Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Interesting. According to the two daily national tracking polls, Hillary Clinton's rebound is not unique to Texas and Ohio.

Gallup 3/1-3:

Clinton 45 (43, 42, 43, 42, 43)
Obama 45 (48, 50, 49, 49, 48)

From Gallup's analysis:

This is based on tracking interviewing conducted March 1-3. A strong night for Clinton last night allowed her to erase the lead Obama had held the previous six days. Obama's lead had been as large as eight percentage points -- 50% to 42% in Feb. 28-March 1 polling. Tonight's primaries in four states are critical to the future of the Clinton campaign, as she looks to win a contest for the first time since Super Tuesday.

Rasmussen 2/29-3/3:

Clinton 46 (45, 44, 43, 42, 40)
Obama 44 (44, 44, 45, 47, 49)

From the Rasmussen analysis:

Clinton now holds a two-point edge over Obama, 46% to 44%. Prior to these past two days, Clinton had trailed every day for three weeks (see recent daily results). Clinton's modest rebound nationally corresponds to a similar rebound in late polling for the key states of Ohio and Texas.

This trend contrasts with the new ABC News/WaPo poll, which shows Obama leading Clinton nationally 50-43%, although the polling period was slightly earlier than the tracking polls (2/28-3/2) so didn't pick up the Monday surge for Clinton that the tracking polls apparently found.

Interestingly, even with this 7 point lead for Obama, voters polled by ABC/WaPo felt overwhelmingly that Hillary Clinton should stay in the race even if she wins just one of the big states at stake tonight.

Two-thirds of Democrats say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party's presidential nomination alive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Two losses, however, would dramatically change the equation. Only 29 percent of Democrats said Clinton should drop out if she loses one of the two big states, but that number jumps to 51 percent if she loses both.

In other words, the "drop out Hillary" caucus is losing the message war and after tonight, if Hillary does win popular votes in both Texas and Ohio, expect the Clinton camp to make the case that the wins are a mandate to fight on.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, Democratic nomination, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

40 Comments

Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

But everyone has said she will lose so none of that matters.

by bruh21 2008-03-04 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Along with Clinton's surge comes more people who identify themselves as Democrats.

It fortifies the point by Pew research that 10% of Clinton voters will (sadly) vote for McCain if Obama wins.

by rolnitzky 2008-03-04 12:01PM | 0 recs
That would be tragic indeed.

I am a hardcore Clintonista, but I am a Democrat first.  I will never vote for a Republican for anything.  If I have to, I will hold my nose, vote for Obama in the GE, and go get really drunk...

by jarhead5536 2008-03-04 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Then they aren't Democrats and I don't trust people who that fickle to keep their word come Nov 2008.

by bruh21 2008-03-04 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

The poll found that 25% of HRC supporters would vote for McCain, actually.  

by HSTruman 2008-03-04 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

10% is an understatement.

In a New Jersey survey, as high as 30% of current Clinton supporters were planning to vote for McCain in Novemeber IF Obama was the nominee.

OUCH !

If NJ shows those numbers, wait until you see PA & MA. Disaster.

by labanman 2008-03-04 12:36PM | 0 recs
My fear as well

Check out this interactive map of MA concerning the Feb 5th primary and some of votes

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008 primaries/mass_primary_dem_results_by_t own

Look at some of those totals South of Boston

by merbex 2008-03-04 12:48PM | 0 recs
Not gonna happen

It's certainly possible that as many as 10% of HRC voters may wind up voting for McCain.

Just as 10% or more of Obama supporters may vote for McCain or sit out.

Just as 10% or more of Republican voters will vote for Obama or sit out.

So, don't panic, folks. When, 8 months from now, it's crystal clear that a vote for McCain is a vote for a third Bush term (pro-war, pro-tax cuts for the rich), the vast majority of those discontented Dems will come home.

by JD Lasica 2008-03-04 05:19PM | 0 recs
amazing

what a little scrutiny in the press does to Obama's image

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-04 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: amazing

Comment of the day!  Terse, yet pithy...

by jarhead5536 2008-03-04 12:11PM | 0 recs
Re: amazing

i guess it struck a cord with moonwood since he troll rated me,

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-04 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: amazing

You didn't deserve that rating.  I disagree with you, but a little sarcasm should be encouraged during this ridiculously self-rightous season.

by HSTruman 2008-03-04 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?
Let me remind you she also rebounded in the same manner right before Super Tuesday and right before Wisconsin (look at the past curb)
Election Day approaching always ups her numbers and they fall right back down.
by Benjaminomeara 2008-03-04 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

She does better in weekend polling ... More of her supporters at home, w/ landlines? Dunno.

by Oregonian 2008-03-04 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

That was my first instinct, but it turns out the surge came from the Monday polling.

by KevinCinNYC 2008-03-04 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Of course she will fight on, as she has intended all along.  Maybe she gets a bit of media breathing space if she has a result which can be spun as a comeback but the delegate math is ruthless.  I still don't see a plausible scenario for her nomination barring some significant and unforeseen event.

