Early Exits

Update [2008-3-4 18:13:27 by Jonathan Singer]: Just across my desk come some early exit poll data that looks different, though not tremendously different, from the numbers posted below from Jim Geraghty. Take with a number of big grains of salt, but this is what I just heard:

Vermont: Obama 67, Clinton 33
Ohio: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Texas: Obama 51, Clinton 49
Rhode Island: Clinton 49, Obama 49

I'm still trying chase down some numbers from my sources, but it looks like NRO's Jim Geraghty has gotten his hands on not one but two sets of early exit polling data (perhaps coming from different points in the day, though also perhaps from different pollsters). Here's what he has:

For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.

Again, we'll pass along what we get if and when we get it...

Tags: Democratic primaries, Exit Polling, Ohio, ohio primary, texas, Texas primary (all tags)

Comments

106 Comments

Re: Early Exits?

That means Clinton should win, because the early exit polls always show an Obama lead, such as back on Feb 5 in NJ, MA, AZ, CA and MO.

by American1989 2008-03-04 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

So factoring in early voting in OH & TX, Clinton should win.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-03-04 01:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Actually there is a lot of conflicting data about who would win early voters but a lot of signs pointing to Obama in both states. Remember this is not Feb 5th anymore. Early voting started right when he had the momentum in his back - which he lost a bit/quite a bit this weekend

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

I could have told you that.

I think the demographics on polls from Texas are a bit iffy. (SurveyUSA has 31% Hispanic, 16% African American for their last poll, IIRC)

Then again, until proven otherwise, I always bet the under on Hispanic turnout. Eventually that'll stop being such a sensible guess.

by RBH 2008-03-04 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Depends on the TX poll...

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-03-04 01:32PM | 0 recs
What Makes You Say That?

Didn't Obama apparently have a wildly successful early voting program in Texas? I think you're probably right about Ohio, though.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-03-04 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

For the sake of reference, Obama won Missouri.

It's just that he did so in a way that kept me up until 2am.

by RBH 2008-03-04 01:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

"That means Clinton should win, because the early exit polls always show an Obama lead, such as back on Feb 5 in NJ, MA, AZ, CA and MO."

Aaah, the good old days! Seems sooo long ago, don't it (a month to be almost exact)? Back when HRC was inevitable AND relevant! Which part of "Obama's momentum didn't start until AFTER Feb 5th" are you people NOT understanding? If we re-did Feb 5th's elections TODAY, Obama would SWEEP California, and be a LOT closer in both New York, if not winning it. EVERYTHING has changed since Feb 5th... 11 states have said so definitively so far.

by VT COnQuest 2008-03-04 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Actually, you are very wrong about at least one of those states. I live in MO, and HILLARY was ahead in the exit polls until the very end of the game.

by baristaberry 2008-03-04 01:59PM | 0 recs
Not Wisconsin

First exits in Wisconsin had Hillary up 6.

by elrod 2008-03-04 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Those are the greatest exit poll numbers I've ever seen.

Look at those blowouts! That candidate is clearly going to have an outstanding night!

by Kal 2008-03-04 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

lol

by yitbos96bb 2008-03-04 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Heh, I thought you took my quote and deleted my comment and then I discovered this was a different thread.

MSNBC is doing exits now.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-04 01:11PM | 0 recs
Interesting

If Obama's advantage in early voting in TX is factored in, this should be a big night.

by bigdcdem 2008-03-04 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Interesting

If those were right.  There have been many different polls saying early was either a tie, Obama advantage or a Clinton Advantage.  So we don't know.  The closer it is the better for Obama, although obviously she continues on.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-03-04 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

MSNBC exit info:

81% opposed to NAFTA in Ohio.

60/24 in Ohio against.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-04 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Oops, that should say 60/24 in Texas.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-04 01:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Covering all the bases

In RI Obama and Clinton are leading.
In Ohio Obama and Clinton are leading.
In Texas they are tied.
In Vermont.... 2 to 1 victory.

Sounds like a pretty safe exit poll.

by jbsloan 2008-03-04 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Does this mean the Gravelanch is over?

by its simple IF you ignore the complexity 2008-03-04 01:26PM | 0 recs
NEVER!

he is gonna own Puerto Rico. i called it!

by omar little 2008-03-04 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

lmao

by yitbos96bb 2008-03-04 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

Lot of independents voting

-Self-described independents were about one in five voters in Ohio's Democratic primary, one in four in Texas, a third in Rhode Island and four in 10 in Vermont.

