Jonathan's Prediction Thread
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:39:15 PM EST
Well, it's about that time again folks. I'm always a little reluctant to write down my electoral predictions, both out of a desire not to jinx anything and because posterity isn't always terribly kind to these things. Looking back, for instance, my picks from 2004 haven't really withstood the test of time (though my picks in 2006, 2007 and earlier this year were significantly more on the mark). But without further ado, this is what I'm seeing.
On the presidential level, I see Barack Obama taking home the popular vote by roughly a 52 percent to 46 percent margin. In the electoral college, I see a 357 to 181 split for Obama that works out as follows: Obama taking all of the Kerry states, plus the Gore states of Iowa and New Mexico; Obama picking up the traditional swing states of Ohio and Florida; Obama winning the emerging swing states of Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado; Obama picking off a single electoral vote in Nebraska; and Obama gaining three more electoral votes by carrying either either North Dakota or Montana.
In the Senate, I see the Democrats coming up just short of their goal of 60 seats, picking up eight instead of nine this fall. Under this scenario, the first five seats picked up would be Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Alaska and Colorado, followed by Oregon and North Carolina. The eighth seat is a little less clear, either coming from a tough win for Al Franken in Minnesota or a December special election victory by Jim Martin in Georgia, where a runoff election is held in the event that no candidate receives 50 percent plus one of the vote.
On to the House, I see the Democrats gaining 39 seats to grow their majority to 274 -- or more than a 100-seat advantage over the Republicans. The Democrats won't be able to repeat their unprecedented feat from 2006, holding on to each of the seats they were holding coming into election day, but by and large the few Democrats in tough reelection campaigns will hold their seats.
In Governors races, which I haven't been watching as closely as I did in 2006, it appears to me that Jay Nixon (D) should win Missouri's governorship, the only party switch of the night. The Republicans should hold Indiana's governorship in a tough contest, and the Democrats should hold the governorships of North Carolina and Washington in very tight races. After tonight, then, the Democratic advantage in governorships would sit at 29 to 21 over the Republicans.
That's what I've got. Your thoughts?
Josh and I are up in Las Vegas through election day blogging about the campaign, and our coverage has graciously been sponsored by SEIU.