High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Here's the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel:

State election officials expect turnout to be about 35% of the voting-age population, which would rank Wisconsin near the top of states that have voted.

And here's The Honolulu Advertiser:

The Democratic Party of Hawai'i is predicting record turnout at its caucuses tonight and is asking people to be patient in the event of long lines or confusion at the caucus sites.

Caucus turnout has never exceeded 5,000 but party officials believe that figure could double tonight and could reach as high as 12,000. Local volunteers for U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois are suggesting that turnout could even climb into the 15,000 to 18,000 range, which would likely overwhelm party volunteers conducting the presidential preference poll.


Party officials said that more than 1,200 people had joined the party in the weeks before Super Tuesday. But an additional 5,000 people have since signed up as the caucuses became relevant to the Democratic presidential nomination.

While an acrimonious primary between two strong candidates who both have deep and fervent support can potentially make it more difficult for the candidate who emerges from the primary (and I stress "can" because I am not entirely convinced that this is necessarily the case), it's hard to argue with the data showing that the contested nature of this cycle's Democratic primaries are getting Democrats energized in a way we've not really seen before (or at least for a very long time) and bringing a whole lot of new people to the party. In the long term, and even the medium term (and I'm talking the remainder of this cycle, potentially), this is a great sign for the Democratic Party.

Tags: Democratic primaries, Hawaii, Hawaii Caucuses, Wisconsin, Wisconsin Primary (all tags)



Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

The consistently high turnout numbers are, indeed, inspiring.  They point to the fact that Democrats are incredibly excited about both Clinton and Obama.

All signs point to a Democratic rout in November -- unless the Democratic convention looks like 1968.

by chinapaulo 2008-02-19 12:18PM | 0 recs
Hear hear.

The high turnout is quite exciting - for every Democrat, no matter our primary stripes.  It's clear that we have a pair of excellent candidates in whom the voters feel quite invested.  

I'm looking forward to January 2009.

(Though maybe comedy writers are feeling a little queasy - they won't have W around to write their punchlines anymore!)

by mgee 2008-02-19 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii
All Polls show a disastrous loss if Sen. Clinton is our nominee.  
With her as our nominee, its back to a Repub controlled House, and possibly Senate with a McCain in the White House.
by gil 2008-02-19 12:42PM | 0 recs
Yes, exactly. Dig this:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jon-wiener /latest-poll-mccain-beats_b_87213.html

The latest national tracking poll - released today, President's Day - shows John McCain beating Hillary Clinton, 49%-42%. The Rasmussen Reports poll also shows Barack Obama beating McCain 46% to 43%.

by lucky monkey 2008-02-19 01:10PM | 0 recs
Ok, but...

...none of that matters if our turnout stays 30% higher than theirs.

That would turn those numbers into a Clinton win and an Obama rout, wouldn't it?

by tjekanefir 2008-02-19 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

The Right has not yet gotten it's Swiftboating claws into BO, just wait until they spring into action against him, the way they slandered John Kerry. They particularly love when the Dems pick someone who is not that well known to most Americans, they get in there to define the blank slate in their minds with the worst slime.

Hillary Clinton has already been slimed with the worst the Right can throw at her, and she is on the way up again. It sickens me to see members of the Democratic Party throw all the Swiftboaters talking points against her, another one of our lifetime dedicated progressive fighters, doing their dirty work for them. It sounds like many BO supporters actually believe those talking points, they have bought into the Swiftboaters dogma hook, line, and sinker, and are carrying on their tradition of destroying our best, most qualified candidates. Will you turn on BO as soon as they start raising doubts about him, the way you are shafting Hillary Clinton right now? Will I be defending him against your attacks next time?

BO supporters would be better off getting informed on the issues and consider very thoughtfully the likely consequences of the election outcome if someone with barely two years in the Senate, and poorly qualified on both domestic and international affairs, gets our nomination before he can prove to the American people he is qualified to competently manage the office of the presidency. It doesn't look good to me.

by 07rescue 2008-02-19 01:52PM | 0 recs
Low or Late student turnout?

It is interesting the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is reporting that as of 2:00 p.m. the two student polling locations on the UW Madison campus had received 502 and 482 votes respectively.

Maybe many students are planning to vote tonight or off campus, but it is interesting that only 1,000 students had voted so far in Madison.

by rcipw 2008-02-19 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Low or Late student turnout?
Hmm...you kind of cherry picked the story from the article you read. It also stated..
"Polling places in student areas - at the Memorial Library on State St. and in Holt Commons near the lakeshore dorms - was busier than usual, according to elections officials there."
"James Roeber, the chief inspector at Holt Commons, where the polling place was set up on the side of a dining area, said he expected activity to pick up around dinnertime."
by mecarr 2008-02-19 01:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Low or Late student turnout?

