Chuck Schumer Asks For One Final Push To 60

This is interesting. Just got a fundraising ask from Chuck Schumer asking for help delivering a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Included in the e-mail are some public polls of the 9 most competitive Senate races (Virginia and New Mexico excluded.) Below are the 7 most competitive of those:


Mark Begich 58
Ted Stevens 36


Jim Martin 46
Saxby Chambliss 47


Bruce Lunsford 48
Mitch McConnell 48


Al Franken 42
Norm  Coleman 38


Ronnie Musgrove 46
Roger Wicker 47

North Carolina

Kay Hagan 53
Elizabeth Dole 44


Jeff Merkley 51
Gordon Smith 43

While the chosen polls no doubt pick the best of the bunch for Democrats, they tell most of the public polling story:

  • post-indictment, Begich rises to double digit lead over Stevens
  • Merkley and Hagan running away with it in the end
  • Martin in a dead heat with Chambliss
  • Franken up within a few points over Coleman

Which brings us to those Mississippi and Kentucky numbers, which, while certainly bullish, are actually not that far outside of the trend estimates (Musgrove performs +4 better than Pollster and Lunsford performs +3.1.)

Personally, I'm predicting we'll win 8 seats by tomorrow night with Georgia set for a run-off to determine that 60th seat, but  the picture Schumer is painting here is one in which 60 true Democratic votes, i.e. without Lieberman, is a distinct possibility. And as unlikely as it seems now, I keep thinking back to 2006 and how unlikely it was that we'd get that 6th seat.

You guys really rocked our Road to 60 ActBlue page and I can't tell you how much we appreciate it. A total of 317 supporters gave $26,312 to our Road to 60 Senate candidates. Now, if you'd like to continue to help our Senate candidates reach that road to 60, I'd recommend donating directly to the DSCC. From Schumer's e-mail:

I assure you that every dollar you send to the DSCC before 9:00 PM tonight - even as little as $5 - will be rushed out immediately to campaigns in the closest races with the greatest need.  They'll use your money to make certain that every Democratic vote is counted.  Any amount can make a real difference.

Give right now and a group of Democratic senators will triple your contribution, meaning your $5 goes three times as far bringing voters to the polls. That's the only thing that matters.

Donate HERE.

[editor's note, by Todd Beeton]I mistakenly referred to these polls as "internal DSCC polls." They are not. I've revised the post accordingly.

Tags: Chuck Schumer, DSCC, road to sixty (all tags)




I certainly HOPE that the internal polls look like this.

by Scan 2008-11-03 06:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Chuck Schumer

I agree it will like be 8 seats if Franken can pull out a close win.  I think a big BO get out the vote might just be enough in Minny.

But MS, GA, and KY seems like a long shot and it is also not right to suggest that will get us to 60.  Leiberman has to be out and if he is the 60th vote he will make life misserable for us.

He will assume he as some special political power as some kind of wise man.  Reid's first task in the new senate must be to take away Leiberman's DHS chair and kick him out of the caucus.


by giusd 2008-11-03 07:01AM | 0 recs
Well not quite "True Democratic"

Technically we call Sanders Socialist.

by Jeff Wegerson 2008-11-03 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Chuck Schumer Asks For One Final Push To 60

I don't know where Schumer gets his Musgrove, and Martin numbers. Georgia MIGHT go to a runnoff, but that doesn't bode well for Jim Martin....

and that Franken race has had so many fluctuations it's beyond the power of any poll. The fact that it's THIS close suggests 2 things: Barkley is definitely having an effect, and we should have nominated a better candidate (?) I truly hope I'm wrong on this, and that Franken wins, but MN can be a strange strange place.... Michele Bachmann did get elected from there, let's not forget that.

by mrburns17 2008-11-03 07:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Chuck Schumer Asks For One Final Push To 60
  1. Franken has been ahead in almost every poll.
  2. Franken was the best candidate in the race.
  3. Barky is taking more votes from Coleman.
by lojasmo 2008-11-03 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Chuck Schumer Asks For One Final Push To 60

AL Franken just tricked me into giving a hundred bucks by sending me a picture of a puppy.  Nevertheless, I am going to contribute five bucks to every person on that list.

by lojasmo 2008-11-03 11:02AM | 0 recs
Changed my mind.

$25 each to Martin, Musgrove, and Begich through actblue.  They're the tight ones (aside from Al.)

by lojasmo 2008-11-03 11:08AM | 0 recs


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