Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

Gallup (Trad)4947
Gallup (Exp)5144
Rasmussen Reports5146
Research 2000/dKos5043

Today's Battleground tracker (.pdf) has shown no movement in the past couple of days, with Barack Obama maintaining a 49 percent to 46 percent lead over John McCain, while Pew polling gives Obama a 53 percent to 38 percent lead among likelies, roughly the same as a week ago. But regardless of whether Obama is up 3 points, 15 points, or about 6 points, it's important not to get complacent.

We are 7 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)




Hell, I am going to need ZANTAC by the bucket load here soon.

Someone said "Socializing" here at work, and I went into a 5 minute rant about corporate greed and the consolidation of wealth UP since 2000..They were talking about getting a beer after work!  (just kidding...)

Glad I don't chew my fingernails, they would be bloody stumps by now...

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-28 09:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

I fully expect the gap to stabilize or grow larger tomorrow.  It seems that Obama polls poorly on weekends and does much better during the week.  I expect with a workday replacing a weekend day, the numbers will look better for BO.

by flatblade 2008-10-28 10:01AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky


I think I can speak for everyone here
that this is the most nervous I have ever been in my life I wish I can fast forward to next tuesday  

by wellinformed 2008-10-28 10:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll

This is definately a "Talk Me Down" moment. By the way, I know state polls lag behind the national numbers, but McCain has been tightening for a while now but the state polls are moving in Obama's direction. What gives?

by RandyMI 2008-10-28 10:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll

The maxim about state polls lagging national polls is for average times during a race when states are being polled, at most, once a week.  Thus, state results are more often "stale," and will catch up to national tracking results the next time they're taken.  However, I don't think that applies to the current situation, where battleground states are being polled on a daily basis.  Under that scenario, when national trackers show tightening but state polls don't, it's probably a safe assumption that the tightening is taking place in other, non-battleground states instead.

by JDWalley 2008-10-28 02:13PM | 0 recs
Talk me down moment-Love it!

strictly a Democratic fetish I think (love that bit on Rachaels show BTW) as the Republicans NEVER think they lose EVEN WHEN THEY DO!

Democrats, we are so conditioned to be set up to be dissappointed after 2000 and 2004....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-28 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky--Vote

Hello Fellow Get out the Vote Teammates:

If you caught the Bill Maher Show on HBO a couple of nights ago, you were delighted (even more than usual ) with the content. The panel was led by Tim Robbins (lets give it up for Tim Robbins for President in 2016--with wife Susan for VP). He is so awesome--and related to this topic, about every 5 minutes, he would jump up almost out of his chair and yell at the camera
"DONT GO BY THE POLLS WITH OBAMA LEADING--GO AND VOTE EARLY WHERE YOU CAN". He was really emphatic. It was in line with is Oscar nominated performances in "Shawshank Redemption" and "Mystic River" (all rights reserved). He was great.
And by the way:

by hddun2008 2008-10-28 10:30AM | 0 recs
Obama should close it with guns blazing

We have the 30 minute spot tomorrow. I am sure it will be the most watched television event. But even after that he should launch some real broadsides against the McCain-Palin which includes Charles Keating and his continuous association with Keating partners as uncovered by McClatchy reports today, make the argument that only one person had common connections between the recession of today and that of the late 80s...John McCain and finally hang Ted Stevens like a rock around Palin's neck. The message of unity with real questions about the credibility of the Republican ticket. That will be the most effective argument.

by tarheel74 2008-10-28 10:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama should close it with guns blazing

I am very much looking forward to this, but it doesn't matter as I voted over 2 weeks ago.

I have a feeling this is going to be aimed at undecideds and independents, so I am not going to get myself wound up over it.  I think that most people here and on other left blogs are not going to like it at all.  I have a feeling that they are going to view it as they did the debates.

At this point Obama does not need the base Democrats to get behind him, they already has.  He has to make the final sale to those independants whose support is still weak and who have not yet voted.   he needs to be sure that when they walk into the voting booth on Tuesday that they don't wimp out and check off McCain, that they have the confidence to support Obama and change.

by gavoter 2008-10-28 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama should close it with guns blazing

That is why I believe in closing strong. In any debate or argument you make your most impassioned case at the end. Which means you close strong and draw very clear distinctions. I find all the talk of unity so early a little soft, while unity is good you still have to make the case not just why you are better but why the alternative is worse, much worse.

by tarheel74 2008-10-28 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

cautiously optimstic.  ...OH NOES WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by Doug Tuttle 2008-10-28 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

We got clobbered in Gallup today... disappointing after such a good showing yesterday... but, that's Gallup, fluctuates on a dime...

We're still stable in Rasmussen, and that's a good thing...  I hope this ad thing goes well tomorrow.  We are very lucky in that the (most likely) final World Series game will not be played tonight, but tomorrow and will be delayed about 15 minutes for the ad...  So, people tuning in to watch the game form PA and FL will see the last 15 minutes of Obama speaking.  That's a lot of good luck for us, really!

Supposedly, Obama's great speech in Canton yesterday is going to be the theme of this ad.  I hope it isn't too cheesy and it doesn't suck... A half hour of time is a long time to fill, and I remember Perot's ad which I thought was pretty awful (but, didn't really hurt him... all it was was a big puff piece on how great Perot was.. pretty egotistical ad, really)... but, the Obama team has done a good job in the past, so we should trust that they know what they are doing....

