California is for guessers

See this post as a follow-up to Jonathan's below, on California; either Zogby or SurveyUSA will have a huge amount of egg to clean up.

            Clinton      Obama       Other      UndecidedMonday
SUSA        53           41          4          2
Zogby       40           46          5          9Tuesday
SUSA        52           42          4          2
Zogby       36           49          6          9
The winner doesn't really matter much in the delegate count, in fact a lead of just a handful delegates in the state is most likely if race is within a few percentages. But if I have to choose who is right, I'm going with Clinton taking CA, for a couple of reasons.

First, the last time Zogby showed a late surge for Obama, in New Hampshire, it was because he didn't have an indication as to which way the undecideds were to go, and they all went to Clinton. Once again, he has a high number of undecideds that he's not pushed, which leave large room for built in error.

Second, among Latinos, Zogby says Obama "has dramatically cut into Clinton’s lead among Hispanic voters". SUSA shows Clinton leading among latinos by a 67-31 percent margin. A good reason to believe SUSA over Zogby is this 3rd party validator, New American Dimensions:

New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton leads Illinois Senator Barack Obama 60% to 18% in California, 77% to 15% in New York, and 52% to 26% in Illinois, based on the results of a new poll conducted by New American Dimensions.

The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday, two days before three of the five largest Hispanic states hold primaries on Super Tuesday. Combined, these three states account for nearly 45% of all Hispanics.

I do find a few things lacking with SUSA as well. It shows Obama winning the 18-34 age group by only a 50-46 margin. And one interesting caveat by SUSA: "For Obama to win in CA, he needs a larger turnout among males and African Americans than SurveyUSA's results indicate he will get." SUSA shows a much higher indication of Latinos voting, 26 percent of the electorate, than blacks, 9 percent. That probably is reflective of the large amount of high-profile courting that's occurred.

One of these polling outfits has the wrong model; either Clinton is up by 10 percent, or Obama is up by 13 percent, or maybe Rasmussen, which calls it a 45-44 lead by Obama with 5 percent undecided, 5 percent saying there's a good chance they could change their mind, and 19% say they might change, is right.

What this reflects is a deep-seated likability for both of the candidates. There seems to be a lot of 'I like them both' voter attitudes. I've not seen a poll yet, but my guess is that a lot of Democrats would like to see them both on the ticket at this point, but if they had to choose one at the top of the ticket, it'd be Clinton that wins a majority because of the 'experience' factor.

Tags: 2008 election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

42 Comments

how many women in the sample

for each of these polls?

I find it impossible to believe that Obama will carry the 18-34 age group by that small a margin, so that makes me think SUSA's sample is off.

However, Zogby's projected lead for Obama doesn't seem credible either.

by desmoinesdem 2008-02-05 06:31AM | 0 recs
Re: how many women in the sample

I hate to say it, I think Rassmussen is closest.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-05 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: how many women in the sample

I hate to say it, I think Rassmussen is closest.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-05 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

Also important to note is the fact that Zogby only polls in English.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:31AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

... and I also see he is project women voters at 52%. WTF is that? They were almost 60% in all other contests and there is a female candidate on the presidential ballot.

I suspect Zogby is doing this just to get some media time. In the end, no one will want to revisit their own folly so Zogby won't be punished too badly.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 07:02AM | 0 recs
I just voted in East LA

For Clinton.  Turnout was light at around 7:30, but, in the words of Hillary in South Carolina, "we're just getting warmed up."

The turnout from her rally was tremendous, and I can't help but believe that Clinton will take California because she rules the Southland and will split the Bay Area and other areas with Obama.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-05 06:32AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

Another worthwhile point is that in the SUSA poll they break out those who already voted and those support Clinton by 12% which I think is pretty indicative.

It means that, assuming that 40% have already voted (as is projected) Obama would need a 10% lead in CA among today's voters to make up the difference.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:35AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

I think Hillary wins CA, but by less than 5%, which is big for Obama seeing she was up 20, 10 days ago.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-05 11:38AM | 0 recs
Funny

The same two polling outfits show a reverse lead situation for McCain/Romney in CA, where McCain has 1-point lead in SUSA, while Romney has a seven point lead in Zogby....

One must be wrong!

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-05 06:48AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

I just do not see how Obama can win CA by 13 points.

1. Absentee ballots favor Hillary (some estimates 30-40% of total vote)

  1. Hispanics outnumber African Americans in CA by 2:1 and they hugely favor Hillary
  2. Women hugely favor Hillary (57% of total vote)
  3. Hillary almost ties Obama with White Men
  4. Independents (~18%) may hugely favor Obama but they have to jump through some hoops in order to vote.  Its not like caucasing in Iowa.
  5. So far media has given all the credit to Obama for bringing new voters

It may be close but I have hard time seeing how Obama can win by 13 points.

by Opandora 2008-02-05 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

Um Zogby has Obama by 6 points.  SUSA has clinton by 12.  I'm not sure where you are getting 13 from... but I don't think ANYONE thinks Obama can win CA by 13 points.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-05 11:44AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

The Zogby Tuesday numbers Jerome has above show Obama up by 13. That's clearly insane, but apparently someone believes it.

by KCinDC 2008-02-05 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

i hope Romney wins CA... just because

by atomic garden 2008-02-05 06:51AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

Differences:

Zogby is a tracking poll and SUSA's not.

