Election Prediction Thread

Bumped - Todd

It's that time. What do you think is going to happen tomorrow? Give us your best guess for the Electoral College, popular vote % and the number of Senate and House seats Democrats will pick up (if you think Martin will win in a December run-off, don't include that -- only what's going to happen tomorrow.)

Tags: election day (all tags)

Comments

70 Comments

My bold predictions...

And I preface this by saying I will predict boldly, because if Obama loses I will feel like shit regardless.  So, I might as well be happy today.

Electoral College:

Obama: 359

McCain: 179

Popular Vote:  53.4% Obama, 45.7% McCain, 1% other (ok, .9%)

Senate: 59-41 (including those wacky Indies)

House: Dems will pick up 32 seats, taking them to 270 on the nose.

Happy Election Day!

by Blue In SC and MD 2008-11-03 01:03PM | 0 recs
Except taking 32 seats would move them to 268.

Sigh...Math, what a pain.

by Blue In SC and MD 2008-11-03 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama/Biden 367    McCain/Palin 171

Obama 72.4 million votes (54%)
McCain 61.6 million votes (46%)

7 Senate pick ups: AK, OR, CO, NM, NH, VA, NC    (GA goes to run off, Martin still loses).

23 House pick ups, so 256-179.

Yes on Prop 8 passes by 1-2% due to lower than anticipated youth turn out.

by reggie44pride 2008-11-03 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama 53% McCain 47%, EV = 178R/360D,  Dems reach 59 seat majority (failing to get desired 60)

by tominstl 2008-11-03 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

If everything goes poorly for our side--Obama will still win with 290 or so EV and 51% of the vote. I think there is a good chance, however, that everything breaks our way! Then he gets about 390 EV and 53-54% of the vote. It will probably fall somewhere in-between, but I am hoping we bury them.  

by dewoodard 2008-11-03 01:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Surprisingly crushing victory, 55% or more, 385 EV's, roughly 32 House seats and a knife-edge win of 10 Senate seats.

Bachmann, Stevens, Coleman and Chambliss all lose.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-11-03 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

And if this isn't a compelling closing argument I'm darned wondering what else he might say.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-11-03 04:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama 318 McCain 220

Senate--pick-ups in VA, NH, CO, NM, NC, OR, AK, and GA.  They'll be counting ballots until dawn in MN before Coleman ekes out a victory.  GA will be the shocker.

House--an additional 25 house seats.  Musgrave and her homophobia and Bachman and her tinfoil tiara will be sent packing.

Gay marriage amendment fails in CA, but passes in FL and AZ.

by psychodrew 2008-11-03 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

375 EV
53-45 PV
60 seats in senate counting independents.  

It's going to be a freakin monumental landslide, larger than most are predicting.  Prehaps even 400 EV and a ten point PV spread.  States, and downticket races, that no one thought would flip dem, will flip dem.  Cross your fingers we win AZ!! That would be the most beautiful thing.

Next up: are we ready to govern?

by chubbar 2008-11-03 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama--52.02%, McCain--46.02%

Obama--364, McCain--174

Senate: 56-44 (minus one very confused Joe Lieberman)

Point of interest: you heard it here first: I predict that turnout as a % of VAP is 69.75%. Yeah. I said it.

If you'd like to see the figures to back them up, E-mail me (itstands@gmail.com).

by publius americana 2008-11-03 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

My republican friend thinks it will be,  McCain 52, Obama 48...

Yes, a 17 point swing in gallup in 48 hours...

He is convinced that as many as 30 million people will suddenly decide to just not pull the lever for a black man!

Whatever helps him sleep at night, I guess...  at least he gets to sleep!  I'm still nervous!

by LordMike 2008-11-03 01:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

My district gains Frank Kratovil and rejects Andy Harris, if Obama's coattails are long enough here in Maryland's 1st Congressional District.

Obama by a majority. Sorry, I've read so many different interpretations, I just don't know whether it's a landslide or a squeaker, but I believe the downticket draft will be substantial.

by kabalabonga 2008-11-03 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Crushing republican defeat.

350 EV at least.  I'm hoping (hoping hoping) for 375.

6 point popular vote spread.

At least 25 house seats.

