Next Day down-ballot

At home, Warner won a huge blowout in Virginia, 64-34, and his coattails helped Obama win the state for a Democratic candidate the first time in 44 years. I wonder if Tim Kaine is going to be moving into the administration? That would bump up the current Lt. Gov Bolling, who is a bit of a conservative (to say the least) to the governorship. The interesting thing is that Attorney General Bob McDonnell is the likely Republican candidate for governor in 2009, as Bolling has said he's running for re-election. Hmm.

Really?  We are at 56 Senate seats. That's it?  Five is fine going into '08. I was thinking, like most, that 58 was the floor-- we really needed at least 58 Senate seats to make sure we have a working majority. Are there 4 Republicans in the Senate that will not work to block every progressive policy on the list?  It looks like again, all of the close races, AK, MN, OR (still a lot of votes to count), and GA-R reaching 50, are going one way-- unfortunately the Republican way. Alaska? Well, the headwind, 62-36, McCain over Obama, was apparently too much for Democrats to defeat two corrupt Republicans. Nevertheless, Stevens is toast in the Senate. Replaced by Senator Palin in 2010?

I'll hopefully be able to look at the national House seats more later, some really great wins, and some tough losses. Republicans are down to just three CD's in the state of NY! We are over 250, which is plenty for a progressive agenda, maybe another 5 or so to be gained. Like the Senate, we are going to fall short of the high expectations, gaining somewhere around 20 seats. I love that Democrats won in Idaho, the 1st CD, by Minnick. When we were writing CTG and traveling around the country, Idahoans that we talked with were deep in the wilderness but had done all they could to learn about the Montana miracle. They gained leg seats in '06, and finally have won a federal race.

At the state leg level, Democrats won new majorities in the Delaware House, Ohio House, Wisconsin Assembly, New York Senate, and the Nevada Senate.

OK, I'll admit, I'm greedy for the progressive movement, and wanted more than just a pickup of 5 in the Senate and about 20 in the House.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)



Re: Next Day down-ballot

I didn't really follow the results last night and admit that I am shocked this morning that we didn't do better in the Senate.  I would almost say we underperformed given political tailwind that we enjoyed.  

I never thought we would get 60 in the Senate.  But I would have said 56 was way on the low side.  

It doesn't look like we overperformed in the House either.

On a happy note Liddy Dole doesn't have to bother to visit us in NC anymore.  

by RichardFlatts 2008-11-05 03:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

55 seats in the senate, Jerome... Lieberman is going to get kicked out of the caucus, although maybe he'll beg and plead to stay in....

This is a real disappointment... losing every single one of the close races, although there is still a chance with possibly provisionals in MN maybe carrying over Franken, and people saying that the AP totals for Merkeley are incorrect and he has a good chance of winning...  and some reports that say that early voting in AK hasn't been counted...

I hope that we can at least pull out one of those races, especially MN and OR....

by LordMike 2008-11-05 03:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

yea, maybe, on Lieberman, I hear different things.

I'm hoping that we win one of those that looks lost, that will mean an uptick. I don't recall how the late votes go in the mail-in for OR, usually though, its Portland drop-offs, so we could still win that one.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 03:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Are you hearing that LIeberman may be kept on in the spirit of bipartisanship? I figure it would be a good symbol that there would be no political punishments.

by vcalzone 2008-11-05 04:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

I think they will keep him in the caucus (unless he leaves) but I think he loses the committee chair.  I'm going to be PISSED if he has any committee chairs.

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-05 04:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

This is what I've heard. He votes fairly well for big D issues other than Iraq so if he even defects to the dark side he will more than likely be a vote we can count on for most legislation. But I agree, strip this fucker bare as payment for being a pudknocker.

by JerryColorado23 2008-11-05 05:10AM | 0 recs
Franken's calling for a recount

Coleman's margin of victory was .04, enough to trigger the recount.  Let's hope Franken prevails. ndex.cfm?page=article_bureau&id=4721 2&legislative_tag=1

What the heck is wrong with Minnesotans?  It used to be a pretty good state with well educated, progressive people.  I had very high hopes for Al and donated a couple of times to his race.  

