Tracking Poll Update: Obama Stretches Lead

Here are today's numbers:

Gallup (Trad)5242
Gallup (Exp)5242
Rasmussen Reports5146
Research 2000/dKos5144

Barack Obama's lead over John McCain in Gallup's traditional turnout model is his largest since the survey has been published, and it matches his largest spread in the expanded turnout model as well. Yesterday's Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll also found Obama expanding on his lead, pushing it to 53 percent to 44 percent over McCain -- or largely in line with both the composite of the polling above, as well as the trend.

But what it all comes down to is this: McCain needs this race to tighten if he wants a shot at winning the presidency, but not only is there no evidence of tightening in the race -- he is still having difficulty crossing the 45 percent threshold in national polling -- there is in fact evidence that the race is one again diverging, with Obama's lead growing.

We are 3 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)



Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Stretches Lead
Wonderful news.
There is only 2 days left for McCain to try and close the gap and it is not happening.  I really want Obama to get at least 54% of the vote so that his margin is as big as Bush 41 had in 1988.
by gavoter 2008-11-01 09:25AM | 0 recs
Times Up

McCain's last chance to dictate the news cycle was yesterday. Either the polls are right or wrong. If they are right, which we think they are beyond a reasonable doubt, then he's long since run out of time to close that gap. (Election Day) polls open in less than 66 hours.

by iohs2008 2008-11-01 09:32AM | 0 recs
No, this can't be right....

Esconded TOLD me to be worried....

Handsomegent predicates a Crushing McCain win, when 50 Million PUMAs descend on the polls...

Fransis/Stat man/SocketPuppet DeJour are clear, PA is soldily McCain, states are flipping even as we speak...


How was that, enough panic for a typical Democrat?

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 09:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Stretches Lead

Until I saw that Gallup number, I really was wondering if we were maybe losing... PA has tightened up quite a bit, Zogby had that weird result last night, and McCain has been on fire rallying the intellectually challenged...

But, what is very important in that Gallup finding is that both the traditional model and expanded model are now equal.  That means that the expected increase in voter turnout for Obama is already happening and should continue to push things forward...

That alone should keep us motivated to keep on moving!

by LordMike 2008-11-01 09:43AM | 0 recs
momentum momemtum

It is the bandwagon effect, now the fence sitters want to vote for the winner.  

Bill and Barack alphaing together didn't hurt.  

This is soooo much fun.  

by anna shane 2008-11-01 09:50AM | 0 recs
or the contrarian effect

Undecideds tend to break for the candidate behind...

Because, that is a bet hedge?

Still I think the numbers we DON'T have from polling, new voters, kids, should do it..

God, I am glad I am going to be somewhere where I can't get saturated by the media.

Monday is going to be hell to watch IMO.

by WashStateBlue 2008-11-01 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: or the contrarian effect

Not really in this case.  McCain is the quasi-incumbent, the heir to the Bush spot.  Typically, in the waning days undecideds make up their mind whether they want to continue on the current track or make a change.    

Hotline's tracking poll this morning showed a +3% for Obama and a +3% for McCain, which means they started pushing undecideds in these final days.  Looks like it is going about even to both candidates.  

by devilrays 2008-11-01 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: or the contrarian effect

I know you want to keep worrying, but, the pug base isn't motivated to vote.  They don't like McCain, the 30 percent of Bush supporters will vote for Sarah, hoping John won't last a full term, but many of those undecideds won't vote at all.  

People tend to want to back winners, it's an identification thing, so anyone who is holding back but isn't in Bush's 30 percent and who votes will probably vote for Barack, although I'm sure that John will get some of the sympathy vote.  if pugs have sympathy.  

by anna shane 2008-11-01 11:31AM | 0 recs
Re: momentum momemtum

Great Post Anna.  Your so... right.

by nzubechukwu 2008-11-01 01:09PM | 0 recs
GOTV video

Pass it on: -M

Tune in, turn on, turn out.


by McCainBush08 2008-11-01 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: GOTV video

nice video, nice song, thanks.

by anna shane 2008-11-01 11:34AM | 0 recs
We need to Get the Younger Voters to Vote

We need those youthful ones to vote for the polls to become reality.  Take a youth to vote movement needs to be apart of the Obama GOTV effort.   However, I am  happy the polls are trending toward Senator Obama and Biden.  Go Team...

by markieparkie 2008-11-01 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: We need to Get the Younger Voters to Vote

Most of this has already happened.   Early voting states are mostly in the bank.   Georgia wont have the Friday numbers up until Monday, but through Thursday over 30% of all registered voters had done their job (53% of all 2004 voters).  

Lines on Friday were up to 10 hours long.

I am really not sure how much more we can do down here to get out the vote.

by gavoter 2008-11-01 10:42AM | 0 recs
Chill out on PA.!

So says Tom Jensen, pollster for PPP. They will release a poll later today showing  a solid lead for Obama. (presumably without the flaky internals that Ras had, -80% AAs for Obama?? Give me a break) 2008/11/chill-out.html

by cmpnwtr 2008-11-01 11:35AM | 0 recs


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