HI-Sen: Inouye Not Particularly Vulnerable

On November 4, Hawaii gave it's native son Barack Obama a greater share of the vote -- 72 percent -- than any other state in the nation. Perhaps it should come as no surprise, then, that Dan Inouye, who has represented Hawaii in the House or the Senate for the entirety of its time as a state, is looking fairly strong in his 2010 reelection bid, even against popular Republican Governor Linda Lingle.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Dan Inouye (D): 53 percent
Linda Lingle (R): 42 percent

Hawaiians give Lingle fairly good marks, with 53 percent of voters rating her favorably and 42 percent rating her unfavorably. But that isn't enough to enable her to knock off Inouye, whose lowest reelection showing was 57.3 percent in 1992, and who other than that has never received less than 69 percent of the vote in a Senate election. Inouye's strength, then, isn't too much of a surprise -- though the fact that Lingle isn't polling within 10 points of Inouye is at least slightly unexpected.

Tags: Daniel Inouye, Hawaii, HI-Sen, Linda Lingle (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

this is like IA-Sen

If the incumbent doesn't retire, or develop an unexpected health problem, this seat is out of reach for the other party.

by desmoinesdem 2008-12-18 02:29PM | 0 recs
Seperation of Nation/State

I find it amazing how certain states across our nation separate state politics from National politics.  Especially in a state like Kansas where Sebilus is sitting pretty, yet would be in an uphill dog fight if she wanted the Senate seat.  

by nzubechukwu 2008-12-18 04:37PM | 0 recs
it's not that surprising

Nearly one-fifth of U.S. House districts voted one way for president but sent someone from the other party to Congress:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDia ry.do?diaryId=4108

by desmoinesdem 2008-12-18 05:31PM | 0 recs
Re: HI-Sen: Inouye Not Particularly Vulnerable

Any friend of Ted Stevens is no friend of mine. He's what 84, 85? These Senators for life just have to be tackled.

by Charles Lemos 2008-12-18 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: HI-Sen: Inouye Not Particularly Vulnerable

As a Hawaii resident and a concerned Democrat I'll tell you I'm worried about this seat.  It is not only Inouye but also Akaka that are about to put big hurt on the Democratic party in Hawaii and maybe nationally by costing two seats.  Neither of these octogenarians have done anything to develop or mentor up and coming Democrats in Hawaii to be able to take over when they inevitably either retire or die.  They have both developed personal networks, rather than political networks, and as Charles Lemus not only has Inouye been far too accommodating to Republicans but Akaka has allowed himself to be held hostage by the Akaka bill, his only real piece of legislation that he appears to care about.

Not only are these two seats vulnerable but Lingle is a shoe-in when the first one of them goes.  The Democratic party in Hawaii is too corrupt and too entrenched to be healthy and has forgotten how to truly govern.  I fear Hawaii will be going Republican soon at the national level.

by solar 2008-12-18 06:08PM | 0 recs
Re: HI-Sen: Inouye Not Particularly Vulnerable

A couple of items.
Abercrombie could move up he has the credibility ( but I still hold the Con. Ctr vote against him)

Mazie could also step up.

Mufi is looking to move up from Honolulu Hale

Lingle could have problems with the National R's espiacially the nutcase christians ( sorry redundant)

Ed Case will probably try to take the Gov seat but he may be a spent force.

I do think that after supporting Stevens that Danny I might face some problems but he may decide to retire. Remember he and his theiving friend stevens came into the senatetogether and he has stated in the past that he would probably leave at the same time so with the trash from Alaska gone he might retire.

by Rational 2008-12-18 10:09PM | 0 recs
Don't Forget His Ties to Duke Cunningham

While it's unclear whether it's just proximity or something more, Inouye has been mentioned by Mitchell Wade to the authorities as a part of his agreement with prosecutors.

Sprinkle on some scandal fairy dust, and this race could be very competitive....Just ask Ted Stevens.

by msaroff 2008-12-19 07:19AM | 0 recs
Re: HI-Sen: Inouye Not Particularly Vulnerable

I don't think Abercrombie has the statewide appeal for the Senate seat he'd need and Lingle would likely beat him easily.  Mazie has already lost to Lingle once and likely wouldn't fare any better the second time around.  I don't know enough about Mufi as he's something of a non-entity to us on Maui.

I agree, Case is out of the picture.  He'd to better to run as a Republican anyway since he's more in line with Lingle than with any Democrat.

by solar 2008-12-19 03:04PM | 0 recs

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