What the Clinton campaign has learned is to go negative with a barrage of accusations close to election day before the rebuttal has time to sink in.  Unpleasant but effective tactics but a risky strategy.  We'll see.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-03-04 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Not to mention she does better than Obama in the head-to-heads for the last three days. Plus, Obama no longer leads McCain. I guess the NAFTA story and Rezo may have done some work, but this is nothing compared to what the GOP will throw at him. Makes you wonder.

by RJEvans 2008-03-04 12:13PM | 0 recs
Clinton's no shame demogoguery

is stomach turning.  

by Moonwood 2008-03-04 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton's no shame demogoguery

Why are you so angry? Obama has a bad news week and his poll numbers go down. Expected. Just relax. Problem is, it went down across the board--TX, OH, nationally and in the matchups. What is even worse is that these were not very damning news. They were light. I makes you wonder what will happen in the fall when day after day the GOP hits Obama with countless attacks. Clinton has endured a year of attacks by the media and has thus survived.

by RJEvans 2008-03-04 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Great. . .next thing we know, the Dems have a delegate fight at the convention.  At this point, there is no conceivable way for Clinton to take over the pledged delegate lead.  Her only hope for the nomination is a delegate fight at the convention.

by Jim Treglio 2008-03-04 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

I agree, I think Obama should step down for the good of the party, after all Clinton has won majorities of Democratic voters, while he is only ahead when you include crossover anti-Hillary republicans.

by rolnitzky 2008-03-04 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

I have a novel proposal:  the winner of the nomination according to the rules of the nomination is the winner of the nomination.

Stop whining about caucuses being unfair, FL/MI being unfair, etc.  The rules were the same for everyone.

And I'm consistent.  Clinton can and should try to convince superdels to vote for her regardless of the pledged dels.  That's part of the rules too.  It won't work, but have at it.

by snaktime 2008-03-04 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

That's a great way to land the 25% of all registered voters who are Independents.

by mattw 2008-03-04 12:27PM | 0 recs
Yes lets just go for the hardcore Dems

thats a recipe for failure in November.  Obama has a million vote lead over Hillary - they are not even a large minority of Reps. Read Newsweek the math just doesn't work for Hillary - she cannot win.  

by Moonwood 2008-03-04 12:35PM | 0 recs
unsurprisingly

Polls go down after bad news cycles.

by snaktime 2008-03-04 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

And even with this news, her path to the nomination is...?

by HSTruman 2008-03-04 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

you've got to be kidding me right? you have completely lost all sense of objectivity.

there is NO mandate to move on. Nor do national poll numbers matter. They never have. Not when Hillary was winning the national polls by 10-20 points while losing primaries and caucuses and definitely not after she's lost 11 straight, 12or13/15 after tonight and 14or15/17 races after mississippi and wyoming.

there is no spinning this Todd. You are truly losing it.

she should drop out tonight unless she wins Ohio by over 10 and wins Texas by 10.

by alex100 2008-03-04 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

why the rush?

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-04 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

I think people want to do a general election campaign. I don't mind if Hillary goes all the way through Puerto Rico, regardless of the odds. I wouldn't mind if she got the facts straight before she attacked Obama based on bogus news stories, but I guess that's good prep for Rethug attack machine tactics.

by mattw 2008-03-04 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Because spending our time and money campaigning for Democratic values and against the Republican nominee is a good thing.  Spending out time and money fighting smears and hits from fellow Democrats isn't.

by Brillobreaks 2008-03-04 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

"say a victory in either Ohio or Texas would be reason enough for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to keep her historic bid for the party's presidential nomination alive"

seems like you're projecting onto this finding.  saying that a victory "would be reason enough...to keep bid alive" is a long shot from saying that you want her to keep going.  i would certainly fall into that 2/3rds of dems as i think that clinton will use anything she can spin as a win as justification to continue forward.  that doesn't mean that i want her to do that.

furthermore, even if she does eke out a win tonight i don't really know if the situation looks that much rosier for her.  with bill richardson saying that this thing needs to be wrapped up asap and a gossiped 50 superD's ready to throw their weight behind obama, is there really much hope left for the clinton team if she doesn't absolutely blow him out of the water at this point??

if things keep chugging along this way, here's what i see as the most likely scenario:

clinton will continue to "throw kitchen sink" at obama.  more superD's and ex-candidates will endorse obama as they get increasingly uncomfortable with the negativity of the campaign.  behind the scenes, the bigwigs will start putting massive pressure on clinton to bow out gracefully for the good of the party.  if hillary still doesn't get the point, then they go nuclear-- look for massive endorsements from pelosi, gore, edwards, etc. to staunch the bloodletting and make it clear that it is time for her to throw in the towel.  at that point, even if she stays in, she'll be like the democratic huckabee.

