Blowout Numbers

They are just three pollsers, out of many (some of which say its much tighter), but look at this blowout:


Quinnipiac:
Florida: Obama 49, McCain 44
Ohio: Obama 52, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 40


Big Ten:
Illinois: Obama 61, McCain 32
Indiana: Obama 51, McCain 41
Iowa: Obama 52, McCain 39
Ohio: Obama 53, McCain 41
Michigan: Obama 58, McCain 36
Minnesota: Obama 57, McCain 38
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 41
Wisconsin: Obama 53, McCain 40


CNN/TIME:
Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 46
North Carolina: Obama 51, McCain 47
Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 46
Virginia: Obama 54, McCain 44


Numbers like these, if they hold up, make 400 EV's a possibility.

Tags: 2008 (all tags)

Comments

49 Comments

Plus Zogby has Obama up 12 today

Do not trust Zogby numbers! Zogby is way over sampling Republicans.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?I D=1605

by Cleveland John 2008-10-23 05:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Plus Zogby has Obama up 12 today

Zogby can be taken as an outlier, and the numbers are still fairly strong. I anticipated this phase of the fight. McCain will pull out the stops now.
My prediction for the election:

Obama 57%
Mcain 39%

Because McCain is running with Karl Rove's campaign ideas, he will get Karl Rove-style results.

by Trey Rentz 2008-10-23 06:57AM | 0 recs
Wish I shared your optimism

But I don't see any way that this will be a Reagan 84 or Johnson 64 style blowout. Not gonna happen. If Obama has a blowout, it would be in reelection (if we get there).

This race will be within ten points, probably within five as wavering Obama supporters get cold feet in the last few days.

As Maddow pointed out, I wouldn't be a good Democrat if I didn't think we have a chance to screw up this thing.

by existenz 2008-10-23 07:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

Rasmussen gives Obama another point too.

Wow, that kind of optimism from Jerome.  That really gets the morning off to a good start :)

by thezzyzx 2008-10-23 05:34AM | 0 recs
well that would

mean i get to go out to a bar to celebrate instead of biting my nails down to stubs

by sepulvedaj3 2008-10-23 05:36AM | 0 recs
In a nutshell?

I know you touched on this yesterday in your long post, but for those of us who are less knowledgeable of polling, would it be possible for you (or anyone else) to briefly theorize why some say the race is close, and some say it's a blowout?

by iohs2008 2008-10-23 05:40AM | 0 recs
Re: In a nutshell?

Here's Nate Silver's take.

by username 2008-10-23 06:08AM | 0 recs
Re: In a nutshell?

Margin of error

Methodology differences

A margin of error of say 4% means Obama could be up to 4% lower AND McCain up to 4% higher. So a 10% lead could be 2%.

How you select and process your sample is also important. For it to truly be a "representative random sample" the pollster needs to have a sample that reflects the demographic makeup of the electorate. That can get difficult in more subjective categories like party affiliation.

Leaners and likely voters. Different methodologies for determining likely voters (see Gallup) and how hard to push a leaner on their preference. These are also volatile voters, especially this late in the game. For Obama and voting one day, for McCain but not voting the next.

by meddembob 2008-10-23 06:55AM | 0 recs
which is why I'm outraged

that the DCCC is still spending so much money in districts we've won while not spending a dime in so many other winnable races:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDia ry.do?diaryId=3622

We are going to leave a dozen or more winnable House seats on the table.

In 2010 we will be on defense and unlikely to pick up many Republican-held seats. Now, with the dominating Obama ground game on our side, is the time for the DCCC to invest in more under-funded challengers.

I can't believe some of the districts where they are still not spending money (CA-46, AL-03, IA-04).

by desmoinesdem 2008-10-23 05:47AM | 0 recs
Also FL-15

A diarist on kos mentioned that one.  An open seat in a district that is just barely republican now.  Candidate has been a poor fundraiser, but man the fundamental conditions seem ripe for a switch.

by edparrot 2008-10-23 06:38AM | 0 recs
Re: which is why I'm outraged

That's a great call, desmoinesdem. I thought we learned our lesson in 2006, when many seats were left on the table despite our +31, or whatever it was. Tessa Hafen in NV-3 was a great example, obviously a potential victor throughout but all but ignored by the national committee until the final weeks.

If the generic lead hold and Obama wins big, the seats we targeted early are likely to win more decisively than we expected, leaving the fringe districts teetering and many unfunded seats frustratingly narrow defeats.

In 2010, assuming Obama wins and given the numbers/places we already hold, we will be playing defense everywhere -- House, senate and gov. This is the time to prioritize and pounce.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-10-23 12:39PM | 0 recs
396

That's the highest I can imagine Obama getting, giving McCain only 18 states: AZ, UT, ID, AK, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV, and SC. 400 seems totally impossible.

Before we get too confident though, I heard from a good source in the PA campaign that the Obama campaign's internal numbers look a hell of a lot tighter than any of these public polls. They could just be bluffing to get their people to recruit more volunteers, but this staffer seemed to really believe it was true.

by Hatch 2008-10-23 05:48AM | 0 recs
Even Arizona isn't impossible.

