as full a discussion of our national issues as the MSM will allow and our very own people, the people we grew to trust over the past 8 years are telling us to "stop" - for the good of the party, they tell us.
Well, I'd like to tell them to "stop" for the good of the country.  It is wrong for them to attempt to cut off our national dialog with the candidates. We need these discussions.  Think how many Americans think Iraq was responsible for 9/11. because democrats, who had the power to initiate public discussion, refused to do so, and we citizens were unable to force them to.  

Issues that surface need to be dealt with by the candidate or left hanging - but not covered up or shushed up.   What is, IS.  We need to know our candidate, warts and all.  We want the best person for the job, don't we?   Can we be trusted to determine that for ourselves or must we take the word of those who would insert themselves into the discussion in an attempt to shield their candidate and perhaps booby trap our chances in the national election this November?  

by olwyns 2008-03-08 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: You know - what is , is.

Great post. I'd just like to add that whichever of our candidates wins the nomination they are both becoming STRONGER candidates, and that this process is sucking all the oxygen out of the press for republicans.

by Marvin42 2008-03-08 05:09PM | 0 recs
Re: You know - what is , is.

Like I said, I'm in the pro-democracy camp. I'm ok if this thing goes as long as it needs to, except if it goes to the convention.

by J Ro 2008-03-09 12:03PM | 0 recs
Not a problem

It is the snarky MSM that don't like it.  It doesn't fit their stupid narrative.

Here in IN we are happy to be able to vote and have it count.

Also, we have open primary, so contested election makes it easier to identify the Ds for November.

by bakho 2008-03-08 05:41PM | 0 recs
lets see ths sucker to the end

had march 4th been a knockout punch it would have made sense for clinto to leave.  6 weeks before the next primary after losing ohio and texas (tha's what a knockout would have needed to be) her campaign would have most likely been dead in the wate.  but now we still have two very viable candidates.  after penn, it's only another month and a half before all of the primaries are over.  thinking at the margins, seeing as there are so many primaries close to one another after penn, what's the point in stopping now?  let's give everyone a chance, and leave mcCoot to yelling at reporters to get press.  though please, hillary, obama, STOP MAKING ADS THAT MAKE MCCOOT LOOK GOOD!!!!  

by Doug Tuttle 2008-03-08 06:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

No, neither of our nominees will have a tough time with McCain.  That's a myth.  We just won Denny Hastert's Congressional Seat in Illinois (very red district) where McCain came in to fundraise for the Republican (Oberweis).

The more I think about it, the more I like an Obama/Clinton ticket.  Obama can be the front man with the vision who sets the tone; Hillary can be the hands-on can-do Vice President (which plays very well to her strengths).  She's not that inspiring on the stump, but boy can she play hardball.

Obama would be smart to propose this, and Hillary would be smart to accept.  She could get Health Care round 2 and maybe win it.

by beerwulf 2008-03-08 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

SUSA poll results confirm this analysis.

by J Ro 2008-03-09 11:49AM | 0 recs
Bad Analysis Universal

You're trying to extrapolate GE results from a primary and that doesn't work. It's like saying that because HRC loses AA's to Obama 80-20 she has a problem with AA's and that she will lose them in the GE. Of course not, the base comes home. Latinos, Asians, Jews will all strongle support Obama in the GE. Will Obama lose a few downscale blue collar (Reagan Dems) voters. Sure. But why ?

If the choice comes down to the recession in the summer & fall, more war in Iraq, and Bush III vs. Obama you don't think that the core Democratic coalition will hold. I beg to disagree. Look, Obama is going to lose a certain amount of votes because he's black and because of his middle name and there's nothing he can do about it.

There is a reason that Republicans overwhelmingly want to run against HRC. SHe's toxic. There's a reason why all the red and purple state politicians are backing Obama. He offers a chacnet o redraw the electorate. HRC is basically going to try a 2000 or 2004 campaing and go for OH or FL.

