blowout opening

All praise Obama. Seriously. I know I've given him flack in the primary but that's long gone in my mind, and his GE campaign has been pretty flawless. If he governs like he runs a campaign we will all be happy. That said, this election is bigger than Obama. The challenge for Obama was to make the country comfortable with a black man with limited national exposure. His campaign crossed that hurdle. His embracing the 50 state effort and people financing of his campaign were what made it possible to win against the Republican machine, and Obama's personal ability to come across as a 21st century American made it happen. The winning message was change vs more of the same.

McCain: More of the Same, A Third Bush Term, Change-- from all of that to something different. It's the rejection of Bush Republicans and all they have not done to make the world a better place. Beating Bush is why I got involved in politics in the first place. It took a few years longer than I had hoped, but it is now going to happen. All I can hope for is that the Democrats fulfill on their promise to be different, because if they don't... I don't even want to think about it.

OK, onward. Here are the predictions.

Presidential: 52.2 to 45.8-- a 6.4 percent margin. The last days national trend in every poll thus far (there are a few outstanding) is toward Obama. TIPP had undecideds breaking 2:1 in Obama's favor. Battleground started moving to Obama, Zogby too...  I'll predict we have a blowout: Unheard of in my lifetime for a Democrat. Well, actually, I was born in Feb '64, but I don't recall Johnson's blowout. 44 long years, and we finally have a Democratic blowout of the Republicans at the national level.

At the EV level, MyDD's counter has 338-200, which sounds good. I am a little bit nervous that IN, MO, and NC have all flipped back to McCain during the last week. McCain also has increased numbers in FL and OH, both of which I could see him winning. In VA, Obama has fallen below 50 percent on RCP, which could mean trouble. Both NV and CO have had recent polls showing it close. In short, all of the toss-up states seem to have tightened in McCain's favor the last week. This, even though the late-breaking undecideds, as picked up by the national tracking polls, are breaking to Obama. There's usually a lag from national to state, but McCain & the RNC have put all eggs into the toss-up states. My worst case scenario is that VA & PA are "too close to call" by the networks and we are up late waiting for the NV results to come in... the best is that Obama hits 400 by winning all the toss-ups, plus upsets in GA and AZ.

The MyDD EV map is now wiped clean for election day, and along with some really cool Google gadgets, I plan on calling each state and blogging the whole night.

Senate: A pickup of 9 seats. 60, yes! The trend has been for Senate toss-ups to all go one way or another, and not splitting. Since that's the case, I'll go with it. I've had the pleasure of working with 7 Senate races this cycle, and we are going to win all them:) Realistically, 58-59 would be terrific.

House: A pickup of 26 seats. Its probably the case that many of the seats we hope to win are in too red of gerrymandered CD's to actually win in a GE. Plus, we are going to lose seats-- this is a 'throw them out' election. We start with 235, and though I think we will takeaway 30 again, we will likely lose about 4.

After the election, I'm headed to Bahia Honda in the FL Keys for a week. Ah. Then it's on to 2009, and on with making sure that Brian Moran wins the governorship of Virginia. And for 2010, MyDD will be getting involved in a number of efforts to hold Democrats accountable.

Policy-wise, what I am most looking forward in the federal Democratic agenda is a gigantic move toward removing the American addiction to foreign fossil fuels. That has to happen. Even bigger though, I'm looking foward to the USA being a part of the world again; instead of going solo we go global. If the above predictions all play out today, can you imagine how transformational our policies could become that Jan-March of 2009?

Tags: 2008, Barack Obama, Democratic (all tags)

Comments

46 Comments

Re: blowout opening

If he governs like he campaigns, we will all be happy.

Well said Jerome. And kudos to you and your site for providing such a fascinating place to be during this historic campaign.

by brit 2008-11-04 03:15AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Jerome, just out of curiosity, which four seats do you see us losing? I've steeled myself for Mahoney, Lampson, and Kanjorski going down, but I fear anything beyond that might shatter my frail constitution...

by JFMDC 2008-11-04 03:16AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

There are other close ones, I expect we could lose, Cazayoux & Murtha.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-04 03:55AM | 0 recs
That idiot Mahoney......

Seriously, what the hell happened there?  That idiot lucks out when his predecessor has a sex scandal so Mahoney decided to have a few himself?

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-11-04 06:52AM | 0 recs
kanjorski and murtha seem pretty safe

judging by the number of Mccain murtha and Mccain kanjorski signs.

not that that is somethign to judge on. anyone got info from the ground??

by RisingTide 2008-11-04 07:23AM | 0 recs
One guy in georgia is at risk

Barrows, maybe?

by edparrot 2008-11-04 04:31AM | 0 recs
Sorry double post

I think these are the biggest two factors too

Policy-wise, what I am most looking forward in the federal Democratic agenda is a gigantic move toward removing the American addiction to foreign fossil fuels. That has to happen. Even bigger though, I'm looking foward to the USA being a part of the world again; instead of going solo we go global.

