McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

Chris Bowers was skeptical of John King's assertion that "most top people inside the McCain campaign now think Colorado is gone," not because it's not true, but only because he'd be shocked to see McCain actually pull out of the state.

King didn't say that McCain has written off Colorado (or Iowa or New Mexico), just that most members of the campaign think it is lost. They would be accurate on that count. However, I'll believe McCain pulls out of Colorado when he stops running ads there. Or, say, when his campaign stops holding rallies there, as Palin just did earlier this evening. Giving up on Colorado, where McCain trails by 4.5%, and going for Pennsylvania, where he trails by at least 10.0%, would be a colossally stupid move by McCain.

Not that the McCain campaign has ever shirked from stupidity, but in this case, Bowers seems to have read them correctly. Jonathan Martin reports on the campaign's pushback against King's report:

Two senior aides didn't deny that Colorado appeared challenging, but pointed to the two key indicators of any campaign's intent, time and money, to make the case that they were still holding out hope there.

"We didn't send Gov. Palin there for no reason," said one, a reference to the vice presidential nominee's three rallies across the state today.

Another aide pointed out that the campaign and RNC's independent expenditure committee were both still on the airwaves there.

Martin describes the campaign's version of the (narrowing) path ahead:

The campaign believes that there are different formulas to get to 270, not all of which include Colorado. But without it, as King writes, McCain must not only hold onto a number of precarious red states such as Virginia, Nevada and Florida, but also bring a major blue state such as Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes over. McCain aides have also held out hope that they could lose Pennsylvania but still win with the combination of Minnesota and Wisconsin, 20 total electoral votes, but public polls in both states show McCain down by double-digits.

Funny that Martin seems to think the whole winning Wisconsin and Minnesota is the crazy thing in this scenario. Looking at Pollster.com, it's pretty interesting to note that Obama's margin in Wisconsin (8.1%) plus his margin in Minnesota (6.9%) almost exactly equals his lead in Pennsylvania (15.2%.) So, which state is it that, on paper, actually looks like the least likely pick-up for McCain?

Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain, Pennsylvania (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado
From Houston, Texas:
The first day of Early Voting posted some astonishing results. In 2004, the first day had about 20,000 early voters casting ballots but today Monday Oct. 20 there were over 38,000 votes cast. This is huge. Consider that in the Texas primary between Hillary and Obama, for the first time in memory (since about 1984) more Democrats voted in the primary than did Republicans. The totals there were also significant. Republicans votes totalled about one-half of the Democrat total. I don't know about polls but I think things are churning in this former solid Red state. I would be interested to know if any polling numbers can be accessed for Texas.
Thanks
by hddun2008 2008-10-21 12:49AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

http://www.pollster.com/polls/tx/08-tx-p res-ge-mvo.php

Pretty unlikely.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-10-21 01:11AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

I think there's an unspoken assumption in all of that that voters in Pennsylvania are lying about who they support.   The McCain campaign is hoping the vote turns out on racial lines, which is more likely in Pennsylvania than in a DFL type state.

Or that's how I read it, anyway.  There's probably something to that - George Wallace was never terribly popular in the midwest.

by Jess81 2008-10-21 12:56AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

Faith-based campaigning.  They're saying that they believe in the rotten side of humanity so strongly that they'll stake their whole campaign over it.

McCain/Palin '08: We'd would rather win a race war than win an election. Also, youbetcha!

by hello world 2008-10-21 03:39AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

I know, really.

It's always interesting to see what people will do when they know they're going to lose.

by Jess81 2008-10-21 04:41AM | 0 recs
let's face it

at this point they have no convincing route to 270. I have Obama comfortably ahead in states totalling 286 EV and highly competitive in states up to 375 so something very dramatic is going to have to happen for McCain to even have a chance.

One point in favour of PA is that it doesn't have early voting, so in case there is a last-minute surge for McCain he would bank it all in PA whereas in CO Obama will probably already be well ahead from early votes cast come election day. Another is that it has 21 EV so would nullify the loss of CO AND VA.

Not too likely they'll overturn a 10 point deficit in 2 weeks, of course, but none of the other options look particularly attractive right now either. So I don't think it's a completely crazy idea - they are just in a very tough spot.

by al1 2008-10-21 04:14AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

by al1 2008-10-21 04:14AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

Just absurd.  90% of the voters according to the polls in PA have made up their mind and are committed.  What makes him think that is going to change in two weeks?

by sweet potato pie 2008-10-21 04:53AM | 0 recs
If the Bradley Effect is your magic bullet

Then your firewall becomes PA.

Watch where the smears move.

If they stay on socialism, they are playing for CO...

If it seems like Reverend Right has moved into Southern PA (my guess)Rick Davis believes in an America will people will vote
their fear of the color black over the fear of the color red...

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 04:56AM | 0 recs
interesting idea...

smears and lies tailored for each State.

by mboehm 2008-10-21 06:49AM | 0 recs
Stop lying. Stop Snitching.

They gave up on Colorado, they just don't wont to say it out in the open.

by nzubechukwu 2008-10-21 05:31AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

I wonder if the reason they are making a play for PA is the lack of early voting there.  Obama can't bank any votes there now, so maybe they are hoping that two weeks of nastiness plus GOP voter suppresion efforts will make PA winnable.

by evap 2008-10-21 06:09AM | 0 recs
Good point...

Which is why I think they will hit Penn hard with Reverend Wright ads next week.

They are praying for the Bradley effect, and hoping undecideds swing towards McCain.

I still think Barack wins PA, but it will probably close the gap some.

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-21 07:01AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Campaign Not Giving Up On Colorado

Yeah, seemed odd to me that Palin was in Colorado yesterday, yet they're allegedly giving up on it.

However, I don't mind spreading the rumour that they're giving up on Colorado.

by Bush Bites 2008-10-21 06:33AM | 0 recs

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