The Last Month
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 02:23:56 PM EST
Take a look at the national polling the last month of the campaign, pulling out a few of the more spurious surveys and turning down the sensitivity of the smoothing so as not to overstate the importance in minor blips:
As you can see, Barack Obama's lead is actually larger today than it was a month ago. While Obama has seen a slow but steady increase in his level of support during this time frame, John McCain's performance has been a bit more erratic, losing a bit of support during the middle of the month before subsequently gaining it back, plus a bit more (perhaps a point or two). No real tightening in the campaign, no matter what the McCain campaign says; even if McCain ended up netting a point on Obama in the last week or two, the fact that Obama clearly crossed the 50 percent threshold is significantly more meaningful. While Obama might have built his lead during the final 26 days of September, when the story of the election is told, McCain's inability to do much of anything to eat away at Obama's lead during the final month of the election just may be the most important development to point to.