Tears of joy in West Virginia
by Carnacki, Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 07:42:48 PM EDT
People were shocked by ARG's poll showing Barack Obama up by 8 points here in West Virginia.
I'll admit, I was too. I spoke to people in the West Virginia Democratic Party, who looked at the polls internals on the demographics: age, party breakdown, etc. They thought the demographics looked accurate except for this:
The poll listed 55 percent Democrats. The actual number in the state is 58 percent. Democrats are actually slightly underrepresented in the polling.
Here's what my gut tells me. The poll numbers have definitely been trending Barack Obama's way here. Pollster had shown a 4 point McCain lead.
So is ARG being "quirky"? Possibly. It's a good sample size of 600 people and since the previous polls were taken we've had a presidential debate, a vice presidential debate, the economy took a nose dive and a Republican government turned to Wall Street socialism.
I could talk about our ground game. We have nearly 30 paid people (all West Virginians unlike the primary) in seven offices, running a coordinated campaign for our WV-02 Democratic candidate and other office holders. We're telling people to vote a straight Democratic ticket. We've had volunteers phonebanking and canvassing and registering new voters daily.
Meanwhile John McCain has a state director. Often the volunteer office across the street in Martinsburg is empty - including on Saturdays. A busy day is when we see six people there.
And I could talk about how the West Virginia Democrats went "all in to win."
When pundits claimed Appalachia wouldn't vote for a black candidate based off primary results showing Sen. Hillary Clinton's huge popularity in the region, the people here in West Virginia new better. While political "pros" were telling Obama to write off the region, the West Virginia Democratic Party had other ideas.
Basically Gov. Joe Manchin and Sen. Jay Rockefeller - not two of the most popular people here - deserve a great deal of credit. They contributed their re-election dollars and staff to the coordinated campaign.
Instead of running away from a candidate that picked up just a quarter of the vote, they've thrown in their lot with him.
When people phonebank and canvass, they tell them to vote a straight Democratic ticket (in West Virginia we have straight party voting if you desire so you can just check one box and vote for the entire slate from Barack Obama for president to Kenny LeMaster for sheriff - a great guy by the way).
So I could go into details about those things, but I'd rather show some photos from today.
Rusty the Labor Dog, what do you think of the false smear attacks from John McCain and Sarah Palin on Barack Obama and Joe Biden?
Veterans for Obama in Charleston
Admiral Stone phonebanking.
Admiral Stone at the press conference. What a great looking group of veterans we've got.
U.S.Rep. Nick Rahall addresses a rally at the Huntington Campaign for Change HQ
Barack Obama on Huntington radio station WDGG to talk about his event over the Ohio River in Portsmouth. (Great, fun interview)
Fayette County Democrats greet John McCain's brother Joe "Say it Ain't So" McCain when he showed up to speak today at a Republican event.
You want to know why we're winning or at worst a toss up here?
* The Zombie Narrative about WV that I've tried to kill was wrong.
- The economy.
- Barack Obama.
- Some damn hard work by many great volunteers.