And she'll fail.

by chatters71 2008-03-08 07:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic
Unless a deal is worked out (joint ticket, or something, though I think that's unlikely), I don't see how Dems can keep this from going to the convention. I've been thinking about this, and it's worrying me.

Granted, these are particularly strong candidates, but the longer this goes on, the dirtier the fight gets. I think Hillary (and her supporters) are alienating some Obama supporters and vice versa. For my part, the more negatively he responds to her (justified though some of it may be), the less I like him. I'm afraid, at some point, my personal distaste will overwhelm my better judgment and destroy my determination to "do the right thing" by voting for him if he gets the nomination. I really wish the primary would end soon, but I don't see it happening.

by sricki 2008-03-08 08:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Catholics
Whites (20% in one poll said they will vote for McCain); especially 'Reagan Democrats'
Latinos
Asians
Jews
Elderly
Women

Where the hell does this come from? Every demographic except Black men? Obama has won significant portions of all of these groups at one time or another. It's like you're reducing the entire GE into the simplest terms. "Well Hillary is a white female so that means that she can appeal to whites and females which make up more of America than Blacks and males, which Obama represents." Who the heck you think have been voting for Obama all of these past weeks? News flash More than just Blacks and broke college kids. Obama is still leading in the popular vote, remember.

by xodus1914 2008-03-08 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Folks need to understand..
Even with a clear candidate, Denver will be ugly.
We are not a major city. Even with police support from other counties we will see National Guard.
There will be a major presence of anti-war folks.
In 2005 The largest rally/march in Denver history took place when over 50,000 gathered against the infamous immigration 4437. They will march again.
Denver has already passed draconian free speech laws in the past year.(They are being challenged by the CO ACLU but will be in place in Aug.)

If there is a candidate with the most pledged delegates that is NOT our nominee?

Although I have been active in Peace/Justice actions in Denver since the 60's, there is no way I will be in town for such a scenario.

There will be those who rightfully feel compelled to come to Denver's streets. But I have had my share of police violence/arrests..
I will leave it to others.

by nogo war 2008-03-08 08:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Well as far as the Pew Poll goes...

I'm a Democrat, a deeply committed Democrat, have been all my life.  I've given, volunteered, traveled to work for Democratic candidates etc.

I'm an American citizen first though.

There's not any possibility that I would ever vote for Sen. Obama if he were my party's nominee for the Presidency.  Well there was only ever one chance that I would vote for some one like Sen
Obama: if I'd any faith in a Democratic Congressional Majority able to pick up the slack.  Unfortunately, the Congressional Democrats have only proven over the last year that they are a timid, embarrassing bunch.

The Presidency was Imperial when Bush came into office. After 7 years of signing statements, Executive Orders, Executive Office imposed and abandoned Treaty obligations, etc., the Executive Branch has become not just the powerhouse but essentially the only active Branch of a Federal Government gone utterly dysfunctional.

The party must offer a credible candidate able to fulfill the responsibilities and oath of office before I can commit to voting for our nominee. I have never been presented with an in-credible, unworthy candidate by the Democratic party as this primary season has threatened.  This is an historic primary in that I could possibly be presented with a disastrously, woefully inadequate Democratic candidate.

Sen Obama is and never has been a credible candidate for the office.  After six months that I might be expected to run through the reasons is at once depressing and laughable.

I am highly relieved that the primary goes on.  The longer it goes on the better a candidate Sen Clinton is forged into because of the very difficulties she is overcoming. The longer the primary goes on the weaker his candidacy becomes, the more obvious and undeniable, the more the delusion is seen through, the more the fact of Sen Obama's inadequacy to the task he would set himself is bared to factual bone.

If my Party is so irresponsible, so delusional, or so susceptible to bullying or so desperate to self-humiliate itself as to proffer Sen Obama as the nominee, it will force me to vote for somebody other than him.  It will force me to vote to PREVENT him from attaining that office.  That means it will force me to vote for Sen McCain.  

