Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Well, it's about that time again folks. I'm always a little reluctant to write down my electoral predictions, both out of a desire not to jinx anything and because posterity isn't always terribly kind to these things. Looking back, for instance, my picks from 2004 haven't really withstood the test of time (though my picks in 2006, 2007 and earlier this year were significantly more on the mark). But without further ado, this is what I'm seeing.

On the presidential level, I see Barack Obama taking home the popular vote by roughly a 52 percent to 46 percent margin. In the electoral college, I see a 357 to 181 split for Obama that works out as follows: Obama taking all of the Kerry states, plus the Gore states of Iowa and New Mexico; Obama picking up the traditional swing states of Ohio and Florida; Obama winning the emerging swing states of Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado; Obama picking off a single electoral vote in Nebraska; and Obama gaining three more electoral votes by carrying either either North Dakota or Montana.

In the Senate, I see the Democrats coming up just short of their goal of 60 seats, picking up eight instead of nine this fall. Under this scenario, the first five seats picked up would be Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska and Colorado, followed by Oregon and North Carolina. The eighth seat is a little less clear, either coming from a tough win for Al Franken in Minnesota or a December special election victory by Jim Martin in Georgia, where a runoff election is held in the event that no candidate receives 50 percent plus one of the vote.

On to the House, I see the Democrats gaining 39 seats to grow their majority to 274 -- or more than a 100-seat advantage over the Republicans. The Democrats won't be able to repeat their unprecedented feat from 2006, holding on to each of the seats they were holding coming into election day, but by and large the few Democrats in tough reelection campaigns will hold their seats.

In Governors races, which I haven't been watching as closely as I did in 2006, it appears to me that Jay Nixon (D) should win Missouri's governorship, the only party switch of the night. The Republicans should hold Indiana's governorship in a tough contest, and the Democrats should hold the governorships of North Carolina and Washington in very tight races. After tonight, then, the Democratic advantage in governorships would sit at 29 to 21 over the Republicans.

That's what I've got. Your thoughts?

Josh and I are up in Las Vegas through election day blogging about the campaign, and our coverage has graciously been sponsored by SEIU.

Tags: House 2008, Senate 2008, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

30 Comments

Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Make sure you track this contest... I'm curious who will be closest...

My HEART says 538-0 for Obama... but that won't happen.

So my real predictions:

Pres:   364 Obama - McSame - 174
All Kerry States plus Florida, NC, VA, OH, IA, NM, CO, NV and IN (but you could see MO instead).   52-46 Obama... 2% other.

Senate:  +8

House: +26

Governors: +2

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-03 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

I just read this again...holy crap, are you psychic?? What's the stock market going to do on Monday??

by Spiffarino 2008-11-15 07:38AM | 0 recs
You mean Gore States Iowa and New Mexico

Kerry won NH Gore did not.

by Davidsfr 2008-11-03 04:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Is it just me...but given that Democrats now have 235 seats in the House, wouldn't a pick up of 29 seats get them only to 264, not 274.

by gorebeatbush2 2008-11-03 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

they have 236 seats.

by esconded 2008-11-03 05:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Isn't one of them vacant because of Congresswoman Tubbs-Jones' death?  I wasn't counting that one.

by gorebeatbush2 2008-11-03 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

You are correct.

by esconded 2008-11-03 06:01PM | 0 recs
Ohio vacant seat

   might as well call it Dem because it is a supersafe urban Cleveland seat.

by Zack from the SFV 2008-11-03 10:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Thanks for the catch -- I guess that happens when I type too fast.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-11-03 05:21PM | 0 recs
So where is

Jerome hanging out?

by kevin22262 2008-11-03 05:16PM | 0 recs
54 O, 45 M

I'm feeling it. As for electoral, I feel the same as Jonathan, in that Obama can break 350.

by iohs2008 2008-11-03 05:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

President:

Obama 379 (53%)
McCain 159 (45%)

President Obama wins: CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, IL, IN, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WI
McCain wins: AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

The closest states are IN (Obama), GA (Obama), NC (Obama), MO (McCain), and MT (McCain).

Senate:

Dems +9

Dem Pickups: VA, NM, CO, NH, NC, AK, OR, MN, GA
GOP Pickups: Nada (in fact, no race for a Dem seat is within 15 points)

Closest race - GA (won in runoff in December).
Say hello to Senator Al Franken

House:

Dems +29

Dem Pickups
AK-AL, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-24, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, LA-04, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-06, NC-08, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-09, NM-01, NM-02, NV-02, NV-03, NY-13, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-02, VA-11, WA-08

GOP Pickups
FL-16, TX-22, PA-11, PA-12

CA Prop8 = FAIL

All in all, not quite as thorough of an annihilation of the GOP as I'd like, but not bad.

by NJIndependent 2008-11-03 05:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Wow. That was a lot of work. Nice job!

by Spiffarino 2008-11-03 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Very nice round up, but I live in Las Vegas and I don't see NV-2 going Democratic....it would be nice, but i don't see it. NV 3 on the other hand....