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-05 04:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Franken's calling for a recount

They have some bizarre, irrational hatred of Franken.... I don't understand it at all!

by LordMike 2008-11-05 04:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Franken's calling for a recount

Franken and Coleman both did.

634 fracking votes out of more than 2 million.  Aaarrrgh!

by lojasmo 2008-11-05 05:12AM | 0 recs
Franken is in the tradition of Wellstone

When you get past his wise-cracking, he's so much like Wellstone with that intellect, passion and great midwestern sense of decency, common sense and concern for others.

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-05 05:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Franken's calling for a recount

Well CA is a blue state that has some serious right wing regions. Any state that has Bachmann for a rep can't be THAT progressive all over.

by Pravin 2008-11-05 04:50AM | 0 recs
MN always a tough state

The details change, but overall the song remains the same.  We've had close elections going all the way back.

Some stars like HHH and Mondale won their offices easily, but mostly it's been back and forth.

We've also always had strong rightys and strong leftys, and some oddballs thrown in.

Maybe it's just a cry for attention... But everybody's watching now, right?

by DFLer 2008-11-05 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

After what Lieberman said about the country being in danger if Democrats get 60 seats, are you kidding me? Will the ridiculous Harry Reid tolerate even this latest bit of crap from lieberman? How much will Harry Reid be willing to take before he gets some freaking self respect and orders Lieberman to take a hike?

If lieberman remains in the caucus and gets a chairmanship of any kind, I am done with the Democrats. I voted for Jim Martin against Allen Buckley(libertarian) so I could support the party. I will never vote out of party loyalty again if Lieberman is allowed to stay even after his latest inexcusable comments.

Oh, and the reason why Jim Martin even made it close was because of Obama. If Franken forces a recount, he has Obama to thank. Though I wonder about the polls that gave him a lead just recently.

by Pravin 2008-11-05 04:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Recount is automatic in Minnesota.

by lojasmo 2008-11-05 05:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

I lived in Oregon for 2 years after vote by mail was implemented and the ballot has to be postmarked election or earlier so they will probably be getting ballots for the next few days.  We may not know for sure until Friday.

by jmnyc 2008-11-05 05:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

No, actually, ballots have to be RECEIVED by 8pm on election night--postmarks don't matter.

by Finngall 2008-11-05 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Oops.  Thanks for the correction.

by jmnyc 2008-11-05 07:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Well, if you actually read what people who know math
and not just come up with expectations "because":
prediction: 57 dem, 41 rep.

Expectations have to be realistic.....

by lolo08 2008-11-05 06:45AM | 0 recs
Alaska should be returned to territorial status

Alaskans have shown themselves incapable of the responsibilities of statehood. By electing a convicted felon back to the Senate, the US Senate should not only expel Ted Stevens but should reject every alternative put forth by Governor Palin.

Alaska is every bit the embarrassment that DC was when it re-elected Marion Barry.

by elrod 2008-11-05 03:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Alaska should be returned to territori

This is even worse than Dollar Bill Jefferson because Ted Stevens was actually found guilty.

But yeah, we got our own that get inexpicably elected. I wonder what the freepers are thinking about Ted Stevens.

by Pravin 2008-11-05 04:52AM | 0 recs
one wrong assumption

I made was that the universal commentary about McCain being toast would depress the Republican vote.

Instead Republicans seem to have turned out in large numbers to prevent one-party rule in Washington, and perhaps also a lot of independents voted for gridlock (Obama plus GOP down-ticket).

I had very high hopes for Merkley and am not giving up on that yet. I always wondered whether Franken was the right guy to take out Coleman, and I'm going to be crushed if Coleman survives this wave. He never should have been in the Senate in the first place.

by desmoinesdem 2008-11-05 03:43AM | 0 recs
Re: one wrong assumption

I know for a fact that some republicans saw the early voting for Obama (people, do you really have to be so blatant about the early voting standing in line for hours?) and it made them want to counter that. I heard comments in GA.

The democrats doing the early voting should have been quiet and discrete about it hitting the republicans by surprise. Then again, the whole group thing probably helped create enthusiasm which spurred more Democratic turnout. So there is no easy strategy, I guess.

