Primary Morn

Where we stand right now (source for poll closing times and delegate count: this handy WaPo chart)...

StateTypeDelegatesPolls Close (EST)RCPPollster
Georgiaprimary877pmObama +15Obama +13.5
Connecticutprimary488pmClinton +4Clinton +1.8
Delaware*primary158pmClinton +2
Alabamaprimary528pmClinton +2Clinton +1.5
Illinoisprimary1538pmObama +33Obama +36
Massachusettsprimary938pmClinton +12.2Clinton +11.1
Missouriprimary728pmClinton +4Clinton +1.4
New Jerseyprimary1078pmClinton +7Clinton +10.2
Oklahomaprimary388pmClinton +29.3
Tennesseeprimary688pmClinton +13Clinton +17
Arkansasprimary358:30pm
Arizonaprimary569pmClinton +6Clinton +10.6
Minnesota*caucus729pmClinton +7
New Mexico*caucus269pmObama +6
New Yorkprimary2329pmClinton +17.2Clinton +19.4
North Dakotacaucus139pm
Kansascaucus329:30pm
Utahprimary2310pmClinton +8
Idahocaucus1810:30pm
Californiaprimary37011pmClinton +2.6Clinton +6.8
Alaskacaucus1311:15pm
Colorado*caucus5511:30pmObama +2Obama +2

*based on only one 2008 poll

Note that Obama is favored in the un-polled caucus states. Anything to add? Care to make predictions? How many states does each win? How many delegates? Which way will CA, CT, MO and NJ go?

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Democratic nomination, Super Tuesday (all tags)

Comments

79 Comments

Good job, Todd

Your chart shows both (or either) RCP and pollster averages putting Hillary on top in these states:

Connecticut
Delaware
Alabama
Massachusetts
Missouri
New Jersey
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Arizona
Minnesota
New York
Utah
California

A state where neither RCP nor pollster has an average is Arkansas, but I think we can safely put that in Hillary's column. If that's what happens, Hillary gets 14 states, including the big prizes of California, New York, and New Jersey.

Either or both RCP and pollster has Obama up in these states:

Georgia
Illinois
New Mexico
Colorado

There is no polling average presented for the following states, but they may prove to be Obamaland:

Arkansas
North Dakota
Kansas
Idaho
Alaska

So if all these trends and speculations all proved true, Hillary will wind up with 14 states and Obama will wind up with nine states. Under this scenario, in General Elections, Hillary's states mostly tend to be blue and Obama's mostly tend to be red. Interestingly, Hillary gets all the big Super Tuesday states except Illinois, where Obama has the hometown advantage.

by Beltway Dem 2008-02-05 12:55AM | 0 recs
Can the tail wag the dog?

If Obama wins 9 states, most of them on the small side, and the red side with the exception of IL, can he convince Democrats that he "won" today?

The media will spin it has a tie at worst.

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-05 03:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Can the tail wag the dog?

of cause they will spin it for obama

by JoeySky18 2008-02-05 06:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Good job, Todd

Too many undecideds to make this kind of a call. Remember what happened in NH: last minute deciders threw off the pollsters.

by shergald 2008-02-05 04:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Good job, Todd

The internal polling for both camps says NM is likely to go to Clinton, with UT favoring Obama.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 05:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Good job, Todd

Where did you here this?

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 06:01AM | 0 recs
The only prediction I will hazard

is that all of these states will break one way.

There are three distinct phases to the last 15 days of the campaign:

1. Pre-SC : Clinton lead by AT LEAST 20 in most states, and by 15-25 nationally.

2. Post SC and Kennedy bounce, which got Obama to between 5 and 10 Nationally. The average bounce in the states was 13.8 - which was enough to get him within striking distance in many states. However, he was still behind by 5 - 13 in NJ, MO, MA, Ariz, California and perhaps MA.

The evidence for this bounce is consistant, and the polls are in general agreement.

3. Post CA debate Here is evidence is clear as mud. Some polling suggests Obama's SC surge continued, some suggest it halted. There is little evidence of a Clinton surge (the Survey USA polls show minor Obama improvement from their polls taken Jan 30 - but only a point or two).

