PA & MD polling

There are two things making us sweat: Pennsylvania & Mason-Dixon polling.  The PA polling can be attributed to tightening, Morning Call's poll is a good example of this at work:

Morning Call	

10/28 - 11/01	615 LV	4.0	52	45	Obama +7
10/19 - 10/23	608 LV	4.0	52	40	Obama +12
10/16 - 10/20	600 LV	4.0	53	41	Obama +12
10/10 - 10/14	584 LV	4.0	52	38	Obama +14
09/26 - 09/30	598 LV	4.0	48	41	Obama +7
09/21 - 09/25	577 LV	4.5	47	43	Obama +4

Obama's current average at RCP is 51.2, and at Pollster.com, using the 'high sensitive' model, it's 50.9:

I wouldn't be surprised to see the undecideds continue to break to McCain, and for the final margin to be close to what Mason-Dixon last polled, at 4 percent.

Mason-Dixon might be polling off of a very wrong model, but we do know that they were the best pollster in 2004, being off by an average of 1.8% cumulatively, and missing only one state 13 out of 14 (iirc). Here's their polling as of late:

I'll have another post on this later, but I think it comes down to 5 states that are going to be the closest and decide the election: OH, PA, VA, NC, & FL. McCain would need to win all five, while Obama is at 257 EV's and just needs to win in one of those 5 states. MD currently shows Obama taking PA & VA, while McCain takes OH & NC. FL goes both ways. Even giving it to McCain, still a 291-247 two-state win by Obama. Good enough for me.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)

Comments

69 Comments

Re: PA & MD polling
Thanks Jerome for doing such a nice work.
By the way you forgot to include the new Florida M/D Survey showing Obama up 49-47.
by Obamafan 2008-11-02 05:38AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Thanks, I missed a day. I went ahead and updated it to include that poll too, looks even better.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-02 05:45AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling
Jerome, You should include the new Electoral College Projections from CNN & MSNBC in your later Post.
Basically The State of the Race.
by Obamafan 2008-11-02 05:50AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

The tightening in PA comes from his own voters coming back to him.  And he still can't seem to top 45 or 46 percent.  Obama's numbers have held steady in 50s.  I don't know what the worry is about.

As for Mason-Dixon, they did so well in 2004 they apparently are using the likely voter model from 2004 for 2008.  I'd like to see what the numbers are for registered voters before they lop off a significant number of Obama voters for being "unlikely to vote."

Nevertheless, what's important is look at the trends within the polling, and Mason-Dixon is showing Obama increasing his lead in every one of their polls.

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 05:53AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I should say that most of MD's polls are trending for Obama, not all.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 05:55AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

NOt in North Carolina and Ohio.

by esconded 2008-11-02 05:56AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

That Ohio number is flat out wrong.  See my post below.  This is the same Ohio that McCain had to ship 4000 high schoolers to his rally in order to fill out the sparse crowd.  This is the same Ohio where McCain's big Columbus rally with Ah-nold drew a "girly-man" crowd, half the size of the rally that Bush held in 2004.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 06:02AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

That Coumbus rally is an important sign...  Apparently, in 2004, Rove was able to squeeze out every possible republican vote in the I-71 corridor North of Columbus... They won't be able to do that this time!

by LordMike 2008-11-02 08:14AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Mason-Dixon does have a slight GOP lean.  The one danger right now for Obama is losing the Electoral College while winning the popular vote.

So many undecideds in their PA and VA polls--if most of the undecideds break to McCain. doesn't he win them both?

by esconded 2008-11-02 05:55AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

According to Nate Silver's 538, Obama winning the popular vote and losing the Electoral College is
unlikely. And the reverse is just as (un)likely.

Obama wins EC 96,2
Obama wins EC without PV : 1,1%

McCain wins EC
McCain wins EC without PV : 1,2%

by french imp 2008-11-02 06:08AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Jerome, I don't think that the 'more sensitive' setting offered by Pollster makes any sense for at state level because there aren't enough polls.
(Even at national level it doesn't make much sense, as the curve jerks up and down constantly.)