Palin helped McCain with solidifying some red districts, but she killed his chances in the grey ones.

by Pravin 2008-11-05 04:55AM | 0 recs
Re: one wrong assumption

"(people, do you really have to be so blatant about the early voting standing in line for hours?) "

How do you get out to the polls in those numbers without standing in line?   Early voting is what got us (most likely) NC.  GA was probably a bridge too far in 2008.

by thezzyzx 2008-11-05 04:57AM | 0 recs
Re: one wrong assumption

GA is a tough nut to crack. I suspect this was our best shot at making gains with Obama and Barr running but still fell short. Having deep roots and family in GA I can tell you it will be a long haul but doable.

Thought we would do better there this year, though.

by JerryColorado23 2008-11-05 05:16AM | 0 recs
What I began to see

was something I saw that happened to Wilder: large African American turnout sometimes brings out conservatives in response.  See the diary I wrote on DKOS for an example of what helped keep up GOP turnout here.

Some of that absolutely happened as this year. It definately  happened in Florida - though I think you have to say Palin helped with the GOP turnout.  

By the war: I think the talk of Warner's coat tails is kind of funny. I am sure he helped, but the people lining up for hours in Virginia weren't there for anyone him.  

by fladem 2008-11-05 06:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

I still hope that Al Franken gets a seat in the Senate. I am ecstatic about the results, in any event. Obama is not a radical leftist Democrat who needs a veto-proof majority to dictate from, such a majority would actually undermine his stated goal of developing and proving a new Post-Partisan paradigm of rational governance.

I suspect that as he does so, he shall piss off people on both fringes, and he will do so to my eternal delight.

by QTG 2008-11-05 03:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

"A new Post-Partisan paradigm of rational governance " ... okay the election is over.   You do realize that was all just talk right?

I mean now its time to get back to business in D.C.   The real blood and guts work of putting politics into practice in order to run a government.  

If anything the partisenship is going to be ratcheted up a big notch.  Especially in the House.

by RichardFlatts 2008-11-05 03:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Yea, we beat all the moderates, all that are left are wingnuts.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 03:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

True, but lets also be honest.

Are we going to sit down with Republicans and have a nice give and take, and make sure we give in here and there in the spirit of bipartisenship?   Or are we going to ram bills down their throats?

I would hope we are ramming the bills down their throats ... which I fully expect we will be.

by RichardFlatts 2008-11-05 04:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

I agree.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 04:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

 I'll stand by my prediction that Obama will anger many on the far left. I'll let it stand there and wait for the future to prove who's correct. Time will tell.

by QTG 2008-11-05 04:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Well obviously Obama will not be governing from the far left.  The thing is that people tend to define "far left" as "anyone to the left of me."

by Steve M 2008-11-05 05:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

I don't have a good definition - even for what I mean by the term. It sort of means more about temperament to me than policy. Think 'purist', 'uncompromising', 'my decider is better than your decider', 'What do you think? - Oh, I forgot... I don't give a rat's ass what you think'.

That is just playing ping pong, and results in a spiraling downward politically polarizing cycle of FAIL.

Me no think Obama wants that. I could be wrong, though... No, I take that back.

by QTG 2008-11-05 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

The "far left" already hates Obama.

by lojasmo 2008-11-05 05:16AM | 0 recs
We need a filibuster-proof majority

for health care reform and probably some other issues.

Lobbyists still have a lot of control in DC and corporate interests (private insurance companies, pharma, etc.) have spent a lot of money on Dem races as well as Republicans. Most members of Congress are going to be concerned about keeping donations rolling in and it will affect a number of issues.

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-05 04:09AM | 0 recs
Way to go Ohio

Glad we won a House majority!  I,too, really hoped Dems could do better in the Senate and the down-ticket races.  It will make it difficult to get really good legislation passed. Don't expect to see too many GOP'ers willing to work on a bipartisan basis, at least not on good bills.

I'm also holding out hope that Clinton takes over for Reid.  He will continue to perform disastrously in that job. With Clinton, there might be hope for getting a good agenda through Congress.

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-05 03:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Way to go Ohio

Reid's proclamation that Stevens will not be seated probably lost that seat for us...  He's such an idiot!

by LordMike 2008-11-05 04:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Way to go Ohio

Well, he felt the need to go off after Inouye endorsed Stevens. Look, Inouye should not be the chair of appropriations after that.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 04:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Way to go Ohio

On CNN they said McConnell also said Stevens wouldn't be seated... was that true or did they confuse with Reid?