So let's revisit exit polling for a second. The table below shows when voters made up their mind in the past. Given the lack of information that most voters possessed and when this campaign began in places like Minnesota, I would guess we are looking at as much volatility as New Hampshire: where nearly 40% made up their mind in the last 72 hours.

Given the national nature of this campaign I would think any trend will likely be consistent across almost all of the States (I think California may be the exception).

My guess is that late deciders will turn out to favor Clinton, and as a result Clinton will win all but Illinois, Georgia and some of the smaller states (like Utah). I expect this will give Clinton a large lead: enough to effectively end the race.

I very much hope I am wrong.

 

% decided
in last 72 hours
% decided on
the day of
Iowa 11 9
New hampshire 21 17
Nevada 8 9
SC 10 11
by fladem 2008-02-05 06:12AM | 0 recs
Re: The only prediction I will hazard

I suspect you are right about states breaking one way, but I am much less confident Clinton will benefit. I think your theory of the election, momentum, is wrong, partly because self-reported "when I made up my mind" is very unreliable. Panel back studies show that people who claim to have decided late supported who they voted for long before the election. I do believe that events can give voters new information and a reason to re-evaluate who to vote for.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 06:28AM | 0 recs
Re: The only prediction I will hazard

Chuck Todd says undecided will break for Obama. He has no numbers to back this up, it's just a theory.

SurveyUSA has a CA poll which showed some undecideds breaking for Obama, and none for Clinton.

SurveyUSA has another poll, in MO, where the undecideds broke decisively for Clinton.

So I would suggest this may be a state by state affair.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Check out these forecasts.

You left out Minnesota.

I've got Clinton by 70 delegates. I think the realm of possibilities is anything between 25 delegates and 140 delegates. It mostly depends on the results in CA/AZ/NM, but also MO,MN,CT, and NJ.

by niq 2008-02-05 01:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

The latest (today) SurveyUSA is out for MO. The undecideds broke for Clinton. She has a 12% lead there now.

MO is supposed to be a bellwether. I wonder if that is indicative of the western states.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:07AM | 0 recs
Where's American Samoa?

You forgot American Samoa. Results from there will probably be known before California.

Democrats Abroad also kicked off Super Tuesday (at 12:01 a.m. Jakarta time), but results won't be known there at least until all the Internet voting closes on February 12th. There are 7 elected delegates at stake in that contest, although it's weird because it's actually 14 people, each with half a full vote.  So you could end up with something like 4.5 for Obama and 2.5 for Clinton. Let's hope it won't come down to half delegates. :-)

by BBCWatcher 2008-02-05 01:28AM | 0 recs
Details on American Samoa

It's a caucus. I think American Samoa may actually report first (if they're fast) since the caucuses start at about 5 pm Eastern.

by BBCWatcher 2008-02-05 01:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Details on American Samoa

I believe CNN said we will know their results at 6:30 PM.

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 04:39AM | 0 recs
The winner of the Dem primary

will be determined by superdelegates in the end.

by puma 2008-02-05 01:35AM | 0 recs
Re: The winner of the Dem primary

Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for us...

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 01:49AM | 0 recs
Whoever wins California today wins the nomination

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-05 03:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Whoever wins California today wins the nominat

A week ago I think that was true.  But I think there is a chance that California will be so close that it won't be convincing.  And since it will be one of the last states to have results come in, a lot of the coverage and themes of the evening will have been shaped before we know (if it is close).  And, if it is close, that won't be enough to overcome what people want to say about the night.

A blow out in California either way would still be decisive for the nomination, I agree.

by rcipw 2008-02-05 04:21AM | 0 recs
Whoever wins Cali today

Will probably do very well and win AZ, NJ, MN, CO, MA, and CT, among others.

The Party is not going to nominate someone who has lost in states like CA, MA, and NJ.  

The only way to survive a CA loss is to win those other big states, but I don't think that will happen.  I think you will see whoever wins Cali todays cleans up nationally, and take a solid majority of the contests.

The it doesn't matter if that person leads by 100 delegates, trails by 15, whatever.  The party is going to nominate the person who wins these key states.

by dpANDREWS 2008-02-05 04:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Whoever wins Cali today

I really dont understand your logic.

