Tracking Poll Update: The Race Begins to Tighten
by Jonathan Singer, Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 10:12:56 AM EDT
Here are today's numbers:
With two thirds of the day's polling in the field after Wednesday night's presidential debate, we're getting a clearer picture of where the race stands a little over two weeks from election day, and from te looks of it the race may be tightening a bit -- not a lot, but a bit. Barack Obama's average lead, which had been about 7 percentage points ahead of the debate, now stands at closer to 5.5 percentage points.
A few things to note about these overall numbers. First, Obama's lead is still significant, and John McCain is still having real difficulty climbing about 45 percent in national numbers. What's more, the electoral college actually looks worse for McCain than the popular vote spread. Second, it's been nearly a month since McCain has led in national polling. Finally, it's worth pointing out that although Gallup's likely voter numbers are tight, its polling among registered voters actually shows a larger lead for Obama than yesterday, with little movement over the last five days (Obama at 50 percent, plus or minus a point, and McCain at 42 percent or 43 percent).
One last note, along with a picture: 100,000 in St. Louis is a lot.