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-05 04:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Way to go Ohio

All Harry Reid did was quote the statements from Mitch McConnell and John Ensign to that effect.

by Steve M 2008-11-05 05:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Way to go Ohio

As much as I was opposed to Hillary being the Dem nominee, I would think she would be an improvement over Harry Reid. She would not tolerate that crap from Lieberman. The mofo is undermining the party from the outside.

by Pravin 2008-11-05 04:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

ID-01 isn't state wide, we've got two congressional districts. But yes, I'm thrilled; Sali was an idiot yet I didn't think we'd beat him in a year with a GOP presidential candidate on the top of the ballot. Go Idaho Dems!

by Nathan Empsall 2008-11-05 03:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Thanks, updated. Idaho Dems have to be estatic.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 04:01AM | 0 recs
The big question and perhaps an answer

Who are these new voters ... young, old, black or white ... that gave Obama such big margains in states like MN or OR?   I mean blow out wins for Obama and yet we didn't breeze to victory in the Senate races.   Granted, running against incumbants is tough, but if connecting McCain to Bush was so effective, why didn't it work down ticket as well?

I really wonder about these voters.  It appears that many will not be solid Democrats moving forward.   They didn't vote for progressive policies, they voted against Bush or for Obama, policies aside.  

After all how can you vote for Obama, and vote for Norm Coleman, if you are weighing policies?

One this is for sure, these races tell me the Republican Party is far from dead.   It will be interesting to watch how they choose to move forward over the next couple of years heading in the next midterms.  

I think they also tell us that Americans may well reject any drastic new policy directions.  

by RichardFlatts 2008-11-05 04:05AM | 0 recs
Re: The big question and perhaps an answer

Its gonna take some drill down. It could be a Palin effect. It could be that the first-time voters only voted the top of the ticket. Or... some other notion.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 04:18AM | 0 recs
Re: The big question and perhaps an answer

I have to guess that it was the 1 party rule notion, ESPECIALLY after the first 6 Bush years... That's my thought anyway on why McConnell and Chambliss and Stevens won and why Franken is close.  

As for Merkley, Smith campaigned as an Obama supporter (which is BS)... maybe some new voters were snowed in by that... the downside to Obama's post partisanship campaign is that the non-cynical are more apt to believe a GOP who says it.

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-05 04:37AM | 0 recs
Re: The big question and perhaps an answer

I volunteered for John Kerry's campaign in 1984.  I would sit in the office and listen to folks come in delighted to be voting for Kerry....equally happy to be voting for Reagan.  Never got it myself.

On the other hand, this may keep the party directed to the substantial stuff, the stuff worth arguing for, and keep it more united.  Sometimes having that kind of overwhelming majority (and yes I was hoping for it too and am particularly disappointed with Franken's loss, or seeming loss)) can result in a lot of intraparty squabbling.

And, I think I want to just take today and savour what has happened.  Aside from the sheer joy of Obama's win, I've heard the word socialist thrown at people in an election and not sticking.  For a left winger who grew up in Cold War era, that was just remarkable.  Maybe people are starting to be ready to look at the issues with some realism and with fewer labels.  If that is the case, even with a smaller majority there is hope.

by mady 2008-11-05 04:37AM | 0 recs
Re: The big question and perhaps an answer

I agree very much with your last comment. For the first time in a long time, we had a candidate who wasn't completely terrified whenever the words 'liberal' and 'socialist' and 'marxist' and so forth were thrown around. We had a candidate who wasn't afraid of pushing right back when allegations of being 'unpatriotic' were made.

And we had a candidate who (for the most part) actually talked to voters as if they were adults who could make decisions based on issues and not smears -- and, apparently, voters actually could!

Maybe, just maybe, the nearly-across-the-board losses in the states McCain roboslimed for weeks may be a beginning to the end of that kind of campaigning. One can hope, a bit, anyway.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-11-05 04:59AM | 0 recs
Re: The big question and perhaps an answer

It wasn't new voters that split, but the old ones and those squishy independents that have no spine whatsoever...  In MN, there's that irrational Franken hate that makes no sense...  He probably did better than expected, really...

by LordMike 2008-11-05 04:54AM | 0 recs
Re: The big question and perhaps an answer

I can tell you that it is Republican voters casting a vote for Obama but still voting red downticket.