This is a primary, not a general election campaign!

Loosing a democratic primary in these states, doesnt mean squat how the general will turn out.

No republican has a chance in MA and CA, even Kucinich would win CA and MA.

by MarcTGFG 2008-02-05 05:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Whoever wins Cali today

I agree with that. Although psychologically you would think if Clinton wins NY, NJ, MA, CA that would mean something.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 05:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Whoever wins California today wins the nominat

I am Clinton supporter and even though I think Clinton will win I don't think that it means she has a lock on the nomination.

In the end, I think no one will have a decisive victory.

Incidentally, I heard that Clinton polled about 3k RV's in CA yesterday. Of those about 1200 already voted and she had 17% lead, of those who had not voted she was 2% behind Obama.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 05:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Whoever wins California today wins the nominat

But not all registered voters are likely to vote. How will turnout be today and how close it is and whether or not turnout tops absentee ballots, which most believes Clinton leads will determine the outcome. I hope for the best for Clinton.

You know what funny though, someone sent to my e-mail a "Bible Code" study showing it will be McCain vs. Clinton. Desperation is in the air I say. When we resort to the Bible to predict the outcome of an election, it is trouble.

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 06:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Whoever wins California today wins the nominat

Yeah I had that question (about RV's) but since this came from a chain of people I could not really ask it.

Still a 17% lead of almost 40% of the sample is a good sign.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Predictions for Super- Tuesday Add to Hotlist

by Jr1886, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 02:49:13 AM EST

Here's a prediction thread. The three biggest shocker from my predictions: Obama will win California, Massachusett, and Missouri.

Obama's column( in order of certainty with 1= Most certain & 17 least certain)

11- Alabama
7-  ALaska
10- California
9-  Colorado
12- Connecticut
17- Delaware
8-  Democrats abroad
2-  Georgia
5-  Idaho
1-  Illinois
3-  Kansas
16- Massachusetts
15- Minnesota
14- Missouri
13- New Mexico
4-North Dakota
6-Utah
 So Obama will win 16 states and Democrats abroad. This is huge

Clinton Column(1 most certain &6 least certain)

6- Arizona
2- Arkansas
5- New Jersey
1- New York
4- Oklahoma
3- Tennesse

So Clinton will pick up 6 states

by Jr1886 2008-02-05 02:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Well, there is a poll out from SurveyUSA for MO (just came out 1 hour ago) that shows the undecideds broke for Clinton and she has a 12% lead there now.

So I think MO is probably hers.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

more than one 'optimist'  here I see.. Obama wins 3 states

by atomic garden 2008-02-05 02:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

States, shmates.  Obama holds Clinton to within a hundred delegate margin.  That'll do.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-02-05 02:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Obama has a frightening amount of momentum in CA right now. By all appearances, he's going to win there. Really can't say what's likely to happen with the overall delegate count.

by blueflorida 2008-02-05 02:18AM | 0 recs
Point of inquiry

Why are we obsessed with delegate counts? Are we completely convinced that both of these candidates are prepared to advance this fight all the way to the convention as long as they are within a close delegate range? Further, don't delegate counts obscure what is really important -- namely, which candidate has the greater amount of popular support in the party?

by blueflorida 2008-02-05 02:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Point of inquiry

Well I think the thought goes that Hillary has some of her best states tonight. Obama still has Hawaii, much of the south, and the Beltway, plus the northwestern caucuses. If he keeps it close tonight on the delegate count, I think he wins the nomination.

by Progressive America 2008-02-05 03:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Point of inquiry

It's a weighted distribution...not all delegates are equal, in the sense that even within a single state a delegate acquired in one district may not have required as many raw votes as a delegate acquired in a different district. In a close delegate race, we can't conclusively say whether the candidate with the most delegates is the one with the most actual popular support.

by blueflorida 2008-02-05 05:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Point of inquiry

If the delegate race is very close and Obama continues to outraise her by a significant margin, why wouldn't he stay in? Some of his best states are yet to come. I think he'll hold her to under a 100 delegate margin.

by keatsheart 2008-02-05 04:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