I'd bet many students don't vote on campus anyway, they vote where they're from.  Of course, that often means they don't vote at all, but I'm not sure this means much.

by snaktime 2008-02-19 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Low or Late student turnout?

I remember in 2000 we all voted 20 feet away from our dorm rooms. I think that is the normal thing to do. People don't make special trips home to vote. And if they don't vote, then their location doesn't matter. But generally speaking, I think people vote where they live. Students live at or near their universities.

by LandStander 2008-02-19 01:24PM | 0 recs

I thought a lot of these voters were independent.

by Edward3615 2008-02-19 12:23PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Turnout seemed to be going well in Eau Claire, WI, early this afternoon, a steady stream of people, but no need to wait in line (this was after 1pm, so post-lunch hour).

I am hearing of some reports (including through WTMJ) of Republicans voting for Clinton since they think she's the easier candidate to beat.  No idea if this is widespread (I doubt it), but it's out there.

by alphaaqua 2008-02-19 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

I've heard the Ohio Republican Party is planning the same thing there.  It'll be funny if they get their wish and she destroys them!

Hey, I'm an Obama guy but I'd still love the karma if that happened.

by crackerdog 2008-02-19 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Either one of them will destroy John McCain. He's short and old and nobody likes him. I want this nomination fight to be over with asap so we can get on with the business of thoroughly defeating John McCain and the Republican party.

by Jumbo 2008-02-19 12:53PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Right wing talk radio in WI is encouraging voting for Hillary as the "easier" candidate to beat. How many voters are doing that is hard to say.

by elrod 2008-02-19 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Right wing talk radio has not proven to be very influential in this cycle when it comes to moving voters.

by Jumbo 2008-02-19 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

I bet most voters are like this guy...from the Sentinel..
John Urban, a 40-year-old anesthesiologist, said he voted for Obama because the Republican race already seems decided and he doesn't want to give Hillary Clinton a chance in November.

He said he will probably vote for John McCain in the general election, but he also said he would like to learn more about Obama.

by mecarr 2008-02-19 01:05PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Adding up all of the anecdotal accounts I've seen, it seems like the people who will vote for McCain in the fall are pretty evenly split between the two streams of thought.  

by Nissl 2008-02-19 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

So, how can high turnout be spun to favor Hillary?  On this site that's a must.  Hey, you have a few hours until the polls close!  Go for it TeamHillary!  This is your moment in the sun!

by crackerdog 2008-02-19 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Or, moment in the snow.  

by howardpark 2008-02-19 01:33PM | 0 recs

How does 35% rank near the top?  Haven't we been far exceeding this number?  Here in CA we had over 50% turn-out, iirc.

by PeteyP 2008-02-19 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Wisconsin

California had about 7 million votes cast in the Dem and GOP primaries combined.  The voting-age population of California is roughly 27.2 million.

by Steve M 2008-02-19 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Is it just me, or does it seem like something is in the air and there may be an upset tonight? Last night's Gallup Poll showing a net gain of 6 points for Clinton should worry Obama when it comes to how Wisconsin was effected by the story yesterday.

by mecarr 2008-02-19 12:47PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Really, we're so tired of your pro-Hillary site.

She's done.  Toast.  

And frankly, with two daughters, the LAST person I want in the White House is Bill Clinton.

by once4hillary 2008-02-19 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

With the Republican give-away comment you made, the once4hillary signature doesn't ring true (now, does it?)

by christinep 2008-02-19 01:51PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Actually, it's true.  I was once for Hillary, but her campaign has reminded me of everything I didn't like about the Clinton years.


by once4hillary 2008-02-19 04:18PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Just back from my polling place and, at 5 pm, they had just over 30 per cent turnout. They expect at least 40 per cent by 8 tonight. This is more than usual for primaries. My ward is a little more Republican than Dem, and above average in income and education (Sheboygan's northeast side).

by reslerWI 2008-02-19 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

I just noticed that Ben Smith is discussing some exit polls and suggesting a possible big night for Obama (the comments are actually throwing out some real exit poll numbers).

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 208/Wisconsin_exits.html

As always, I'm skeptical until I see actual results, but I thought I'd pass it along.

by DPW 2008-02-19 01:09PM | 0 recs


Wisconsin Democratic primary voters were not big fans of globalization. Seven in 10 said U.S. trade with other countries takes more jobs from Wisconsin and fewer than one in five said it creates more jobs for the state. One in 10 said international trade has no effect on the state either way.