At least 8 Senate seats.

by lojasmo 2008-11-03 01:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Worried 0% Not-Worried 100%

Smiling 100% Frowning 0%

Concerned 0% Relaxed 100%

Dancing around like a kid on Christmas 100%

by QTG 2008-11-03 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

What are we doing tomorrow at the polls to ensure the same thing doesn't happen last time when Republican plants were there challenging people's votes which made them have to file provisional ballots (which were never counted)?

by jrsygrl 2008-11-03 01:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama and the DNC have thousands of lawyers on the ground in swing states... and in some states, it won't matter.  Ohio eliminated partisan challenges 2 years ago in their election reforms.

by LordMike 2008-11-03 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

I didn't know that they eliminated challenges altogether - Thanks for sharing.

As for lawyers, well its good we have them, but we had them last time & really when it reaches that point we can't do much (we don't have SC control which is what happened with Gore).

by jrsygrl 2008-11-03 02:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

This will be the shocker.
McCain 50.69%
Obama  48.21%
Other  1.1%
Ev 272 McCain
   267 Obama.

Damm New Hampshire!

by letmemin 2008-11-03 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Hey, I think it's my republican friend!!!

You really believe this garbage, don't you?

by LordMike 2008-11-03 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

I hope that isn't true. With the  garbage that happened in the last 2 elections, which when it came to actual votes & the EV we won, I kind of almost prefer my mindset today. I still have cautious optimism, whereas tomorrow if more bogus shit goes down like it has the past 2 times there goes my last shred of hope. We have an official disaster on our hands.

by jrsygrl 2008-11-03 02:07PM | 0 recs
My numbers

Electoral:
Obama/Biden = 378
mcpalin = 160

Percentage of Popular vote:
Obama/Biden = 55%
mcpalin = 44%

Senate: Democrats will sit at 58

House... not really sure. I have not had time to keep up on the house races much.

My State of WA.

Chris Gregoire will win Gov. again by a small margin but a bigger margin then the first time.

Darcy Burner could win by a small margin with the coattail effect of Barack Obama, which will also help Gregoire.

My numbers show that I am either a fool or very optomistic, more so then I was a few weeks back.

by kevin22262 2008-11-03 01:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama 51.5%
McCain 47.5%
Others 1%

EVs 311-227 Obama

Senate +7
House +15

by esconded 2008-11-03 01:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

2.0% other, 52.1% Obama, 45.4% McCain.

Electoral College: 320 Obama.

by Reluctantpopstar 2008-11-03 01:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

364 EVs, 53.4% popular vote, 7 in the Senate (I'd say 8 but feel obliged to stick to my original predictions from last week), and I'm not following the House closely enough

by Nathan Empsall 2008-11-03 01:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

The shock of the night McCain wins Texas, 52-47 giving Obama a major boost in the Popular vote; 56-43-1
Electoral: 370-168

Senate 8 pickups
House 34 pickups

Prop 8 fails.

by Texdude50 2008-11-03 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Electoral college: Obama 367 - Obama 171
Popular Vote: Obama 53%, McCain 46%, Others 1%

Senate: +8 Democrats, plus Georgia goes to a runoff
House: +34 Democrats
Governors: +1 Democrat (MO; Dems hold onto NC and WA)
Prop 8 in CA fails

by jsramek 2008-11-03 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Several months ago my Excel model indicated 51.5% was Obama's median. I posted that on several sites and I'll stick with it, although admittedly it appears to be low, after the bump from the economic collapse. I'm stubborn.

Obama 51.5%
McCain 46.8%
Third parties combined 1.7%

I think we'll carry the major states like Virginia, Florida, Ohio and Colorado, but fall short in the aggressive outreach states like Indiana, Montana, North Carolina and especially Georgia.

In the senate, we take everything with the solid leads but Franken loses by a few points and Chambliss narrowly avoids a runoff.

The two tight governorships fall our way, Gregoire and Perdue by about 2 points apiece.

I haven't followed the House races closely but I'll say +24. For some reason I think Bachmann holds on. I expect to be disappointed in the 3 hotly contested South Florida seats. When I watched a local feed of the Miami/Virginia game on Saturday, the commercials for those Cuban incumbents were everywhere, relentless negativity. Unfortunately, that plays well in Miami. Here in Nevada, Dina Titus ousts scumbag Jon Porter by less than 2%, but Jill Derby is walloped by Dean Heller in NV-2, by about 10-12 points in a rematch she never should have pursued.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-11-03 02:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Forgot to pick Nevada: Obama wins by 3.7%

by Gary Kilbride 2008-11-03 02:21PM | 0 recs
The House

That's one reason why I think gains in the House will be limited.  I do believe Porter goes down in NV-3, and there are other opportunities for gains, the Dems are going to lose a few seats of their own.