None of us know what will happen, and the pollsters in california are all over the place.  If hillary wins Mass,NY, NJ and Cal she will be the nominee-- and she will have earned it fair and square.  If the democratic race is not settled by tomorrow, then McCain will win the presidency.  If Obama, comes out on top, McCain will also win the presidency.  The Obama approach of not emphasizing substance has never worked in presidential campaigns.  Gary Hart, Bill bradley, Adlai Stevenson all ran campaigns that emphasized bullshit "new politics" themes that simply do not resonate with the typical middle class voter.politics is about fighting over ideas and the nations direction in addressing issues and problems.  There is no such thing as "unity" in a diverse nation of 350 million people.

by Canaanite 2008-02-05 02:57AM | 0 recs
No winner take all in these states

CA, NY, NJ, etc are NOT winner take all thus it is about delegates.

If Hillary wins those states but the delegate count is <100 difference, the media may spin it as an Obama "win".

by puma 2008-02-05 03:01AM | 0 recs
Re: No winner take all in these states

I honestly can't remember the last time the media spun a loss, even a close loss, as a "win."  They didn't spin Hillary's 2nd place in delegate count in Iowa as a "win."  In fact, they spun it as a total loss for her. Obama's campaign will try to spin it that way, but I don't see the contortions to make a close loss into a win actually playing well with the low-information media consumer.

by milton333 2008-02-05 06:30AM | 0 recs
not emphasizing substance has never worked

43.

by Teaser 2008-02-05 06:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Hillary will win decidedly today. Obama will have the young and African American vote in California. Hillary will get Hispanics, Union voters and women.  She wins the nom tonight.

by Mar154 2008-02-05 03:18AM | 0 recs
I want to comment

so I can come back to this statement after the results are in.

by Carl Nyberg 2008-02-05 03:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Survey USA poll might be so off compared to other polls because they overestimated Latino turnout. Essential reading:http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=365

by Jr1886 2008-02-05 03:42AM | 0 recs
Essential reading

From the guy who has been insisting for months that Gore was about to endorse? Who on the day of the Nevada caucus was predicting an Obama win? Who forecast a blowout in NH and Hillary's withdrawal?

Like a stopped clock, he is right only when Obama wins.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 04:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Even if you reduce the Latino vote to less, say 20%, that only reduces Clinton by 4%.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 05:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Survey USA also has Hillary leading among young voters by +3. This is way out of what we thought we know before, that is young people usually favored Obama by 2 to 1.

by Jr1886 2008-02-05 03:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Perhaps not all young people have drank the kool-aid?

by Mar154 2008-02-05 03:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Perhaps but

That's pretty unlikely when all other polls out of the state show obama leading among young voters by a large margin.

One thing we can be sure of, Wednesday morning someone will look pretty bad. And, I must say it's likely to be Survey USA that's screwed up

by Jr1886 2008-02-05 04:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Perhaps but

I think it's likely that BOTH Survey USA and Zogby will have screwed up.  They're both extreme outliers in opposite directions.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-05 04:10AM | 0 recs
THIS IS DRIVING ME FUKKING CRAZY

and I know I'm not the only one :)

by highgrade 2008-02-05 03:54AM | 0 recs
Re: THIS IS DRIVING ME FUKKING CRAZY

I'm with ya.

by souvarine 2008-02-05 03:57AM | 0 recs
Re: California(for what it is worth)

RCP Average 02/01 - 02/04 - 44.0 42.8 Obama +1.2
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/03 - 02/04 895 LV 49 36 Obama +13.0
SurveyUSA 02/03 - 02/04 872 LV 42 52 Clinton +10.0
Suffolk 02/01 - 02/03 700 LV 40 39 Obama +1.0
Rasmussen 02/02 - 02/02 798 LV 45 44 Obama +1.0
See All California Democratic Primary Polling Data
Intrade Market Prices for California Democratic Primary
 Obama Clinton  
Intrade Real Time Quotes   (See More Data )

Obama 70     Clinton 46

by BDM 2008-02-05 03:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

I am not so sure Obama is favored in all caucus states. He won the Iowa caucus, but lost the nevada one. So its a wash.