That is not a function of racism, it's a dictate of responsible citizenship.  My allegiance is to country first, then party.  Not all Democrats, nor Republicans, have abandoned themselves to blind,  social savaging, downward spiraling partisanship.

Any one is welcome to berate, sneer at, inveigh against that, and of course accuse all they like as Obama fans often do, I however am not obligated to believe or internalize any of it, nor to wear blinders and never to help throw the country off the cliff.

As the Obama fans have ranted, digitally congregated into an online mob and now begun to threaten a Convention tantrum, many Democrats, at least this Democrat, have been made to feel like a character out of drama. Specifically like the Doctor in Ibsen's "Enemy of the People".

The longer the Primary goes on the surer that the water will be shown to have been poisoned and the real enemy will be absolutely apparent.

by autumnal 2008-03-08 08:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Than I would argue that you don't give a damn about this country.

I don't like Hillary, but if she is our nominee, I will vote for her.

Does Supreme Court Justice mean anything to you?

A presidential election is for 4 years, an SC justice is 30+ years.

You know how old Ginsberg and Stevens are don't you?

McCain will push for more Roberts/Scalia/Alito/Thomas.

But perhaps that is what you want.

by Timetheos 2008-03-08 10:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

So true. Ginsberg is 74. Stevens is unbelievably, 87! (And Breyer is no kid at 69). If Clinton is rewarded for running such an unpresidential campaign, I won't watch the inauguration and I won't celebrate. One of the reasons that I support Obama is that I think character is a pretty important quality, and I was starting to believe, just this once, that Americans were really tired of that "3 a.m. phone call" shite.

But I won't hand everything over to the Republicans out of spite. 100 years in Iraq, anyone? No Child Left Behind? Wiretapping? Waterboarding? Remember "Freedom Fries?"

by magnoliagirl 2008-03-09 04:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

The SCOTUS carrot is not enough to make me relent to the Obama shtick. SCOTUS! SCOTUS! SCOTUS!

Talk about the party that cried wolf. SCOTUS has been the lost branch used to whip rank and file Democrats for over twenty years.  In case you hadn't noticed, SCOTUS was gone 7 years ago. Now with   Roberts it is indeed gone past gone. Somewhere during the last 7 years especially the Democrats should have acted like a responsible opposition and compelled temperate, judicious nominees.

The carrot is rotten already, and the shtick is too feeble to fix it.

This is an election to fill the most potent and demanding office within the most complex political economy in human history.  The urgency of SCOTUS appeals dim and pale when put along with the immediate and impending problems that will wrack this country in the coming four years.

The Democratic party must not proffer as its candidate to meet those challenges a candidate lacking the least wherewithal to meet them.

by autumnal 2008-03-09 08:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

--
The carrot is rotten already, and the shtick is too feeble to fix it.
--

So you want to make it worse for the next 30 years.

It is people like you that are destroying the party.

We can have honest disagreements about who is the best candidate, but to throw it all away because your feeling were hurt is pathetic.

by Timetheos 2008-03-09 09:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Too much of the rhetoric responding to rational objections to Obama use this line.

You need to stop treating people like this is the first Democratic primary they've lived through and voted in.  This isn't about electoral sour grapes, it's about responsible citizenship.  The man is unchangeably, undeniably unqualified.  No cut and paste of partisan appeals is going to be an adequate answer to that basic, rational objection.

see the rest below.

by autumnal 2008-03-09 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

---
 The man is unchangeably, undeniably unqualified.
---

1)  I would be glad to hear any concrete evidence that you have that he is unchangeable.  Please do tell.

2)  Tell me, how much foreign relations experience did Bill have when he became president?  Arguably, Bo has more because he did a lot of heavy lifting with Lugar-Obama.

3)  How much exp did other great Presidents have before they joined office?  Lincoln anyone?

---
it's about responsible citizenship
---

Yes, it is.  And responsible citizenship means voting against some one that would "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran." Responsible citizenship means voting against someone that would spy on American Citizens. Responsible citizenship means voting against someone that supports torture.

