John King: McCain Campaign Believes CO, IA and NM Are Gone
by Todd Beeton, Mon Oct 20, 2008 at 04:54:28 PM EDT
Well, hell, I could have told them that.
John King on CNN:
Most people top in the McCain campaign now believe New Mexico and Iowa are gone...They are now off the dream list of the McCain campaign. More interestingly, most top people inside the McCain campaign now think Colorado is gone.
Iowa and New Mexico were always the most likely Bush states to go blue this year and adding them to all of the Kerry states would give Barack Obama 264 electoral votes. Add Colorado's 9 EVs, then he's over the top with 273 EVs. So clearly, McCain knows he needs to take one of Kerry's states away from Barack Obama. According to King, that showdown state will be Pennsylvania.
While many people think Obama's margin in Pennsylvania is somewhat deceiving (Pollster has him up more than 15%) I tend to agree with Chris Bowers who considers the 7 most crucial states to be Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Bowers' conclusion:
Specifically, McCain must sweep these states in order to win the election. Right now, however, Obama holds leads in all seven, and only North Carolina is smaller than a 3% lead.
Update [2008-10-20 21:11:40 by Todd Beeton]:OK, so let's throw McCain a bone and concede Pennsylvania's 21 EVs to him. What would Obama have to do to win?
O: Kerry states + IA + NM + CO - PA =
M: all others = 281 286
All Barack would have to do to win without PA in this scenario is win a state (or a combination of states) worth
13 18 electoral votes. As you can see, that would not be terribly difficult, as winning any of the following alone would still put Obama over the top:
Virginia (13) + Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15) + Nevada (5)
Virginia (13) + Missouri (11)
North Carolina (15) + Missouri (11)
In other words, even winning Pennsylvania requires McCain to essentially run the battleground state table. Of course, if McCain does win Pennsylvania, it's likely these others would follow but still, the point here is that McCain's "best case scenario" is really not good.
[editor's note, by Todd Beeton]Fixed. My Kerry state count mistakenly originally counted Nevada.