Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4941
Gallup5043
Rasmussen Reports5145
Research 2000/dKos5340
Average:50.7542.25

Again today there appears to be slight movement, though the overall average looks much the same as it has for more than two weeks, with Barack Obama pulling in between 49.25 and 51.25 percent of the vote and John McCain pulling in between 41.75 and 43.00 percent. The last 15 days, in fact, have been among the most calm in the polling during the general election, with very little, if any, real movement in the national polling (even as the state-by-state polling has caught up and Obama has jumped to a major electoral college lead). None of this is good for the McCain campaign.

Feel free to consider this a thread on the state of the race, as well as a general open thread... What's on your mind?

Tags: Open Thread, Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

30 Comments

Obama by six in Zogby

as well; so there was movement for Obama in Zogby.  It's a telephone poll now, so it's legitimate or at least more legitimate than the internet polls that he produced.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-12 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama by six in Zogby

Actually, there was movement for Obama in R2K, too.  But I think overall, the data suggests a very stable race.  If it means that people have made up their minds, it makes me happy indeed.

by Beltway Dem 2008-10-12 12:37PM | 0 recs
Very few?

On what basis do you make that conclusion.  I agree that this thing is close to over and the real discussion is whether it will be a close win or a big win, but if you have any support for your proposition, please provide it because I'm not sure if that sentiment is accurate.

The weird thing about this election is that Obama's electoral efficiency could keep us up fairly late on November 4th but there won't be as much drama as people think if things stay where they are.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-12 12:47PM | 0 recs
Well, 10-20% of the electorate

doesn't strike me as very few then.  I actually would put it the percentage of the electorate at 10-15% as well who make up their minds in the final two weeks.

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-12 05:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Is there anyone in the country that truly believes John McCain is going to win now? Even his supporters seem to be shifting from denial into the anger phase of grief.

Meanwhile, Obama keeps moving, keeps pushing, and the more he pushes, the more chances he has of an absolute landslide. Everyone likes a hard worker. At this point, the question becomes what we're going to do after November 5th, and I'm glad to hear that Obama is discussing a stimulus package with House leaders. He doesn't have any time to relax, at least not at first.

by vcalzone 2008-10-12 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Actually, some supporters are even moving into bargaining... "Do we really want an Democratic president AND congress? Maybe we should push for divided government."

by vcalzone 2008-10-12 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

At this rate, they'll be hitting depression right around November 4th. Just in time to stay home and provide an absolute landslide.

by vcalzone 2008-10-12 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

There has to be a stimulus package. It must include an increase in the FMAP as well. Otherwise, it is not going to matter how large Obama's win is. This is also the reason why whole concept of voting to balance the branches of the government is wrong. It doesn't work when you have obstructionist Republicans in the way. Even real people in Red states are being hurt because Republicans have been able to thwart the efforts of Democrats to pass a stimulus bill. If McCain continues to resist a stimulus package with FMAP for Main Street and people who live on it, his numbers will actually start to decline even further. For Rebulicans to be talking about deregulation and fiscal responsibility in the same breath, while Main Street suffers is the ultimate hypocrisy.

by Jeter 2008-10-12 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

This is the main thing that worries me:
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?arti cle=will_the_novemeber_surprise_be_disen franchised_voters

I still remember that sinking feeling I got while sitting in my local Dem office back in 04, hearing about the insanely long lines in Ohio. I can't help but feel that the Obama campaign has got to be prepared for the GOP's voter suppression shenanigans though.

by highway 61 2008-10-12 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

They are... so is the DNC... they are not publicizing it 'cos simply talking about it has a suppressive effect, but the DNC is setting up a massive organization to fight suppression...  Several Obama campaign folk have said something similar with Obama but remain hush about the details...