As for Florida, I'm hoping Obama, if elected, can somehow get the Cuban people engaged.  I don't think the Cuban seats will go Dem until after the Castros die or are forced out of power.

by esconded 2008-11-03 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Gary, you and I are uncannily close to each other.  See my predictions upthread, which I wrote around noon today but just posted in this thread.

by InigoMontoya 2008-11-03 06:36PM | 0 recs
here's what I predicted at Daily Kos
    * 58 Democratic Senate seats (gain of 7)
    * 42 Republican Senate seats
    * 261 Democratic House seats
    * 174 Republican House seats
    * 353 Obama Electoral Votes
    * 185 McCain Electoral Votes
    * 53.7 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
    * 45.2 McCain Popular Vote Percentage
by desmoinesdem 2008-11-03 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Senate:

Dem pick ups - VA, NM, CO, NC, MN, OR, AK, NH

Dems 59 - 41 Reps

President:

Obama 333 - 205 McCain

Obama 54% - 45% McCain

by liberalj 2008-11-03 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Really...

Obama gets 396 EV's, 57% of the popular vote.  Not vapor dreams, just my gut feeling.

Senate:  Dem's get 60 WITHOUT indies...

House: 37 seats picked up with BACHMANN LOOSING!

Don't really care about the numbers for the other competitors.

by Hammer1001 2008-11-03 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread
332-206 (Kerry + NM, IA, CO, VA, NV, MT, FL and MO)
52-46 in the popular vote
Senate + 7 seats
House + 26 seats
by GermanAmericanDem 2008-11-03 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread
Obama's ground game will come through. He will win the electorial vote 349-189. The popular vote percentage will round to a 52/46 Obama advantege.
The new Senate will have 8 Dem gains for a 59/41 balance.
The new house will have 35 Dem gains for a 269/166 balance.
by herbal tee 2008-11-03 03:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

A close election--Obama 51--McCain 48

Electoral votes--Obama 286 McCain 252

Dems gain 20 Congressional seats

and 7 Senate seats, with the ninth going to a runoff.

by flatblade 2008-11-03 04:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

I'm feeling a bit more bullish than a few days ago.

EV: Obama 353-185 (Kerry + NM, IA, CO, VA, NC, NV, OH, FL)

Popular: Obama 51.7-45.6, 137 million votes cast

House: +28

Senate: +8

by Deeg 2008-11-03 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama: 364
McCain: 174

Popular vote -- Obama + 6 points, Indies taking 2%,
So ...

Obama  -- 51.1%
McCain -- 44.9%
Other  -- 2%

(Noticed the decimals for the tie breaker! :) ).

Senate seats pickup -- 8 seats, gets them to 59 with Sanders and Joe

House Seats -- Pickup 32

by JonathanL 2008-11-03 04:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama: 368 EVs
McCain: 170 EVs

Pop. Vote: Obama 52, McCain 46 (Other 2)

Senate: Dems +7
House: Dems +26

by Hoyapaul 2008-11-03 05:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread
EV: 318 - 220
PV: 51-47-2
SEN: +7
HOUSE: +30
by highgrade 2008-11-03 06:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

378, 54%, 57-41-2, 286-167

by Benstrader 2008-11-03 06:18PM | 0 recs
C-Span screen capture at Manassas event

jalogo

They're worried about the forecasted rain in Virginia and North Carolina tomorrow.  Obama referenced this several times in Manassas tonight.

355 Obama Electoral Votes (upsets: MT and ND)
183 McCain Electoral Votes

54.1% Obama Popular Vote Percentage
45.4% McCain Popular Vote Percentage

57 Democratic Senate seats
40 Republican Senate seats

260 Democratic House seats
175 Republican House seats

by mboehm 2008-11-03 06:19PM | 0 recs
You heard it here first! Bookmark this one :)

Obama 54%
McSame 45%
Other 1%

As for EV's, I say Obama breaks 350 easy, and I'm willing to wager that he breaks 375.

Obama: 375
McPain: 163

Senate Seats: 60 (+9)

by iohs2008 2008-11-03 06:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

EC= 353 Obama
         185 McCain

Popular Vote= 51.2 O
                           46.2 M
                            2.6 Other

Senate= 57 D
                 41 R
                   2  I

House=  260 D
                 175 R

MN Senate=  43.8 Franken
                          42.4 Coleman
                          12.8 Barkley

by billreef 2008-11-03 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama: 52.1%
McCain: 47.2%
Other: 0.7%

Obama becomes the first Democrat to win a simple majority of the total popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976--and will receive the highest percent of the vote for a Dem since LBJ in 1964.

OH, FL, and GA come oh so close but then slip through Obama's fingers, but VA, MO and NC will come through.

