Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?
by Todd Beeton, Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 11:55:51 AM EST
Interesting. According to the two daily national tracking polls, Hillary Clinton's rebound is not unique to Texas and Ohio.
Clinton 45 (43, 42, 43, 42, 43)
Obama 45 (48, 50, 49, 49, 48)
From Gallup's analysis:
This is based on tracking interviewing conducted March 1-3. A strong night for Clinton last night allowed her to erase the lead Obama had held the previous six days. Obama's lead had been as large as eight percentage points -- 50% to 42% in Feb. 28-March 1 polling. Tonight's primaries in four states are critical to the future of the Clinton campaign, as she looks to win a contest for the first time since Super Tuesday.
Clinton 46 (45, 44, 43, 42, 40)
Obama 44 (44, 44, 45, 47, 49)
From the Rasmussen analysis:
Clinton now holds a two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. Prior to these past two days, Clinton had trailed every day for three weeks (see recent daily results). Clinton's modest rebound nationally corresponds to a similar rebound in late polling for the key states of Ohio and Texas.
This trend contrasts with the new ABC News/WaPo poll, which shows Obama leading Clinton nationally 50-43%, although the polling period was slightly earlier than the tracking polls (2/28-3/2) so didn't pick up the Monday surge for Clinton that the tracking polls apparently found.
Interestingly, even with this 7 point lead for Obama, voters polled by ABC/WaPo felt overwhelmingly that Hillary Clinton should stay in the race even if she wins just one of the big states at stake tonight.
Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party's presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Two losses, however, would dramatically change the equation. Only 29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states, but that number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both.
In other words, the "drop out Hillary" caucus is losing the message war and after tonight, if Hillary does win popular votes in both Texas and Ohio, expect the Clinton camp to make the case that the wins are a mandate to fight on.