by werd2406 2008-11-03 05:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

I had 30 specific seats that I really think should flip with the feeling that there would be a few others.  NV-02 is one of the "others" that I added to the final prediction to get to the final line I wanted.  I don't have any sort of intimate knowledge of the district, but this is the type of disrict that I think Obama will have coattails in by getting people to think about voting Dem when they normally wouldn't.  We'll see, but that is one that I wouldn't be too surprised to miss.

by NJIndependent 2008-11-03 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Should be VA-05, not VA-02 (along with VA-11).  Sorry, getting stuff mixed up.

by NJIndependent 2008-11-03 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Prez: Obama 52, McRage 46, Others 2
States: All Kerry plus CO FL IA NV NM OH VA and the surprise pick-up of ND, which makes 341-197, close to today's Poll Watcher.

I doubt Obama wins Indiana, but it will be close. Same with Missouri.

NC won't be as close as the polls suggest because the fundies will show up en masse as usual, and they run GOP GOTV campaigns through their church registries. Yeah, I know, but they answer to a "higher" law. </eyeroll>

In all, it's going to be a lot of fun tomorrow night.

by Spiffarino 2008-11-03 05:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

They want Indiana really badly... if either Flips, I'm betting Indy.

by yitbos96bb 2008-11-03 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Having longstanding family ties to southern Indiana I just think there are too many old-style Republicans to overcome. Indiana Republicans are like Southern Democrats in that they identify by party if not always by party ideology. They split tickets regularly but at a presidential level tend to follow party. I hope that'll change soon.

by Spiffarino 2008-11-03 06:12PM | 0 recs
Oh, and by the way

I hope I'm really really really wrong about Indiana.

:^)

by Spiffarino 2008-11-03 06:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

12 days after your post I would like to acknowledge that yitbos96bb was SPOT ON about Indiana!

Way to call it!

by Spiffarino 2008-11-15 07:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Jonathan, you don't see NV going for Obama?

I would think he has a better chance taking NV than FL...

by werd2406 2008-11-03 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Another too-quick typing error! Thanks for the catch.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-11-03 06:04PM | 0 recs
Your 2006 predictions were pretty good

and your predictions for this election seem pretty realistic.

I'm a little more optimistic - Franken will win MN, giving Dems 60 in the senate.

The economy is just too scary for many voters to keep Republics in power. News today of dropping auto sales, Circuit City store closings, etc. are putting fear into many who would usually vote for the status quo.

There may not be much initial progress if Obama wins and Dems gain control of the senate.  It's going to take the current Congressional leadership a while to get used to leading and overcome their fear.  

Have fun guys!

by Betsy McCall 2008-11-03 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

I hope Franken will win, but I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't..it's REALLY a toss up....I'm still thinking 58 seats and a run off for 59....but hopefully 60! :)

by werd2406 2008-11-03 06:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

The final popular vote will be:

52.2% Obama
47.8% McCain
1% Other

This will mean that Obama will be the first Democratic candidate for president to win a simple majority of the popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  And Obama will have the highest percent of the vote for any Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.  

Throw out that election and you have to reach back to freakin' FDR in 1944 to find another Democrat with a share of the popular vote higher than 52%.  FDR!

I think Obama will only end up in the low 300s in the electoral college though--since his popular vote margin will mostly come from gigantic wins in CA, NY, and IL.  He will lose by a hair in OH and FL, but will just barely eke out wins in MO and NC.  Montana will shock the world tomorrow night and turn bright blue.  Georgia will come tantalizingly close but will slip through Obama's fingers in the end.

by Will Graham 2008-11-03 06:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

Whoa, I just realized my numbers add up to 101%.  I'll amend my prediction thusly:

Obama: 52.1%
McCain: 47.2%
Other: 0.7%

by Will Graham 2008-11-03 06:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

please, you sound a GOPer lauding Jimmy Carter cuz he got over the arbitrary 50% of the vote. Bill Clinton easily woulda won it in both election, including 1992 if Perot weren't in. Please, show some honor. I don't care if Obama is Prez for 8 years, the states that are his base, like CT, ME, NH, VT, CA, MI, IL (his home state), DE, MD and NJ were all first won by Clinton in 1992 after being lost by Dukakis, Mondale, Carter II, McGovern, and HHH (who lost most of them), and it was Bill Clinton who made those states Democratic base.  

by Lakrosse 2008-11-03 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

I was going to predict: but this is dead in the money.

by RAULC 2008-11-03 07:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Jonathan's Prediction Thread

I can't remember what blog I read this on, but I believe the Vermont governorship race has a chance to switch from Republican to Democrat this year because if a candidate doesn't get over 50% (which is quite possible in this race) it then  gets tossed into the state senate which a majority are Democrats and therefore are going to put a Democratic governor into power.

by harmonialvalue 2008-11-03 09:14PM | 0 recs

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