-In the GOP race in Ohio, independents were about one in seven voters, in Texas one in five.

by mainelib 2008-03-04 01:14PM | 0 recs
Are these things ever right?

They aren't corrected for demographics. That comes later.

by ineedalife 2008-03-04 01:15PM | 0 recs
Thank you

people don't understand that exit polls are not polls - they deliberately over-sample some group to get a big enough same size for sub-group analysis.

My guess is Ohio is over-sampled for the African American vote - which suggest the raw number is overstating Obama's support.

by fladem 2008-03-04 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Thank you

Now, do you guess this b/c you have some evidence of it; or b/c you have data suggesting that this is in fact true?

by Cycloptichorn 2008-03-04 01:55PM | 0 recs
I really doubt those numbers

If Obama wins OH, he wins TX by a lot more than 2 points.

by MILiberal 2008-03-04 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

what percent of the delegates are awarded by the primary v. the caucus in texas?

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-04 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

65% primary to 35% caucus

by jbsloan 2008-03-04 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits?

thanx

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-04 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

I'd love for those numbers to be true, but they seem a bit favorable for Obama.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-04 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

They seem a bit insane.

by americanincanada 2008-03-04 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Why ? Is it possible that undecideds who usually break for HIllary because she is the safe choice ended up breaking for Obama because he has now become the frontrunner aka the safe choice ?

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

No. because Fox has this...

Texas

Late Deciders 66-32 Clinton
Hispanics 64-35 Clinton; Hispanics made up ~33%
Women 54-46 Clinton

by americanincanada 2008-03-04 01:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Oh, well if Fox has it, it must be gospel.

by Drummond 2008-03-04 01:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

CNN had similar numbers, so yes they are consistent. I checked the FOX numbers.

by American1989 2008-03-04 01:29PM | 0 recs
Late Deciders

Could be a small percentage of the total. Might not make much difference. We'll see.

by HatchInBrooklyn 2008-03-04 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

CNN is a little better, though not much.  They've both underpredicted Obama consistently.

by Drummond 2008-03-04 01:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Those are smaller than expected margins for her important demographics though, so that's not good news per se.

by thezzyzx 2008-03-04 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits
Absolutely. The margin among Latinos is 2 to 1 which is OK but not overwhelming and 55-45 among women is BAD  for her.
Not surprised about late-deciders
by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 01:34PM | 0 recs
55-45 is great for her

Obama won women in Virginia and Maryland.  Clinton up 10 when Women make up 55-60% of the electorate is pointing to a huge Clinton win in Texas.

by FredFred 2008-03-04 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: 55-45 is great for her

Hillary won women in that vast majority of states she lost though, I'm not sure how a 10% margin indicates that it should be a huge night for her.

by Socraticsilence 2008-03-04 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Those are some crazy ass polls.  I don't see how the first two sets of numbers only add up to an eight point lead among women for HRC.  She needs a bigger gender gap to win.  

Regardless of who they favor, I think all these numbers are worthless.  People are still voting, for god sakes, + these numbers don't include early voting at all.  Could be a long night.

by HSTruman 2008-03-04 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Comparing those to the SUSA poll which had Clinton and Obama tied:
SUSA women: Clinton 57 Obama 39 (so this would suggest Obama is going better than expected among women)
Hispanis: 32% in SUSA versus 33% in Exit Poll, SUSA had Clinton winning 64-33, almost exactly what SUSA had.

Those might be good numbers for Obama - particularly the numbers among woman.  

by fladem 2008-03-04 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Yep, these are the only polls that matter tonight.

Let's not get our hopes up--Remember that Obama was behind by 15-20 points in TX and OH two weeks ago. He's never taken the lead in OH, and his lead in TX was never statistically significant.

by Kal 2008-03-04 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Yeah, those numbers are just insane.

I won't believe Obama can win the Ohio Primary until the Ohio SoS says he did.

