Red State Democrats Rising

As Barack Obama has risen in the polls nationally and in much of the state polling, we're seeing some pretty dramatic movement among downticket Democrats as well, particularly Senate candidates in red states.

GA-SEN Today kos alerts us to the remarkable fact that a new Research 2000 poll he commissioned confirms what Survey USA found last week: the Georgia Senate race between Democrat Jim Martin and Republican Saxby Chambliss is currently all tied up.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/29-10/1. Likely voters. MoE +/- 4%

Chambliss (R) 45
Martin (D) 44

Being that this is the third poll in a row to show this race within 3 points or less (within the MOE,) I agree with Kos, this is now a top tier race.

TX-SEN Another red state Democrat showing impressive gains is Road to 60 candidate Rick Noriega running against John "Big John" Cornyn of Texas. I've been waiting for this race to tighten and it looks as though it finally is (August numbers in parentheses.)

Rasmussen Reports, September 29, 500 LVs, 2008, MOE +/- 4.5%

Cornyn (R) 50 (48)
Noriega (D) 43 (37)

Rasmussen's pretty much the only pollster in polling this race, so I'd like to see other polls confirm this trend. I'd also like to see Cornyn drop, not rise, especially his favorability rating, which is currently at 57/30. His cheesy black and white ads can't really be helping him, can they? Whatever it is that's driving this race, it's apparent that at the very least Noriega is rising at a faster rate than Cornyn and it could just be a matter of whether Noriega has enough time to get his message out.

NE-SEN Last but not least, it's great to see some movement in Nebraska. The Scott Kleeb campaign has always said to be patient, as Scott works to get his name ID up, his numbers would rise. Interestingly, the place he's always done the worst simply because they don't know him is Omaha -- ya know, where the Democrats are. Now, we're finally seeing that movement.

Rasmussen Reports, September 30, 2008, 500 LVs MOE +/- 4.5%

Johanns 52 (56)
Kleeb 38 (31)

While 14 points is still a large hurdle to overcome, a 25 point lead dropped down to 14 points is a summer well-spent. And now the great news that Obama is actively competing for Nebraska's second congressional district can only help Scott. Expect this race to get tighter still as Omaha's voters learn they have a progressive Democrat to vote for down ballot as they vote for Obama at the top.

Among these three races we have what potentially could be our 61st, 62nd and 63rd seats in the Senate. Could it be that in shooting for 60 we were being conservative?

Tags: GA-Sen, Jim Martin, ne-sen, Rick Noriega, Scott Kleeb, TX-Sen (all tags)



Saxby Chambliss Needs Our Help...

...To get the early retirement he deserves.

Contribute to Jim Martin's campaign today!

by Andre Walker 2008-10-06 10:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Red State Democrats Rising

Let's put it this way... I'm in Austin, and I've seen that bullshit Cornyn ad about 50 times, but have yet to see a Noriega ad yet. If Noriega had any money, he would be cleaning up. If he does have money (which would include a chunk of mine), then it must be going to GOTV efforts in South Texas.

Man, I hate being, as the late Molly Ivins once put it, "Mississippi with good roads."

by norbizness 2008-10-06 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Red State Democrats Rising

You'll be seeing ads soon...

by KTinTX 2008-10-06 01:05PM | 0 recs
Don't get cocky

Some of the blue state races aren't locks; it's a dead heat in Minnesota, for example.

by Dracomicron 2008-10-06 11:59AM | 0 recs
by lojasmo 2008-10-06 12:37PM | 0 recs
Um, what?

That article wasn't about the senate race, which is what I'm talking about.

by Dracomicron 2008-10-06 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Um, what?

Same poll has Al up by nine points.

by lojasmo 2008-10-06 01:49PM | 0 recs
Ah, didn't see that

I was scanning for senate info, but I guess I missed it.

by Dracomicron 2008-10-06 01:54PM | 0 recs

Georgia has a history of races breaking wide open late.  I remember in 2002, Cleland was considered a safe bet for re-election until very, very late in the game, and was even a leaner or tossup on election day. His loss was a shocker.

Even more shocking was in 1992, when incumbent Democrat Wyche Fowler wasn't even on the map until election day when he failed to break 50% (even as Bill Clinton won the state), was forced into a runoff, and lost to Paul Coverdell.

Those were both examples of Democrats unexpectedly losing to Republicans. Let's hope this time the reverse can be true. Let's do something to MAKE it true.

by admiralnaismith 2008-10-06 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia

Wyche wasn't much of a shock.  The Democrats knew that he would barely make 50% if he did happen to get over it.    It was also pretty clear that he was going to have a tough time in the run off, which proved true.

Of course the Wyche lost was a bit of people cutting off their nose to spite their face.    A few weeks before the election, the Democrats panicked and refused to meet with a local gay rights organization.    The exit polling showed a huge number of ballots in midtown and other areas of Atlanta where there was a vote for President, but no vote for Senator.

The run off was also a bit of a snub of Bill Clinton.   A lot of Perot voters went out and voted for Fowler as a vote against Clinton 3 weeks later.

by gavoter 2008-10-06 01:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Red State Democrats Rising

I saw this up at Redstate
and just had to share it. JE

Whiny made up crap stories of roving bands of defribillater-kickin' sign defacers!!!

Pardon me while I gloat a bit more.

by QTG 2008-10-06 12:37PM | 0 recs
Democratic Headquarters

OK, I stopped by the Democratic headquarters today to pick up an Obama sign for my front yard and it seems they had a record setting day today.  It was the last day to register to vote for November and it was gangbusters for them, according to what the staff on hand told me.

Now that voter registration is closed, they are going to start the get out the vote effort big time.   Polls are already opened in Georgia and they are pushing early voting big time.  

It is going to be very interesting to see what this does because if enough people early vote it is going to make exit polls nearly useless.

by gavoter 2008-10-06 07:37PM | 0 recs


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