Tracking Poll Update: Obama Maintains His 8-Point Lead

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4841
Gallup5043
Rasmussen Reports5144
Research 2000/dKos5240
Average:50.2542.00

Today's four poll average comes out exactly the same as yesterday's, with Barack Obama holding an 8.25 percentage point lead nationwide against John McCain. With two-thirds of interviews coming after the Vice Presidential debate, we may be able to say that Sarah Palin's performance helped stop the bleeding for the Republicans, but it certainly does not appear to be the case that she was able to win any significant number of new voters over to McCain's side, let alone regain the momentum for the GOP ticket.

This may be the bottom of the dip for McCain, so do not be surprised to see some tightening in the coming four weeks (and certainly do not assume that such movement is necessarily an indication of anything other than natural tightening as voters tune in ahead of election day). That said, this isn't a bad place for Obama to be sitting 29 days away from November 4.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Re: Tracking Poll Update:

If what was said in weeks past has any truth to it, that Obama polls worse on weekends, then this is pretty good news... that polling worse actually means polling stagnates at a comfortable lead.

by notedgeways 2008-10-05 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Maintaings His 8-P

Hey!  I think you just found one of Sarah Palin's lost "g"s!  :-)

by LanceS 2008-10-05 09:35AM | 0 recs
McCain will assuredly close this lead

He's not going to get 42% in a national election, nor will Barack Obama get 54%. The news is that the support seems to be fairly solidified for Obama, and if the undecideds break 2:1 against him, it's still 5 points.

But this is not including any of the third party candidates (y'know, polls need to start doing that, don't they?). A great deal of those undecideds are third-party voters. Ones who hate Obama but won't vote GOP, ones that are severely pissed off at McCain for his vote on the bailout legislation who will now be voting for Barr.

Considering that, thanks to this bailout, I'd bet there will be substantially more Barr support (or even just GOP turnout) than I once did, I'd say that the number of votes that will actually break McCain's way might not even get him above 46%.

by vcalzone 2008-10-05 09:37AM | 0 recs
Third quarter

The polls show that Obama is ahead in the third quarter.  Not a bad place to be, but the fourth quarter is when games are won or lost.

It appears that Obama's lead and the complete failure of the Palin Gambit are going to push McCain to intensify the personal attacks.  If we can get the narrative to be "McCain is losing, getting desperate, launches a smear campaign," then the smear campaign will be less effective.

I could be wrong, but I think that Obama ought to call McCain out on his smears and lies in the next debate.  Ask him why he is so afraid to have a debate on issues and policies?  Again, I could be wrong.

by James Earl 2008-10-05 09:48AM | 0 recs
Re: He's not waiting for the debate

It's good that he is not waiting for the debate, but what I meant was a direct, in the face, question.  I would like to see and hear McCain's reaction.  

Of course, this might be one of those things we on the left want to see, but that is ultimately not productive.  

I fully expect Brokaw to do whatever it takes to revive the McCain campaign.

by James Earl 2008-10-05 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: He's not waiting for the debate

He'll have an advantage in the town hall debates in that he'll be able to move around. This could make for some spectacular confrontation, assuming he learned from Al Gore that you can't smile like The Joker when you do it.

by vcalzone 2008-10-05 10:42AM | 0 recs
Gallup said the race has been closer

these last two days but they don't indicate how much closer; my guess is that it was 50-45, 49-45 the last two nights in gallup but that Obama's overall lead is anywhere between 5-7 points.  Obama must have been polling 54-42, 53-41 in the two days prior to the debate according to gallup's analysis.

I'm sensing 52-46.5 or 51.5-46 right now if the election is held today.  As long as the lead is over three, there's no chance of electoral college shenanigans to get in the way.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-05 10:06AM | 0 recs
Research 2000/DKos as outliers...

Three of the four polls show Obama with a 7-pt. lead. Once again, Research 2000/DKos end up with a major disparity in relation to other polls.

Will Obama's ground game make Research 2000/DKos right and everyone else wrong? Perhaps. Maybe even "probably."

Will the sheer weight of the negative news between now and Election Day push Obama's win into landslide territory? If I had to bet on that, I'd say, "Yes."

But, in terms of where we're at today, when the three other polls show identical margins (albeit different overall nos.), this doesn't exactly give me a lot of faith in the objectivity of Research 2000's/DKos' poll results, at least in relation to everyone else.

by bobswern 2008-10-05 10:17AM | 0 recs
It's all because of the D/R

disparity; if our registration advantage really will lead to nine percent more dems voting on November 4th than pubs, then the research 2000 poll is probably close to accurate.

Rasmussen and Hotline use a +6 D/R disparity.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-05 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: It's all because of the D/R

I think it very well could, just not in battleground states. In heavily GOP states, McCain is coming away with a ton of the vote, but those voters, knowing Obama won't win there, might not vote if they're as upset about the state of the country as they have been..

by vcalzone 2008-10-05 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update:

If this good news holds up, we may not hear form some people until after Election Day.

by RandyMI 2008-10-05 11:39AM | 0 recs
indiana question

 when do polls close?  it says 6:00, but is that est,or cst?

by Doug Tuttle 2008-10-05 11:57AM | 0 recs
Re: indiana question

" when do polls close?  it says 6:00, but is that est,or cst?"

Yes ;)

(Most of IN is on Eastern but the western counties are Central)

by thezzyzx 2008-10-05 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama

So, did something happen today that I missed?  Obama's dropped 4 points on intrade (and McCain gained 4) for no apparent reason... Any guesses?  Did I miss something on the morning talk shows?

by LordMike 2008-10-05 01:00PM | 0 recs

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