The output here is a curve which goes backward: clearly a meaningless artefact. The average sensitivity (default setting) makes much more sense, and does show a slight narrowing - not at all of the same kind as the one suggested on the graph you gave.

by french imp 2008-11-02 05:56AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

That's a good point, but it looks like there are about 15 polls over the last week, and another 6 and 5 in the weeks previous. Its probably just enough to make the case that it works.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-02 06:01AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

What's up with that backwards curve?  How does that happen?

by sneakers563 2008-11-02 06:23AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

McCain has gone on tachyon mode.

by french imp 2008-11-02 06:36AM | 0 recs
Those Ohio numbers just make no sense.

I live in Ohio and early voting is way up from 2004, and it's overwhelmingly democratic.  I stood in line for 2 hours to vote early this weekend, in a line full of "sporadic" voters.  There is no way that Obama is only at 45% in Ohio.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 05:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Those Ohio numbers just make no sense.

You are the one. I couldn't stand in line that long... luckily I won't have too.

MD is going at the margins, not the final numbers.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-02 06:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Those Ohio numbers just make no sense.

The wait wasn't too bad.  Music was playing and politicians were glad-handing people in line.  And, virtually everyone in line were African Americans.  AA turn-out will be very high in Cuyahoga County, much higher than in 2004.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 06:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Those Ohio numbers just make no sense.

Not to rain on your parade, but I remember the same thing during the primary (long lines, lots of smiling AA voters), and we still lost big... The ice storm that primary night certainly didn't help, though....

It's still a good sign, but lets not get overconfident!

by LordMike 2008-11-02 08:16AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling
New Survey USA Pennsylvania Poll
Obama 51 %
McCain 44 %
Link:http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=8da4a686-5e24-4c6a-8fd5-8c9ba9 79eff0
by Obamafan 2008-11-02 06:00AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Seems about right, and at bet for McCain, he gets the undecideds 4:1 to make it a 52-48 margin.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-02 06:03AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

That's if the undecideds come out to vote at all.  I heard some talking head say on t.v. that if a voter is still undecided at this point, they are not that enthused about either candidate, and there's a good chance they might just stay home.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 06:06AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

They are getting pummeled with negative Obama stuff I hear... That kind of negativity will certianly reduce turnout amongst undecideds!

by LordMike 2008-11-02 08:17AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I'm not sure that Mason-Dixon's supposed accuracy in 2004 means anything in 2008, and I suspect that we'll have a new "most accurate" pollster this time around.  I much prefer looking at the aggregate of polls than following any one particular pollster.

by rfahey22 2008-11-02 06:02AM | 0 recs
Except for Zogby. Because Zogby is God.

Matt Drudge says so.

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 06:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Except for Zogby. Because Zogby is God.

good enough for me!

by gil44 2008-11-02 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

We'll see, whom would you guess it will be?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-02 06:04AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I know it won't be Mason-Dixon.  Virtually all other pollsters have Obama up above 50%, yet, when voters are mostly decided at this point, in their latest polls, you actually see MORE undecideds in some of their polls compared to earlier polls.  Do they not push undecideds?  What's going on?  It's ridiculous to see all those state polls a few days before election day, when in many states like North Carolina millions have ALREADY voted, and yet, their polls still have a high number of undecideds.  That just doesn't make much sense.

by ProfessorReo 2008-11-02 06:09AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I think they find a way to reverse-lean... push away leaners... They are also pushing the bradley effect strong, saying that most undecideds will go for McCain, 'cos the undecideds are mostly white and rural...

