McCain Would Lose Senate Reelection in Arizona

Check out the latest Research 2000 polling commissioned by Daily Kos of 600 likely Arizona voters in the field October 28 through October 30.

If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

McCain-Palin: 48 percent (42 percent of those already voting)
Obama-Biden: 47 percent (54 percent of those already voting)

If the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Janet Napolitano the Democrat and John McCain the Republican?

John McCain (R): 45 percent
Janet Napolitano (D): 53 percent

That's right -- John McCain is just about tied in his home state, and if his 2010 reelection bid were today and were he running against Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano he would lose.

Don't believe these numbers? The McCain campaign apparently does, because they have scheduled McCain to campaign in Arizona ahead of election day.

Sen. John McCain will be in Prescott on election eve, according to the Yavapai County Republican Party.

He plans to attend the party's annual Victory Rally at approximately 9 p.m. Monday on the historic courthouse plaza. The rally starts at 6 p.m. and typically attracts Republican elected officials from around the state.

With rumors that Barack Obama will touch down for a brief stop to stump in Arizona before election day and now hard news that the Obama campaign would be running this ad in Arizona (along with North Dakota and Georgia), we now have reason to believe that the race in the state may actually be edging towards "tossup" status (even as it likely still leans a bit towards the Republicans).

Tags: Arizona, AZ-Pres, AZ-Sen, John McCain, Senate 2010, White House 2008 (all tags)



As amusing a scenario as it would be...

...I believe you meant to type 'Janet Napolitano' rather than 'Barack Obama' on the second set of numbers : )

by JFMDC 2008-10-31 08:19AM | 0 recs
Re: As amusing a scenario as it would be...

Yes. Thank you. Got a little ahead of myself with the typing.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-10-31 08:23AM | 0 recs
Re: As amusing a scenario as it would be...

I believe J Nap has said she has no interest in the Senate.

Translation: she's preparing for a 2010 run

by reggie44pride 2008-10-31 08:49AM | 0 recs
Please let it be so.

We've had such stunning success the past couple cycles in recruitment.  McCain would probably do the mavericky thing and retire in the face of that.

by Skaje 2008-10-31 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Would Lose Senate Reelection in Arizona

McCain will win Arizona (unless there is a massive Obama landslide, which the tightening of the polls suggest won't come to pass) if only because he is a favorite son. That it is so close does signify that had the GOP nominee not been from Arizona, Obama would have taken Arizona more seriously and probably would have ranked with Indiana as a state that leans GOP only Barely in 2008. Althrough if McCain does win Arizona by mid single digits or less, or if he actually loses, then its likely that he won't run for reelection (nearly guaranteed if he happens to lose Arizona to Obama) because he will be seen as a very weak candidate.

by Jaxx Raxor 2008-10-31 08:25AM | 0 recs
Obama in AZ?

part of me loves this, but part of me thinks it feels like "stepping on the Cowboys' star" in Dallas.

We don't need AZ.  But winning it would be nice.

by activatedbybush 2008-10-31 08:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama in AZ?

No, but the media is either going to spin this as a horserace, or as a potential landslide.  With three days left, "the polls are tightening" is getting kind of old, and everyone's gotten used to the fact that we're competitive in North Carolina (there's a politco article with a screaming headline: "POLLS SHOW TIED RACE IN TWO KEY BATTLEGROUNDS" - the two are MO and NC, and they're only key in the sense that an Obama win in those states would probably spell a total wipeout).

Anyway, yeah, why not toss the press some chum?

by Jess81 2008-10-31 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama in AZ?

I think Arizona is the next North Carolina, a conservative state trending more liberal via immigration and changing demographics.   Virginia leap-frogged North Carolina by virtue of the population growth in NoVA.  I have to admit, I was a bit late in seeing that one coming.

by InigoMontoya 2008-10-31 11:11AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Would Lose Senate Reelection in Arizona

Wow !!!  LOL!!!

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-31 08:43AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Would Lose Senate Reelection in Arizona

Tightening MY ASS.

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-31 08:44AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Would Lose Senate Reelection in Arizona

I want McCain to lose his home state almost as much as I want him to lose overall.

by reggie44pride 2008-10-31 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Would Lose Senate Reelection in Arizona

So Mccain's coming to AZ for something other than Starbucks and a few days at the multimillion dollar "cabin" estate. And yet again the Mccain campaign gets it wrong. They put in an appearance in his home state but in Prescott, a very very Republican bastion. They're again preaching to a select audience of the very faithful...not one "undecided" voter there. And geesh but I would love to see our Gov. Janet Napolitano as my Senator! I'd also like to see the state that elected her Governor twice, help elect OBAMA!

by SuznAZ 2008-10-31 09:10AM | 0 recs


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