Final Tracking Poll Update: A 7-8 Point Lead for Obama
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 09:21:45 AM EST
Here are today's numbers:
There's a lot more polling than just the tracking polls this morning:
- NBC News/Wall Street Journal (.pdf): Obama 51 percent/McCain 43 percent
- Marist: Obama 53 percent/McCain 44 percent
- Fox News: Obama 50 percent/McCain 43 percent
- CNN: Obama 53 percent/McCain 46 percent
- CBS News: Obama 54 percent/McCain 41 percent
- Pew Research: Obama 52 percent/McCain 46 percent
- ABC News/Washington Post: Obama 54 percent/McCain 43 percent
- Battleground Tracker (.pdf): Obama 50 percent/McCain 44 percent
- Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50 percent/McCain 42 percent
When you throw all of this data together in the mix, Barack Obama's average lead over John McCain is 51.77 percent to 43.85 percent, a slightly wider margin than seen just in the four daily tracking polls above. Obama's median advantage across these surveys is a similar 52.00 percent to 44.00 percent, suggesting a fairly even distribution of results in the final round of polling. [Adding in the Ipsos poll into the mix marginally moves the average while keeping the median stable.]
Does this mean that Obama will win by 7 or 8 points tomorrow in the popular vote, or even that he is assured of winning tomorrow? No. But it has to be disheartening to the McCain campaign to still be unable to crack 45 percent a day before the election and see the polling unanimously show Obama at or above 50 percent across the nation. Throw on top of it the fact that, according to First Read, 111 straight reputable national surveys have shown Obama leading and you get the sense that it will be very difficult for McCain to capture the popular vote tomorrow.
We are 1 day out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?
Josh and I are up in Las Vegas through election day blogging about the campaign, and our coverage has graciously been sponsored by SEIU.