(i could be totally wrong...just my two cents)  

by bluedavid 2008-03-04 12:28PM | 0 recs
and

Clinton was facing attacks from Obama, Edwards, Repugs, and the media.

Its politics, thats what happens.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-03-04 12:33PM | 0 recs
The difference is Hillary is willing to

demagogue and get into the mud with the best of them.  Obama says its time for a different kind of politics - he may be naive - but at least he has principles - Hillary is willing to do anything to win - as you say thats politics - but does it have to be that way - just a thought.

by Moonwood 2008-03-04 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: The difference is Hillary is willing to


"They have run a pretty negative campaign over the last couple of weeks," the Illinois senator conceded of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, during a brief press conference on his campaign plane this afternoon. But he said he had no regrets about not returning fire with fire. Day after day, as Clinton questioned his toughness and candor, Obama brushed the furor aside, offering mild observations about her "tenacious" campaign style.

"I have said consistently that we do things differently," Obama said. "It's worked for us so far. And I'm not going to do things that I'm not comfortable in doing."

He could pay a price tonight. "There's no doubt that if you're being attacked every day, it creates a sense of turbulence," Obama said. Or maybe not. "Just remember that what we've been doing has worked," he added. "It's put us in a position now where I am confident that we can maintain a pledged delegate lead," all the way to the Democratic convention -- if it comes to that.

Shailagh Murray - No Regrets From Obama The Trail Washington Post 4 Mar 08

Good for you, Obama.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-03-04 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

Wow.  This is terrible.

There isn't any way for Clinton to win the nomination now (unless she wins 20%+ victories in TX and OH today).  But she's now gaining on Obama.

Maybe it's negative advertising or maybe it's just Clintonistas resisting uniting the party behind our nominee.  Either way it means the party isn't getting together and we may face more infighting, especially if Clinton chooses to fight on until Summer.

That's going to make it much harder to beat McCain in the general.

by Brian Watkins 2008-03-04 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Rebounding Nationally As Well?

I voted in one of the states that doesn't count, Colorado. I'm 54 and have never voted for a Republican.  I've seen that Hillary is willing to burn down my Democratic house if she is not the nominee, what she can't win, she'll steal using the Super Delegates.  Guess what?  I'm willing to burn the house.  I'd rather have a President McCain, solidify our Democratic gains in the House and Senate, and wait for 2012. I'm guessing younger voter and a sizable number of African-Americans will see it the same way.

Hillary could win, but it won't be worth much. Promise.  

by btwohorses 2008-03-04 12:43PM | 0 recs
I have no problem

with Clinton carrying on.

My problem is with how she carries on.  I think there are certain rules of decorum for intra-party races.   Highlight your own strengths.  Highlight the differences between you and your opponent.  Attack your opponent's shortcomings.  But you never - UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES - give aid and comfort to the opposition party candidate in the general election.

I think Hillary has crossed that line on occasion, and she's certainly running too close to it.

She can stay in until the convention, but the "3 way comparisons - and Obama is the worst of the 3" needs to stop.

Whether said aloud - BOTH Democrats should be couching their statements, especially their attacks with at least a silent "but s/he'd be better than McCain".

If you want an example on the other side -- Obama should be couching his AUMF attacks from the perspective of "but unlike John McCain, at least she seems to have learned her lesson".

by zonk 2008-03-04 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Expect BIG SURPRISES

If Clinton somehow wins 3 states tonight, We can All Expect some BIGGER Surprises.

Among them,

1) IMMEDIATE Endorsement of Hillary Clinton by JOHN EDWARDS.

Edwards wants to be play a Key role in choosing the nominee. This will be his one & only shot.
The Endorsement & encouraging all his delegates to support Clinton.

Not to mention, Edwards not so warm feeling about Obama for the Fall.

2) Record Breaking March Fundraising for Clinton
( Will surpass her previous record of $35 mill
in February)- She's already had 50,000 online donations in the first three days of March.

A Big win tonight will trigger that.

3) Dramatic Shift in National Polling. It will swing Back to Clinton for good.

4) Dramatic Increase of her Polling Lead in PA.
Her lead in PA will go back to double digits.

5) Many reluctant ( due to heavy pressure from Obama fans) SuperDelegates immediately Endorse Hillary Clinton within the next two weeks

6)Clinton's polling leads in WV,KY & IN all jump to even larger double digit leads.

Its all about tonight !!!

by labanman 2008-03-04 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Expect BIG SURPRISES

keep wishing honey...

by bluedavid 2008-03-04 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Expect BIG SURPRISES

Thanks for sharing your fantasy.

Edwards will endorse Obama, if not soon then by the spring for sure.

by JD Lasica 2008-03-04 05:23PM | 0 recs

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