Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Leads By About 7 Points

Here are today's numbers:

Gallup (Trad)5046
Gallup (Exp)5145
Rasmussen Reports5245
Research 2000/dKos5141

Today's Battleground tracker (.pdf) has Barack Obama leading by 4 points among likely voters, 49 percent to 45 percent, while the ABC News/Washington Post tracker (.pdf) shows Obama up 11 points, 54 percent to 43 percent. An Associated Press poll (.pdf), which quizzically predicted about twice the Evangelical turnout as has historically occurred (44 percent vs. 23 percent turnout in 2004), shows Obama up a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent. Fox News (.pdf), on the other hand, finds a 9-point Obama lead, 49 percent to 40 percent.

So as has been the case before, we have seen some divergence in the polls, though with most showing Obama at or around 50 percent and John McCain at or below 45 percent, a situation that continues to have Republicans worried -- particularly considering that the amount of time between now and election day continues to shrink without much of any movement towards the GOP ticket.

We are 12 days out from election day. What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)




What are you doing to help enact progressive change in this country?

Calling, canvassing, donating, and VOTING.  I want the Republicans in rubble for decades.

by fogiv 2008-10-23 10:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Sweet.

One would ask the same question to Jerome!

by venician 2008-10-23 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Sweet.

Hey two-bit troll, I'm working on about a dozen races more than you are.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-23 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Sweet.

Yeah, cut Jerome some slack. Just because he doesn't like Obama doesn't mean that he isn't working to get other Democrats elected.

by dtaylor3 2008-10-23 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Sweet.

Obama is gonna win, even without my love.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-23 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Sweet.

Thank goodness.

by dtaylor3 2008-10-23 10:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Sweet.

But it's not Congress who will be able to change the direction the country is headed nor will they be able to restore Americas good name.

by venician 2008-10-23 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

Huh, I am not sure that the WaPost is the authority on this polling question about "born again and evangelical Christians." I just looked back to Battleground's poll in '04 at this time, which uses the exact same language as does the Roper poll, and they too got an answer of 44% to this particular question (while showing Bush ahead 49-45).  

As I pointed out, what is skewing that particular poll is Democratic drop-off, among Latinos, moderates and independent lean Democrats, not increased Republicans.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-23 10:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

I'd argue that that poll (the '04 poll) is similarly an outlier, and I'd go with the nationwide exit polling from 2004 instead, which showed 23%.

Simple thought experiment: if 44% of the US is born again and evangelical Christians, and if 80% of those vote Republican, the Republican base is 35%. That means all the Republicans who aren't in the born again and evangelical group -- the Catholics, Presbyterians, Methodists, Episcopalians, Lutherans, the Jewish, Muslim, agnostic, athiest, etc -- all of them -- are about 2% of the population? Because I assure you that people within those religious groups would not answer "yes" to "are you a born-again or evangelical Christian?". Most particularly, I'm quite familiar with the ELCA (Evangelical Lutheran Church In America) -- which has Evangelical in its name, for goodness sake -- and no one that I know would ever answer that question yes. They might explain why "evangelical" is misused, in their opinion, but they know what a yes means and they're not biting.

That's clearly an absurd result. The evangelical base is not 35% of the US population; if so, Republican party ID would be more like 50%.

Both factors are driving that poll. What they're showing is that Latinos and young voters who are in the born again and evangelical category are Obama supporters -- which isn't an unreasonable result.

It's still a massive oversampling of conservatives and born-again and evangelical Christians -- unless you're prepared to argue that Republican party ID should be more like 50% of the population.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-23 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

I was just watching Neil Newhouse completely dismiss the AP poll. He is the R half of the NBC poll and is  a well-known pollster. He didn't even want to try to explain it and said it is just best to look at the average of the polls.

by sweet potato pie 2008-10-23 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

13% undecided or voting for someone else in AP poll?  That sound right to anyone?

by Do Something 2008-10-23 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

Makes sense to me.  Then again, I'm "low-edu".

by fogiv 2008-10-23 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

Yes, you are, now stfu.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-23 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

Classy.  How'd you get my transcripts anyway?

by fogiv 2008-10-23 11:23AM | 0 recs
Green with Envy, Red with Anger

I think Jerome is just angry because he's about the only progressive big name blogger who is not appearing on tee vee. Makos is and even Sirota, but the blog father, MIA.

by venician 2008-10-23 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Green with Envy, Red with Anger

Me knot know.  Us is allz just stoopid.

by fogiv 2008-10-23 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Me fail English

huked on fonix werked 4 mee.

by fogiv 2008-10-23 04:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

Sure, maybe Battleground is the same, and they just happened to nail '04 with the same result regardless;, but I am not arguing anything about this particular number, other than its not the relevant item that it is moving the LV numbers here.

It's clear that its a drop-off and not an increase, that moves the numbers, going from total respondents to LV's.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-23 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Still Le

Oh, on that point we agree. It's the drop-off that sinks Obama to 1%. The groups they choose to drop off are unrealistic, mind you -- but that's how they get that result.

Nevertheless, the two highlights of this poll for me are:

  1. Among RV's it's a 10-point spread. Since their LV model is almost certainly garbage (and if now I want to see the defense of it), that's a good result.
  2. They achieve a 10-point RV spread while massively oversampling evangelicals (and really, while I agree that Battlefield got the margin right, nothing else shows even remotely a 40+ evangelical number -- heck, someone on NPR was saying tonight that it's more like 10% -- and remember that 40+ evangelicals translates into around 50% R's). That's again huge for Obama; double his worst demographic group and he's still up by 10.

Or of course, it's just a very bad poll and plucking the good news out of the bad news is invalid :). I don't see it as wider than 10% at the present time, so most likely we should just go with bad poll.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-23 07:01PM | 0 recs
till Leads By About 7 Points

Today's Battleground has it at 45%

As the article you like to says, "...polling specialists said the 2004 wording virtually assures more affirmative answers." And probably even moreso in this environment.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-10-23 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: till Leads By About 7 Points



That's right ... IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds. Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?

IBD/TIPP puts an asterisk by this result, stipulating that "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size".

Indeed, there may be some fluctuations when looking at small subgroups like these. That's why I generally don't pick on a poll if, say, it has John McCain winning 18 percent of the black vote when he's only "supposed" to be winning 7 percent or whatever. Fluctuations of that magnitude are going to be relatively common, mathematically speaking. In fact, they're entirely unavoidable, if you're taking enough polls and breaking out the results amongst enough subgroups.

But fluctuations of this magnitude are an entirely different matter.

Suppose that the true distribution of the 18-24 year old vote is a 15-point edge for Obama. This is a very conservative estimate; most pollsters show a gap of anywhere from 20-35 points among this age range.

About 9.3 percent of the electorate was between age 18-24 in 2004. Let's assume that the percentage is also 9.3 percent this year. Again, this is a highly conservative estimate. The IBD/TIPP poll has a sample size of 1,060 likely voters, which would imply that about 98 of those voters are in the 18-24 age range.

What are the odds, given the parameters above, that a random sampling of 98 voters aged 18-24would distribute themselves 74% to McCain and 22% to Obama?

by BDM 2008-10-23 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update

Like 2004 This race for the most part is rather stable. Bush was either tied or ahead by a couple of points of Kerry and Kerry could never really get above 47% in the average of the polls.

In this case McCain can't get over 45%(!) in the polls and the gap isn't really shrinking.  It was easy to see how 2004 was a tossup, not so much this time around.

I expect McCain to get at least 46% of the vote but he won't win.

I'm sticking with 52-47 Obama. This thing is about over.

by sweet potato pie 2008-10-23 10:22AM | 0 recs


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