Early State Exit Polls (Grain of Salt Required)

Take with a giant grain of salt (please read Pollster.com and Nate Silver on why you should be highly skeptical), but I have received the following numbers from multiple sources:

Florida: Obama 52 percent/McCain 44 percent
Georgia: Obama 47 percent/McCain 51 percent
Indiana: Obama 52 percent/McCain 48 percent
Iowa: Obama 58 percent/McCain 42 percent
Michigan: Obama 60 percent/McCain 39 percent
Minnesota: Obama 60 percent/McCain 39 percent
Missouri: Obama 52 percent/McCain 48 percent
Nevada: Obama 55 percent/McCain 45 percent
New Hampshire: Obama 57 percent/McCain 43 percent
New Mexico: Obama 56 percent/McCain 43 percent
North Carolina: Obama 52 percent/McCain 48 percent
Ohio: Obama 54 percent/McCain 45 percent
Pennsylvania: Obama 57 percent/McCain 42 percent
Virginia: Obama 55 percent/McCain 45 percent
West Virginia: Obama 44 percent/McCain 55 percent
Wisconsin: Obama 58 percent/McCain 42 percent

Note, of course, that these are early exit polls, and that even if they are a fair representation of those going to the polls, voting is still occurring across the country at this hour, and it's possible that the composition of late voters is different from the composition of earlier voters. Note, too, that early exit polls in recent years have tended to skew Democratic as Democrats have tended to be more willing to respond to the interviewers than Republicans.

For what it's worth, these numbers do not seem to comport with the numbers put forward by Gawker, though they do appear to be in line with the numbers Drudge has for Pennsylvania.

Update [2008-11-4 18:34:29 by Jonathan Singer]:Great point from jkfp2004 in the comments. Regardless of whether you are inclined to buy into these early exit numbers or not, continue to make calls, knock on doors, and generally do everything you can in the next few hours.

Tags: Exit Polling (all tags)

Comments

7 Comments

don't believe em for a second!

keep calling!!!!!!

president john kerry

by jkfp2004 2008-11-04 01:31PM | 0 recs
You'd think we learned a lesson in '04...

...about exit polling results!

So many people--including yours truly--had so much egg on their face after passing around exit polling results before the polls closed that showed Kerry kicking butt...only to find out that reality was a bitch later on.

by bobswern 2008-11-04 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Early State

If BO is really going to win in MN by 21% then i think it very likely that Al Franken will win the senate seat over Coleman.

david

by giusd 2008-11-04 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Early State Exit Polls

If the average overpoll in the exit poll holds for Obama (7% in the primaries), this is close.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-04 01:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Early State Exit Polls

One major difference is that the primaries didn't have early voting.  Many of these states do.

by Steve M 2008-11-04 01:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Early State Exit Polls

If they're off like 2004, McCain might pull out a 274-264 EV victory.

by esconded 2008-11-04 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Early State Exit Polls (Grain of Salt Required

Exit polls should not be trusted AT ALL...but for just one tiny second.........man those polls are breathtaking.

by zavlin 2008-11-04 01:44PM | 0 recs

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