Responsible citizenship means voting against John McCain.

by Timetheos 2008-03-09 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Funny, this is exactly Hillary's attitude. If she can't have it, she will burn this entire country down.

Good luck with those abortion rights! Enjoy your war with Iran!!

by alvernon 2008-03-08 11:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Too much of the rhetoric responding to rational objections to Obama use this line.

You need to stop treating people like this is the first Democratic primary they've lived through and voted in.

I live in Massachusetts, I've yet to vote for the candidate that was my initial preference in a Democratic primary election. I am inured to having to vote for a Democrat I hadn't initially preferred.  As a matter of fact Hillary Clinton is such a Democrat.  Though I must say I have come to respect, admire and feel comfortable with her far more over the course of this primary.

This isn't about something as silly as electoral sour grapes, it's about protecting and increasing the Party's last shred of credibility, about fielding a responsible choice for people to make for the Presidency.

I have never seen such a horrifyingly unprepared, possibly unforgivably poor possible nominee crop up in a Democratic Presidential primary.

The Party's Superdelegates ignore that at their and the country's peril.

by autumnal 2008-03-09 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

All I have to say is: bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.  You're delusional if you think that McCain is more credible or rational than either of the Democratic candidates.  Whether it is because you are cowed by the fear of terrorism, or you simply do not care that the next president will appoint at least two Supreme Court justices, spare us your pious handwringing.  A President McCain would set the progressive movement back decades.

by rfahey22 2008-03-09 05:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

It's more than abortions.  It's elections and HC and separation of powers between the branches and privacy and ...

by Timetheos 2008-03-09 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Hear, Hear, I agree with you!!

by democrat voter 2008-03-09 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Obama has proven (e.g. in Illinois) that he can work with the other side to create workable compromises that are acceptable by all. It's even been rumored that he may put some moderate Republicans in his cabinet.

The Clintons have proven instead that they can portray the centrist to get into leadership positions, and never actually do much other than remain there. Was "don't ask don't tell" really the only thing they could for gay americans while in office?

The difference between honest collaboration, and dishonest triangulation.

If you don't trust Obama to have the experience and you prefer McCain that's fine by me -- but am surprised that you think a Clinton presidency would be much less "imperial" than Bush's was. I've rarely seen a person that unashamedly seems to think it's all about who picks up the phone more than Hillary is doing.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-03-09 11:24AM | 0 recs
I don't know where Wiki gets its info

but Bill didn't seal his 1992 nomination until June 2 that year, that's when California, Ohio, New Jersey, Alamabam, New Mexico and a bunch of other states had their primaries.  Seriously now, try getting the facts straight.

by BrandingIron17 2008-03-09 03:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

*Alabama dang it

by BrandingIron17 2008-03-09 03:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

The biggest problem I have with Obama is that h IS a professional candidate.  That is what this guy does.  He runs for office.  Period.  That is it!!  It's what he does, it's all he does.  He doesn't actually do the job he has been hired for at all, he just uses the position to run for another office.  What real qualifications does this guy have to actually be president?  Not much.  We has a professional politician in GWB.  All he has done for his whole Presidency is politics. Does he actually run this government?  No he 'hires people for that' and look at the mess we are in because of that.  The reason I want Hillary Clinton to get this nomination is because I believe that she will actually do the damned job!  Obama does not even impress me.  I am sick to death with the sycophants that pepper his campaign and his supporters (no offense intended if you are not a bot) but really, just because this guy is a good campaign organizer or looks good on stage does not mean he can actually do the job.  I have seen what Hillary Clinton has actually done her whole life.  She does the work.  He runs for office.  That is the big difference here.  Look, I'm sure he is a nice guy, I even like the guy.  It has nothing to do with liking him or liking her even, it has to do with running the country.  I know the AAs are all voting for him, but actually I see that as a racist vote.  You may disagree with me here, but if there is a cry of racism, it is found in that vote and not in other blocks of voters.  If that were not true, then those voters would be voting in a block for Clinton, which even in the Latino community is on 65% - 35% which is not 90% for the other guy.  So I get extremely upset when confronted by the comments as above which imply that white people are racist, and that is why they don't support Obama.  It is because I don't think he can do the job, or has proven over his career that he does anything but run for office.  So this is why I am so against him as our nominee. Period.