After Edwards dropping out I really dont have a horse in this race although I have a feeling downticket democrats might fare better with Obama on top of the ticket.

My prediction is a very close race in delegates. And Hillary winning a bare majority of states.

I think Obama will crush Hillary in Illinous, while New York will be surprisingly close.

New Jersey will be closer than expected too.

And Georgia, Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Guam, Missouri, North Dakota, Minnesota and possibly Kansas will be in Obamas colummn.

I think Clinton will win most states with higher latino population, including CA, AZ and NM.

Everybody is talking about CA. But the story I predict out of Super Tuesday might just be: Obama giving Clinton a scare in her home state and neighboring NJ, while Obama crushes Clinton in IL. If CA is close and will be too late for many newspapers to put the final result in their front page stories, the print media will have to find other headlines. Another possibility is, that McCain will be the story of the night.

by MarcTGFG 2008-02-05 04:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Yeah...no. Hillary has an extremely devoted and loyal base of support in NY, and that includes NYC.  She'll rout him in NY.

by Mar154 2008-02-05 04:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

We will see, we will see...

by MarcTGFG 2008-02-05 05:08AM | 0 recs
MO: Long Lines, Rain in Kansas City

At 7:15am in midtown Kansas City there were twenty people who had come out in a cold thunderstorm, almost all asking for the Democratic ballot.  For a normal primary vote in good weather at 7:15 we would usually see 5-7 people.

by Arthurkc 2008-02-05 04:19AM | 0 recs
Re: MO: Long Lines, Rain in Kansas City

How many of the 20 were women?

by antiHyde 2008-02-05 05:14AM | 0 recs
Men to Women, About 50:50

The guy in front of me was asked which ballot he wanted (Blue for Republicans, White for Dems, and Pink for Libertarian) and he said "The one with Clinton on it" and everybody around laughed, perhaps some at the unintended sardonic nature of the question.

by Arthurkc 2008-02-05 05:59AM | 0 recs
Men to Women

At 7:15am there were a number of suits headed to work.  I suspect the gender ratio in my precinct will move more toward female latter in the day, but this is a racially integrated area of activist Democrats, with more Obama signs in the yards than Clinton.

by Arthurkc 2008-02-05 06:02AM | 0 recs
External Factors
I may post my predictions late depending on how the Stock Market does today.
With the bad employment numbers the market could drop dramatically. This could shift late deciders significantly Clinton's way Minnesota, Colorado and New Mexico. Maybe even enough.
by Judeling 2008-02-05 04:32AM | 0 recs
Re: External Factors

Why Clinton's way? Is everyone in a hurry for their job to be shipped overseas instead of eliminated?

by antiHyde 2008-02-05 05:16AM | 0 recs
Re: External Factors

So your saying if we vote for Clinton our jobs will be shipped overseas and if we vote for Obama our jobs will just be eliminated.

What a choice.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:15AM | 0 recs
Re: External Factors

Stinks, doesn't it?

Or, we could vote for McMoreWarsMoreWarsMoreWars...

by antiHyde 2008-02-05 06:40AM | 0 recs
FWIW, New Jersey is an Open primary this year

NJ should definitely be considered an open primary.  I just got back from the polls.  If you are not registered to a party, you can declare at the polls.  It was as simple as the poll worker marking a "D" (or "R") in a box next to your name and that was that.  Since they don't ask for a party when you register and NJ has never had a meaningful primary in my voting lifetime (it used to be in like June), almost no one on the rolls that I saw had an affiliation next to their name, meaning that, at least in my precinct, basically any one could just show up and vote in whatever primary they want.  I'l change my registration back to unaffiliated after the November election.

I have no idea what impact this will have (if any), just sayin'...

by NJIndependent 2008-02-05 04:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

i just want the time to speed up, so we can get results already

by sepulvedaj3 2008-02-05 05:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Not unusually high activity at polls in NJ this morning.  Most of the Democratic Party bigs in NJ are with Clinton, and the machine usually gets what it wants here.  I had a flyer and a call from Hillary, but did not here from O at all.

by Bob H 2008-02-05 05:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

I did a little looking at the Minnesota caucuses.  Turns out the Presidential preference won't be gauged by numbers of delegates, rather, they are having a Presidential Preferrence Ballot that will be counted separately from the delegate selection.  They are doing it first thing.