Zogby's tracking poll's have been remarkably good this primary season. They missed in NH, but so did everybody else.

SUSA has had some bad California state poll's.
Election 2000 Last week of the election, they had Gore up by only 2 pts. Gore won the state by 11 pts.

Baed upon Zogby's track record, I can not believe that they would go so far out on the limb to predict this margin.

I have not seen any other poll's in california that confirms SUSA'S POLL.

Rasmussen has Obama UP BY 1 PT and the RCP AVG: IS 1.2 PTS oBAMA.

Intrade; Obama 70 to Clinton's 46 for CA.

by BDM 2008-02-05 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

- The latest SUSA poll is from yesterday so it's more current then Zogby.

- The SUSA poll breaks out 'already voted' with a 12% Clinton lead. Zogby does not even say if he is polling 'already voted'.

- Zogby has 52% female vote. Average this cycle has been 57.5%.

- Zogby has 16% Latino vote, SUSA has 27%. (I think both are off, but it's only a 3-4% swing either way).

by kristoph 2008-02-05 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

correct, they both cover the same period and are both essentially tracking polls with the same sample size

One difference is that Zogby has a 15% undecided rate, while SUSA has 6%.

In fact, if all the SUSE undecideds went to Obama and all the Zogby undecideds went to Clinton then the difference between these polls would be 1%.

So actually they could both be correct :-)

by kristoph 2008-02-05 07:12AM | 0 recs
Polls Schmolls!

Polling is good to show TRENDS...not accuracy anymore (so it seems).  Consider this:

It's not the race or gender of the Captain that best predicts the success of a ship's voyage.  It is the navigated COURSE and the VISION of the Skipper that predicates the vessel's journey.  There is only one candidate that has shown leadership and unity and an innate integrity that we need to command and guide our nation into a new age...that candidate is Barack Obama.

Go Vote for 'bama!

by a gunslinger 2008-02-05 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

he actually hasn't shown me ANY of those traits, any you sound like a cult member

by atomic garden 2008-02-05 06:54AM | 0 recs
WHY are HRC-supporters on this site SO Angry?

Listen atomic garden, in my opinion, and in the opinion of a very diverse and realtively intelligent/moderate (and ever-expanding) voting group, he DOES exhibit those qualities.  You can disagree if you want, but you don't have to do it with a snarky or nasty comment.

That is why Obama is in the position of dethroning the would-be Queen... where his campaign has been couched in honest dicussion, inspiration, and ideas, HER campaign's honest discussions have been marred by name calling, apalling tactics, and a sense of entitlement which justifies any kind of behavior.

You'd make Ann Coulter proud Atomic Garden.

by a gunslinger 2008-02-05 07:17AM | 0 recs
why do Obama supporters lack self-awareness?

"HER campaign's honest discussions have been marred by name calling,"

"dethroning the would-be Queen"

by souvarine 2008-02-05 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: why do Obama supporters lack self-awareness?

It is HER campaign, just as BO's campaign is HIS campaign.  What is wrong with that?  As for my characterization of her a a "would-be queen", I am merely referring to her exhibted sense of entitlement to the nomination, not my feelings on her gender.

Unlike HRC, I am seeing this race as a gender and race nuetral contest.  It's not the race or gender of the captain..it's the wisdom and the course set by the skipper that matters.

by a gunslinger 2008-02-05 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

"But if I have to choose who is right, I'm going with Clinton taking CA....."

Armstrong picks Clinton. No surprise there.

"For Clinton.  Turnout was light at around 7:30, but, in the words of Hillary in South Carolina, "we're just getting warmed up.""

SC probably isn't the best model to use a rallying cry for Clinton.

by Liberal Avenger 2008-02-05 06:56AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

I'm glad he's picking Clinton. This idea that Obama is a lock for winning California is insane and is setting up completely unrealistic expectations that help Clinton.

by KCinDC 2008-02-05 07:11AM | 0 recs
I just read

over at Dkos that "James" Zogby is a superdelegate for Obama.

by kevin22262 2008-02-05 06:56AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

...we love 'em both, but can either one beat McCain?

by mikelow1885 2008-02-05 06:59AM | 0 recs
Well

According to the recent batch of national polling, yes.  Most recent first.