We watched the results with a couple friends here in CO that admitted to doing that. They are registered (R) but could not live with themselves if they voted McCain so they voted Obama but still voted for Schaffer for Senate and Coffman for House.

I would imagine that will be a big datapoint nationally. How many Republicans voted Obama but maintained a partisan downticket ballot.

by JerryColorado23 2008-11-05 05:24AM | 0 recs
Yesterday was a good day

but with some heartbreaking losses.  The Senate outcome is disappointing and some of our good candidates did not make it.   I worked in Virginia during the election and I was happy to see what will hopefully end up as two new Democratic members of Congress in Virginia.  I hope that Kratovil ekes out a win in Maryland's first district.

by MDMan 2008-11-05 04:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

We all did...

On the bright side, in 2010 the GOP AGAIN has more seats to defend than we do... The last time that will be the case.   I think we have the chance to make it above 60 at that point.

Maybe if Obama wants to put a GOP in the cabinet, he can pick a GOP Senator from a state with a Dem governor?   That would be awesome.

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-05 04:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Oh I just want to say...

FUCK ALASKA.... You guys elected a fucking criminal?  Really?   That's messed up.  I am officially a member of the Alaskan Independence Party.  Let them leave the Union, bring in Puerto Rico as a replacement and they can have palin as their Queen.


by yitbos96bb 2008-11-05 04:22AM | 0 recs
I sympathize, but hopefully

you'd feel the same way about the Louisiana district that elected Jefferson - not convicted, but still clearly in the same boat as Stevens from an ethical standpoint.

by edparrot 2008-11-05 05:18AM | 0 recs
Warner coattails?

It was the Obama ground game that grinded out the narrow wins in VA, FL, NC, IN and maybe MO.  Warner could have been VP and in my opinion, he made a career mistake (though not a fatal  one) - if he wants to be President.

Palin won't appoint herself to the Senate.  She can't do anything in the Senate but she can continue to throw her weight around in the insular Alaska as top dog.  I hope the Anchorage Daily News continues to keep her (somewhat) honest.  I'm hoping that sometime in the next six months, McCain will say that Palin was the biggest mistake of his career - that will help to marginalize her as a future national force.  

Although Obama came up a hair short in Montana (those NRA ads killed him), Schweitzer won his relection bid: 65% to 33%.  Montana is one of the few States that is relatively economically healthy and a solid second term for Schweitzer is likely.  Obama can appoint him as Secretary of Agriculture in 2012 and then he will be setup for a national run in 2016.  

Progressives (whatever that means) are probably going to be disappointed by Obama.  Not only will the economic hole cause him to delay health care (except for maybe mandatory coverage of children), look for in 2009: a clear plan for withdrwal from Iraq, a Mideast Peace Plan push (with Colin Powell as envoy?), immigration reform, the first part of a comprehensive 21st Century energy plan, putting more of the government on the internet, a specific plan for national service by (mostly) Millennials and modest tax cuts for those making under $200,000.  All that would be a pretty good first year.

Obama's likely Presidential leadership style and agenda seems clear to me and was summarized by Republican Bradford Berenson of Obama's tenure at The Harvard Law Review:

"I think Barack took 10 times as much grief from those on the left on the Review as from those of us on the right. And the reason was, I think there was an expectation among those editors on the left that he would affirmatively use the modest powers of his position to advance the cause, whatever that was. They thought, you know, finally there's an African American president of the Harvard Law Review; it's our turn, and he should aggressively use this position, and his authority and his bully pulpit to advance the political or philosophical causes that we all believe in.

And Barack was reluctant to do that. It's not that he was out of sympathy with their views, but his first and foremost goal, it always seemed to me, was to put out a first-rate publication. And he was not going to let politics or ideology get in the way of doing that..."

by mboehm 2008-11-05 04:38AM | 0 recs
These Freudian slips by Jerome...

They indicate to me that he still does not understand the man who is our 44th President.

