IL-14: Democrat Bill Foster Leads For Hastert's Old Seat

Survey USA, which has been remarkably reliable this cycle at the presidential level, has a new poll out of Illinois' 14th (conducted for Roll Call) showing Democrat Bill Foster ahead of Republican Jim Oberweis by 7 points two days out from Saturday's special election. Brownsox brings us the subscription-only Roll Call story:

The House seat recently vacated by former Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) is in danger of flipping to the Democrats in Saturday's special election, according to a poll conducted this week for Roll Call.

In the poll of 517 likely special election voters, conducted by Survey USA exclusively for Roll Call on March 3 and 4, physicist Bill Foster (D) led dairy company executive Jim Oberweis (R) 52 percent to 45 percent. The poll had a 4.4-point margin of error.

Foster appeared to test particularly well with women and independent voters, who preferred him by a 3-2 margin. The survey also suggested Foster had locked down his party's base, taking 97 percent of likely Democratic votes and perhaps stealing 10 percent of likely GOP votes.

If these numbers hold up on Saturday, the return on investment for the NRCC will be sad indeed. As Jonathan wrote yesterday:

Crunching out the math, then, the $1.2 million the NRCC has had to spend defending this Republican seat in a Republican district amounts to 29.2 percent of the committee's net cash-on-hand, or nearly a third. In contrast, the D-trip has spent about 3.0 percent of its net cash-on-hand on the race.

An Oberweis loss, especially of this magnitude, could mean the end of Rep. Tom Cole's, er, distinguished tenure as chair of the NRCC and will be seen as a sign of things to come in the fall for Republicans in red or purple at best districts (IL-14 has a PVI of R+5.) It also serves as the first test case for how Obama's message and endorsement (see his ad for Foster here) may trickle down to the congressional level in November. Granted, Illinois's demographics are shifting and Obama is the hometown senator, but this is a district that Bush won 55-44 in 2004 and Hastert won 60-40 in 2006.

Update [2008-3-6 17:23:46 by Todd Beeton]:Per Dick Durbin's dailyKos diary, contribute to keep the Obama ad on the air for the next 48 hours HERE.

Tags: Barack Obama, Bill Foster, Dennis Hastert, IL-14, Jim Oberweis (all tags)



Fantastic News

I really really hope these numbers hold.  It would be truly sweet to take over Haster's old seat.

by HSTruman 2008-03-06 11:43AM | 0 recs
If Bill Foster wins, he's a Super Delegate

and guess who he'd endorse?

by Walt Starr 2008-03-06 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: If Bill Foster wins, he's a Super Delegate


by Zeitgeist9000 2008-03-06 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: If Bill Foster wins, he's a Super Delegate

He'd have to go for Obama. Obama endorsed him, after all.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-06 11:54AM | 0 recs
I support Foster

and Obama.

I get a twofer. Unfortunately, I live six blocks away from his district, so all I can do to help is put one of his signs in my yard (on a well traveled secondary route many 14th district voters use) and donate to his campaign.


by Walt Starr 2008-03-06 03:13PM | 0 recs
got a link to how Hillary has helped?
Just wondering about how Hillary has been helping in the down-ticket races. I mean, we all know how Barack helped in this race to take IL-14, the seat that used to be held by Publican Speaker Hastert, so could you please provide a link to the down-ticket races that Hillary has been helping out with? Thanks.
by Ajax the Greater 2008-03-06 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: got a link to how Hillary has helped?

LOL! Yeah, Hillary galvanized the Latino vote in TX and helped Rick Noriega become the first Dem to win the Senate nomination on the first ballot since the year 1990. No link, sorry, but you probably know this already.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-03-06 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: got a link to how Hillary has helped?

First off, that's not proof that Hillary actually did anything for him.  She didn't do GOTV for him or anything like that.

Secondly, winning a primary is nothing like helping win an actual seat against the Republican.

by auboy2006 2008-03-06 01:05PM | 0 recs
crosstabs now available...


by bored now 2008-03-06 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: IL-14: Democrat Bill Foster Leads For Hastert'

This is a Republican district and Foster wouldn't have a chance if Chris Lauzen had won the GOP nomination.  Oberweis is a jackass and the sizeable chunk of Republicans that realize it are likely to stay home on Saturday.  If the Dems get their voters out, Foster will win this.

by ChgoSteve 2008-03-06 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: With MI and FL, Obama Will Win Nominati

Wow...that was dumb.

Amazing what crap passes for journalism these days.

Of course, if they do over Michigan and Florida, the media get to spend a week explaining how it changes things.

By the end of this, I think the entire Democratic Party needs to have a drink.

by freedom78 2008-03-07 07:06AM | 0 recs
Re: IL-14: Democrat Bill Foster Leads For Hastert'

Anyone know what turnout is like in these special elections?

I would imagine it's pretty low...mostly party loyalists.  If independents don't get out, it hurts the Democrat's chances.

by freedom78 2008-03-07 07:09AM | 0 recs


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