There will not be long lines in Ohio, that is for sure... Jennifer Brunner will see to that!

by LordMike 2008-10-12 02:48PM | 0 recs
So Clinton seems to adopt the McCain

cannot win without stealing a blue state narrative today:

"If we can pull a big vote out of northeastern Pennsylvania for Barack and Joe, there isn't any way they lose Pennsylvania, and if they win Pennsylvania there's no way they lose the White House!"

Of course, she could be saying this to fire people up but she could also be hinting that Obama's lead in Colorado is insurmountable at this point and that's why McCain and Palin are spending a decent amount of time on "offense" (they are both back in PA this Tuesday).

by Blazers Edge 2008-10-12 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: So Clinton seems to adopt the McCain
It just seems that McCain is wasting a lot
of time in Pennsylvania.  Are they seeing something we're not seeing?
by esconded 2008-10-12 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: So Clinton seems to adopt the McCain

If Obama takes Iowa and New Mexico and holds all the Kerry states, any other toss-up state gives Obama the election.  

Playing Pennsylvania is McCain's slender hope of winning; e.g., he can then lose Colorado and Virginia and still win the election.  Without Pennsylvania McCain is dead meat.  Going after Pennsylvania is McCain's best option out of a bunch of bad ones.   Fwiw, that calculus also plays into him campaigning in Iowa...an even more foolhardy choice, imo.

by InigoMontoya 2008-10-12 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Also interesting - every poll in the RCP average today has at least a 6 point lead.  My prediction since last spring has be a solid 4-6 point win, so if he can maintain this kind of lead it will look very good.  Can't take the foot off the gas, though.  Have to keep working, and get those early votes in.

by LanceS 2008-10-12 01:22PM | 0 recs
A good lead

If Obama has a lead of five or better going into the last debate, McCain will have little choice but to try to upset the race with some Big Drama move.  It will be more obviously desperate than his prior Big Drama moves, but that won't stop the corporate press/media from behaving as if it were sober and serious.  

If there is so much as a one point move up by McCain, the narrative going into the debate will be "McCain closing gap as doubts about Ayers rise."

You can count on the corporate press/media to do anything and everything to make this a closer race.

by James Earl 2008-10-12 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: A good lead

You are so on the spot today.  CNN has a headline about McCain gaining in Ohio, because their "poll of polls" has it going from a 4 point Obama lead to a 3 point lead.  Apparently they are unaware that a 1 point change amounts to nothing more than statistical noise.  Plus, the only reason their average is so close is that thy include the two polls showing McCain ahead in their 4 poll average, including the doubtful ARG poll.

So you're right, the media is so focused on pretending this is still a close race that they'll exaggerate anything.

by LanceS 2008-10-12 05:04PM | 0 recs
Gallup

The one poll showing a tightening is Gallup, but I think an RV sample at this stage is a bit more volatile.

Rasmussen has been really stable for over two weeks now.  Still I'm worried about that final debate Wednesday night.

by esconded 2008-10-12 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup

I'm not... McCain was literally panicking last week, imagine the pressure he is feeling now!

by LordMike 2008-10-12 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup

What is the final debate about? Obama has increased his lead after all three debates so far. Anything McCain throws out there is going to be either an erratic, grasping at anything "new" proposal that demonstrates that he really doesn't know what he is talking about. At this point McCain has disgusted fiscal conservatives, freaked out the non-lunatic fringe of his religious right base and has whipped up ugly sentiments that do nothing to help anyone in this country. What can he say? Apologize and ask that his campaign be redeemed? Great for him that people recognize we all have human weaknesses. We also have a big country to lead and Obama has clearly shown he has the goods.  

by Jeter 2008-10-12 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup

Final debate is domestic policies. So this will mean abortion, gay marriage, drugs, and all sorts of other stuff that Obama will have to tapdance around while McCain gets to stand clear.

Also, it's a seated debate, which may or may not send Obama back into "let's have a discussion" mode. Hopefully he's doing enough prep for it.

by vcalzone 2008-10-12 04:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111064/Gallup -Daily-ObamaMcCain-Gap-Narrows.aspx

This worries me. Not the RV, but the two LV models.