I can't tell you how much your global influence in Europe, Africa, Asia and particularly the Middle East will be expanded by an Obama win

by brit 2008-11-04 03:17AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening
Ahhh Bahia Honda. Beautiful pristine beach.
Can't wait for this to be over and for an Obama presidency.
by b1oody8romance7 2008-11-04 03:22AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Yea, I was there about 3 or four years ago, I love it.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-04 03:56AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

My family has a house in Big Pine Key.  I will be down for a few days in the next week or so.  Email me if you want to get together.

by Winston Smith 2008-11-04 05:30AM | 0 recs
6.4%: Clinton did it twice

Along with that EV count also. Anyways, I am hoping for something like 10% blowout with around 400 EV's.  

by ann0nymous 2008-11-04 03:33AM | 0 recs
Re: 6.4%: Clinton did it twice

Me too. Because of the cell phone factor plus ground game, I'm adding 4% to the swing state totals - which brings in Georgia (just) with some others.

396 - that's my wildly optimistic prediction. But given the organisation I've seen in action, it could be possible

by brit 2008-11-04 03:35AM | 0 recs
Me too

I am also hoping for a cellphone only effect. My EV is 393 though.

by ann0nymous 2008-11-04 03:40AM | 0 recs
Re: 6.4%: Clinton did it twice
I was listening to satellite radio yesterday and they were talking to pollsters that said that studies have shown that there is no difference politically between those who have landlines and those who have cellphone only.
What's your thoughts on this?
by skohayes 2008-11-04 04:03AM | 0 recs
Studies have shown

Studies have shown that within a demographic, eg white males under 30, there is minimal difference. OTOH, recent polling that includes cell phones has given Obama a greater lead than polling that is only landline.  Now, this may be due to an enthusiasm gap skewing which cell-only voters agree to be polled, or it may be a cultural factor that breaks earlier patterns. Either way, a lot of pollsters will be studying the results to see how much they need to change their methodologies in the future.

by IVR Polls 2008-11-04 06:01AM | 0 recs
my mind is now at rest

if jerome is calling it for obama, then it's over.

by highgrade 2008-11-04 03:35AM | 0 recs
Re: my mind is now at rest

Really?  It makes me nervous.  I wish he'd have stuck with the other PUMA's to the bitter end.

by SpanishFly 2008-11-04 06:03AM | 0 recs
Re: my mind is now at rest

WOAH WOAH WOAH...

He may have been a bit grudging, but Jerome has ALWAYS said he will vote for the Dem nominee.  THAT is not a puma.

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-04 09:22AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

well I voted!

Obama/Biden! and Al Franken!

by TruthMatters 2008-11-04 03:38AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

I really have my hopes pinned on Franken, let's hope it's a blowout!

by skohayes 2008-11-04 04:05AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Obama
Franken
Walz
Liebling
All incumbents for judicial
Kennely, Resman, and Fischer for School board.

Gobama!

Best. Candidate. Possible.

by lojasmo 2008-11-04 04:23AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Roll Bide(n)

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-04 09:20AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening
I went by my polling place this morning at 7AM and there was a line out the door already (not unusual), so I'll vote early this afternoon before the after work crowd hits.
I actually hung some Obama signs out yesterday in this very evangelical red red Kansas small town and I still have all my windows this morning, so that's a good sign.
by skohayes 2008-11-04 04:08AM | 0 recs
based on your ID name

that would be Hayes?  I've  been out of school too long to know if we still do, but in high school, we used to play Hayes every year in several sports.

by aggieric 2008-11-04 04:13AM | 0 recs
Cheers Jerome!

Thanks for maintaining a great blog all year. I have appreciated your level headed approach throughout the seaon. At least I saw it as level headed because I happened to be on the same level most of the time. ;)

Cheers to Obama and may he pull it off today. And cheers to all of us for next year and beyond.

by carrieboberry 2008-11-04 04:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Cheers Jerome!

Thanks.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-04 04:37AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

You have to have a greater appreciation for Lyndon Johnson today.  When he passed the civil rights legislation he said the Dems would lose the south for a generation.  

Today the fruits of his vision is a black man becoming President.

by Organic George 2008-11-04 04:23AM | 0 recs
LBJ would be happy

He would have been pleased to see Obama elected. It took tremendous courage to risk forcing passage of the Civil Rights Act, as well as a lot of political capital.  

LBJ wasn't perfect, but he did have courage and vision and knew how to twist arms to get things done.

