Early, Early Exit Polls
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 01:23:44 PM EST
Now we play the waiting game... Aww, the waiting game's no fun. Let's play "Early, Early Exit Polls."
Update [2008-2-5 18:20:52 by Jonathan Singer]: This just came across my desk. I can't vouch for them, and take them with a giant grain of salt (and note that the numbers may not always add up to 100 because of rounding)...
Second Wave Numbers
Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37
Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45
Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26
Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45
Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42
Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26
Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48
Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46
New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47
New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43
Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31
Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41.1
First Wave Numbers
California: Clinton 50, Obama 47
New Mexico: Obama 52, Clinton 47
Utah: Obama 61, Clinton 40
Jim Geraghty has the Republican numbers, and I'll try to digest what we see above in a bit...
My first word of exit poll results says that the first two waves of results in Massachusetts show a "dead heat" between Hillary and Obama, and a 20-point margin for Romney among Republicans.
In the Democratic races, Barack Obama led among black voters and Hillary Rodham Clinton led among Hispanic voters. Obama led among white men, while Clinton led among white women. Overall, Obama led among men and Clinton led among women, although her advantage among women appeared smaller than was seen in early primary states. In the Republican races, John McCain led among men. He had only a small lead over Romney among women.
The Democratic electorate was a bit younger than Republican primary-goers. More than one in 10 Democratic voters were under age 30 and one in five were over age 65. Among GOP primary voters fewer than one in 10 were under 30 and a quarter were over 65.
I might hopefully ~cross my fingers~ get some numbers soon, too. For now, this is what we've got. What say you?