I hope they are wrong!

by LordMike 2008-11-02 08:20AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I'm not sure.  It would be interesting to see whether there is a regional bias at work, as I think some people suspect with SUSA, PPP, etc.  It may be that each of the polls is stronger in different areas, and then there is the problem of firms that poll states nationwide and those that only poll a single state or a handful of them.  Maybe in 2012 we can aggregate all of the data into some sort of platonic ideal poll that takes the best poll in each state and projects the result.  

by rfahey22 2008-11-02 06:14AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Do you happen to have any data showing who was the best for 2000 ... and how they compared according to their 2004 data?

by Cleveland John 2008-11-02 06:28AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I'm going with SUSA.

by Mullibok 2008-11-02 11:19AM | 0 recs
Can't look to 2004, unless groups have it the same

Unless the polling this year across the various polling groups is identical (which it is not), we can't look at the numbers from four years ago.  It's obvious that some pollsters are basing their results on 2004 data, not 2008 data.

M-D has kept it close all this cycle.  They were accurate on several states in 2004.  Yet look at a pollster such as SurveyUSA.  They too were accurate in several of the same states, but they are showing better results for Obama this time around.

M-D is not pushing the leaners and is not using the current data.

Regardless, all I want is a win, and the easiest way to get to 270 is Kerry states + Iowa + Colorado + New Mexico or Nevada.

Anything after that--and I still feel Obama will win with 350+ electoral votes--is just icing on the cake.

by RussTC3 2008-11-02 06:11AM | 0 recs
PA and the House races

One difficulty the Democrats are having in the state is they're undrperfroming downballot.  Pennsylvania could be one of just a few states the Dems lose House seats.

by esconded 2008-11-02 06:13AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

McCain doesn't break 200.

by lockewasright 2008-11-02 06:26AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

M-D in 2004 got EVERY state winner correct and was off on the margin of victory by as many as 4 points in only one poll.  Applying that standard and forgetting that they are 4 points more pro-McCain than everyone else, Obama still has NV, CO, and PA in the bag and is likely to win VA and FL as well.  That's more than enough.

by NJIndependent 2008-11-02 06:27AM | 0 recs
wrong five

The five to watch are:

NV: the No. 1 back-up plan for a freak loss in PA:

Kerry- PA +IA +NM +CO +VA +NV; we are killing them on the ground in NV, maybe only exceeded by the gap in NC and IN.  GOTV will win Nevada for us.

PA: they could have squeezed a last trip to PA in the schedule and they have not - as of now.

VA: go to Manassas on Monday night and do a live blog, be part of history.

CO: the early vote gap in CO is small.  I'm watching for the Jesus people from Colorado Springs going up to the big south Denver suburbs- Aurora, Highlands Ranch, for big time last minute GOTV.  We have to win CO.  

OH: back-up plan No. 2 for a freak PA loss.  Three stops for the campaign today in Ohio, plus HRC.  We got burned in OH in the primary, thought it would be closer.  M-D Ohio poll made me wet myself.

FL is too close, large and complicated to figure out.  NC is icing on the cake.

by mboehm 2008-11-02 06:43AM | 0 recs
Re: wrong five

Where's it at in Manassas?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-11-02 07:09AM | 0 recs
Re: wrong five

Prince William County Fairgrounds
10624 Dumfries Road
Manassas, VA 20112

Monday, November 3rd
Doors Open: 5:00 p.m.
Program Begins: 9:00 p.m.

by mboehm 2008-11-02 07:22AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling
I don't like MD's Ohio poll (11-2-08) which shows McCain +2. Somebody convince me that is hooey.
Last I saw it was Obama +10 with some other pollster.
by veggiemuffin 2008-11-02 06:58AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

You should always compare polls to other polls conducted by the same firm, because each company has a different methodology and they are not directly comparable.  Mason-Dixon's new poll is virtually unchanged from its most recent prior poll (showing McCain +1).  However, that's not going to answer your question, because it all comes down to which pollster has a more accurate view of the Ohio electorate - either Mason-Dixon does (suggesting a narrow McCain victory), or some other company showing a large Obama lead does.  Or, the truth lies somewhere in-between (suggesting a narrow Obama victory).

by rfahey22 2008-11-02 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Here's the talkdown.  The University of Cincinnati/Ohio Newspapers poll has had the absolute MOST McCain bias of any pollster, and Nate thinks they are the best at polling Ohio.  A month ago, they gave McCain at least 4 points more than any other pollster, including Mason Dixon and Rasmussen.  Last week, they gave Obama a 3 point edge, 49-46... I nearly shit my pants reading that...  Rasmussen gave us a lead last week, the first for them ever.  We'll see what Ras says tomorrow, but Ohio is looking better for us than in 2004.