If he keeps it within 5, I'm ecstatic.

by zonk 2008-03-04 01:43PM | 0 recs
agreed.

demographically, an Ohio loss for Clinton would be absolutely devastating.

by omar little 2008-03-04 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

If this is true, the Democratic race is over.  I'm very much concerned about Obama's ability to respond to increased scrutiny and missteps on things like NAFTA.

But we've seen early exit polls wrong before.

by mikelow1885 2008-03-04 01:20PM | 0 recs
I got an early exit poll

Pennsylvania: Kerry 59, Bush 41

Just to keep things in perspective here.

Early exit polls are just polls without the credibility. Or ARG polls.

by RBH 2008-03-04 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Even if these numbers are off a bit and Clinton wins, the numbers would have to be WAY off for Clinton to have the blowout that the polls predicted.

by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Exit polls have been way off before.  Like others have said, think of them like regular polls, but with larger margins of error (aka ARG polls).

by soccerandpolitics 2008-03-04 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

  Well, those are weird exit polls.  I don't believe them.  I know, going out on a limb...

by cilerder86 2008-03-04 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

The exit polls were spot on in Wisconsin, Virginia and MD...i dont know who will win, but it seems as if neither candidate will have a decisive victory in either texas, ohio or rhode island for that matter.

by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Totally useless.  The "early" exit polling predictions bombed on Super Tuesday.  Moreover, it doesn't take into account early voting, which has been significant.

by Drummond 2008-03-04 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Of course polling from Early voters has been ALL over the place so who the heck knows.

by yitbos96bb 2008-03-04 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Vermont polls close in 30 minutes.  Will the networks call it immediately?  If not, then it's probably closer than Obama would like.

by Skaje 2008-03-04 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Yeah - if VT isn't called by 7:01, then I honestly fear we're in for a tough night.

by zonk 2008-03-04 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

The networks called Wisconsin for McCain over Huckabee the instant polls closed, they waited like 15 minutes more to call Obama.  In the end, Obama won by 17%, Mccain by 18%.  Go figure.

by Skaje 2008-03-04 01:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

I think that was because the pre-election polls showed Wisconsin close for the Democrats, but not the Republicans.  When the exit polls conflict with the pre-election polls, they tend to wait a little longer to call the election.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-03-04 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

So much for that:-)

by zonk 2008-03-04 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

So no matter who wins, everybody gets drunk tonight.

(Nah, not quite)

by RBH 2008-03-04 01:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Unlikely to be the final numbers (even corrected with the second wave -- Rhode Island looks especially terrible for Hillary -- but argues against the sort of blowout that would've changed the delegate math much. If this hold (at all) the main victory Hillary would get would be a very good 48-72 hour news cycle and not anything concrete. Which would be great for her fans, they could gloat and have a last hurrah, but not so great for her prospects long term.

That said, I'll take another look at Ohio in an hour and wait another 2-3 hours for Texas. These aren't indicative of anything except that Hillary will likely not win by 15% or so.

by Addison 2008-03-04 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits
Some news sources have already called Vermont for Obama. Also, the vice-president of the TExas Democratic Party, a superdelegate, just committed to....Obama
http://www.burntorangereport.com/
by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:32PM | 0 recs
Of course you realize

You are badly misreading the article - Alter is saying she could win 16 states and STILL not catch up to him in pledged delegates - no that Hilary can't "win" or that Obama can, without the help of super delegates.

So, wasted outrage, on this.

by jc 2008-03-04 01:32PM | 0 recs
Wrong thread

Apologies

by jc 2008-03-04 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

From Marc Ambinder

The Clinton campaign, having received leaked exit polls showing slim leads in both Texas and Ohio, is already challenging, in the press, the aggressiveness of Obama's caucus operation but is generally happy with early reports that turnout in Texas is high.

by bayareasg 2008-03-04 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Obama campaign just released a press release saying they expect to net a total of 12 delegates tonight.

by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

I'll believe it when I see it.

I said in the prediction thread that my upper limit of expectations/hopes was a redo of SuperTuesday (essentially a tie, maybe slim delegate lead).

If Obama actually post a +12, I'd be at the top of my expectations.

It just hasn't been the best 48 hours, taking in the polls, the Ohio weather, and the recent news cycles.

Just gimme a tie in TX and I'll go to bed happy.

by zonk 2008-03-04 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

The only thing we can probably safely conclude from this is that Obama will almost certainly win Vermont.