Broader economic concerns were apparent. As in earlier primaries, at least half of Wisconsin Democrats said the nation's economy is not good and nearly all the rest said it is poor.

Wisconsin Republican primary voters felt a bit better about the economy, but still, a majority said it was not good or poor.


Wisconsin has truly open primaries -- voters choose in the voting booth which party's primary to vote in. The exit poll indicated that, as in earlier open primaries this season, far more voters were participating in the Democratic than the Republican contest. For about one in seven Democratic voters, Tuesday was the first time they were voting in a primary.


As usual, men outnumbered women in Republican primaries while the reverse was true on the Democratic side. About nine in 10 voters in both primaries were white. The Republican electorate was a bit older than the Democratic. Roughly four in 10 in each party were college graduates.


Preliminary results from exit polling by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for The Associated Press and television networks. Partial samples in 35 precincts across Wisconsin.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-19 01:14PM | 0 recs

Don't know what to make of that...you could say the fact that 40% were college graduates, and that 1/7 were new voters favors Obama.

by mecarr 2008-02-19 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii
From Marc Ambinder...
Info from our trusty pals at CBS News: this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a "college degree." They're "less affluent" than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.
-- Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care... adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.
-- Change trumps experience, 52 to 24.
-- Very few first time voters -- only 17%.
-- 27% of the electorate were independent
-- Clinton was seen as the most unfair attacker;
-- Obama (55%) was seen as the candidate most like to improve relations with the res tof the world.
-- Clinton and Obama are seen as equally qualified to be commander in chief (50% and 48%), while Obama draws 60% or more on the questions of who best can unite the country and beat the Republicans.
by mecarr 2008-02-19 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Fox exit polls have women split at Obama 51, Clinton 49.  That would seem to indicate a good outcome for Obama.

by Nissl 2008-02-19 01:36PM | 0 recs
Fox's Early Exit Polling for Wisconsin
Women: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Families with income under 50,000: Obama 51%, Clinton 49%
Independents: Obama 63%, Clinton 34%
Seniors: Clinton 60%, Obama 39%
Top quality -- experience: Clinton 95%, Obama 5%
Union households: Clinton 50%, Obama 49%

From The Page
by mimi42 2008-02-19 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Fox's Early Exit Polling for Wisconsin

Interesting that Obama beat Clinton among women and among those with income below $50,000. It seems that he's cutting into her base.

by mecarr 2008-02-19 01:36PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii
Several polling sites in the city of Milwaukee have asked for more ballots as voting appears heavier than expected in some spots, Sue Edman, executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission, said this afternoon..
When will these people start to anticipate higher than expected voting? The excuse that they were surprised can't be used anymore after every primary has shattered turnout records.
by mecarr 2008-02-19 01:38PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

If they anticipated it, it wouldn't be "higher than expected."

by rfahey22 2008-02-19 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: High Turnout Expected in Wisconsin, Hawaii

Obama winning among women, 51/49.

Essentially, Clinton only wins with white women over 50, i.e., her own demographic. Given her campaign's allusions to Jesse Jackson, seems like karma.

by EMTP democrat 2008-02-19 01:39PM | 0 recs
Clinton ahead in early exits?

This is from a live blogging Republican site:

Democrat Primary Results (Wisconsin):

5:53 Update- Early Exit Poll: Clinton 49 Obama 45 Hold onto your Hats! It's gonna be a long night!
This poll doesn't account for evening voters (professionals) who are now getting off work and heading to the polls.

Bad Economy is on Dem. Wisconsin Voters mind.

15% of Dem voters had never voted before. Half think the economy is very bad. More women than men voted Dem.

Dem. voters, or at least voters who voted for a

Dem. candidate outnumber Republican voters by LARGE margin. Could this signify Republican cross-over? Probably not as it's been seen in other states without open primaries.
(February 19th, 2008.)

So, who knows?  Oh yeah, the link:


by DaTruth 2008-02-19 01:50PM | 0 recs
Obama blowout?

From Politico...
Mike Allen e-mails:

Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Sen. Obama looks like he’s headed for a huge win in today’s Wisconsin primary. The polls could turn out to be off, as they have in the past. But the officials’ revelation reflects the chatter in the campaigns in advance of the 9 p.m. Eastern poll closing.

The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters — women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes — while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.

by mecarr 2008-02-19 01:51PM | 0 recs


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