Perhaps Warner helped. But he didn't give him a 52/47 victory in a state that hasn't gone democratic since 1964.

You have the appeal of Obama, you have the ground game, you have the Obama campaign, all of which seemed to be eschewed for the governor's coattails.

by iohs2008 2008-11-05 04:56AM | 0 recs
Re: These Freudian slips by Jerome...

You gotta remember Jerome worked/volunteered(?) for Warner a year or so ago(?).
So he has that loyalty thing going in his analysis.

I do think Warner helped Obama and I think Obama helped Warner too. Though from the final margins, obama probably needed the help in VA more than Warner. Then again, one could say Obama didn't need Warner's help to win the Presidency since his national lead was so big anyway.

by Pravin 2008-11-05 05:00AM | 0 recs
Yeah, I know, but...

I just found it coincidental that the first sentence of the post could be taken as an attemptt o diminish Obama's victory.

I know Jerome campaigned for Warner, and I was around for the primary wars here were Jerome displayed his, um, "dislike" for Obama. It seems like it was just last week that he finally came around.

In the end, it's his site, and I come here for his analysis.

I just found it a very odd assessment of the situation.

by iohs2008 2008-11-05 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Warner coattails?

Add to your 2009 list infrastructure repair on a large scale; that'll be part of a combined economic stimulus/jobs/energy push (all of those tie together).

Health care is in the hands of the Senate. Obama will sign what he's given, and the House will most likely pass what the Senate comes up with. If it's just for children, that's what we get. If it's Obama's plan, more or less, we get that. If Hillary gets out in front of it, we get some variation on her plan. Obama's not going to burn a ton of political capital on any particular plan -- that's my prediction, anyway -- but on this issue he doesn't necessarily have to given the amount of Senate Dem support for doing something about health care.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-11-05 05:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Warner coattails?

Employee free choice act will be signed into law.

by eraske 2008-11-05 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Warner coattails?

You have a weird definition of coattails. Warner got 64, Obama got 52. Schweitzer's coattails in Montana nearly got Obama a win there.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Warner coattails?

And whose coattails got Obama Indiana? Florida?

In reading your diaries/statements I am still to hear you admit that Obama actually "did" someting. that he is the next president IN HIS OWN RIGHT.

by lolo08 2008-11-05 08:21AM | 0 recs
Makes me feel good Obama didn't sidetrack to GA

Stil, you have to wonder - if Obama +did+ sidetrack to GA on his way down to Florida, what effect it would have had. Clearly, we saw that Arizona was affected by New Mexico and other border states.

The 50 state strategy is a HUGE SUCCESS

by Trey Rentz 2008-11-05 04:41AM | 0 recs

Arcuri should have been re-elected rather easily, but it ended up a nail biter. He had 50.1% with 80% counted, for instance. Curently he's up just over 5,000 votes. In the NY Times list of NY House Districts where "Democrats expected to win easily", most of the winners Upstate has 70 to 80%. What was wrong here? The opponent wasn't that impressive.

I attribute the closeness of the race in part to a weak Democratic Party organization in the district. The Obama campaign and the DNC have done great infrastructure development in many places, but not here. The Arcuri campaign has not been up to the huge task of organizing. (They seemed to have trouble managing to get a recognizable picture of the candidate on the lawn signs!)

The Democratic Party now has a lot of people who are good at local organizing. (I remember all the complaining Here on MYDD about the lack of it during the 2006 election!) I really hope that the state Democratic Party can get the county-level organizations functional again. That can include ditching the dedicated fossils who have been county chairs for decades in which there were no expectations. A measure of success would be to get candidates for county offices, State Assembly and State Senate who have a lot to offer. In some cases the main qualification of the Democratic challenger seems to be that they are too naive to realize they are just cannon fodder.

So please, Howard Dean, take note that there is some low hanging fruit for good organizers here in the bluer part of the country.

by De Re Rustica 2008-11-05 04:48AM | 0 recs
That's one race the polls were considerably off.
It may be time to bury the incumbent rule--undedecideds are breaking more FOR incumbents now.
by esconded 2008-11-05 04:53AM | 0 recs
Thank you, Jerome

You, Todd, Jonathan, Chris Bowers, Markos and so many others have helped move the power of this democracy from the smoke-filled rooms of corrupt bargaining to the sunshine of the blogosphere.