by democrat voter 2008-03-09 08:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

What Hillary has done her whole life? She was the first lady of arkansas and and than the first lady to Bill for what a total of 16 years? What else has she done..oh right she was a member of the WalMart board serving alongside folks who did what they coudl to destroy union organization at WalMart....oh and she was busy engaging in illegal land deals.....the woman has no resume beyond political and personal greed....she is a scumbag like her husband.

by adbct 2008-03-09 10:19AM | 0 recs
Queen of the Monsters

This the danger of letting it continue on.  http://www.youtube.com/v/TNLGJyfpNyY

by sammymaudlin 2008-03-09 08:52AM | 0 recs
Analogies are good for illumination

but not prediction or fundamental explanation. This is a good post because it gives us pause, but I'm increasingly thinking we MUST go to the Convention, and give the candidacy to the candidate who got the most individual votes.

Right now, Senator Obama is ahead in total votes (I think the best way to calculate this is to include FL but not MI); if he holds it, he should be the nominee (my preferred outcome) but if Senator Clinton comes out ahead, she should be the nominee.

It seems like the best way to get everybody on the same page at this point, because the weighing of votes, the seemingly arbitrary (and definitely non-standardized) system of apportioning delegates, etc. will leave a huge number of Democratic activists with foul tastes in their mouth if their candidate doesn't get it.

Keep campaigning, keep fighting for every vote, and if you get the most votes, you win. Straightforward.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_vote_count.htm l

by chicagolife 2008-03-09 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Analogies are good for illumination

The problem with that is you run into odd states such as Washington, where they had both a caucus and a primary.

According to delegates, the primary did not count.  If you count the primary, you give some people double votes and deny others any vote (such as myself; I did not vote in the primary as it did not count).

by Timetheos 2008-03-09 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Hate to break the news to you, but Obama won Texas.  Might want to double check the delegate count, just in case.

by MisterOpus1 2008-03-09 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

Hate to break the news to you: he lost the primary, which had the psychological impact.

Also I wouldn't push this right now, because there is a chance he will win Mississippi popular vote but lose the delegate count.

A win is a win, by either side. Be honest, accept loss, and be gracious in victory.

by Marvin42 2008-03-09 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

I am being honest - are you?  We can play psychology all we like - there's plenty of psychology in being ahead as far as he is in the delegate count.  There's also plenty of psychology of him winning the TOTAL delegate count in Texas.

There's lots of psychology in mathematics, especially when you add things up to see who actually won that state and who's ahead overall.

And if he loses the delegate count in Mississippi, so be it.  Hillary still has quite a gigantic mountain to climb to catch him, which in all likelihood will not happen no matter what kind of math you use.

You're right, a win is a win.  And right now, Obama is clearly winning overall.

by MisterOpus1 2008-03-09 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

That much I agree with, Sen Obama is winning overall right now. No argument on that one.

by Marvin42 2008-03-17 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Is It A Problem If The Democratic Primary Goes

How's that again?

by beerwulf 2008-03-09 07:42PM | 0 recs
Re: What's the Solution?

It comes down to superdelegates.

They have been holding back, at the behest of Dean, Pelosi and others. Come the home stretch in the summer, if things are still deadlocked, we'll see superdelegates putting one candidate or the other on top. Hopefully, that will be the candidate who won the most pledged delegates AND the popular vote. If not, hopefully it'll be the candidate with the most pledged delegates.

A messy endgame, yes, but not as bad as it going to the convention.

by J Ro 2008-03-09 11:51AM | 0 recs
One thing I noticed
Is that never in contested conventions did the second place guy go as the running mate.
Bodes ill for an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket.
by fetboy 2008-03-09 10:01PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads