New Mexico Results Thread

Here's a thread to follow the New Mexico results, which, as it's a caucus, should go to Obama. Looks like the Hispanic factor has made it even this competitive for Clinton.

New Mexico (38% reporting)

Barack Obama 26,120 (48 percent)
Hillary Clinton 25,747 (48 percent)

Update [2008-2-6 2:32:30 by Jerome Armstrong]:85 percent reporting. Obama 59,905, Clinton 59,000

Update [2008-2-6 3:10:58 by Jerome Armstrong]:"Obama 63,030, Clinton 62,802 with 95 percent reporting. And the number of provisionals is 6200."

Tags: New Mexico, Super Tuesday (all tags)

Comments

34 Comments

Re: New Mexico Results Thread

I've read that this is really a primary masquerading as a caucus. Can someone back me up?

The exit polls look really good for Obama.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primari es/results/epolls/index.html#NMDEM

He dominates the non-latino vote and tie Clinton among female voters.

by DPW 2008-02-05 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

You're right.  It's complicated.  But it's basically a primary.  Here is how it was explained to work to me by a local reporter:

This is how the delegates break down. Six are allotted to Congressional District 1, 5 for District 2, Six for District 3. There are six at-large for statewide vote done by statewide vote. Three go to statewide leaders. Twelve are superdelegates.

by fbihop 2008-02-05 09:45PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

It's called a caucus, but functionally it's a primary, with limited hours--noon to 7 pm.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-05 08:56PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Can't help but notice on CNN that 23 people died in tornadoes in the Upper South.  God bless them at this time.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-05 08:57PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Caucuses go for Obama, eh?  Was Nevada a primary and no one told me?  This state has more latinos than any other, there is no way Clinton won't win it.

by skipos 2008-02-05 09:03PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

In many respects, NV was a primary. Turnout in NV actually exceeded the most recent statewide Dem primary, and because the field was narrowed in effect to 2 candidates by caucus day, 2nd-choice votes won during reallignment were not a factor.

Still, your point is valid that NV is an exception to an otherwise consistent pattern.

by desmoulins 2008-02-05 09:11PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

NH was only 39-37.  Not exactly a ringing endorsement of that theory either.  Nor Obama's winning Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, or Connecticut.

by Sandwich Repairman 2008-02-05 09:38PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

14-8 Obama
100,000 vote lead for Clinton
Delegates essentially even.
Unexpected wins for Obama - CT & MO
Nice wins for Obama - MN, NM, DE
Unexpected wins for Hillary - None
Nice wins for Hillary - Mass, NJ, CA, AZ

Crazy night.  

by cswartout 2008-02-05 09:05PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

I guess this is a primary.

But can anyone explain to me why Hillary's campaign organized so poorly in these caucuses?

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 09:12PM | 0 recs
good question

I always hear about the vaunted obama ground game. maybe hrc never expected stiff challenges and was simply unprepared?

by highgrade 2008-02-05 09:17PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

This is the flaw in their campaign. They are a top down organization, relying on institutional support (thousands of favors since 1990 being called in to every politician on their rolodex).

Obama's organization is more grassroots, relying on committed supporters to get to voters rather than politicians. His style of organization seems to create excitement that works in a caucus environment.

That said, will Hillary's built in support be enough? History says yes, but this is like nothing I have ever seen.

by cswartout 2008-02-05 09:19PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

She's going to have to start preparing for the later states now and assume this thing will go on to the end.

I also think Obama was lucky in some sense that a lot of the caucus and smaller states voted on one night. I think Hillary could have pulled these a little closer had they been spread out over the calendar.

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 09:26PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Explain how that works?  More time favors Obama, not Clinton.  She's the one who was leading the polls in all the states she lost tonight.

by Sandwich Repairman 2008-02-05 09:40PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

For the small states I'm talking about. More time is definitely good for Obama in the larger states.

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 10:04PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

But in that case, how did Obama win Delaware, Alaska, North Dakota, Kansas, Connecticut, and Idaho?  He only had one week to campaign in all those states after winning SC.

by Sandwich Repairman 2008-02-05 10:07PM | 0 recs
But he hit 'em

He does a huge rally in Boise - and he wins 80%.

He does a DE rally - and wins by 10.  He does KS - he wins 3 to 1.  

PA, OH, and TX are bigger -- but Obama can absolutely park himself in one.... and I think he jsut needs to win/tie one of them.

by zonk 2008-02-05 10:24PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Exactly, that's my point. He did a good job in small and caucus states, that didn't require much campaigning. I think it helped him that there were a lot of them in one night, because Hillary just doesn't do as well in the small states unless she can go to them and campaign for weeks.

by Progressive America 2008-02-06 05:10AM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

It's not a caucus at all, just a regular primary vote.

Here are the latest numbers:

Obama 30,748
Clinton 30,641

by Alex Flores 2008-02-05 09:15PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

man, the results are coming out as slow as molasses. IT seems like every hour they'll post a little update. I heard they had a lot of bad weather there today, so maybe that's the problem.

by mecarr 2008-02-05 09:16PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

They ran out of ballots at one point and had huge lines too. Luckily I have a lot to do tonight so I can keep watching, or maybe its I have a lot to keep doing tonight since I keep watching.

by danIA 2008-02-05 09:30PM | 0 recs
Why are the results so slow if it's past midnight

in NM and this is a caucus?

I thought caucus results were generally really damn fast to be reported because they'd already been summed up during the show of hands.

by verasoie 2008-02-05 09:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Why are the results so slow if it's past midni

From the Democratic Party of New Mexico website:

How does New Mexico's Caucus compare to Iowa's Caucus?

New Mexico will employ a different type of caucus than the traditional one used
by Iowa.  Democratic voters will be able to cast absentee ballots from January
12th to January 28th, 2008.  On February 5th, 2008, Caucus sites will be open
from noon until 7:00 PM (voters in line at 7:00 PM will be allowed to vote after the
polls close).  Voters will simply cast a ballot at the Caucus site and then leave,
much like voting in a regular election.

by Alex Flores 2008-02-05 09:18PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Latest:

Statewide, 85 percent reporting.

Clinton 59,000
Obama 59,905.  

Obama up less than 1000.

h/t LP: www.nmfbihop.com

by Alex Flores 2008-02-05 09:20PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Can someone tell me why Hispanics seem to be voting overwhelmingly for Clinton. Is it just that Obama has not really made an overt attempt to court them? I don't see any real policy differences. And Clinton hasn't exactly been a champion of Hispanics or immigrants. Just curious.

Clinton: "Anybody who committed a crime in this country or in the country they came from has to be deported immediately, with no legal process.  "should be deported, no questions asked."...
"You put them on a plane to wherever they came from."

by thirdeye99 2008-02-05 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Wow!  If Obama pulls that off it'll be a great send-off for Texas next month!

by Drummond 2008-02-05 09:30PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Obama's lead grows slightly. Obama 63,030, Clinton 62,802 with 95 percent reporting.

by mecarr 2008-02-05 09:35PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Wait a minute--Hillary can do so much better among Hispanics, but New Mexico with more Hispanics than any other states, 43%, is still too close to call with 95% reporting??

Hm.

Indeed.

Chin-wag.

by Sandwich Repairman 2008-02-05 09:36PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

According the most recent update from the site referred to by Alex Flores:

Obama 63,030, Clinton 62,802 with 95 percent reporting.

http://www.nmfbihop.com/showDiary.do?dia ryId=707

Jesus, this is close. The author over there seems to believe we won't have final results until the morning.

by DPW 2008-02-05 09:37PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

just read that there are still 8600 provisional ballots out...i'm going to bed.

by mecarr 2008-02-05 09:37PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

I read 6200. Either way, it's enough to make a difference, assuming they are legit ("provisional" means different things in different places).

by DPW 2008-02-05 09:40PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

It's 6200.  I was previously misinformed that it was 8400.

Either way, it looks like those will decide it.  There are about 8 outstanding polling stations still, including one from Rio Arriba County where there was a massive snowstorm (3 feet of snow).

by fbihop 2008-02-05 09:48PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread
MSNBC now has clinton in the lead  ... but that could change
clinton 49%
obama 47%
by Jack Frost 2008-02-05 10:16PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

Either way I imagine this is a 13 all split

by cityblue 2008-02-05 11:40PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico Results Thread

The latest, Clinton 66,173,Obama 65,963 with 98% counted.
by abudho 2008-02-06 09:28AM | 0 recs

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