It will still be a fight, though!  But, here's our edge:  Brunner, our SoS, is going to give us at least a point extra 'cos she's cleaned up a lot of the shenanigans.  We have a registration and excitement edge.  In 2004, Rove squeezed every Republican vote he could out of Ohio.  There is a nice analysis of that at cleveland.com.  They won't able to squeeze anymore juice out of the state this year.  We have registered at least a half a million new democratic voters.  We don't have to worry about appalachian Ohio, 'cos those voters there didn't vote for Kerry either, and Governor Strickland's efforts whold at least keep support at that level.  The only regions where we have to worry are democratic strongholds around youngstown, akron, and canton.  The republicans, on the other hand, are bleeding support in hard hit western Ohio.  Even in super republican cincinnati, they are worried about the excess of black vote there.

We aren't going to win by 10, and we could certainly lose, but I think that a 0.1 to 4 point win is possible and more likely now than in 2004.  I think we have a 60% chance at a win on Tuesday.

by LordMike 2008-11-02 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I've long believed the undecideds would break heavily for McSame because of their demographic make-up - mostly white with lots of "Reagan" Democrats. They are undecided because they don't like McSame, but they'll never vote for Obama.

I believe most will come out to vote for McCain and the rest will stay home or not cast a vote for Prez. It's going to get a lot closer.

by Spiffarino 2008-11-02 07:10AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

On PBS' Now last week they interviewed a woman who was still upset that Obama hadn't defended Hillary against media sexism. She couldn't stand McCain but also was angry at Obama. Then they showed a few women in a group she attends and they all felt similar to her and didn't think Palin was all that bad. Some thought she was just fine. I was so appalled. Why no one asked they why Hillary didn't speak up about racism against Obama is beyond me. I'd have liked to hear their answer.  It seemed clear that logic and reason had no part in their decision making. After that I don't feel at all clear about how undecideds will go. These people baffle me.

by veggiemuffin 2008-11-02 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Beyond what you said, why can't they take Hillary's endorsement of Barack Obama - and the amazing amount of hard work she's done on his behalf - at face value? Do they have so little trust in her?

I personally believe this whole PUMA business is a ruse. They were Republicans who liked Hillary and now they're going back where they came from. Screw 'em. We'll win anyway, Hillary will make it happen, and the irony will still be lost on them.

by Spiffarino 2008-11-02 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

That is the McCain hope, and the hope of Republicans as a whole.  There's been some polling evidence against that idea, though...  although both campaigns have told Chuck Todd that that they expect 70% of undecideds to go for McCain.

by LordMike 2008-11-02 08:34AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I also think that a lot of undecides will break McCain just like they broke for Gore in 2000.  However, there is just no way that BO loses PA.  I cant remember the last time the dems lost PA but it must have been reagan???

But really my eyes are on VA.  VA is going blue faster than anyone could have guesses and northern VA is really blue.  My understanding is VA closes the polls at 7 pm EST in imho by 8:30 they will call it for BO and that will be that.  No way can McCain win the election without VA.

david

by giusd 2008-11-02 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

They close the polls at 6pm. actually... and their voting is all electronic (yikes!), so the results will come in like lightning.

by LordMike 2008-11-02 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

thanks for the catch.  6 pm est.  IMHO i think this is over and i will be watching the senates races more than the presidential race.

It should be interesting to see what the networks do to hide the fact that they all know the exit polls and after VA and PA are called they will act like McCain still has a chance.  I remember in 1992 how the right complained about how voters stayed home when the GE was called and how many seats it cost the GOP in congress.