Obama ends up with an electoral college total in the low-to-mid 300s and gets his popular vote victory largely from gigantic margins in solid blue, population heavy states like CA, NY, and IL.

I'll go out on a limb and say that MT shocks everyone and goes blue.

by Will Graham 2008-11-03 06:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama becomes the first Democrat to win a simple majority of the total popular vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976--and will receive the highest percent of the vote for a Dem since LBJ in 1964.
WOW, he may win "over 50%." Nice attempt to bash Clinton, who would have easily broken 50% if Perot hadn't been in the race. Margin of victory is what matters, not percentage of vote. Clinton's margins were way bigger than Carter, who could not govern. Clinton could do so much better than him. If Obama wins Carter style 50-48, he won't govern too well. a 49-40 win is actually more politically sound than 51-48

by Lakrosse 2008-11-03 07:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

My prediction, since it will technically happen tomorrow:

The final appearance of either rankles under one of his aliases, or handsomegent.  We will be told that we're horrible people.

by Jess81 2008-11-03 06:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Electoral College:   Obama 364, McCain 174

Popular vote:  Obama 51.5, McCain 46.9, Other 1.6

Senate:  D + 7  (plus Martin in run-off vs. Chambliss)

House:   Democrats pick up 36 seats.

Musgrave, Bachmann, and Scmidt all go down.  (Well, I can indulge myself a little, can't I?)

I hope Prop. 8 goes down in California...it's ugly bigotry.

by InigoMontoya 2008-11-03 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread
Obama 360 EV
Senate: Dem 57 + 2I
House: Dem 264
Prop. 8: No
The wicked witch of the North, Bachmann, wins
The wicked witch of the Far North, Palin, loses
The wicked witch of the South, Dole, loses
by zorro24 2008-11-03 06:40PM | 0 recs
Predictions are as follows


   Obama wins the electoral college 313 to 225.

  Obama comes close to making it a bigger margin, but will fall short in places such as IN, MT, GA, AZ, MO and OH. However, he'll win VA, FL, NM and CO to easily make up for it.

   Popular vote, I have it as Obama 51.5% to McCain's 47%, with the rest going to 3rd parties and write ins.

   Senate wise, I think we gain 7. We beat Dole, Coleman, Sununu, and Smith, for starters. However, in what will disappoint me bitterly, we will fall short against Mitch McConnell.

   The House, I predict a gain of 20 seats. We will see that sick woman Michelle Bachmann go down.

by southernman 2008-11-03 06:55PM | 0 recs
Easy call.

I'll have an ulcer by noon.

by scytherius 2008-11-03 07:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

EC
Obama - 338 EV

POPULAR VOTE
Obama 52.75%
McCain 46.25%
Other 1.00%

SENATE
D (57)
R (41)
I (2)

HOUSE
D (+26)

by The Stat Man 2008-11-03 07:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

A landslide without working-class whites, Latinos, and holding-on sweeties.

I'm not going to tell you which way the landslide goes, though...

by mistersite 2008-11-03 07:23PM | 0 recs
huh?

by kevin22262 2008-11-03 07:39PM | 0 recs
Re: huh?

Beats me.

by Jess81 2008-11-03 08:40PM | 0 recs
Dixville Notch

Per CNN Obama won Dixville Notch.  It is the first time in 40 years that a Democrat has won that town.

by gavoter 2008-11-03 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Dixville Notch

You say what?  You're kidding, right...?

by Shaun Appleby 2008-11-03 08:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Dixville Notch

Guess not:


DIXVILLE NOTCH, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama emerged victorious in the first election returns of the 2008 presidential race, winning 15 of 21 votes cast in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire.

People in the village in New Hampshire's northeast corner voted just after midnight Tuesday.

It was the first time since 1968 that the village leaned Democratic in an election.

Dixville Notch has spoken: It's Obama in a landslide CNN 4 Nov 08

Cool, first of many milestones.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-11-03 09:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

I predict

electoral vote
Obama 298
McCain 240

I just think winning VA, NC, and FL is gonna be hard for Obama, tho it could happen. The first two's voting history hasn't been very friendly to Dems in recent times, plus they are still the south, where Bradley is most likely. I have him winning all Kerry/Gore plus NV, CO, and OH, and OH cuz of the Dem machine there and its bellwether status.

popular vote
Obama 49.8
McCain 46.5
Barr 2.5
Nader 0.3

senate
58 D
41 R
1 I

House
250 D
185 R

by Lakrosse 2008-11-03 07:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

You think Virginia is more likely for Bradley to rear its mythical head than OHIO?