CNN/Opinion Research:

Obama 52, McCain 45
Clinton 50, McCain 47

Cook Political Report:

Obama 45, McCain 43
McCain 45, Clinton 41

ABC/WaPo:

McCain 50, Clinton 45
McCain 48, Clinton 47

Fox News:

McCain 45, Clinton 44
Obama 44, McCain 43

by Ben P 2008-02-05 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

I wouldn't try to pick Califonia. Clinton has the early voting on her side, while Obama has some late momentum. We'll see. My hunch is it won't be more than +3 point victory either way.  

by Christopher Lib 2008-02-05 07:00AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

Here are the most recent polls for California:

Zogby
Obama 49 - Clinton 36

SurveyUSA
Obama 42 - Clinton 52

Suffolk
Obama 40 - Clinton 39

Rasmussen
Obama 45 - Clinton 44

UP-DATED Intrade 64.5 Obama  49.9 Clinton

I believe turn out will be the key.

I am picking Obama TO TAKE CA. He has this season out-performed the poll's except NH where he hit the exact polling avg. Clinton has generally un-der performed in all of the contests except for NH.

However who knows.

by BDM 2008-02-05 07:04AM | 0 recs
NAD vs SUSA in IL

But, the NAD poll has very different results from Survey USA in Illinois; SUSA says Obama leads Clinton among Hispanics by more than the white margin.

by niq 2008-02-05 07:02AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

I gave up on polls in this election weeks ago. No one knows whats going to happen in ANY state. This year polls don't matter

by rossinatl 2008-02-05 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: California differences between SUSA and Zogby

SUSA HAS hISPANIC'S MAKING UP 27% of the primary electorate and Zogby has it at 16%

In the 2004 Democratic primary, Latinos made up 16% of the electorate. I'd expect it to be 18% to 20% this time, so Zogby is likely closer to the mark.

That is what accounts for a big part of the differences between the two polls.

by BDM 2008-02-05 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: California differences between SUSA and Zogby

Yet at the same time Zogby seems to be undersampling women. It will be close either way.

by conspiracy 2008-02-05 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

either Zogby or SurveyUSA will have a huge amount of egg to clean up.

I'm betting there'll be enough egg to go around. If the vote is close, then both are wrong.

by KCinDC 2008-02-05 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

Obama wins California by 1.6 percentage points. Those who live on the east coast will be up until 1 am watching these results come into the media outlets.

by Djneedle83 2008-02-05 07:10AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

So tell me how in my home state of CT (Obama is virtually tied with women against Clinton), but in California/Massachusetts he's getting blownout by 25% plus percentage points?

by Djneedle83 2008-02-05 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

The women in Connecticut are much smarter and better informed?  ;-)  Sorry couldn't resist.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-05 11:42AM | 0 recs
Zogbys #s look wrong

He leads Clinton big among both men (55% to her 29%) and women (45% to her 42%). He leads among all age groups except among those age 65 and older, where Clinton holds a slim edge. He leads among both moderates and progressives, but those mainline liberal Democrats still favor Clinton by a very narrow margin. This two-day tracking survey included 895 likely voters and carried a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

A 55/29 split in male vote is unheard of. I don't think this will pan put Obama is not leading by 2:1 amongst men in California.

by bayareasg 2008-02-05 07:28AM | 0 recs
Parsing the Latino vote

My Texas polls have shown Obama 'dramatically cut' a 10-1 Clinton lead among Latinos to a 2-1 Clinton lead. That's consistent with Zogby's comment and SUSA's xtabs, so both could be accurate.

The 16% v 27% weighting, at a 2-1 Clinton advantage would move the gap ~four points out of the eighteen point difference. It would take quite a bit more to explain the other fourteen point swing.

by IVR Polls 2008-02-05 07:37AM | 0 recs
Illinois

New American Dynamics is dead wrong on Illinois. Obama has huge support among Latinos in Illinois, which SUSA and other polling outfits have picked up.  

by elrod 2008-02-05 07:51AM | 0 recs
I don't blame the Pollsters

Because there is no model.
Look at the polling this season. On the republican side it has been fairly good. Also Clinton's numbers have in general been a pretty good reflection if you consider late breakers.
What has been almost impossible for pollsters to determine is Obama's numbers and turnout.
Why? Because Obama's support is weak at this point in the cycle. A much smaller percentage of Clinton's supporters are willing to change their minds.

As an aside. Will we begin to get an idea of how each candidate will help down ticket today? Looking at who comes out of contested down ticket primary/caucus races in say Minnesota.

by Judeling 2008-02-05 08:11AM | 0 recs
Re: I don't blame the Pollsters

Too bad exit polling and data doesn't support your hypothesis on Obama's so called soft support.  He has gotten more same deciders in most of the contests except for NH.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-05 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: California is for guessers

I just want to point out Rasmussen and Zogby have been more accurate than SUSA has this cycle.  SUSA has a report card on their front page.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-05 11:30AM | 0 recs

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