But as far as predicting the other states when you account for the unreliability of early exits (they are notoriously worse than actual polling surveys that are weighted and tinkered with taken the day before for example) and the amount of early votes in each state, you can conclude almost nothing.

I hope Ohio and Rhode Island are that close but I seriously doubt it.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Obviously two point leads for one candidate or the other are meaningless.  These exits do suggest that things should be close, and that Obama should win Vermont comfortably.  Beyond that, we don't know anything.

by jlk7e 2008-03-04 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

We can agree at least that the exit polls do not mirror the Hillary blowout that was expected. Perhaps the exit polls are really wrong though.

by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Who said this was going to be a Clinton blowout? You're the first.

by RJEvans 2008-03-04 01:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Read Todd's exited reports on Hillary "regaining momentum" yesterday.

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

That means a "blowout?"

She regained a statistically insignificant lead.

by RJEvans 2008-03-04 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Yeah, agreed that these don't mean much...

Would take those kinds of numbers in an instant, though. =)

Also, does anyone know if these exit pollsters factor in early voting somehow?

by leshrac55 2008-03-04 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

I don't know how they would since the exit pollers do not poll early voters, since the early voters wouldn't be at the polling station today.

by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Right, I know that... didn't know if they somehow did some weighting with it, though.  I figured they probably didn't, but I didn't know. =)

by leshrac55 2008-03-04 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

I don't know the answer, but my assumption is that they could only poll people at polling places. The only way they could factor in early voting is if they somehow put that counterweight into their dataset based on other polls, though I have never heard that they do any such thing.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:39PM | 0 recs
A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton....

Since she likely had a ten point plus lead in early voting. In Texas it is unclear but Obama may have had a slight edge in early voting (Though Survey USA had a slight edge to Hillary and they have proven them the best pollsters this primary season, though not necessarily for taht particualr variable [i,e--early voting which would be a subsample]).

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

Really?  I thought this was unclear... Some people had Obama up 10-12 points in early voting, others I saw had Clinton up 2-4 points in early voting.  I'm not sure it's clear at all what the early voting is doing in this election...

by leshrac55 2008-03-04 01:38PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

Just basing this on internals in Survey USA that had her up 13 in early voting, but up only 8 on those expected top vote on election day in Ohio.

In Texas Survey USA had HRC up 2, but BELO tracking ahd Obama up double digits on early voters (Which given the inflated turnoouts in Travis, Harris and Dallas counties makes more sense to me).

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

the BELO tracking poll had a cumulative number of OBama winning early deciders by 9%. Basically, they averaged the answers given over the previous 7 days among early voters to arrive at this number. This number might be more accurat than the SUSA number since that was just based off one poll.

by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:44PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

More interesting is that the AA % of the voting group is only at 20% which does not bode well for Obama per BELO he needed at least 24% AA turnout.

by bayareasg 2008-03-04 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

Yes hopefully the black vote will be higher.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

Is this the right poll?  I thought SurveyUSA had Clinton up 2 points in early voting (something like 50-48).  

Either way, polls have been all over the map on this because of the poor sampling, and small sample size.  

by leshrac55 2008-03-04 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

Yes...I think 50-48 is right for TX and up more in OH for early voters in Survey USA internals.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

Ah, you may be right.

Not sure about the OH numbers.  In any case, I still think it's too hard to tell... there's been a lot of on-the-ground reports that say Obama may have even had a slight early voting edge there as well, but guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

by leshrac55 2008-03-04 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

A tie on election day in Ohio after the HORRIBLE weekend Obama had in the press is NOT good news for her. She should win way more easily than that. But those are exit polls. Let's keep that in mind

by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: A tie on election day in Ohio goes to Clinton.

I would agree. If Hillary ties on election day she would win Ohio narrowly instead of by 8-12 points as it looked like might occur. If these exit pollsa re close to actual results, Obama has exceeded expectations in OH and RI and held even with expectations in TX and VT and come away with more delegates.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Clinton will win the primary in TX by vote, but probably lose in delegates due to apportionment and the fact that heavy Clinton areas (Latino areas) have fewer delegates than heavy Obama areas.

by lokiloki 2008-03-04 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: OH definitely Clinton - 60% women voters

Look at the turnout 60% women.

