California is for guessers
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:26:16 AM EST
Clinton Obama Other UndecidedMonday SUSA 53 41 4 2 Zogby 40 46 5 9Tuesday SUSA 52 42 4 2 Zogby 36 49 6 9The winner doesn't really matter much in the delegate count, in fact a lead of just a handful delegates in the state is most likely if race is within a few percentages. But if I have to choose who is right, I'm going with Clinton taking CA, for a couple of reasons.
First, the last time Zogby showed a late surge for Obama, in New Hampshire, it was because he didn't have an indication as to which way the undecideds were to go, and they all went to Clinton. Once again, he has a high number of undecideds that he's not pushed, which leave large room for built in error.
Second, among Latinos, Zogby says Obama "has dramatically cut into Clintons lead among Hispanic voters". SUSA shows Clinton leading among latinos by a 67-31 percent margin. A good reason to believe SUSA over Zogby is this 3rd party validator, New American Dimensions:
The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, two days before three of the five largest Hispanic states hold primaries on Super Tuesday. Combined, these three states account for nearly 45% of all Hispanics.
One of these polling outfits has the wrong model; either Clinton is up by 10 percent, or Obama is up by 13 percent, or maybe Rasmussen, which calls it a 45-44 lead by Obama with 5 percent undecided, 5 percent saying there's a good chance they could change their mind, and 19% say they might change, is right.
What this reflects is a deep-seated likability for both of the candidates. There seems to be a lot of 'I like them both' voter attitudes. I've not seen a poll yet, but my guess is that a lot of Democrats would like to see them both on the ticket at this point, but if they had to choose one at the top of the ticket, it'd be Clinton that wins a majority because of the 'experience' factor.