Road To 60: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Goal Thermometer

First the good.

AK-Sen: As one would expect, the first poll since Sen. Ted Stevens was indicted shows Democrat Mark Begich surging. In the new Rasmussen Reports poll, which was in the field yesterday, Begich is up a net 9 points since the last poll three weeks ago.

Begich 52 (48)
Stevens 44 (49)

Not surprisingly, Stevens' favorables tanked although I continue to be amazed by the apparent lack of outrage among Alaskans at their senior senator.

Stevens is now viewed favorably by 43% of Alaska voters, down from 54% before the trial began. Still, even after the guilty verdict, 52% of voters say Stevens is about as ethical as most politicians. Fifteen percent (15%) say Stevens is more ethical than most of his peers while 31% say he is less ethical. These reactions say as much about perceptions of politicians as they do about Stevens.

Begich earns positive reviews from 57%, little changed from the previous poll.

On the other hand, some not so good news out of Minnesota.

MN-Sen: A new Rassmussen Reports poll of that race shows Norm Coleman with his first lead in a Rasmussen poll since mid-September (10/22 results in parentheses):

Coleman 43 (37)
Franken 39 (41)
Barkley 14 (17)

That's an almost unbelievable 8 point turnaround in less than a week. I'll have to see if other polls confirm a Coleman surge before I believe it. But it does appear that two factors are coming into play in the movement toward Coleman: 1. the ridiculous endorsement of Coleman by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and 2. third-party candidate Dean Barkley.

...the latest survey, taken Tuesday night, shows Coleman solidifying his GOP base by taking votes from Barkley and also pulling Democratic votes away from Franken. [...]

Barkley is supported by 10% of Democrats and five percent (5%) of Republicans. That's a three-point gain among Democrats and a loss of five among GOP voters from last week's survey.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of unaffiliated voters support Coleman, while 29% back Barkley and 27% Franken. These numbers remain largely the same compared to a week ago.

NC-Sen: And coming in as one of the ugliest ads of the cycle is an Elizabeth Dole ad that accuses Kay Hagan of being "godless" and even has some woman's voice at the end, over a picture of Hagan, saying "There is no God!" -- the implication is clear.

The truth, however, as Think Progress notes, is that:

...Hagan is an elder at the First Presbyterian Church in Greensboro, NC, has taught Sunday School and accompanied youth mission trips.

Hagan is not taking this lying down. She held a press conference this morning with her family and her minister to denounce the ad and has threatened legal action if the ad is not pulled within 24 hours. Good for her. She refuses to be Chamblissed. So, it's time for one final push for our Road To 60 candidates who are in need of our help. We have an opportunity to defeat corruption, divisive Rovian politics and one of the biggest faux moderate Bush enablers in the Senate next Tuesday. Got to the Road To 60 ActBlue page and give what you can. I've set an ambitious goal of 300 total donors by Saturday. If you haven't given yet, please do so, even if it's just $5 of $10.

Tags: AK-Sen, Al Franken, Kay Hagan, Mark Begich, MN-Sen, NC-SEN, Road to 60 (all tags)



Troubling, but...

Don't panic too much about Franken. The MN results look a bit nutty:

"Coleman gained 15 points with women in the last week? Unlikely." ids-love-paulsen-women-love-coleman/

by Scan 2008-10-29 02:15PM | 0 recs
on the other hand

Third-party candidate tend to poll better than they do on election day.

If Barkley was drawing disproportionately from Coleman in the past couple of months, it makes sense that Coleman would benefit more from voters realizing that Barkley is not viable and getting serious about their votes.

It is going to make me sick of Coleman survives this Democratic wave. That should never have happened.

by desmoinesdem 2008-10-29 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: on the other hand

Franken just wasn't a very good candidate with too much baggage.  He never got over 45% in any poll.  Though I do think there wasn't anybody better.  Coleman was a tough nut to crack.  If we pick up MN-3 and/or MN-6, it will be a good result in Minnesota.

by esconded 2008-10-29 02:53PM | 0 recs
Re: on the other hand

Why are y'all talking about this race like it's in the past tense? Come on now.

This poll today is within the margin of error and, like it was pointed out, is a bit nutty.

Obama will win there by 10-15% and will have incredible coattails. I still say Franken wins.

by Scan 2008-10-29 02:57PM | 0 recs
Finger crossed

Man, I hope so.

Otherwise, we know Bill'O the Clown will be gloating for weeks...

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 03:00PM | 0 recs
Franken Will Win

Franken will win in a race by a narrow plurality.

That will be a good laugh.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-10-29 03:26PM | 0 recs
I'm unhappy but not surprised at Minn

Al has not run a good campaign from what I read.

As for Liddy Dole, I have always thought she reminded me of Barbara Bush: this seeming sweet extra, but she would shiv you in the back if given the chance.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 02:16PM | 0 recs
Ugliest Ad All Year

"There is no God!"

I'm speechless.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-10-29 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Ugliest Ad All Year

Yeah, I'm cutting off The Bob Dole's Viagra, no more fun for Liddy!

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-29 02:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Ugliest Ad All Year

I like the way Hagen threw down over this.  But, I am worried we could lose all three races in NC.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-29 03:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Was it the way Franken had a non-reaction when Coleman threw up the gambit of no more negative ads?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-29 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Ah, Begich. Finally, the ship comes home. Both Udall brothers now in a firm standing, just Merkley to finish off the western sweep. Today, Smith put out a poll showing himself up 45-41... yea, right.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-29 03:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

I think Franken's biggest problem is that he was never particularly funny.

by bleahey 2008-10-29 03:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Franken had a lot of problems as a candidate, but also Coleman put together enough votes to look like a moderate. He's a good candidate, and in any other year Franken wouldn't even have come close.

by oyo 2008-10-29 05:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

I am not surprised by the Minnesota Senate poll.  Coleman has spent TONS of money, as well as the Republican party.  If Obama wins Minnesota big and has coattails maybe he can pull Franken with him.  The character stuff has resonated and Norm presents himself as a moderate and not a weasel turncoat.  It should be exciting, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the incumbent win this one.

by flatblade 2008-10-29 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Road To 60: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Coleman is a good candidate.  This is going to be tight.  I hope Obama has long coat tails.

Esconded:  Please move from my fair state.

by lojasmo 2008-10-30 04:55AM | 0 recs


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