CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering Superdelegates

Marc Ambinder this morning brings us word of CBS News' new delegate count, which includes superdelegates but not Michigan and Florida:

Barack Obama 1,134 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 1,131 delegates

2,025 delegates are required to clinch the nomination

Barack Obama was presumed to be able to take an overall delegate lead after Tuesday night after the votes had been counted in Virginia, Maryland and here in the District of Columbia, each of which he appears to lead in (see: Pollster.com). But now, at least according to CBS News' tabulations, Obama has already overcome Hillary Clinton's 74-delegate lead among superdelegates (among CBS News) to take an overall lead -- albeit a very narrow one -- in the race for the Democratic nomination. This means that if the polling is correct and Obama is on the inside track in tomorrow's contests (perhaps a big if, in light of problems with earlier polling this cycle, but perhaps not), he should be able to pick up a decent share of the 168 pledged delegates at stake, and thus pad his lead instead of merely going over the top of Clinton for the first time.

Just to add... It's worth noting that not every news organization has the same tally as CBS News. Our tally, down on the bottom right, still seems to have Clinton up, and on MSNBC this morning Chuck Todd alluded to a Clinton lead that may be below 20 delegates when superdelegates are factored in (paraphrasing).

Update [2008-2-11 8:42:51 by Jerome Armstrong]: MyDD uses the counts done by both the 2008 Democratic Convention Watch for its superdelegate count, and TheGreenPapers for the delegate count, both of which have more credibility [documentation + transparency] than CBS does. Currently they show Clinton leading by 43 or 169 delegates, depending on whether you count Florida and Michigan (I do).

Tags: Delegate Count, Democratic primaries (all tags)

Comments

37 Comments

Re: MSNBC: Matthews and Buchanan...

Just now, on Scarborough's show, Chris Matthews, Mika and Pat Buchanan just chatting about the course of this campaign, but then both Matthews and Buchanan dropped a bombshell in my view:

Both agreed that if the nominee is Clinton, she will win a "narrow" victory over McCain. But if the nominee is Obama, there is no guarantee Obama can beat McCain, because Obama's too much of an unknown, and would be a very volatile candidate in the general election.

Just sayin'

SusanUnPC at No Quarter this morning just nails it once again. God, she's an awesome blogger. Don't have the link handy, but you know where they are. Go Read It.

by Tennessean 2008-02-11 03:30AM | 0 recs
Re: MSNBC: Matthews and Buchanan...

They're stating the obvious. Obama will be defined by the GOP negatively because he's failed to take the lead and do it himself.

I think they are spot on here. All of his skeletons haven't come out of the closet.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-11 03:42AM | 0 recs
What skeletons do you think those are?

If Clintons haven't gotten them out by now than you must know something I don't know.

by puma 2008-02-11 03:53AM | 0 recs
Re: What skeletons do you think those are?

Nope. The Clintons have really been nice to him. He just thinks they've been mean because he's wimpy. It's about the Rezko deal.

by Ga6thDem 2008-02-11 10:25AM | 0 recs
I agree that Obama

is an unknown candidate in the general.  I do not think that it will be a close election.  It will either be a huge win for Obama or a big loss.

If Obama wins than it will really be a transformative presidency.

With that said, I still think that HRC will take the nomination.  She will win Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvana which may give her the nomination.

The concern that HRC has though if she does win the nomination is that the African-American vote may be very depressed from voting in the Fall if it looks like the delegate count is close and she looks like she "stole" the election.  If she does get the nomination she must get it outright with the most popular votes and the most delegates before superdelegates are added.  Than it would look like she really won and then people will not be pissed off.

by puma 2008-02-11 03:50AM | 0 recs
Re: I agree that Obama

I think alot of your average people out there are wondering what's going to happen with Florida and Michigan. With delegates, superdelegates, and penalties for early voting, it gets confusing. Wouldn't Hillary be comfortably ahead if those two states were counted? Why wasn't Obama on the ballot in Michigan, and what kind of fair election would leave out two states?

by jdean 2008-02-11 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: MSNBC: Matthews and Buchanan...
Tennessean, here is the link:
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/02/10/ singled-out-as-fair-game/#more-1497
by stumpy 2008-02-11 04:13AM | 0 recs
Re: MSNBC: Matthews and Buchanan...

I think John Kerry promised Democratic primary voters that he was more electable, too. That turned out fabulously. :-(

Look, electability arguments at this late stage are frankly just desperate spinning. All the polls agree that, at least right now, Obama runs a tad stronger against McCain than Clinton in head-to-head match-ups. Obama also happens to be running a better campaign, and Clinton's campaign manager just resigned. I think it's downright silly for either candidate, but especially Clinton, to be arguing that the sky will fall in November if she doesn't win the nomination. How ridiculous.

by BBCWatcher 2008-02-11 05:51AM | 0 recs
Confused

Now we like and trust Matthews and Buchanan?

by Trond Jacobsen 2008-02-11 05:59AM | 0 recs
Re: MSNBC: Matthews and Buchanan...

I would agree with this.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-02-11 06:41AM | 0 recs
Re: MSNBC: Matthews and Buchanan...
volatile?.....how about inept without a teleprompter!
    hell i have a Lab that could beat McCain with Oprahs billions, and Jesse's connection, if only i could teach him to spout "Hope" like a baptist minister.
    Hope?.....who the hell needs hope?....when my car breaks, i take it to pro.
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 07:41PM | 0 recs
in the words of Dan Rather...

that lead is thinner than turnip soup.

by mboehm 2008-02-11 03:32AM | 0 recs
Re: in the words of Dan Rather...
your moment is Jimmy Carter all over again...
    research your choice a bit better....god help us all.
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 07:44PM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

So Tuesday there are 168 delegates up. Plus what, 30 or so superdelegates? Say Obama gets 98, Hillary 70. Even if Obama gets only a minority of the supers he's still ahead.

by some other george 2008-02-11 03:34AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

As Bowers points out, its fairly inappropriate to count Mich, Florida AND SDs at this stage int he game.  SDs float and FLorida and Mich haven't been officially accepted.  Unless a deal is cut, none should be listed until the convention credentials committee accepts them.

by yitbos96bb 2008-02-11 03:46AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

Unpledged PLEOs (superdelegates) and MI and FL will not have any impact on the final result in Denver.

If Clinton leads by even one pledged delegate, the DNC will unite behind her because they are loyal to the Clinton patronage machine that put so many of them into office.  That will win the contest for her.

If Obama leads by even one pledged delegate, the superdelegates will reluctantly rally behind him to put him solidly over the top.  Probably they will do so in such numbers that they can safely invite MI and FL onto the floor in a show of unity.

Why will the supers rally to Obama if he leads?  The insiders can understand constituency dynamics.  If the DNC changes the rules the very first time a black man figures out how to win, it will resonate with the most loyal Democratic voting block.  Cynthia McKinney will be running on the Green ticket and Republican 527's will have untold millions to spread the true story of how Obama was cheated by the party insiders to every African American voter in OH, PA, MI, WI, FL, and VA.  Clinton cannot win any of those states with only 75% of the black vote, not one.  

All they have to do to elect president McCain is get through to one in five or even one in six black voters.  It will be easier because the devastating story will be true.  And McCain could nominate VP Condeleeza for insurance if he likes.

A Clinton nomination under those circumstances would be worthless to her and a disaster for the party.  

So the only thing that will count -- the only thing we should be counting -- is pledged delegates.  Unless they are an exact tie, the winner will be the nominee.

by Brian Watkins 2008-02-11 07:03AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

I wish you were right, but I don't think you are. HRC's list of political favors runs deep, she's got Bill's Rolodex and George Soros' financial support, and she's donated a ton of money to many superdelegates' own campaigns -- and they know they won't have access to her donor list, etc. if they don't put her over the top in August.

Plus, if Obama holds a narrow lead in promised delegates at the convention, the party will vote to admit Florida and Michigan to make it look as if Hillary won the popular vote fair and square. Then the supers will side with HRC, and pretend they were acting democratically.

What we need, SOON, is a movement to embarrass the supers into committing to (a) follow the popular vote instead of their prior endorsements, and (b) not to admit Florida and Michigan if doing so will tip the scales. Barring that, we're going to see a kind of repeat of the presidential race in 2000: a small group of elites overriding the popular will to appoint someone "winner" of a supposedly fair election. Superdelegates

by thersites 2008-02-11 09:09AM | 0 recs
If they haven't endorsed her already...

why would they endorse her now?  This danger is overblown.

by jlk7e 2008-02-11 09:47AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering
i have this hardly used bridge in Brooklyn that i'm selling really cheap....all it needs is a little elbow-grease and HOPE!!!
   think man think!....i stopped with the Santa schtick a LONG time ago, and the future of our country is a stake.
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 07:47PM | 0 recs
Of course you are counting MI and FL

Some people try to distort everything to favor their favorite candidate.  i.e., look at the latest breaking blue.

"Obama refuses to debate in Wisconson"

Why should he give free airtime to a campaign that is broke??  He has more important things to do than help Hillary Clinton get on the air, like racking up 30 point victories.

by jalby 2008-02-11 04:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Of course you are counting MI and FL

OMG!!!!  I just went over to the breaking blue post and noticed that two officials from Wisconsin are complaining that Barack isn't giving free airtime to Hillary!!!!!  And by some shocking coincidence, these two people are early supporters of Hillary Clinton!!!!!  And by another shocking coincidence, this is not mentioned AT ALL by the person who posted this!!!!  OMFG!!!!

by jalby 2008-02-11 04:18AM | 0 recs
I want to know ...

why Jerome has become everything ...  he supposedly loathed before? ... Why should Obama give Hillary free air time? .. Why should Obama throw Hillary's campaign a life raft?  We all know that she wouldn't throw anyone else one

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-02-11 05:08AM | 0 recs
Re: I want to know ...
btw....did ya ever do any research to this connection at all?...at all?
   Hillary campaigned for Obama and helped raise money for him when he ran for his senate seat....did ya know that Mr. Positive?...
   you're the kinda guy that made life really bad in this country in the late 80's, and i was there.
   Jimmy Carter spouted the same b/s, then locked himself away in the Oval Office when the big bad world crushed in.
   your candidate spouts of Reagan's effect on this country's image of hope from dispair....but if you research the facts, he was speaking of the same effect your candidate is all about. all talk, no substance.
   Ronald Reagan would not only laugh at your candidate.....he'd take him by the hand and introduce him to reality.
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Of course you are counting MI and FL
Oh Your "F"ing God?
  now what would your candidate say to such language?...(pssssst, he'd have to consult a speechwriter, spin Dr,etc,etc,etc...)
  Obama is like Santa.....when you grow up, you realise life overtakes fantasy....
   btw, did ya know the guy smokes?....lol, he's out there spouting health care for all of America, and this moron smokes.
    read between the lines babette......your guy is a car salesman.......a really good, really well funded one, but never the less a BS artist.
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 09:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Of course you are counting MI and FL
you mean like being afraid of her without his telepromters?....
   He's Jack Kennedy in that way for sure!....Joe Kennedy is reincarnated as Oprah and the Rainbow Coalition all over again!
   your guy is all well rehearsed "work the crowd!"....but in the end, he's going to be looking for Toto.....(he's not in Kansas anymore...)
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 07:52PM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

real clear politics has Obama with a delegate lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/democratic_delegate_count .html

They claim their source as (in their words): Delegate Counts Come From AP, Wash Post, CBS News & RCP

by poserM 2008-02-11 04:38AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

The only hope now is that Clinton's base, women, Roman Catholics, Latinos, lunch-bucket Democrats, rally to give her a strong showing in Texas, Ohio, and Penn.  Then she can make the argument based on her popular vote majority to the superdelegates.

by Bob H 2008-02-11 04:48AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

Somehow I missed the story where the DNC announced they were going to seat the Mich and Fl delegates...

Until that point, including them in any tally seems presumptuous and biased.  Precisely the reason why I have come here to read less and less.

Nice win for Hillary in Maine last night!

by dasmeer 2008-02-11 04:54AM | 0 recs
Superdelegates: A Wee Reality Check

Folks...

The Superdelegate story is a tasty media-cooked stew that lacks real sustenance!  The superdelegates ALWAYS blow with the wind and follow the national leader.  Watch for two things to begin if the HRC machine caqn't win at least ONE of the Chesepeake primaries:

1) Superdelegates who have declared/stated a "preference", will start to publically waver, or peel away from HRC.

2) The drumbeat for her to drop out will begin, for the sake of unifying the party NOW before the Superdelegate "issue" (weak as it is) gets more play, or democratic grass roots get more vitriolic.

BOTH these phenomena will increase should she also not win WI or HI.  Mark my words.  The pressure for her to drop out will begin Wednesday at midnight should she lose all three.

How will her campaign react to this?  

by a gunslinger 2008-02-11 05:28AM | 0 recs
the winner of pledged delegates...

will get the nomination, guaranteed. the democrat party would not be so stupid to have it any other way.

also fl and mi will not count unless they vote again. this too is a guarantee as the democrat party is not stupid.

by supsupsup 2008-02-11 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: super

I don't care who gets the most superdelegates, I think the idea that they may decide the nomination is ridiculous. If Clinton is ahead in pledged delegates, but Obama comes from behind and wins with the super delegates, then I will just fold up and stay home. Same goes if Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and Clinton comes from behind to win with super delegates.

Superdelegates should vote for who has the most pledged delegates. The only reason I could see for them casting their vote otherwise is if there was proof of voting fraud in some primaries and they are trying to correct the vote or something.

by mecarr 2008-02-11 08:26AM | 0 recs
Re: super
or if "intelligence rules the helm?"
   the goal is the Oval Office, and if that goes against Latinos and Blacks, i'll be there!
   Racist?....Bigoted?....call me both, but i don't care for the odds of Mr Obama surviving the likes of Rove and his nefarious cronies.
   Hillary's heels have already been exposed by the baptist preacher's speech writers...if you want a real contendor, vote for a veteran.
   baggage?.......we don't need no stinkin' baggage!.....we need experience!
   
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 08:55PM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

Expect Edwards to endorse Obama - Maybe tonight. He's meeting with Edwards today. After tomorrow - Obama's pledged delegate lead will not be something Hillary can overcome -except with a blow-out in Ohio and Texas - not likely. The wind is shifting. Democrats want to wrap this up quickly. Except for older white women, Hillary's support is not passionate enough (a la evangelical conservatives for Huckalbee) to keep voting for her to make some sort of point. Democrats like her, but they're not willing to see a bloodbath over her. She's been beaten. The Party after tomorrow will start to move on.

by CB Todd 2008-02-11 08:31AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering

Obama & Edwards meeting that was scheduled for today has been cancelled. Who knows why. I bet it is something of a scheduling conflict.

by mecarr 2008-02-11 08:38AM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering
you may be right, but i'm thinking strong strategy moves in the next hours....
   and no one can dismiss party rules, even if it's become a war of money.
    where in the hell are we anymore?....Oprah's billions and Jesse Jackson's influence has turned the United States into Neverland?
   Mr.Obama hasn't the grit to live 4 years in the oval office....like chum in a shark tank.
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 08:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Has Delegate Lead

Why would anyone count Florida and Michigan????  I can see the case for reinstating Florida's delegation, or part of it, because at least all of the candidates were on the ballot there.  There's no possible case for Michigan's vote to count, since Obama and Edwards weren't on the ballot there.

The media shouldn't be reporting the super delegate "count" at all.  It has been skewing the news, and making casual voters believe that Senator Clinton was still in the "lead", despite having won fewer delegates in states that have actually voted.  It's deceptive, especially given that super delegates are not pledged and could easily change their support between now and the convention.

by Lex 2008-02-11 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: CBS: Obama Has Delegate Lead, Even Considering
one more time....
    put someone in there that know's what they're doing for christ's sake?
   right, predictable......we'll all observe the late '80's again......we'll wish anyone else was in office as the pendulum swings yet again.
by Boo Radley 2008-02-11 08:34PM | 0 recs

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