Tracking Poll Update: McCain Inching (or Centimetering) Up

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4942
Gallup (Trad)4946
Gallup (Exp)5144
Rasmussen Reports5047
Research 2000/dKos5044
Composite:49.7544.50

One interesting thing to note out of the Gallup tracker is that although there has more or less been no movement in either likely voter model (the expanded model is exactly the same as it was yesterday, and the tightened model has John McCain down a point), Gallup's registered voter numbers actually show Barack Obama's lead growing by a couple of points from yesterday to today.

In other tracking poll news, the Washington Post/ABC News survey gives Obama the same 52 percent to 45 percent lead over McCain it gave him the day before, and for the fourth day in a row the Battleground tracker (.pdf) shows Obama edging McCain 49 percent to 46 percent.

Lumping all the numbers, what do we see? Obama remaining at or around 50 percent, and McCain inching (or perhaps more precisely centimetering) up from the low-40s, where he stood for some time, to the mid-40s. Does this indicate some tightening? Perhaps. But it's not the type of tightening McCain needs -- dragging Obama noticeably below 50 percent, and pushing himself above 45 percent.

And on the lighter side, a friend sent me this, which is also up on MyDD right now: DressLikePalin.com, which gives a bit of a run down on the types of things the GOP veep nominee has been spending money on of late.

We are 6 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

McCain's Pollster on MSNBC Predicts McCain Win

McCain's pollster on MSNBC (Andrea Mitchell's Show) said that McCain is going to win because 130-135 Million people are going to vote this election (approx. 90% of registered voters) and that undecideds (white, low income and low information) are going to break 70/30 for McCain and swamp the AAs and young voters who are coming out in big numbers for Obama.

He's circulating memo as to how this is going to create a big upset on November 4th.

by CB Todd 2008-10-29 09:51AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Pollster on MSNBC Predicts McCain Win

You knew that this was coming in some form.

They can't go into the last week with all the pundits boxing them into a no-win scenario.

Could this happen? Sure, I have drawn to an inside straight before?

But, I have lost that play WAY MORE then it's ever hit.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 09:59AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Pollster on MSNBC Predicts McCain Win

Not 70/30 undecideds, but 100% undecideds (or close to it)!

They will probably get 70/30 undecideds...  but high turnout does not favor them by any means... and their turnout numbers, supposedly are not that high looking back....

by LordMike 2008-10-29 10:12AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Pollster on MSNBC Predicts McCain Win

LM, you really think 100% of the undecideds break McCain?

Why so?

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Pollster on MSNBC Predicts McCain Win

McCain's pollster believes that, not me!  It's a little nuts, really...

by LordMike 2008-10-29 11:29AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Pollster on MSNBC Predicts McCain Win

Good...

I know we are getting worked up, but 100%??

That's blind optomism at work!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 12:04PM | 0 recs
Reagan Democrats

They may be going back to McCain.  I wonder if a huge turnout isn't for the best (Nate Silver seems to agree).

What does Jerome think?

by esconded 2008-10-29 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Reagan Democrats

Do you honestly go through life as depressed as you have sounded for months, or is this just a joke on the rest of us?

by rfahey22 2008-10-29 09:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Reagan Democrats

LOL, esconded.

You can be doubly worried, someone told me NO, it's not the Reagan Democrats, it's the Republican base coming home, up from 85 to 90%!

But, again, I have to believe Axelrod has these numbers and is still on plan.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 10:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Reagan Democrats

Who cares what Jerome thinks, the election will be decided in Pennsylvania where Obama is up by 8-12 points.  

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-29 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update

So, because Republicans are less enthusiastic this year, because they don't really like their presidential candidate, because the Bush administration created this huge mess we're in now, because the GOP GOTV operation is nowhere near where it was in 2004, because Obama has a fantastic GOTV operation and tons of cash, people are going to come out in record numbers this year(don't doubt that claime) and that's going to put McCain over the top?

Does not compute.

by OGLiberal 2008-10-29 10:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update

Elsewhere, I predicted that the race would tighten by 1.5 to 2.0 points in the last week.  

McCain had been drawing only 85 percent of the self-identified Republicans.  I figure that as push comes to shove, 5-7 percent more would say, "Oh...I don't like him but I guess I better vote for him" in the last 10 days.

I think Obama's final margin will be between 3.5 and 5.0 percent.

by InigoMontoya 2008-10-29 10:31AM | 0 recs
Hey, look on the bright side

This should draw all the old faces back?

Gloating on it's way, Concern by the bucketload!

Wow, I could really use some posts from Teh Engels to cheer me up....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 10:05AM | 0 recs
You have to also factor in the hedge betters

Late deciders, who are uncomfortable with EITHER candidate, think psychologically they are making the right play for voting for the NON-leader.

They can't decide for him, so they want to drag him back a bit.

It's weird, but shown to be the case with some very late deciders.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 10:07AM | 0 recs
Re: You have to also factor in the hedge betters

Oh Mady and LordMike, I hope I didn't raise you blood pressure level (saw the rec.)

Look, I STILL THINK Axelrod saw this coming, he has seen everything else.

He switched to an electoral battle about 2 months ago, and he has been absolutely going for broke for it in the last 3 weeks.

Could we lose?  Sure, anything is possible.

But, those guys have gotten this far by staying on plan, I am giving them the benefit of the doubt in the last week.

So, PLEASE keep this in mind.

I think by Election day, the National polls could say Obama up by a few OR a dead tie.

He will still win in the electoral college.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: You have to also factor in the hedge betters

BP is fine.  

I think Obama is going to win.

I do have this nightmare, though, of a zillion activated GOPs who finally wake up the day before the election terrified and highly motivated to vote.  

It is so hard to have been voting Democratic for my 40 years of voting and stay an optimist but I'm trying.  I....really....am.  

:-0

by mady 2008-10-29 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: You have to also factor in the hedge betters

I'm right with you.

I have been voting democratic since 1972, and I can't remember being this worked up!

It comes with the territory.

The Republicans think they win EVEN IF they lose.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 12:03PM | 0 recs
Ok, for all those freaking out about the national

Polls, please, it's all about the electoral college now:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081029/ap_o n_el_pr/ap_poll_battlegrounds_14

As Rachael said, it's the fourth quarter and we are playing almost all of it on the Republican side of the field!

Feel good about this!  Kerry or Gore would have KILLED to be tied or leading in those states!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 10:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Ok, for all those freaking out about...
And then theres this from the AP article....
"But the surveys confirm what McCain aides acknowledge privately -- their chances of winning are low."
by nzubechukwu 2008-10-29 10:51AM | 0 recs
stop sitting and get moving

All this fretting about polls is a waste of time. People are better off canvassing on the ground or phone-banking. All this is a waste of time.

by tarheel74 2008-10-29 10:48AM | 0 recs

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