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-04 04:36AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

I do; Johnson's work is underestimated domestically. Vietnam was his downfall.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-04 04:38AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

LBJ!

I have a major fondness for LBJ. He was before my time -- born 1970. But when I lived Austin TX, I visited the LBJ Library several times. Whenever anyone from out of town visited, I took them there. Or even other times, I just went there.

I developed a great appreciation for him and what he accomplished during his presidency. Vietnam not being one of them.

by carrieboberry 2008-11-04 04:57AM | 0 recs
I'm looking forward to health care reform

though I think it will be slow and rank and file voters will probably have to push really hard to make it happen.

Even if Dems take stronger control of Congress, the lobbyists still hold tremendous power there.  They represent the interests who gave a lot of money to Dem races.

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-04 04:39AM | 0 recs
Re: I'm looking forward to health care reform

I agree.  I can see this becoming the biggest test for a Democratic controlled Congress.  I think we will have to push so that we don't get half measures.

by nycdem 2008-11-04 05:01AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

All praise Obama?  Isn't that a bit sudden?  After the last twenty-two months don't you think you should ease into this a bit more gradually?  Think of your readers and the potential whiplash injuries.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-11-04 04:42AM | 0 recs
For a day

I wonder if you are actually going to enjoy tonight.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-04 05:06AM | 0 recs
Re: For a day

I owe you a great debt.  I started out here naïve but determined and I've learned a lot, read Alinsky and stayed the course through thick and thin, a 'radicalising' experience, to be sure.  There is no 'enjoy' in politics, only outcomes.  Players come and go without umbrage or affectation of fellowship; revolution not revelation.  Power, as Obama says, never concedes and the struggle never ceases for a moment.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-11-04 11:07AM | 0 recs
I like this part:

And for 2010, MyDD will be getting involved in a number of efforts to hold Democrats accountable.

This part I really agree with. Getting democrats elected is only half the battle. Getting them to be responsible stewards of our government and upholding them to the highest of standards is just as important.
 

by Jon Niola 2008-11-04 05:01AM | 0 recs
IN, MO, NC

They were just icing on the cake.  Really, it's rather amazing that we're considering any of them going blue.  All of us who've been paying close attention know that Missouri is nowhere near the center of American politics anymore.  It's more like +10 Red at this point... disgusting.

Now, the center is probably Colorado, surrounded by PA on the left and VA on the right.  

by BPK80 2008-11-04 05:17AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Great post, Jerome. Thanks for manning your guns throughout this campaign. I'm going wild and betting on 400EVs.

Now back to keeping GOTV running smoothly.

by souvarine 2008-11-04 05:19AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Flak?

Boy is that an understatement and more..

by obama4presidente 2008-11-04 06:07AM | 0 recs
Yeah you did...but glad to have you on our side!

Kudo's for reunification! and thanks for all you do to promote Dem tickets.

by netgui68 2008-11-04 06:54AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

May I respectfully request that the first thing to be done in January (and Senator Obama should introduce the bill) is a FULLY funded reform of the registration and voting systems

by Eli Rabett 2008-11-04 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Can it be second to Health care?

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-04 09:11AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

You predict the largest Democratic blowout since 1968: 6.4 margin of victory in the popular vote; 338-200 EVs.

Quick History Lesson:

Clinton '96: 8.5 margin of victory; 379-159 EVs
Clinton '92: 5.3 margin of victory; 370-168 EVs

Personally, I think we've got a pretty good shot at beating Clinton's EV margin. If we have a significant edge in GOTV, we might even crack 400. That would be a historic blowout, but it's not what you're predicting.

by Justin Alexander 2008-11-04 07:46AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

I'm wondering if its the fact Clinton never got a majority of the vote, he simply got pluralities.

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-04 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Clearly, Jerome, you should have worked for several more senate campaigns!

A really good picture of where we are right now. Thanks.

And thanks also for reminding us all of LBJ. I was protesting the war in the 1960s, but still remember him as a man unable to deal with a tragic choice in Vietnam, not as someone who wanted the war. I was too young and too far away to understand the enormity of his actions in the civil rights laws.

For anyone who is interested, I highly recommend the books of the White House tapes during the Johnson years put together by Michael Beschloss. He was crude and an incredible arm-twister, but he was burning his political capital to change American society.

by anoregonreader 2008-11-04 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: blowout opening

Cool... Your predictions are inline with mine except I have 364 for the EV and only 8 senate seats.  Lets hope we both underestimated the Senate and the EV.

What do you consider a blowout?  What are the parameters?  Because your (and Mine) EV totals are lower than Clintons, which you do not consider a blowout...

I'm just curious the parameters that equate a blowout in your opinion.   Please let me know.

Thanks!

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-04 09:06AM | 0 recs

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