So, people can just show up at the caucus, vote in the presidential preference, and then leave.  They are even advertising it that way - show up and vote, then leave if you want.

This spares one from all of the boring resoultions, delegate selection,  and real Democratic stuff that we always do at the caucuses.  This is probably bad for the party but good for the candidate whose supporters are most likely to want to show up and just leave.

by eric the red 2008-02-05 05:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Don't be surprised to hear about massive voting problems in GA tonight. The SoS here in GA changed the polling locations and failed to notify the voters of the location of their new precinct. I don't know which candidate this helps or hurts. Also this is the first primary, iirc, that will be adhering to the new voting laws.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-05 05:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Hillary Clinton just called my answering machine.  I picked up the phone and told her to f off, but it turns out it was just a recording.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-05 05:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

With Democrats like you, who needs Republicans?

Classy answer by the way. Would have expected that sort of thing on Michelle Malkin's site.
 

by Mar154 2008-02-05 06:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

See the "independent" in my name?  Know what that means?  I'm NOT a Democrat.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-05 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Being polite is not about party affiliation.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

You people are really kind of dumb.  I didn't really tell anyone to f off.  It was a robocall.  Why would Hillary Clinton personally call me, especially considering there's no chance in hell I would vote for her?

by NJIndependent 2008-02-05 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

You're an idiot.

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 06:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Now a real person from Hillary's campaign just called.  Seriously, how do they get their numbers?  We've never given any money to the Clintons and aren't even Democrats.  And, we're on the no-call list.  Isn't that a violation of some sort?

by NJIndependent 2008-02-05 06:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

No, political organization can ignore the no-call list.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

Great.  So is there any way to get them to stop?  It's really kind of annoying.

by NJIndependent 2008-02-05 06:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

I don't believe any of these polls.  

by orion1 2008-02-05 06:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

As an Obama fan, I completely disagree. I EXPECT Clinton to win California. What would shock me is if Obama won it.

by keatsheart 2008-02-05 06:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn

i'll wait for the final count before i celebrate.

by JoeySky18 2008-02-05 06:22AM | 0 recs
Hillary momentum in Rasmussen internals?

I have been tracking and reverse engineering the Rasmussen daily polling over the past two weeks to see what the daily sampling throws up.

When I did the same to the pre-NH numbers, it turned out that the final-day polling had a dead heat, ie a dramatic shift from BO to HRC. That was hidden among huge numbers for him the two previous days, and did not emerge until after the primary. Bet the Rasmussen guys were kicking themselves :)

Today it looks like the wind could be turning against Obama yet again:

Ras    Polling             Tracker    
    HRC    BO         HRC      BO

25-Jan    40    30          
26-Jan    40    32          
27-Jan    40    31         40      31
28-Jan    42    33         41      32
29-Jan    40    32         41      32
30-Jan    44    41         42      35
31-Jan    46    37         43      37
01-Feb    45    34         45      37
02-Feb    56    43         49      38
03-Feb    38    43         46      40
04-Feb    47    35         47      40

Note: with the exception of the weekend, which was by necessity skewed because of normal Saturday bias as well as the Superbowl, the numbers are remarkably consistent.

by Nordicus 2008-02-05 06:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Primary Morn &amp; Delegates based on Polling?

Hi folks...the horse races in the states are fun to look at .... but what of the projected delegates?  What do the current #'s mean in terms of delegate awards?  

Consider this before you vote: Its not the race or gender of the Captain that best predicts the success of a ship's voyage.  It is the navigated COURSE and the VISION of the Skipper that predicates the vessel's journey.  There is only one candidate that has shown leadership and unity and an innate integrity that we need to command and guide our nation into a new age...that candidate is Barack Obama

Also...consider further...HRC was supposed to have this thing WRAPPED UP.  The fact the Obama has forced the issue to a possible convention decision is A HUGE WIN for him!!!

by a gunslinger 2008-02-05 06:57AM | 0 recs

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