I don't like this tightening stuff at all, but if it helps relieve complacency, then I guess it is a good thing... Let's hope we can finish the job!

by LordMike 2008-10-28 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

I'd like to add that I thought his Canton speech yesterday was fantastic, so if that's the theme of the ad, we should be in very good shape with the ad tomorrow.

I wonder if any firm is going to do snap polling after the ad airs tomorrow.  That would be interesting stuff!

by LordMike 2008-10-28 10:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update:

I think the half-hour ad could potentially damage Obama if he miscalculates. There would be no time to repair it if that happens.

by RandyMI 2008-10-28 11:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update:

I am sure this has already been viewed by some focus groups.  I am sure it has gone through many editing sessions, probably more than your typical hollywood blockbuster.  I am sure this is aimed square at the American middle.

This is not going to be a special to rev up the troops.  There will be no Gov. Dean scream.

This will probably be a very sober, nuanced sales pitch that will remind voters of Obama's upbringing and his vision of the future.  

I have a feeling that this has been designed specifically to make sure that any weak support in the middle stays in Obama's column through November 5.  

by gavoter 2008-10-28 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update:

Sorry Randy, I just don't see your logic.  How does a well thought out and planned ad possibly damage Obama?  

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-28 11:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update:

I'm just having my first "concern day" of the campaign today.

by RandyMI 2008-10-28 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update:


Mine started the day after New Hampshire...

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-28 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update:

If I am asked to put my money on it, the half-hour ad will be to introduce Obama as the man, his life, where he is from and what his vision is for the US. There will be no controversial topics here. This is just to dispel all the whisper campaigns circulating around and make voters comfortable with him.

by tarheel74 2008-10-28 11:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

We are going to win by 5.  Conservative independents will come home to McCain, but it won't change the fact that it will be an electoral landslide.

by Marylander 2008-10-28 10:56AM | 0 recs
Worthless polls.

All these polls are meaningless. Does anyone here HONESTLY think McCain is ONLY down by 2 points according to Gallup?  Please.... The state polls tell the true story.  Honestly, what matters is what's going on the ground.  Did any of you see Rassmussen's battleground numbers yesterday?  Obama is ahead in FL, CO, OH, and tied in NC.  THAT'S what MATTERS.

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-28 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

Don't sit by and let this one get away from us.  If you aren't involved in the campaign, go to, find a group where you live, and volunteer.  You can actually do volunteer work without even leaving your home!

If you are not in a swing state, you can help call people in swing states.  You can knock on doors, take people to the polls, call your radio stations and tv stations and beg them to encourage people to vote early (if you live in an early vote state).

I am a disabled/retired old white woman doing everything i can to help.  I can't walk more than a few feet, can't stand for long, but I CAN drive people to the polls, make those phone calls, and donate my piddly $20 and $30 online....gasp...I am ONE of THOSE suspicious people donating online to a campaign I believe in.

Someone stole my Obama yard sign Sunday morning, for the THIRD time.  I put another one out, and immediately went online and donated to the campaign in HONOR of the person who took it!  I will eat less meat the next week to pay for that, not a problem!

We can't let this one get away...only the rich and the haters can afford 4 more years!  Get busy and DO SOMETHING to help take our country back!

by lilaruby 2008-10-28 11:46AM | 0 recs
IBD-TIPP: O 47.7, M 43.7 n/t

by esconded 2008-10-28 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: IBD-TIPP: O 47.7, M 43.7 n/t

What, you didn't feel like doing a whole diary on it...(yet!)

LOL, Esconded, I have a feeling at least you will have the guts to show up here on the 5th even if Obama wins big....

Just wonder what you will say?

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-28 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: IBD-TIPP: O 47.7, M 43.7 n/t

I'm just such a pessimist.

by esconded 2008-10-28 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: IBD-TIPP: O 47.7, M 43.7 n/t

Well if you're a democrat, kind of goes with the landscape....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-28 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky
Honest to god, if one more blogger tells me not to get complacent, I am going to reach through the computer screen and slap their tongue out of their mouth.
by skohayes 2008-10-28 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

Don't get complacent.

Now I am waiting for the part where you reach through the computer screen and slap the tongue out of my mouth.

by dMarx 2008-10-28 01:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky
LOL, I wouldn't do that to you!! I really wouldn't do it to anyone, but do you get what I'm saying?
by skohayes 2008-10-29 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Don't Get Cocky

Excessive cheer leading and kool-aid drinking leads to complacency.


If Obama loses this election we may never get to find out who he really is.

by dMarx 2008-10-28 01:52PM | 0 recs
Tipping Point Is 4%

Conventional Wisdom is that independents will vote McCain because of the fear factor. Otherwise, they'd already be in the Obama column.  So there will be some tightening. But Charlie Cook said on Hardball that so long as Obama goes into to Tuesday with a 4% plus lead in the polls Nationally he'd win for sure.

If McCain can somehow hget it down to 3-4% then he has a chance. More than that-then no chance.

by CB Todd 2008-10-28 02:39PM | 0 recs


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