Turnout among women looks to be up in both states in these preliminary results -- they account for about six in 10 voters in Ohio, and not quite as many in Texas, compared with 52 percent in Ohio and 53 percent in Texas in 2004.

by bayareasg 2008-03-04 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: OH definitely Clinton - 60% women voters
Yeah but exit polls show one of the states her winning women only 55-45. Not that big of a margin Obama couldn't catch up in men (if the numbers are relevant to OH)
Listen if RI is too close to call, then we have to assume tonight is going to turn a lot of assumptions on their head.
by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 01:49PM | 0 recs
Black women

Obama cuts the gender gap when there are lots of black women in the electorate.

by elrod 2008-03-04 02:06PM | 0 recs
so...

we know nothing. am i right nervous bloggers?

the only thing i can say is that the scenario in which Clinton wins TX by over 5 and OH by over 10 seems less likely than it did a few days ago.

anyone disagree?

by omar little 2008-03-04 01:49PM | 0 recs
Re: so...

We'll see...Clinton really needs some big wins (15-20%+ tonight to catch up in delegates

by mecarr 2008-03-04 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: so...

True, but is she wins both big states by 14% you can bet the media bounce would put her back in the race. Lets hope the voters in Texas can deliver Obama a delegate and a popular vote win to undermine any grandiose claims of a Clinton comeback.

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:54PM | 0 recs
if she wins both by 15%

its a whole new ballgame, no doubt.

by omar little 2008-03-04 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: so...
Absolutely. It is possible for either candidate to win TX, Oh and RI but in all likelihood neither will have a huge margin from what we can make up.
Obama winning those closely is good for him though while Clinton only winning them closely would be more problematic. As I said below, if she can't win decisively in OH with the bad press Obama has had in the past few days, well, it is not a good sign.
But then again those are only exit polls. She may well get a bigger margin
by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 01:53PM | 0 recs
I'll disagree

The early exit poll data is almost never very meaningful.

Could still eb big wins for Clinton in the popular vote, though the win in delegate counts will probably go to Obama.

He should also maintain his lead in the popular vote.

I suspect that will mean he'll take the Super Delegat lead within a week, because he's loved in Wyoming and Mississippi.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-04 01:53PM | 0 recs
i think exit polls in TX

are probably less meaningful because of how huge the state is geographically. unless they have 100 different exit pollers around the state, im not buying it.

by omar little 2008-03-04 02:01PM | 0 recs
Rhode Island is a definite shocker

Should be the tenth election day in a row where Obama took more delegates.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-04 01:51PM | 0 recs
The only reason I am obssesed with exit polls....

right now is because it is all we have. These results are next to meaningless, but I am just dying for some real returns. Election Day results for me are worse than waiting for Christmas when I was 5. In eight minutes....come on Vermont.

The night starts with good news. I bet the networks call Vermont in 9 minutes and seven seconds :-).

by keithdarlingbrekhus 2008-03-04 01:53PM | 0 recs
Exits change throughout the night

So these are not normalized to the actual results.  But in the other elections the "early exits" would say one thing and then throughout the night the exits morph on CNN.com until they reflect the accurate results in the end.  (This happened in 2004 as well).  I think that say you have a precinct where in the exits Obama wins 55-45, but then they get the actual results from the precinct and it's a 50-50 tie, they figure that they oversampled Obama voters in the exits, so they adjust the exits for that precinct to underweight the Obama voters by 50/55ths and they overcount the Clinton voters by 50/45ths, which then can change the makeup of the race if the exits said that men voted for Obama and women for Clinton, and that the gender makeup was 50/50, they may change it so that the gender makeup was actually 47% men to 53% women.  

Am I right?

by FredFred 2008-03-04 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

I'm waiting for the results. . . .

by poserM 2008-03-04 02:00PM | 0 recs
Exit poll data from Vermont seems to verify

The early exist look about right for Obama in Vermont.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-04 02:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Exit poll data from Vermont seems to verify

#Walt...what is your e mail address...

...mine is a_gunsl1nger@yahoo.com

by a gunslinger 2008-03-04 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Early Exits

Heck, my husband just headed out to vote for Obama and the polls close in 5 minutes. So it's not over yet!

by Becky G 2008-03-04 02:27PM | 0 recs

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