You did it with books like "Crashing the Gates" and blogs like MyDD and Daily Kos. You did it in spite of criticism that was often unfair and sometimes nasty. You persevered in supporting ALL Democratic candidates in spite of your personal desire to see Hillary Clinton become president.

So thanks, Jerome. You and the rest of the MyDD crew are a big part of creating real, positive change in America.

by Spiffarino 2008-11-05 05:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

Let's 2 years, we've won 11 (or, maybe, just possibly, more) Senate seats, and 36 (or more) house seats, and a presidency.

Okay, I can be as greedy as anyone...but I'll take it.

by fsm 2008-11-05 05:30AM | 0 recs
Off Topic A Little but

is anyone else feeling this incredible sense of relief like a horrible storm has finally passed, the sun has come out and we can now move on with rebuilding our country?  As hard I worked for Al Gore in 2000, I never in a million years imagined how horrible GW Bush would be as President.  There is not one thing on his watch that has not turned to disaster.  What a mess President Obama is inheriting but he is up to the job.

Incidentally, I tear up everytime I see President Obama out of relief and the promise that his election brings.

by jmnyc 2008-11-05 05:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Next Day down-ballot

The size of Obama's victory, the states he won, the reception his victory is getting, and his historic speech were all incredible highs last night.  I went to bed with a sense of joy and relief.

I woke up to sadness.  I guess Obama's victory was completely expected.  I had no doubt he would win.  But what I learned this morning was unexpected.  I went to bed thinking we would win Senate seats in Minnesota, Oregon, and Alaska, and force a run-off in Georgia.  I can't believe that that a-hole Chambliss escaped a run-off by one-tenth of one percent, and that Franklin lost by a few hundred votes, and that even Stevens won.  I think with 58-59 seats, as I was expecting, it would have been much easier to peel off a couple of moderate Republicans and thus defeat any filibuster attempts, but with 56 seats it will be more difficult to get groundbreaking progressive legislation through.

As for Proposition 8, I am absolutely crushed.  Words can't describe how I feel about that.  I feel like the battle for equal rights in this country in the face of religious bigotry has been dealt a serious setback, and my heart is deeply saddened for my gay and lesbian friends.

I guess, on balance, with Obama's victory and with picking up seats in the Senate and House, it was a great night, but my feelings are bittersweet.

by markjay 2008-11-05 06:26AM | 0 recs
+21 in the House

Burner loses by 1%.  CA-04 may come down to late absentees.

by esconded 2008-11-05 06:28AM | 0 recs
Way down south(ern Nevada) down-ballot

Huge night downballot here in Clark County. Dina Titus wins NV-03 by about 6 points, and we win BOTH contested state senate seats to take a 12-9 majority in that body (for the first time since 1992), plus pick up an Assembly seat to give our caucus a 2/3 supermajority.

And the Democrats won both contested countyc ommission seats so that teh entire commission (the most powerful body in the state) is all blue -- and with a heavy influence of CtW (SIEU first and foremost)

And not much commented on, up at the top, Obama won this county by greater than 20%! Kerry won it by about 52-47.

by desmoulins 2008-11-05 08:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Way down south(ern Nevada) down-ballot

Wow, Nevada just needs a Dem Governor!

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-05 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Way down south(ern Nevada) down-ballot

desmoulins, it was a fantastic night. Thank you for the comment. I was going to post something similar to let everyone know what happened here in Nevada. Taking over the state senate was crucial with redistricting after 2010, and the likelihood of another congressional district. I wouldn't be surprised to see all of them redrawn. It might not be a bad idea to funnel some of NV-1 into NV-3 to make it a bit more friendly.

Beers going down was terrific, likewise Heck. I despise Heck. He's the only Republican who persisted in sending mailers to me.

I always keep my sample ballot and check off how my choices fared with a W or L. Last night was by far the highest percentage ever of Ws. :)

Now, get rid of Gibbons. He would have been toast last night but unfortunately Democrats don't show up equal to the cow counties in midterms. Hopefully we'll have a strong nominee and the Hispanics in Clark County continue to be a growing and reliable force in the electorate.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-11-05 11:00AM | 0 recs


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