Well, one of us is going to be wrong.

by Jess81 2008-11-03 08:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

considering VA has gone for the GOP by much bigger margins in previous elections coupled with the fact its still a southern state, I absolutely believe Obama will more likely win Ohio than VA. White southerners have not changed much if they are over 40, and they will come out and vote. Ohio is a moderate northern state which has been close in the last few elections.

by Lakrosse 2008-11-03 08:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread


When in doubt, make a fool of yourself. There is a microscopically thin line between being brilliantly creative and acting like the most gigantic idiot on earth. So what the hell, leap.

Cynthia Heimel

by Shaun Appleby 2008-11-04 12:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

A somewhat bearish prediction, perhaps, but here it is:

EV:  Obama 278, McCain 260
(K + IA + CO + NM + NV for Obama)

(FL,OH,VA,NC and maybe MO will be close, but I fear that an unfortunate "fear of the other" that is more prevalent in the Rust Belt and South will deny Obama wins in these states.  This won't be a prohibitive factor in the 2004 Bush states that I predict Obama will carry.)

PV: Obama 51%, McCain 48%, Other 1%

Senate: Dems +7 (Pickups: NH,VA,NC,CO,NM,OR,AK)

House:  Dems +20 net

by AzSaxCat 2008-11-03 10:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

I guessed this over at Big Orange's prediction contest.  There are about 10,000 entries, so if they are all about as clueless as I, I have about a 99.99% chance of NOT winning the iBook :-(.

58 Democratic Senate seats
40 Republican Senate seats
(not counting independents)
260 Democratic House seats
175 Republican House seats
353 Obama Electoral Votes
185 McCain Electoral Votes
51.9 Obama Popular Vote Percentage
45.4 McCain Popular Vote Percentage

by Bruce Godfrey 2008-11-03 11:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Obama 393 EV's & 54.2% of the vote.

60 Senate seats

263 House seats

Welcome to the Bradley effect.  In reverse, just like the primaries showed.  Next time around the pollsters will be forced to think about cell phone only households and increased turnout of black voters when a black candidate is involved.  

Obama out performed the polls in the primaries in Georgia by 17 points.  Did the pollsters learn anything?  Judging by Rasmussens 27% number for black vote and no polling of cell phones, it doesn't look like it.  Obama wins Georgia and all of the tossups.  Throw in ND or MT,  Pick one, it doesn't matter.

One word of caution, it could be worse for McCain.

by Rusty266 2008-11-04 12:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Koehn by 2% to be the first Dem elected in 42 years in WI-89

by Noonan 2008-11-04 01:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread
O354-M184 EVs
O53.1-M45.3
House: D264-R171
Senate: D59-R41
by Todd Beeton 2008-11-04 02:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

Also posted in Jonathan's prediction thread last night:

President:

Obama 379 (53%)
McCain 159 (45%)

President Obama wins: CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, IL, IN, MA, MD, ME, MI, MN, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WI
McCain wins: AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY

The closest states are IN (Obama), GA (Obama), NC (Obama), MO (McCain), and MT (McCain).

Senate:

Dems +9

Dem Pickups: VA, NM, CO, NH, NC, AK, OR, MN, GA
GOP Pickups: Nada (in fact, no race for a Dem seat is within 15 points)

Closest race - GA (won in runoff in December).
Say hello to Senator Al Franken

House:

Dems +29

Dem Pickups
AK-AL, AZ-01, CA-04, CO-04, CT-04, FL-08, FL-24, IL-10, IL-11, IN-03, LA-04, MD-01, MI-07, MI-09, MN-06, NC-08, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-09, NM-01, NM-02, NV-02, NV-03, NY-13, NY-26, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, OH-16, PA-03, VA-05, VA-11, WA-08

GOP Pickups
FL-16, TX-22, PA-11, PA-12

CA Prop8 = FAIL

All in all, not quite as thorough of an annihilation of the GOP as I'd like, but not bad.

by NJIndependent 2008-11-04 04:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

President
Obama 367
McCain 171

Obama 51.8% McCain 46.3 Others 1.9%

Senate dems +7 58-42

House Dems +28 263-172

by The Professor 2008-11-04 05:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Election Prediction Thread

EV
Obama 433
McCain 105

PV
57%
42
Other 1%

Sen 11 seats gain
House  32 gain

Total turnout 147 million
Obama 83.79 million
McCain 61.74 million
others 1.47 million

The Senate additions would require the full tsumi effect and coatails, otherwise 8

by bamjack 2008-11-04 09:27AM | 0 recs

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