Negative attacks usually work. McCain/Palin has been up to despicable acts against Obama, and I will be shocked if it does not buy them a few points in these polls going forward.

McCain is going to throw as much mud at Obama in this final debate as he can get away with. If Obama emerges unscathed we have a great chance to win.

by vermillion 2008-10-12 04:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement
Jerome would enjoy seeing the 2004-based LV outcome.  The other one is in line with Rasmussen.
BTW, Nate Silver says Obama has a 94.1% chance of winning.
by esconded 2008-10-12 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenumbers/2008 /10/attack-blowback.html

Ok, this is some good news. We will see how the final poll results look after midnight.

I hope I have to eat crow!

by vermillion 2008-10-12 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Zogby: 48%Obama-44%McCain for release Monday.

This is after a six point difference this morning with Obama holding a 21 point lead among independents.

Something is going on and it scares the hell out of me...

by vermillion 2008-10-12 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Looking at Zogby's tracker, it may be independents
trending back to an 8-10% edge there.

This is going to be close in the end.

by esconded 2008-10-12 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Consider this from the 96 election:

Final results on election day:
Bill Clinton (Democrat)                  47,402,357                 49.24          

Bob Dole (Republican)                    39,198,755                 40.71    

Gallup poll results:

Clinton: 57%  Dole 34% Oct 10-11

Clinton: 51%  Dole 38% Oct 9-10

Not trying to be negative, but realistic. I think there will be a "Bradley effect" come election day, so Obama needs to be up in the final polls about 6-10 points to win this thing.

If a "Good ole white boy" like Clinton was up by 23 points in the Gallup poll at this point in the game and then won by only eight points on election day then if the current Gallup results are even close to being accurate we are in big, big trouble.

by vermillion 2008-10-12 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

RASMUSSEN MONDAY: OBAMA 50%, MCCAIN 45%...

by vermillion 2008-10-12 07:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

Please read Rassmussen rather than fall for the Drudge headline saying it's such a big deal.

Today was O-51, M-45
In the report is says "This is the seventeenth straight day that Obama's support has stayed in the very narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% "

So basically, not much difference.  The Gallup LV model is a little odd, and the Zogby poll for tomorrow which Drudge says is a big deal is the same margin from Friday.  

There is certainly no state polling showing a trend for McCain.  Unless something drastic happens, things will probably tighten up a bit, but as long as we stay at 49-50% we should be fine.

by neko608 2008-10-12 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

"Please read Rassmussen rather than fall for the Drudge headline saying it's such a big deal.

Today was O-51, M-45
In the report is says "This is the seventeenth straight day that Obama's support has stayed in the very narrow range from 50% to 52% while McCain has been at 44% of 45% "

So basically, not much difference.  The Gallup LV model is a little odd, and the Zogby poll for tomorrow which Drudge says is a big deal is the same margin from Friday.  

There is certainly no state polling showing a trend for McCain.  Unless something drastic happens, things will probably tighten up a bit, but as long as we stay at 49-50% we should be fine."

I read ALL of the polls in high detail every day. I CANNOT STAND MATT DRUDGE, but he usually has accurate info on his website hours before it is officially released, at least as far as polls go.

The new Rasmussen numbers are not too bad as we are still at 50% with a five point lead, but
the two polls that really disturb me are Zogby and Gallup. Zogby had this race starting to open up for Obama and within less than 24 hours Obama loses 2 full points???

Gallup is worrisome because of the 96 race as I mentioned before. McCain sucks but is not the major disaster that was Bob Dole's campaign in 1996.

by vermillion 2008-10-12 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Not Much Movement

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politi cs/story?id=6017487&page=1

As I responded in another thread, I will eat a pile of crows if this poll pans out on election day.

Tears of joy will be hard to hold back...I could not be more serious.

by vermillion 2008-10-12 08:18PM | 0 recs

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