That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

We're all clear on how conservative bias permeates most stories aired on Fox News - from smears about Obama's religion to fear-mongering on economic policy.

But what's going on with their latest national poll?

Last week, when Fox's national poll showed Obama with a 49%-40% lead over McCain, they used a party breakdown of D43, R37.

This week, the Fox poll is showing a supposedly "tightening race," with an Obama lead of just 3% at 47-44. But their party breakdown moved heavily towards Republicans - D41, R39. So where Fox had dems with a +6 party ID advantage last week, this week it's a ridiculous +2.

And as we know, that type of shift can have a dramatic effect on the topline numbers.

So it begs the question - did Fox try and give McCain a hand establishing the "comeback" narrative he so desperately needs? I certainly don't have any specific proof; but I can't say it wasn't the first thought that popped in my head.

Tags: Election 08, Fox News (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

I'll see what O'Reilly says when I'm at the gym.

by esconded 2008-10-30 12:54PM | 0 recs
O'Reilly

He just mentioned that "the race is tightening and McCain is running out of time."

Tame.

by esconded 2008-10-30 04:54PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

"...did Fox try and give McCain a hand establishing the "comeback" narrative he so desperately needs?"

Yes.  Next question?

Seriously, thought, given the huge bump in Dem registrations this year, there's just no logical reason at this point to be decreasing that gap between Dems and Rethugs in their sample.

by writerswrite 2008-10-30 01:04PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

Even the poll in their first sample is wrong...  There are way more independents than they are allowing...

by LordMike 2008-10-30 01:07PM | 0 recs
The only poll that matters...

...is the one on election day.

The more FOX fudges, the more they blow it, and the more they forfeit what credibility they never had.

There is a silver lining to the tightening meme.

Specifically, it may prevent soft Obama supporters from becoming complacent and deciding the trip to the polls isn't worth it, as the thought of a Palin Presidency reenters their minds.

A horserace makes for a good news story, and such twittering from the axis of Weasels (FOX-Drudge-GOP) has yet to alter the demographics of the race.

I don't believe we ever could have or should have accounted for disallusioned republicans deciding at the last moment to stay home, however appealing that may be.

Let FOX play the tightening game. They'll just be that more wrong on Election Night.

by iohs2008 2008-10-30 01:42PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

Of course! Even their timing was designed to give McCain an edge. They clearly commissioned this poll immediately after seeing the tracking polls slow and receiving a heads-up from McCain's pollster that he saw some tightening.

by vcalzone 2008-10-30 01:20PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy
I suppose if they give you the breakdown, they're not being dishonest. But that's still misleading.
Plus, Joe Q. Public doesn't know aboute  the registration factor in these polls. Non-junkies probably think a fair poll is one where you ask the same number of Dems as Republicans. Imagine what those numbers look like...LOL
by xodus1914 2008-10-30 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

Fair and balanced is questionable. Cagy like a Fox is more like it.

by phoenixdreamz 2008-10-30 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

It would make sense if Fox did give him a "comeback".  It gives republicans a reason to go to the polls instead of staying home, knowing they will lose.  

by selfevident 2008-10-30 01:25PM | 0 recs
I'm not sure this ever would have happened

Realistically speaking, I'm not sure we could have ever counted on many GOPers to stay home at this point for fear they'd just end up losing.

by iohs2008 2008-10-30 01:44PM | 0 recs
I love how Obama has pushed back against Fox.

They are nothing more than a rightwing mouthpiece who's time has come.

by spacemanspiff 2008-10-30 01:32PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

No, it's just an outlier. The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll is very professional and has no record of shenanigans that I can remember. Remember, party ID is VERY different than party registration. Party ID is self-reported and a lot of low info voters just use it as a proxy for whomever they're voting for. In other words, the presidential preference drives the party ID, not the other way around. So this poll got too many McCain supporters by chance. That's all.

by ColoradoGuy 2008-10-30 01:51PM | 0 recs
Party IDs

Fox polls (along with CBS/NYT) have a lot of fluctuations in party ID.  That's been true for a long time.

by esconded 2008-10-30 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

Thank you for a rare bit of sanity.

by M1513 2008-10-30 02:58PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy
I maintain a Party ID/Sample Weighting website where I compile party ID numbers from as many polls as possible. http://courses.ttu.edu/hdfs3390-reifman/ weighting.htm
by ProfAlan 2008-10-30 03:05PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

Maybe this link will work better  :)

http://courses.ttu.edu/hdfs3390-reifman/ weighting.htm

by ProfAlan 2008-10-30 03:07PM | 0 recs
Two things...

They are trying to save the down ticket Republican critters.

And, they are setting up this

THEY STOLE THE ELECTION

meme, and pick your villians, but more then likely ACORN.

Because, they CAN'T admit the country repuditated their tactics, their candidates, their philosophy?

Hence, set up a story of a stolen election, and pound it into the base until it becomes accepted fact.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-30 03:41PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

So it begs the question - did Fox try and give McCain a hand establishing the "comeback" narrative he so desperately needs? I certainly don't have any specific proof; but I can't say it wasn't the first thought that popped in my head"
---------------------------------------- ---------

Yes.It was the first thought that popped into my head  too..and the last one as well.I believe 101% that that's the case.

by Lodgemannered 2008-10-30 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

Of course they did...it's Fox News.  Everything is designed to help the Republicans.

by gorebeatbush2 2008-10-30 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: That Fox News Poll: Something Fishy

They are all doing; CNN has a ticker that says Obama's lead is shrinking.

by jrsygrl 2008-10-30 05:21PM | 0 recs

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