In fact i will have Rush on the radio wed to hear is big ass whine.

david

by giusd 2008-11-02 09:48AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

I guess they should keep quiet since people out west will still be voting.  Although there is no way to prevent it from being obvious who is the winner if PA goes for Obama. At that point everyone knows there is no way for McCain to win.

by veggiemuffin 2008-11-02 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Yes, it appears tighter today in most of the swing states.  I'm concerned about PA due to the composition of rural PA Democrats.  Will they vote in force for Obama?  Meanwhile, the MD polls show worst case scenario in all listed states.  It still looks pretty good, but I guess I'll have to wait 2 and a half days to celebrate.

by flatblade 2008-11-02 07:26AM | 0 recs
Well, don't be overly concerned

The proportion of the state's population that lives between the Susquehanna river and metro Pittsburgh is relatively small and reliably Republican for many years. Despite the fact that the substantial majority of the land area of the state is Republican, the state has consistently voted about 4 points more Democratic than the nation for decades.

SE PA is now rather strongly Democratic and that is where the largest portion of people live.  NW PA may throw out its GOP congressman and a slight Obama victory may come in that region.  Pittsburgh metro will still go Democratic and despite some doubts about the historically Democratic Scranton/Wilkes Barre area, I say Obama gets a small victory there, too.

by lombard 2008-11-02 09:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Well, don't be overly concerned

I'm sure Gov. Rendell has helped point the BO campaign to the areas to emphasize and I know BO has the best GOTV operation so I feel pretty confident, but will worry till it's a done deal.

by veggiemuffin 2008-11-02 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Most of these state polls have been lagging indicators throughout this election season, taking a few days to catch up to the national trends. Obama's mini surge post infomercial should give him what he needs in all of these states.

by Graham1979 2008-11-02 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Nate covered this over at 538, but there isn't any great evidence of a "lag" effect in the state polls, and it also doesn't make a lot of sense logically, since the state polls in the battlegrounds are in the field at the same time as the national polls of a given date.  Dips and upturns in the national polls could be accounted for by variance in states that are not polled as frequently.

by rfahey22 2008-11-02 08:29AM | 0 recs
In the case of the Mason-Dixon polls there is

These polls were conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week - 10/28-10/29.

by Ben P 2008-11-02 09:17AM | 0 recs
Obama's lead in NC may be insurmountable

2.6 million votes so far.  41% of registered voters.  75% of the total vote from 2004.

51% turnout already amoungst blacks, 26% of the total.  Whites comprise only 69% of the electorate so far.  

Dem/Rep/Un breakdown is 52/30/18.

Based on reports of polling of early voters, Obama is leading early by at least 8 pts (conservatively, PPP had it at 25 pts earlier in the week).  If we assume that turnout Nov4 is massive (2 million more votes), McCain needs to win the election day vote by more than 11%.  I'm struggling to keep my optimism cautious.

by jimotto 2008-11-02 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's lead in NC may be insurmountable

Georgia also has a lot of votes in the bank.  Almost 2 million have been cast which is over 60% of all 2004 votes.  The Black percentage is still at 35% and it was only about 25% in 2004.

While I am not going to argue that Obama is going to win Georgia, McCain needs to have a massive GOTV effort to make up all the lost ground.  The GOP here in Georgia is very scared about the results of early voting.

Obama has a good GOTV effort.  I have been contactd by phone and also in person just to make sure we get to the polls (if we had not already).   The volunteers who came to the door even had nice little maps with directions on how to get to the voting place for those who had not yet voted.

by gavoter 2008-11-02 08:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's lead in NC may be insurmountable

using the internals from Ras's NC poll showing Obama +2 (in line with the average) I came out with an Obama lead of something like 10-15% among early voters, or around 200-350,000.

Not insurmountable for McCain, but tough.

Georgia will be harder for Obama because most polls indicate he will get a significantly lower proportion of the white vote than in NC, but it's certainly not impossible.

by al1 2008-11-02 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Eeking out a win is not good enough for me. I can not see how Obama can fall below 349 EV's .... these goofy last few days polling are just that. Goofy and statistical noise. PA stays with Obama as does OH and FL and VA and NV and MO, read em and weep conservative movement that will last until the rapture!!! One of the remaining suspense items will be to see how long the corporate media can drag out the night. Another would be the huge turnout favoring Obama in GA, MS, AZ.

by wjbill 2008-11-02 08:55AM | 0 recs
PA stays with Obama

I'm not sure I would say the same thing about ALL THREE of OH, FL, and MO.  Even so, he may not need any of them and surely doesn't need more than one of them.

by lombard 2008-11-02 09:27AM | 0 recs
Does MD list internals?