And wouldn't that be delicious.

by warmwaterpenguin 2008-10-23 06:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Even Arizona isn't impossible.

WV could certainly be in play.

by sab39 2008-10-23 06:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Even Arizona isn't impossible.

Mississippi isn't totally impossible.  It's more likely than Texas.

by Jess81 2008-10-23 06:40AM | 0 recs
not sure...

but I think we may see the first ever joint stump appearances of Obama, Bill Clinton and HRC together in Ohio and Pennsylvania late next week (and possibly WV).

by mboehm 2008-10-23 07:52AM | 0 recs
Tip jar!

Jerome, make a tip jar so we can send you some love. God knows you need it for all the shyte you've taken.

by Spiffarino 2008-10-23 05:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Tip jar!

hehehe, that's pretty funny.

by j royale 2008-10-23 07:01AM | 0 recs
Thanks Jerome

The good thing about your previous scepticism is that if you think 400 EVs are in sight, then we start believing it.

I wonder if the Powell Endorsement was a big factor in this surge. Or is it just the human factor - voters want to vote for a winner

by brit 2008-10-23 05:51AM | 0 recs
Young Voters

And some people claim that young people are not going to vote

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27308749/

by gavoter 2008-10-23 05:53AM | 0 recs
Too good to be true

If numbers seem too good to be true, they are more likely not true than too good.

Now is not a time to let up on the GOTV based on a false sense of security.

by bakho 2008-10-23 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Too good to be true

GOTV is the strongest I have ever seen in Georgia.  it is all about early voting.   There are signs all over Metro Atlanta reminding people to vote for Obama early and it appears to be working.    As of yesterday nearly 900,000 people have already cast ballots.  That is over 16% of all registered voters and there are still 7 early voting days left.

by gavoter 2008-10-23 06:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Too good to be true

I'd amend this -- it's all about early voting right now. This is a completely planned GOTV effort. They've already got very detailed election-day GOTV plans (there was a great piece on it on 538, I believe), starting with shifts from midnight to 3 am delivering info to the doorsteps of likely voters with long commutes and continuing through shifts hitting shorter (but still longish) commute voters, regular commuters, then shifting into a drive-voters-to-the-polls effort.

I know you probably didn't mean to exclude that, but it's important to note that early voting is the strategy during early voting time -- every EV is one less voter we need to get out on election day. But EV is not the strategy, it's just part of the strategy.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-10-23 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

Concern troll is.. ..

er wait.

by mrrar 2008-10-23 06:41AM | 0 recs
I've got a name for that potential scenario:

Obama will have pulled a "Ted Williams" on McCain.

by Blue In SC and MD 2008-10-23 06:44AM | 0 recs
Re: I've got a name for that potential scenario:

Put his head in a cryogenic tank?

by fogiv 2008-10-23 09:44AM | 0 recs
Re: I've got a name for that potential scenario:

Hit .400.

Damn!

by vadasz 2008-10-23 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: I've got a name for that potential scenario:

Heh.  I know.  I just thought the other might be a viable option too.  Why not hope for both?

;)

by fogiv 2008-10-23 10:28AM | 0 recs
What's with those two OH polls?

Has OH flipped 15 points in a week, or are they outliers?  that's the 64K question.

by Deeg 2008-10-23 06:45AM | 0 recs
Re: What's with those two OH polls?

Gotta be outliers...  I live here... this is going to be a tough state.  Rush Limbaugh is beloved here.  If the numbers are true, then the only reason I can fathom is that republicans in Ohio are giving up and telling pollsters they are staying home.

The SCOTUS decision that prevented the Ohio GOP from throwing out 200,000 votes hit republicans hard here.  I think they believed that they could steal the state again, and without that option, perhaps many have lost heart and given up.  You should have seen how disheartened goopers here were when that ruling came down.  In their eyes, you could tell that they were now resigned to losing...  

We shall see...

by LordMike 2008-10-23 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

Those big 10 numbers are too good to be true.

by Drummond 2008-10-23 06:54AM | 0 recs
All 3 of these polls lean Democrat

Which explains why they all look pretty good.

by existenz 2008-10-23 07:45AM | 0 recs
Re: All 3 of these polls lean Democrat

I especially don't believe the Indiana poll.  I want to, but I don't.

by Drummond 2008-10-23 01:26PM | 0 recs
Those Q-Pac figures for Ohio

have to be wrong.  

Here in TN my vote doesn't count for much.

by Monkei 2008-10-23 06:54AM | 0 recs
why is Obama in Indiana

Seriously. I realize we want to blow McCain out, but we do not need Indiana. I think anytime Obama or a surrogate is not in Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, North Carolina, or Florida - is wasted time.

by highgrade 2008-10-23 07:04AM | 0 recs
Re: why is Obama in Indiana

No, it is not wasted time.  This is not 2004 where Kerry had only one very narrow path to victory.    Elections like this only come around once in a generation or so and you need to take advantage of the situation.

