Tracking Poll Update: A Static Race?
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 10:19:34 AM EDT
Today's Battleground tracker (.pdf) finds a tighter race than the four daily trackers above, with Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 49 percent to 46 percent margin, and yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll found a 52 percent to 45 percent lead.
Yet despite some of the internal movement within some of the polls, and the slightly different results the individual polls deliver, the most remarkable aspect of the campaign is the lack of movement in the national polling over the last month. Take a look at the trend estimate from Pollster.com, weeding out the internet polls and a couple of the less reliable telephone polls, while also using less sensitive smoothing so as not to overstate the importance of temporary blips:
As you can see, the lines for both Obama and McCain are relatively flat. (Bowers has more.)
We are 8 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?