I don't trust pollsters that don't list internals. Show the assumptions and why result come out the way they do.

by elrod 2008-11-02 09:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Does MD list internals?

New SUSA Poll Obama +7 in PA

by BDM 2008-11-02 09:17AM | 0 recs
No reason to sweat

Yes, the polls are tighter but there are also fewer undecideds now (at least in the national polls).  Stands to reason that more undecideds would drift to McCain.  Most of them were probably unhappy Republicans and right leaning independents anyway who, in the end, would have to have an extremely compelling and irresistible reason to vote Democratic.  

The RCP average of national polls shows about a 6.5% Obama national lead with around 95% of the vote going to the top two candidates.  If 2% vote for other candidates and McCain gets 2 or the 3% of remaining undecideds, Obama still wins by 5 or 5.5%.

by lombard 2008-11-02 09:23AM | 0 recs
A pundit's take on M-D

Other day when Mason-Dixon posted a pol with Norm Coleman leading Al Franken, I had an email exchange with Jennifer Duffy because, at the very same time, she predicted Democrats picking up 8-10 seats. Her response to was that "M-D appears to rely on a more normal turn out, which we know won't be the case, so these numbers are a little optimistic for Republicans generally."

Not trying to debunk the polls numbers, but she may know things we don't.

by RandyMI 2008-11-02 09:47AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

Thankfully only one day left till we find out. I couldn't take another week of this.

by Graham1979 2008-11-02 09:48AM | 0 recs
surveyusa poll

has black turnout at 10 percent and 80% for Obama

2004 had black turnout at 13 percent and 84% for Kerry.

If a pollster puts out the information, you can judge the credibility of a particular sample.

obviously, I think blacks will be more than 13 percent of Pa, and be higher than 80% for Obama

by yellowdem1129 2008-11-02 10:42AM | 0 recs
Obama +6 in PA in new Ras poll

they had one out yesterday but now there's another today - perhaps they were hoping the story was going to get even juicier.

Today's poll shows a slight tick up for Obama not just in his polling number, but also favorability. After several days of falling numbers in PA I'll take any uptick for a bit of reassurance.

Details here:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/pennsylvania/election_ 2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

by al1 2008-11-02 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama +6 in PA in new Ras poll

The trend right now is all Obama. These state polls are all just catching up. McCain isn't going to win Ohio and Florida if Obama is polling +8 or +9 in Gallup nationally IMO.

by Graham1979 2008-11-02 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: PA & MD polling

POV Firewall:

Assuming Obama takes the interior west states of Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado, all he needs is to take one of these states:

Pennsylvania--No early voting, an aging rural Democratic base outside of the major cities.  Not Obama's base constituency, but PA has gone Blue in every close election.  Reality says that BO leads by 3-7% with fifty hours to go.  He should hold on, but I wish he would visit the state in the next two days.

Ohio--Probably the best Republican organization in a swing state, decided the '04 election for Bush, again it is a state where, outside of the major cities, Obama really has to work hard to get votes.  Ohio was bright blue in '06 and having a Dem gov. and SOS helps.  Polls are close with Obama having the edge.  It should be close on Tuesday.

Virginia--These coastal states are becoming more like Maryland and less like Alabama every year.  Virginia will soon have two Democratic Senators, and a Democratic governor.  Obama has led since August here and I think he wins a close election here.

Anyway, win one of the three and anxiously wait for the blue states to the west to come in.  Win two and relax or win three and start to get greedy, hoping for a landslide and big numbers downticket.

Lose them all=President Grandpa.

by flatblade 2008-11-02 12:24PM | 0 recs

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