MI and Republicans
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 03:16:10 AM EDT
Florida being out, all eyes turn to Michigan. There appeared to be a sticking point that Marc Ambinder said "could be a dealbreaker for the Obama campaign in Michigan." That is, the "proposed primary re-vote legislation in Michigan prevents those who've voted in the Republican primary from voting in the re-vote." The update though shows that this cannot be a sticking point, because its against the DNC rules:
The whole debate over Republicans voting in the Dem primary seems to have shifted to favoring Clinton now more than Obama-- in order to further the primary mess. Here's a look how the upcoming states break down in terms of their makeup:
If Republicans and conservative independents continue their tactical voting, it may be more likely in Indiana, Montana, and Puerto Rico, which allow anyone to vote, and possibly in North Carolina and West Virginia, which open their primaries to Democrats and independent voters.
Delegate-wise, Obama is right on the verge of over-taking Clinton's most optimistic count, that includes FL & MI. That lead could be important if Obama, assuming that if he's in the same position then that his is right now with the numbers, and wants to avoid a conflict by going ahead with seating those states regardless of their standing. Clinton is likely to pull back ahead with PA, but here's where it stands right now:
Available delegates remaining: 959 Needed to Win: 2208 Hillary Clinton: 1686 Barack Obama: 1685 Uncommitted: 55 John Edwards: 31