Obama has the money and the resources.  None of them are any use on November 5.   And as any marketing person will tell you the first $100 spent is much more effective than the fifth $100 spent.    We should be working to win Indiana and Missouri as well as North Carolina

by gavoter 2008-10-23 07:15AM | 0 recs
GEORGIA

Marc Ambinder reports that a Republican he knows in GA estimates that African Americans will make up 35% of the electorate down there.

by RandyMI 2008-10-23 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: GEORGIA

With over 16% of the vote already cast they are still at over 35% total.    This has been consistant since early voting started.  You can check in out on the Georgia Secretary of State Webiste.

About the only way this can keep up is to have nearly 100% turnout.  Georgia is about 30% African American, but they are underrepresented in registered voters, less than 28% of the total.

This would be an enormous overperformance, but not impossible given the excitement about Obama.

by gavoter 2008-10-23 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: GEORGIA

So what does that mean?  That for Obama to win he has to pick up about 32 percent of the White vote, correct?

by Jess81 2008-10-23 07:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

Things can always shift at the last minute, but I take some solace knowing that millions of people have already voted, and that every day Obama is up means more of an advantage while the polls are open.

PA needs to get with the program next time though  :)

by randomscientist 2008-10-23 07:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

Again, I hate to put cold water on the situation, but lets not get ahead of ourselves...continue to work or poll numbers like these will be a memory.  It aint over til election day. DONT GET COCKY.  VOLUNTEER VOLUNTEER VOLUNTEER

by democratunc 2008-10-23 07:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers
Volunteer to be a Democratic Poll watcher--in this there is no life after Nov. 4th if McCain wins--more war in Iraq, more war on Middleclasses, less freedoms, less Bill Of Rights, more corporate welfare, more national debt, more money for the rich 1% (McCain and Cindy are in this group).
Volunteer/Watch the polls to keep the RNC from Robbing us.
by hddun2008 2008-10-23 07:59AM | 0 recs
Even if we know we would

squeak out a win it's not enough!  We want to punish the opposition!  We want a blowout!

We've waited a long time to show these characters just what we think of their neo-con policies and criminal activity.

by GFORD 2008-10-23 08:04AM | 0 recs
early voters are changing likely voter models

In some of these states, 20% have already voted. Many of these early voters weren't being picked up by some pollsters who were using 2004 likely voter models.

by mo 2008-10-23 07:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

Can we just vote now please??  NO ONE get complacent.  EVERYONE vote.

by scytherius 2008-10-23 07:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers
This is great news. However, and its a big HOWEVER, the RNC is going to do some voter suppression and vote machine rigging will kick in as these numbers start to scare the hell out of Bush/Cheney/the RNC who stand to get put on trial for lying about Iraq and war crimes at GITMO. But I will take the good news. We would have a chance in Texas if the state did not use the computer voting machines which my view are already pre-programmed for McCain by 5%. The reason is simple--the Democrats in Texas who have been totally wiped out in the last 14 years in all races federal/state/local are coming back strong. But in 2006 the RNC here in Texas got whooped in Dallas County (formerly one of the most conservative in the nation--remember that some analysts say the only place JFK could have been assassinated was in Dallas). But that was then and this is now. Anyway, the RNC have lots of money here and they are fighting an Alamo type battle to maintain control. They are rich and smart. Remember in 2007 that Gov. Perry faced totally being blown out in the Republican primary by Mrs. Carol Rylander-McCellan-Etc. She would have surely waxed him but lo and behold just before the primary she suddenly changed to an "Independent Candidate". We all wonder how much money she got for changing from the RNC--my guess is in the neighborhood of $4 to 5 Millions. She took the money and didn't run against Pretty Perry but the RNC's tactic was to split up the Republican voters who didn't like Perry so that he would win. The point in all this is that unless we have about a million poll watchers the RNC has $500 million to rig this election--you can bet on it. Make sure people go to the polls and understand how to vote using the machines and understand that they need to take a small piece of paper to write down their votes--remember Diebold and the Bush/Cheney crowd did not put printers on the voting machines for one reason-to rig your election and take away your right to vote.
LETS GO BACK TO PUNCH CARD VOTING NOW!!!
by hddun2008 2008-10-23 07:55AM | 0 recs
lol, Jerome is now talking about 400 EV

he must have seen a shrink during his week off.

I make 402 EVs the ceiling for Obama unless the McCain campaign falls apart completely in the final week and a half. That's maximal, but the campaign is acting as if they believe they can get close with late visits to WV and IN.

I see 286 as about the minimum likely Obama result, but most of the signs are pointing to something considerably higher than that.

by al1 2008-10-23 07:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

If we even get in the mid 300's I'll be so pleased.  McCain has MADE this a choice for America between idealogies - conservative or progressive.  If America gives a clear, overwhelming victory to Obama, the message will be clear.  Reagonomics are a lie we aren't willing to believe anymore.  I'm so excited.

by proseandpromise 2008-10-23 08:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Blowout Numbers

Crazy numbers.

I was wondering earlier why polls show Ohio a tossup when we are doing so well in Indiana and Pennsylvania, but here we go.  McCain is collapsing further by the day.

by Skaje 2008-10-23 12:44PM | 0 recs

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